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inzone
02-22-2010, 20:00
My cousin is a CPA and does a lot of auditing for the banking industry. He is telling me that he is seeing some very strange behavior at high levels of the banking industry.... big banks are starting to have their legal departments prepare all kinds of disclaimers for customers and a whole lotta CYA behavior is going on. This is just a heads up...I am probing for more info out there if anyone else is getting any intel..... ostensibly there are some problems leaking out of FDIC and VERY large amounts of money is being moved around by the Chinese and other foreign sovereign funds. My cousin thinks it spells really bad # 10 trouble.... p.s. if you dont think I have enough detail then, respectfully, help us all out by telling us what info you are hearing.... I am just tired of being blind sided like we all were when the subprime/stock meltdown hit us.....

j-glock22
02-22-2010, 20:12
Something to keep an ear to the ground for sure... interesting

BigKid
02-22-2010, 20:19
Especially on the heals of Citibank announcing that they could initiate 7 day holds on all withdrawals. I'm gettin a tad worried...

G29Reload
02-22-2010, 20:28
Just an uneducated guess, but if the Chinese and other outsiders start feeling too dicey to hold onto our currency, we'd have to sweeten the deal to keep them borrowing our worthless toilet paper:

Raise interest rates.


It happened the other day...they raised one of the interbank rates by a quarter. Not earthshaking, but look to see if it becomes a trend.

When it comes to preps, financial is part of it. Those of you so able should increase your aboveground (hands on) cash. Whether its an EMP attack and a freezing up of electronic banking, or a declared bank holiday to prevent a panic run, it would helpful to keep 1-3 months of living expenses, in a safe deposit box or a safe at home.

certifiedfunds
02-22-2010, 21:34
Whether its an EMP attack and a freezing up of electronic banking, or a declared bank holiday to prevent a panic run, it would helpful to keep 1-3 months of living expenses, in a safe deposit box or a safe at home.

If any of your scenarios occur, a SDB is not hands-on cash.

.357 Glocker
02-22-2010, 22:00
There are so many bad scenarios that could play out in the near future and so few good ones. The Chinese could decide to dump our debt on the open market and that would likely lead to an overnight collapse of the USD. I don't think they will do it because there is a substantial short term downside for them (they lose a crap-load of money) but it could happen.

The Fed could start raising interest rates substantially to protect the USD from collapse. This will have to happen sooner or later but think they will resist it to the bitter end because it would exploded the interest payments on an already barely manageable national dept and also lead to a catastrophic collapse in the housing market (among other things).

The USD could just collapse for a whole laundry list of reasons and the Fed could completely lose control of interest rates. at any rate the odds of major badness in occuring is rather large at the moment.

G29Reload
02-22-2010, 22:29
If any of your scenarios occur, a SDB is not hands-on cash.

Well its one thing to say the tellers are closed. Blocking people from their personal posessions is kind of extreme.

OTOH, nothing would surprise me anymore, so I do both. Split the risk, if you will.

9mm +p+
02-22-2010, 22:56
1-3 months of living cash on hand?? That is completely unrealistic for 95% of us, myself included. If it goes down like this alot of folks are boned and we will start seeing all of the stuff we've feared coming true...

certifiedfunds
02-22-2010, 23:03
http://i263.photobucket.com/albums/ii123/jeffmot/bank2.jpg

http://i263.photobucket.com/albums/ii123/jeffmot/bank.jpg

http://i263.photobucket.com/albums/ii123/jeffmot/BankClosure.png

Doors appear to be locked.

G29Reload
02-23-2010, 00:09
Well, yeah, but you don't know if they made separate arrangements for box holders.

Look, I just wanna get get grandmas ring out for the wedding,

Selling a car and I need the title...

etc, etc.

No point in telling folks they cant have their stuff. Look,we're closed but we'll be open on Sat from 9-12 for SDB's.

No tellers.

Actually, more recent experience with this (MD S&L crisis, mid 80s) they were starting to get runs on institutions, so what they did was limit withdrawals to 3k a week, or something like that. Smart, let people cover the bulk of their activities, money continued to flow but shut off the stampede and avoid the psyops problem of locked doors.

It worked out as I recall.

WilyCoyote
02-23-2010, 00:19
How does this effect things like online bill pay and direct deposit. Would your money still be accessable? Work puts money directly in, can u still pay bills via check or through cyberspace?

lawman800
02-23-2010, 00:40
Interesting... might be worth it to start pulling out cash in small increments to build up a reserve.

CrazyFeet
02-23-2010, 07:45
Look it is definitely time to move cash up the priority list. hopefully you have some type of savings account or a budget or something if not well things might be rough but you have to start putting away some cash. sacrifice a little bit everywhere else to pocket a few extra bucks and put it between the mattress or gun safe or fire box or dig a hole in your back yard but do something.

do it now incase it is to late next month.. worst thing is that you save money on ATM fees and gas going to get your cash out of the bank.

Aceman
02-23-2010, 07:50
And of course - the original post is not a Chinese plot. They would NEVER use the intarwebs to sow dissent....

Honestly - if I'm a megabank etc....I'm pulling your user info/ip, finding your brother in law and he'll be MIA by Monday. I'm sure he'll be thrilled you outed him on the web.

certifiedfunds
02-23-2010, 07:55
Look it is definitely time to move cash up the priority list. hopefully you have some type of savings account or a budget or something if not well things might be rough but you have to start putting away some cash. sacrifice a little bit everywhere else to pocket a few extra bucks and put it between the mattress or gun safe or fire box or dig a hole in your back yard but do something.

do it now incase it is to late next month.. worst thing is that you save money on ATM fees and gas going to get your cash out of the bank.

What if next month the .gov announces a formal devaluation of the currency?

What if they don't announce it, but the currency gets devalued 30 or 50% by a policy action?

whogasak47
02-23-2010, 07:58
Interesting... might be worth it to start pulling out cash in small increments to build up a reserve.

Outstanding Observation. In 1929 if you had $5 grand in _____ National Bank the day before the music stopped, you had 5 thousand Dollars. The next day $0.00. The Fortunate few that had $ 5000.00 socked away at home the day after effectively became rich, due to the fact they could pay CASH, for goods and services. My grandfather was like that and bought a 240 acre block of good farm land for $240.. cause had had the cash to back up his bid. Grandparents were also a strong believer of silver dollar coins. They tended to solve many small transactions. Paper was not trusted for a long time after 1930.

rwrjr
02-23-2010, 08:22
What if next month the .gov announces a formal devaluation of the currency?

What if they don't announce it, but the currency gets devalued 30 or 50% by a policy action?

I don't think they could pull off a formal devaluation simply because the dollar is currently the reserve currency of the world and because of the shear size of the problem. A formal devaluation would literally shock the world and cause the financial markets to tank. Also, what's to stop everybody else from flipping the bird back our way with a counter devaluation?

Now policy actions to generate devaluation, whether through inflationary measures or other means is exactly what they're going for. This screws all who saved and rewards the risk takers, especially the Wall Street banksters and their K Street henchmen.

eb07
02-23-2010, 08:24
See Argentina.....

rwrjr
02-23-2010, 08:31
Oh, and the next round of bank runs won't be people lining up at teller windows. It will be electronic transfers baby. If a bank, or set of banks, is weak and this becomes common knowledge, they can literally be bled dry overnight.

When my bank, which was one of the stellar banks during the S&L crisis, showed how shaky it was this go around I was able to move every dollar from three different accounts to a solid credit union with just a few clicks.

Hmm, makes me wonder if the new Citibank policy is for this sort of electronic run. I know if I had money in Citi it wouldn't be there for much longer. I'm just saying...

certifiedfunds
02-23-2010, 09:19
I don't think they could pull off a formal devaluation simply because the dollar is currently the reserve currency of the world and because of the shear size of the problem. A formal devaluation would literally shock the world and cause the financial markets to tank. Also, what's to stop everybody else from flipping the bird back our way with a counter devaluation?

Now policy actions to generate devaluation, whether through inflationary measures or other means is exactly what they're going for. This screws all who saved and rewards the risk takers, especially the Wall Street banksters and their K Street henchmen.

My point is, if you're holding a bunch of cash, either above or below ground, they don't necessarily have to have a bank holiday to steal your money. And FDIC insured money is the safest money in the world. Depositors WILL get their money, dollar for dollar.

Question then becomes "What value will it have?"

So what could you hold in place of a portion of your cash to prevent this?

rwrjr
02-23-2010, 09:36
My point is, if you're holding a bunch of cash, either above or below ground, they don't necessarily have to have a bank holiday to steal your money. And FDIC insured money is the safest money in the world. Depositors WILL get their money, dollar for dollar.

Question then becomes "What value will it have?"

So what could you hold in place of a portion of your cash to prevent this?

I see where you're going. Damn good questions. My wife and I discuss this all the time and I'm afraid I don't have the answer.

marlinfan
02-23-2010, 10:05
So what could you hold in place of a portion of your cash to prevent this?tangibles are a small part of my retirement and savings plans...... pm's, real estate, cash, plus the regular old investments(401k, IRA) all balanced.

crimsonaudio
02-23-2010, 10:39
Ugh...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- More than 700 banks, or nearly one out of every 11, are at risk of going under, according to a government report published Tuesday.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said that the number of banks on its so-called "problem list" climbed to 702, its highest level since June 1993.
<!-- REAP --><!--startclickprintexclude-->
The number of banks under scrutiny by regulators has moved steadily higher since the recession began. Just 76 financial institutions were on the list in the fourth quarter of 2007.
More here: http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/23/news/companies/fdic_list/index.htm?hpt=T2

farmer-dave
02-23-2010, 10:50
So what could you hold in place of a portion of your cash to prevent this?

Isn't that why the funds buy commodities. I hold mine in grain.

G29Reload
02-23-2010, 10:56
How does this effect things like online bill pay and direct deposit. Would your money still be accessable? Work puts money directly in, can u still pay bills via check or through cyberspace?

All that would likely remain unchanged. Checks and drafts initiated electronically just go from one bank to another for payment.

It's cash withdrawals where cold hard green leaves an institution and the system to go into your pockets that they worry about.

The dynamic here is slightly different then in '29. I don't beleive checking accounts were as common then. More stuff worked on cash.

lawman800
02-23-2010, 11:00
Where are you going to electronically transfer your money to that you can still access from here? Get it out in hard currency is the only alternative I see.

Wonder if Credit Unions will still be okay. I keep a chunk in there just in case.

G29Reload
02-23-2010, 11:07
Interesting... might be worth it to start pulling out cash in small increments to build up a reserve.

Smart, I've been doing it for years.

No matter who you are, unless you are dirt poor in which case you have other problems, there is no excuse for not doing the following:

Every payday, take one more $20 out of the ATM and put it in an envelope. YOU WILL NOT MISS IT!

That's if you're paid weekly. If bi-weekly, make it two. Even if you're really cranking it out it still helps...make it a $50 occasionally.

Tuck the envelope in your gun safe.

This will become frustrating if you're into instant gratification. But, over time you will have quite a stack. End of the year, about a grand. Holly s#$% look at that fat stack!

Even if times are tough and you dodge intermittent unemployment, you can still end up with half that.

If you get to the end of the year without caving to greed, seal the envelope and shove it into the back of the safe.

Start a new envelope!

Been doing it for years now. A months' living expenses aint a problem.

This isn't rocket science, but some folks do have a problem with discipline. Get started, DO IT NOW and in time you'll be surprised. Just don't cave to the impulse to blow it all.

G29Reload
02-23-2010, 11:20
Oh, and the next round of bank runs won't be people lining up at teller windows. It will be electronic transfers baby. If a bank, or set of banks, is weak and this becomes common knowledge, they can literally be bled dry overnight.

When my bank, which was one of the stellar banks during the S&L crisis, showed how shaky it was this go around I was able to move every dollar from three different accounts to a solid credit union with just a few clicks.

Hmm, makes me wonder if the new Citibank policy is for this sort of electronic run. I know if I had money in Citi it wouldn't be there for much longer. I'm just saying...

Electronic transfers aren't and cannot be a bank run. Even if a particular institution is targeted, an electronic transfer goes from one institution to another. It is only when MONEY EXITS THE SYSTEM (cash W/D) that there's a run.

That's one thing that scares me...the gov't outlawing CASH. The E-system we have may someday facilitate that. Talk about putting a bite on crime...and crime will be the excuse. Imagine every transaction being recorded for all time. THERE's a Big Brother scenario from hell. Then again, barter of some sort will always exist.

G29Reload
02-23-2010, 11:23
Where are you going to electronically transfer your money to that you can still access from here? Get it out in hard currency is the only alternative I see.

Wonder if Credit Unions will still be okay. I keep a chunk in there just in case.

Theres only two kinds of transactions...cash and electronic. You don;t electronically transfer it to yourself unless there really is a chip in your head:supergrin:.

You withdraw it. Now, while you can. That's it.

CU's are prolly under the same rules as banks. They'll name em in the same press release. No escape there.

PlasticGuy
02-23-2010, 11:38
I don't see the federal reserve running out of paper. They can print more "money" whenever they want. That though would create issues with the value of "money". I have opted to turn most of my savings into stocks, commodities, and tangible assets. Their value in dollars should rise as the value of the dollar decreases (in the long term, anyway). It seems like the safer option right now.

Of course, I have the luxury of being young. I've got another 25+ years until I have to worry about retirement, and I have as close to 100% job security as is possible. My only concern is the best way to ride out the storm, and to avoid the temptation to make long term mistakes due to short term economic fluctuations.

rwrjr
02-23-2010, 12:19
Ugh...

More here: http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/23/news/companies/fdic_list/index.htm?hpt=T2

Reinstate mark-to-market and enforce reporting rules, capital requirements and REO limits and the number of banks "in trouble" would likely pass 2,000.

certifiedfunds
02-23-2010, 13:03
I don't see the federal reserve running out of paper. They can print more "money" whenever they want. That though would create issues with the value of "money". I have opted to turn most of my savings into stocks, commodities, and tangible assets. Their value in dollars should rise as the value of the dollar decreases (in the long term, anyway). It seems like the safer option right now.

Of course, I have the luxury of being young. I've got another 25+ years until I have to worry about retirement, and I have as close to 100% job security as is possible. My only concern is the best way to ride out the storm, and to avoid the temptation to make long term mistakes due to short term economic fluctuations.

How do you define short term?

What if we're a decade or more before this stuff gets sorted out and assets get revalued? Coming off of the greatest bull market in history, what do you anticipate moving forward?

CrazyFeet
02-23-2010, 13:08
What if next month the .gov announces a formal devaluation of the currency?

What if they don't announce it, but the currency gets devalued 30 or 50% by a policy action?



well then you would be just as screwed as if you had it in the bank.

Im still in favor of buying long term goods.. diversifying and all that but i think more and more that cash on hand should get bumped up in your priorities. many 'preppers' slack in the area of having x amount of days cash on hand.. some say 1 month some say 3.. but i bet a lot of people who have 30 days of food / water dont have anywhere near that much cash on hand.

obviously silver/gold TP food ammo are all other areas that you can use your cash to transfer your wealth and use has a hedge against the devaluation of our currency.

so i see where you are going.. i would also recommend then that people also diversify there 'savings' budget into other areas then us dollars.

CrazyFeet
02-23-2010, 13:11
thanks for adding that btw :) got me thinking more and more!

certifiedfunds
02-23-2010, 14:08
thanks for adding that btw :) got me thinking more and more!

There is no single good answer, is there?

Best you can hope for is to pay attention, stay informed, THINK and place your bets. No one is going to be unscathed if such things happen. Best thing you can hope for is to be well dressed.

CrazyFeet
02-23-2010, 15:00
It really is a matter of covering as many scenarios as possible and preparing as best you can.

The more information you have the better you can prioritize your resources.

lawman800
02-23-2010, 16:54
Smart, I've been doing it for years.

No matter who you are, unless you are dirt poor in which case you have other problems, there is no excuse for not doing the following:

Every payday, take one more $20 out of the ATM and put it in an envelope. YOU WILL NOT MISS IT!

That's if you're paid weekly. If bi-weekly, make it two. Even if you're really cranking it out it still helps...make it a $50 occasionally.

Tuck the envelope in your gun safe.

This will become frustrating if you're into instant gratification. But, over time you will have quite a stack. End of the year, about a grand. Holly s#$% look at that fat stack!

Even if times are tough and you dodge intermittent unemployment, you can still end up with half that.

If you get to the end of the year without caving to greed, seal the envelope and shove it into the back of the safe.

Start a new envelope!

Been doing it for years now. A months' living expenses aint a problem.

This isn't rocket science, but some folks do have a problem with discipline. Get started, DO IT NOW and in time you'll be surprised. Just don't cave to the impulse to blow it all.

That's the system I have been using everytime I get some cash, it's socked away. Cash never goes into the bank, only my pay which is direct deposit and other checks or transfers go to the bank. All cash go straight into the vault. I also take out what I can everytime I go to the bank to sock more into the cash holdings.

I'll take my chances with the 3% depreciation on cash money versus leaving some in the bank.

lawman800
02-23-2010, 16:55
There is no single good answer, is there?

Best you can hope for is to pay attention, stay informed, THINK and place your bets. No one is going to be unscathed if such things happen. Best thing you can hope for is to be well dressed.

I plan on wearing my tuxedo and top hat to the bread line.

Lone Hunter
02-23-2010, 17:59
I don't see 1-3 months of living expenses as that big a nut. Really unless your fresh out of school. Me maybe 2k a month food,mortage,heat ,light and phone ,pocket money etc .

So 2-6 k .

I made savings a top priority of my preparedness.

Its allowed me to own land,pay my kids way through college have almost no debt.Buy cool guns and custom knives !

jdavionic
02-23-2010, 18:00
See Argentina.....

First off, welcome new member!

Secondly, I find it interesting that this example seems to be routinely ignored. We are in a bad spot with respect to our economy, runaway debt, and worse yet...debt to nations that don't particularily care for us.

rj1939
02-23-2010, 18:29
China has stopped buying our debt and not only that, they have started dumping some of what they have. Check it for yourself, the info is on the investment pages.
Japan is now our biggest buyer.......again, check the money pages.

Just last year, the Euro was going to be the only currency left standing, now it is considered to be on borrowed time, what a difference a year makes.

Available cash will be king, having to rely on a bank is not a good idea.

whogasak47
02-23-2010, 19:03
Japan is now our biggest buyer.......again, check the money pages.

Available cash will be king, having to rely on a bank is not a good idea.


And look how our fearless leaders are embarrassing Mr. Toyoda and Toyota.jp

racerford
02-23-2010, 19:29
If the US dollar is so worthless, why does China still peg their exchange rate to the US Dollar? Why have they not decreased the exchange rate to show the increased relative value to the US Dollar?

Why have they not allow the Yuan to float against all currencies?

G29Reload
02-23-2010, 19:30
I'll take my chances with the 3% depreciation on cash money versus leaving some in the bank.

...and only losing 2.75%!!!

That's one thing that makes it even easier to have money out of the bank. They're paying so little interest, the only value added is the alarm system and extra concrete.

Plus, bank doesn't have a 24 hr armed guard. :supergrin:

certifiedfunds
02-23-2010, 19:50
If the US dollar is so worthless, why does China still peg their exchange rate to the US Dollar? Why have they not decreased the exchange rate to show the increased relative value to the US Dollar?

Why have they not allow the Yuan to float against all currencies?

1. As messed up as our situation is, the dollar is still the most stable fiat currency on the globe.

2. With the U.S. being their largest customer, being measured against the dollar is paramount.

But then you already knew the answer. :supergrin:

racerford
02-23-2010, 20:12
1. As messed up as our situation is, the dollar is still the most stable fiat currency on the globe.

2. With the U.S. being their largest customer, being measured against the dollar is paramount.

But then you already knew the answer. :supergrin:

Yes, I did. :supergrin:

I do have a question, what currency is not a fiat currency? Are there any major currencies that are not fiat?

certifiedfunds
02-23-2010, 20:18
Yes, I did. :supergrin:

I do have a question, what currency is not a fiat currency? Are there any major currencies that are not fiat?

I don't know of any country with hard money. I felt obligated to qualify currencies as fiat vs gold and silver.

Are you leading me somewhere for a smackdown?:tongueout:

lawman800
02-23-2010, 21:36
...and only losing 2.75%!!!

That's one thing that makes it even easier to have money out of the bank. They're paying so little interest, the only value added is the alarm system and extra concrete.

Plus, bank doesn't have a 24 hr armed guard. :supergrin:

That's exactly the point. I am not losing much to a premier checking (.50% interest) and nothing to a regular checking (0% interest) account. The only thing I am actually making something is the credit union direct deposit special account which I get 5.5% for a limited amount of time each year.

Even then, it's only netting me a few hundred a year of taxed interest income, but it beats the net negative interest gains on the other useless accounts, including short term CDs.

racerford
02-23-2010, 23:24
I don't know of any country with hard money. I felt obligated to qualify currencies as fiat vs gold and silver.

Are you leading me somewhere for a smackdown?:tongueout:

No smackdown coming. Just a question, as many advocate doing it. As far as I can tell the last significant currency to have any gold convertability was the Swiss Franc in 2000. I was clooking for a curent example of how wonderul the gold standard (or a facimile thereof) is. I can't find one. Apparently, not one country is successful in making it work. I wonder why that is? I am sure there must a global conspiracy.:whistling:

lawman800
02-23-2010, 23:50
From what I have gathered in my travels, gold is truly a rare commodity and all the gold in the world wouldn't fill 3 Olympic sized swimming pools. Compare that to diamonds which is in reality, about as rare as any other semi-precious stone, or not really rare.

The sheer sizes of most country's GDP and GNP dictate that gold alone is not sufficient to represent what is out there. No country can really have enough gold to back what is out there in their economy and while I can't say that is what prompted the move, it makes sense that developing economies got away from the gold standard and moved to the fiat standard to index their currency.

However, I can be totally way off since it's been only 17 years since I last studied Monetary Theory and International Economics and I must admit, I wasn't paying 100% attention either. College academics can be tough sometimes if you are in a fraternity.

PlasticGuy
02-24-2010, 04:32
How do you define short term?

What if we're a decade or more before this stuff gets sorted out and assets get revalued? Coming off of the greatest bull market in history, what do you anticipate moving forward?
For my purposes, short term is up to 20 years. It will be at least 25 before I could retire, so I'm trying to not worry about the things that most people are worrying about. In fact, the reduced price of stocks should work in my favor.

My primary focus is buying stocks. If many people sell and I buy, it means I'm buying while the price is low. Given a couple of decades, the stock market should recover (most likely much sooner than that). when it does, I'll be in good shape. I know a lot of guys here think in terms of armegeddon, but I think this is just a big fluctuation in the market and it will recover in 5-10 years. I might be proven wrong, but that's my opinion.

Bilbo Bagins
02-24-2010, 10:31
For my purposes, short term is up to 20 years. It will be at least 25 before I could retire, so I'm trying to not worry about the things that most people are worrying about. In fact, the reduced price of stocks should work in my favor.

My primary focus is buying stocks. If many people sell and I buy, it means I'm buying while the price is low. Given a couple of decades, the stock market should recover (most likely much sooner than that). when it does, I'll be in good shape. I know a lot of guys here think in terms of armegeddon, but I think this is just a big fluctuation in the market and it will recover in 5-10 years. I might be proven wrong, but that's my opinion.

That is my plan as well. I bought 3 American Eagles between 2001 to 2003 when Gold was selling for around $300 an ounce. Then when it cracked above $1,000 I sold one of them and left the other two for my kids. With my 401k I went aggressively into stock when the Dow dropped down below 7500 and started to creep back up. Now that its above 10,000 again, I'm back on the more stable option.

PlasticGuy
02-24-2010, 12:41
That is my plan as well. I bought 3 American Eagles between 2001 to 2003 when Gold was selling for around $300 an ounce. Then when it cracked above $1,000 I sold one of them and left the other two for my kids. With my 401k I went aggressively into stock when the Dow dropped down below 7500 and started to creep back up. Now that its above 10,000 again, I'm back on the more stable option.
I think that is the right strategy. The guys who don't do well in the stock market are the guys who try to react to the market every time there's a ripple. Invest as much as you can, make sure it's diversified, and let it ride. It might be smart to shift it to more stable assets when retirement approaches, but that's about all the tinkering most people should do. The US dollar may take a dive, but the international stock market will do just fine in the long run.

certifiedfunds
02-24-2010, 13:30
I think that is the right strategy. The guys who don't do well in the stock market are the guys who try to react to the market every time there's a ripple. Invest as much as you can, make sure it's diversified, and let it ride. It might be smart to shift it to more stable assets when retirement approaches, but that's about all the tinkering most people should do. The US dollar may take a dive, but the international stock market will do just fine in the long run.


This is the absolute truth........in a bull market.

The strategy you defined was absolute gospel and backed up by the math from 1980 to circa 2000. Unfortunately, that economy is dead.

1 old 0311
02-24-2010, 16:29
Interesting. Monday the IMF announced it was selling ALL their gold reserves, 19 tons. I thought for sure there would be a big drop. The gold market barely moved.

Morris
02-25-2010, 02:56
Pent up demand driving sales of gold? Hence, no real drop? I dunno . . .

Anyway, my wife was an I.G. with the FDIC during the S&L debacle. She's pretty clear that she sees troubling signs in the system right now although she admits that there are some banks that were shaky from their founding and the market will shake out some of the lesser banks from the mess.

PlasticGuy
02-25-2010, 03:06
This is the absolute truth........in a bull market.

The strategy you defined was absolute gospel and backed up by the math from 1980 to circa 2000. Unfortunately, that economy is dead.
First of all, I disagree. The stock market has regular peaks and crashes. Some are higher or lower than others, but it is cyclic. Every generation thinks their crash is the end of everything, and they have always been wrong. I'm betting my money that this will follow the pattern.

However, let's say you're right. What is our alternative for investing? What investments are you making that are independent of the market?

Morris
02-25-2010, 03:34
What investments are you making that are independent of the market?

Hmm, well there was that full kitchen remodel my wife wanted . . . then I have invested in the Bank of my Auto Mechanic thanks to my not so trusty Saturn sport ute as of late . . . and then invested in the bank of my favorite FFL . . . :)

certifiedfunds
02-25-2010, 08:10
First of all, I disagree. The stock market has regular peaks and crashes. Some are higher or lower than others, but it is cyclic. Every generation thinks their crash is the end of everything, and they have always been wrong. I'm betting my money that this will follow the pattern.

However, let's say you're right. What is our alternative for investing? What investments are you making that are independent of the market?

No one knows what the future will bring. Your philosophy bets that the future will look like the past.

When considering the buy and hold, elegant diversification, Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fama French, Modern Portfolio Theory collective school if investing, consider the data used and whether the next 25 years will be like the last 25.

During the greatest equities bull market the world has ever seen, owning the whole market, dollar cost averaging and keeping expenses low was the winning strategy. Consider for a moment if someone had employed that strategy to the Nikkei in 1989. Has their risk been rewarded?

And, if you are determined to invest future funds based on the past performance, consider that twice in the last 100 years we've seen a Dow-Gold ratio at 1. Yet this crisis only got us down to about 6.

Cajunmudman
02-25-2010, 08:43
Interesting. Monday the IMF announced it was selling ALL their gold reserves, 19 tons. I thought for sure there would be a big drop. The gold market barely moved.

That is because central banks, especially India, China and Russia, are sanpping it up as it comes to market. This is a HUGE shift in mentallity from the past 30 years. Used to be these countries were irrelavent....now, well, Lets just say that when you dump 19 tons of gold on the market and nothing happens, something is really really different this time...

Cajunmudman
02-25-2010, 08:51
First of all, I disagree. The stock market has regular peaks and crashes. Some are higher or lower than others, but it is cyclic. Every generation thinks their crash is the end of everything, and they have always been wrong. I'm betting my money that this will follow the pattern.

However, let's say you're right. What is our alternative for investing? What investments are you making that are independent of the market?


You are right, every generation thinks that this is the BIG one. And IF hyperinflation kicks in, then you could very well see a DOW at 50,000. That being said.... what will the price of a loaf of bread be? If you can even get a gallon of gas, what will it cost.

By no means am I am expert, that being said... For over 100 years the DOW/Gold ratio has been stellar in predicting market tops and market bottoms. Also, bear market bottoms usually end when the P/E ratio of the Dow is between 5 -8 and div yieled is over 6%. Based on these historical numbers that have stood the test of time, we MAY be in for some ugly years.

But in the end NO ONE, except a few Goldman Sacks VPs, knows what will happen.

certifiedfunds
02-25-2010, 08:52
But in the end NO ONE, except a few Goldman Sacks VPs, knows what will happen.

QFTMFT

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

lawman800
02-25-2010, 09:27
Hmm, well there was that full kitchen remodel my wife wanted . . . then I have invested in the Bank of my Auto Mechanic thanks to my not so trusty Saturn sport ute as of late . . . and then invested in the bank of my favorite FFL . . . :)

HA! I beat you there with my investment wisdom!

I invested in the exterior of my house after tearing down all the dry rotted rafters, invested in a nice tow company after my BMW blew a tire on the freeway, invested in Bridgestone for a new tire, invested in a lot of new clothes that don't fit for my job, and invested in a guy I don't know because he had a nice AR for sale.

pugman
02-25-2010, 09:51
When my bank, which was one of the stellar banks during the S&L crisis, showed how shaky it was this go around I was able to move every dollar from three different accounts to a solid credit union with just a few clicks.

IMO, good advice right there.

My credit union is basically unaffected directly by the mortgage mess. The board of directors have turned down several offers to buy the credit union and they actually merged with another smaller one last year.

Then again they only write good paper...nothing even remote to shaky...and sell most of it off and only service the loans.

I talk with my banker at length at least once a month...in their entire portfolio they have 1...count it...1 foreclosure

Cajunmudman
02-25-2010, 10:52
Actually, the only safe banks are those that are NOT part of the Federal Reserve system, and that includes the S%L and cradit unions.

But, you are right, local S&Ls and CUs can be great

certifiedfunds
02-25-2010, 11:32
Actually, the only safe banks are those that are NOT part of the Federal Reserve system, and that includes the S%L and cradit unions.


Explain

G29Reload
02-25-2010, 11:52
All retail level money, banks, S&Ls and Credit Unions are under the FDIC and fed control regarding banks. Doesnt matter what you call them, they may specialize in certain areas but they all have to follow the same rules.

Been that way since the S&L crisis in the 80's.

The only difference is stock brokerages and they still have restrictions, just under a different alphabet-soup agency. SIPC or some crap like that instead of FDIC.

1 old 0311
02-25-2010, 12:08
All retail level money, banks, S&Ls and Credit Unions are under the FDIC and fed control regarding banks. Doesnt matter what you call them, they may specialize in certain areas but they all have to follow the same rules.

Been that way since the S&L crisis in the 80's.

The only difference is stock brokerages and they still have restrictions, just under a different alphabet-soup agency. SIPC or some crap like that instead of FDIC.


I THOUGHT S&L's and Credit Unions were still State regulated and insured.

PlasticGuy
02-25-2010, 15:48
...During the greatest equities bull market the world has ever seen, owning the whole market, dollar cost averaging and keeping expenses low was the winning strategy...
So your solution is to not invest in anything? Pay your bills and put the remainder of your cash under your mattress, so the value can drop as the value of the dollar falls?

If you've chosen to ignore history because you think we're moving down a completely different economic path now, what does your investment strategy now include?

Cajunmudman
02-25-2010, 15:53
So your solution is to not invest in anything? Pay your bills and put the remainder of your cash under your mattress, so the value can drop as the value of the dollar falls?

If you've chosen to ignore history because you think we're moving down a completely different economic path now, what does your investment strategy now include?


There is still the possability of deflation, so cash under the matress would actually work out.....

Histroy does repeat itself....

certifiedfunds
02-25-2010, 19:45
So your solution is to not invest in anything? Pay your bills and put the remainder of your cash under your mattress, so the value can drop as the value of the dollar falls?

If you've chosen to ignore history because you think we're moving down a completely different economic path now, what does your investment strategy now include?

I do not mean this in a confrontational manner. I'm trying to stimulate thought. So please read it in that light.

I never said my solution was to not invest in anything. What I said (insinuated) is that the investment models of the last 30 years are broken and may fail you going forward. As I said, "buy and hold, elegant diversification, long term investing, etc" may not work for the NEXT 30 years. You are looking backward and assuming that the next 30 will be like the last 30. They won't be.

Further, just because the broad U.S. stock market may suck eggs for a long time relative to other investments, doesn't mean there aren't investment opportunities elsewhere. WAGE, for instance, and all that that entails. BRIC. Some tech stocks.

Many contrarian economists believe we are witnessing the end of the old economy, much as we did in the 1930s. Assets need to be repriced and the Fed and government are fighting this. Only after they are repriced can the next economy be born.

As mentioned, twice since 1900 the Dow-Gold ratio has hit 1. Government interference has prevented this thus far, but it cannot be avoided. It still lies ahead before things truly start to improve.

As cajunmudman said, if we experience deflation, cash in the mattress may work out well. How would it have worked out in the 30s?


If you've chosen to ignore history because you think we're moving down a completely different economic path now, what does your investment strategy now include? I am not choosing to ignore history. Rather, I am choosing to consider ALL of it, including some aspects that an awful lot of folks like yourself don't seem to want to consider.

You may say that I may say, "Its different this time" while you say "Its not different this time. It never is."

I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying it is the same this time as it was the last time. We've got a nasty depression ahead of us, just like the 1930s (maybe worse), as this credit economy dies and the new economy is born. I take the position that the magnitude of the problems we're encountering continue to reveal themselves to be larger and further reaching than anyone anticipated 18, 24 months ago, remembering of course, that the Fed Chairman himself said that there was no problem in the housing market just before the crash that triggered the whole credit bubble to burst.

So with regard to history, since you mentioned it:

All fiat currencies in history have failed. The dollar will too, at some point. Is this the point?

All empires fall. The U.S. will too, at some point. Is this the point?

This whole mess is FAR from over. One of my most remembered quotes from the onset of this thing was by the Chief Technical Strategist for Citigroup: "Things are not just going back to normal after the magnitude of what they have done."

Without being too specific, I am fearful (as though you couldn't guess). At this point my personal porfolio consists of positions in natural gas, precious metals and CASH, since 10/09. The cash makes me uneasy and I have some changes in mind when certain things occur.

Then again I could be wrong. :rofl::tongueout:

(enter the haters who will call me a nutjob)

LongGun1
02-25-2010, 21:43
As I said, "buy and hold, elegant diversification, long term investing, etc" may not work for the NEXT 30 years. You are looking backward and assuming that the next 30 will be like the last 30. They won't be.


+1 :thumbsup:

Years ago...I took a "road less traveled"!

While many of those I know seemed to be living wayyy beyond their means..

..borrowing themselves to the hilt to "Keep up with the Jones"

..I buckled down & paid off debt.

Now...I pay cash for the things I want...

..including our 4th vehicle bought in late 2009 which was paid for in cash.

All 3 of my personal vehicles are mine...no notes...titles are in my safe!


My goal has to position us to be self-sufficient..

..while eliminating debt.

Debt = Slavery!


One side effect of this plan...

It allows for nice new toys each paycheck! ;) :supergrin:

And though I get 52 of those in a year..

(not including the wife's)

..I know the gravy train could end tomorrow..

..and prepare for that possibility!

I feel dark storm clouds are on the horizon..

..& feel the sub-prime crisis was simply a harbinger of what is to follow! :shocked:

G29Reload
02-25-2010, 21:55
I THOUGHT S&L's and Credit Unions were still State regulated and insured.

Was until the 80s crisis. MD had the MSLIC till it was wiped out by the Fed and replaced. All Fed now.

G29Reload
02-25-2010, 22:39
Then again I could be wrong. :rofl::tongueout:

(enter the haters who will call me a nutjob)

Bravissimo!!!

The only thing I would add is the old "Diversify and stay liquid".

Some holdings in gold,

Lots of cash, most in the bank, a decent allocation in the "mattresses" (your gun safe is fine)

Any investment in market instruments, bears watching daily,
-buy and hold is dead,
-be prepared to move everything to safety at a moment's notice,
-never hesitate to take profits

-canned goods,
-ammo.

STAY DEBT FREE!

certifiedfunds
02-25-2010, 23:04
Bravissimo!!!



product of Louisiana schools

G29Reload
02-25-2010, 23:16
product of Louisiana schools

ok don't let it go to your head,,,,:upeyes:

:wavey:

racerford
02-25-2010, 23:49
........
All fiat currencies in history have failed. ......

What is your definition of failed?

zysus
02-26-2010, 11:45
The classic solution is diversification. Aka, don't put all your eggs in one basket.

As soon as I am fully out of debt (student loans mostly) I plan on the following as it makes good sense (I think of these as investments):

1. A house with some land that I could grow stuff on. Most importantly, a house that can function off-the-grid. (solar/wind/water power, etc)

2. A small cash reserve (1-3 months). And I mean cold-hard greenbacks. Basically what I could afford to lose if the value tanks.

3. Gold coins/bullion. Buying continually each year. I doubt the value will ever decrease. It really hasn't in several thousand years.

4. SHTF room. (a list of stuff that I really want to have on hand at all times - just in case)

5. ATF (yes. Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ammo too)). Such things are highly useful as a means of barter. Amongst other purposes.

6. Retirement plan... 401k. If the market does well. Ok, if not, I should have other investments, like guns, land, raw materials, vehicles, etc.
(by vehicles I mean more than cars... a tractor is a useful thing to have)

7. A really good set of tools. More than just a snap-on rack. I mean like a bench-top mill, metal lathe, table saws, mig/tig welder, quality shop tools, and a good stock of raw metals. I like building stuff. What can I say...

8. Gasoline/Diesel/Oil. You can't overstate just how valuable fuel is when there isn't any to go around. Look at gas hitting $4/gal and we just kept on paying.

Other ideas?

The only thing I can't solve is what to do if things get really bad and the gov't starts kicking people out of their homes for non-payment of property taxes (like the 1930's).

Most of the above would likely let me live on my own indefinitely, even if unemployment hits 100% and all my non-physical investments tank so I end up 'broke' but with physical assets. But there is still that nagging property tax issue. (I guess you have to start liquidating assets at that point).

Doesn't sit well with me that you can however get taxed out of house and home. (literally)

wjv
02-26-2010, 16:21
2. A small cash reserve (1-3 months). And I mean cold-hard greenbacks. Basically what I could afford to lose if the value tanks.

If the value of the dollar tanks, you will be holding worthless dollars. .

I would do. .

2. A small cash reserve (1 month) PLUS 2+ months in Silver

3. Gold. . .

G29Reload
02-26-2010, 16:47
If the value of the dollar tanks, you will be holding worthless dollars. .


All the more reason why you should be holding 1-3 months if you can.

A devaluation, no matter how sudden, will not happen so quickly there won't be some lag time.

At the point it is obvious the money will head towards worthlessness, the game becomes turning it into something of value before it does.

Whatever inventory will be on the shelves will have been bought in earlier safer times and before restock comes in, buy it with what you have.

Food, clothes, guns, MORE AMMO, etc. Quickly convert your cash into something of worth or barter-able. Jerry jugs of gas, diesel, med supplies, things you'll need going forward. Even if you can't get everything you'll need, mitigate the damage. Don't buy that box of sphagetti, buy a case of it, etc. Liquor, even.

Heck, use your credit card too if you can.

lawman800
02-26-2010, 22:43
1. A house with some land that I could grow stuff on. Most importantly, a house that can function off-the-grid. (solar/wind/water power, etc)

2. A small cash reserve (1-3 months). And I mean cold-hard greenbacks. Basically what I could afford to lose if the value tanks.

3. Gold coins/bullion. Buying continually each year. I doubt the value will ever decrease. It really hasn't in several thousand years.

4. SHTF room. (a list of stuff that I really want to have on hand at all times - just in case)

5. ATF (yes. Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ammo too)). Such things are highly useful as a means of barter. Amongst other purposes.

6. Retirement plan... 401k. If the market does well. Ok, if not, I should have other investments, like guns, land, raw materials, vehicles, etc.
(by vehicles I mean more than cars... a tractor is a useful thing to have)

7. A really good set of tools. More than just a snap-on rack. I mean like a bench-top mill, metal lathe, table saws, mig/tig welder, quality shop tools, and a good stock of raw metals. I like building stuff. What can I say...

8. Gasoline/Diesel/Oil. You can't overstate just how valuable fuel is when there isn't any to go around. Look at gas hitting $4/gal and we just kept on paying.

Bicycle or other means of locomotion to conserve gas. Generator. Light source (candles, flashlight, lanterns, etc.). Sanitation/toiletries (toilet paper, soap, baby wipes, towels, feminine hygiene products, laundry powder, clothesline, toothpaste, etc.). Extra clothes for cold weather. Water purification or water making devices.

I plan on buying some solar showers and an alternative water heating source. People will pay for a good hot shower after a few days, I know I would. Anything that brings a bit of basic comfort and living standards back to the drudgery of everyday existence after TSHTF would become a luxury.

just a shooter
02-26-2010, 23:06
Well its one thing to say the tellers are closed. Blocking people from their personal posessions is kind of extreme.

OTOH, nothing would surprise me anymore, so I do both. Split the risk, if you will.

on bank holiday's the bank doors are locked. how are you going to get to your SDB?

lawman800
02-26-2010, 23:16
on bank holiday's the bank doors are locked. how are you going to get to your SDB?

Forget holidays, how about simply being before or after business hours (9am or 6pm here for most banks), Sundays, furlough days, etc. Shortened hours on Saturdays. Or even if they are open, what about that long line of people waiting to get to their SDB or other accounts? How long do you wait to get to your stuff when the whole neighborhood is waiting there to get theirs?

just a shooter
02-27-2010, 09:34
exactly.

never place ANYTHING you need under someone else's control.

banks and storage units are a bad place to put emergency supplies, money or guns/ammo..

you can lawfully be denied entry to most places you don't own or have legal standing, in times of crisis.

business's are public domain, but still private property and have the same right to deny you access as you do at your home.

unless you want to be part of a criminal mob and unlawfully break and enter.

these are the times I would not want to be anywhere near places like that for my own security.

G29Reload
02-27-2010, 13:10
business's are public domain, but still private property and have the same right to deny you access as you do at your home.



There is no reason for them to bar access to your private property. They have to make an allowance at some point for SDB owners. Its as easy as,

"look, if you need to get to your SDB, we will be open on Saturday for that purpose only. The Bank Holiday is in effect, and there will be no tellers, and no withdrawals. The teller lines will be closed and dark. A clerk and security will be there to escort you in and out as needed for your box."

don't forget, you're paying rent for them to store your property. There is no good reason for them not to make some kind of arrangement for this concept, when it is separate from the financial system that is being held in abeyance.

Still, in the event of difficulties, I would hedge my bets. If your house is looted when you're away during the day, the odds you cant get to your SDB eventually are really ridiculous. One backs the other up. If you can't get to your SDB its good to have something at home.

I take the preppers way...and do BOTH. Two ways is one, and one is none.

lawman800
02-27-2010, 13:36
They don't have to allow you any access if they are closed, is the whole point. You are at their mercy if they are not open during normal hours. Even if they are open, what about dealing with the lines then? You want to wait for hours to get to your stuff while your house is unattended?

G29Reload
02-27-2010, 13:39
They don't have to allow you any access if they are closed, is the whole point. You are at their mercy if they are not open during normal hours. Even if they are open, what about dealing with the lines then? You want to wait for hours to get to your stuff while your house is unattended?

It can't stay closed forever, and at least your stuff is safe. Again, its hedging your bets, what if your house is wiped out?

DO BOTH!

lawman800
02-27-2010, 13:49
My house may be wiped out, but not my hardened bunker in the backyard, under the pool. TEEHEE!

PartyBible
02-27-2010, 14:00
CF you inspired me to provide a post that will hopefully provoke some thought.

What if next month the .gov announces a formal devaluation of the currency?

What if they don't announce it, but the currency gets devalued 30 or 50% by a policy action?

That is exactly what will happen, if this were to occur. It falls apart literally overnight. It doesn't matter whether your cash is under the mattress, in a SDB, or in the vault. Its all worthless. Check out ferfal's blog in particular the bank holidays that occurred during their '01 collapse. The only investors that survive currency collapse are those folks that have assets OUTSIDE the span of control of the currency. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency and the world is heavily invested in it. The world trades in US dollars, their equity and debt instruments are in the dollar. OP, do you really think China, as one of the largest lenders, is going to intentionally ruin the US? The US defaults and they receive maybe .10-50cents on the dollar.

Banks are CYA'ing because the garbage they bought is going to come back to roost. They have propped this nightmare up with sovereign US debt, however I don't fear currency devaluation....... I fear a lack of increased productivity.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/190665-recent-stats-indicate-u-s-economic-recovery-was-an-illusion

This is going to sound crazy, but I honestly want to know one thing: Why am I being lied too?

Lets' measure prductivity by using CME, e.g. if the world economy, emerging and mature markets, picks up and becomes more productive we would experience an increase in the price of inputs. (this is the only way out of an economic "slowdown)

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html

So lets take a look at light sweet crude options:
4/10 contract price is around $79
12/18 contract price is around $94

Let's do a bit of math. There is a difference of 104 months or 8.7 yrs between those prices so....
we have time to maturity
beginning and
ending balance
So what's the ERV?

A whopping 2%/yr for the next 9years.

By comparison the inflation adjusted CAGR, S&P500, from 1/02 to 12/07, the time period between the tech and real estate bubble, was around 4-3%. In other words if you invested a $1 in 1/02 you would have $1.20 in 12/07.

Although the difference between what we may experience with 2% growth and the past growth of 3-4% doesn't seem huge, remember my forecast number DOES NOT include inflation.

If that isn't sobering enough let me throw another number at you guys, unemployment. Now the offical number in the US is round 4MM, when you look at the u6 I think it is closer to 8MM. (This is totally of the top of my head so feel free to correct me).

Now if you believe the president the US will add 95,000 jobs per month.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/02/11/politics/main6197050.shtml

So if we just take the 4MM and divide it by 95K you get, 12/07 employment levels in 42 months or about 4yrs. But lets look at u6, 8MM jobs, so we hit 12/07 employment numbers in 84 months or about 8 years.

Riddle me this folks:

How do we add 95K jobs/month with an annually unadjusted world wide growth rate of 2%?

G29Reload
02-27-2010, 14:07
Riddle me this folks:

How do we add 95K jobs/month with an annually unadjusted world wide growth rate of 2%?




Anything coming out of the BHO administration, statisitically, is a fiction. They lie almost continuously.

And even if the currency does fall apart overnight, you should have enough lead time to get to the supermarket and be sitting pretty with another 500-1000 worth of canned goods. And maybe hit the liquor store too. And the gas station with your gerry jugs. Just sayin..

Cajunmudman
02-27-2010, 15:03
PB,
That is an excellent post on the light sweet crude options.
Being in the oil patch for the last 15 years and knowing just how hard it is to get the stuff out of the ground, and just how scarce it is becoming. It is stunning that not only is oil being priced like we still have a lot of east stuff to drill for, but that it is being priced in the future at almost no inflation....


So, how do we make money off this? Which is really THE most important question....

inzone
02-27-2010, 16:18
Party Bible I dont know who you are, but you are a freakin genius (pardon my french).... I think you are spot on brother! exactly! ....and that "exactly" scares the (you know what) out of me.... thats why I prep, and I am preppin hard right now....I dont think folks really realize how deep we are in the kimcheee.....sadly, i think we are going to impact hard..... I am watching some very smart folks who are pulling out all their assets and headin for the hills..literally...and I dont think this is fringe paranaoia.... cuz these aint fringe type of folks.... fwiw.....May God help us all!

certifiedfunds
02-27-2010, 16:32
CF you inspired me to provide a post that will hopefully provoke some thought.



That is exactly what will happen, if this were to occur. It falls apart literally overnight. It doesn't matter whether your cash is under the mattress, in a SDB, or in the vault. Its all worthless. Check out ferfal's blog in particular the bank holidays that occurred during their '01 collapse. The only investors that survive currency collapse are those folks that have assets OUTSIDE the span of control of the currency. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency and the world is heavily invested in it. The world trades in US dollars, their equity and debt instruments are in the dollar. OP, do you really think China, as one of the largest lenders, is going to intentionally ruin the US? The US defaults and they receive maybe .10-50cents on the dollar.

Banks are CYA'ing because the garbage they bought is going to come back to roost. They have propped this nightmare up with sovereign US debt, however I don't fear currency devaluation....... I fear a lack of increased productivity.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/190665-recent-stats-indicate-u-s-economic-recovery-was-an-illusion

This is going to sound crazy, but I honestly want to know one thing: Why am I being lied too?

Lets' measure prductivity by using CME, e.g. if the world economy, emerging and mature markets, picks up and becomes more productive we would experience an increase in the price of inputs. (this is the only way out of an economic "slowdown)

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html

So lets take a look at light sweet crude options:
4/10 contract price is around $79
12/18 contract price is around $94

Let's do a bit of math. There is a difference of 104 months or 8.7 yrs between those prices so....
we have time to maturity
beginning and
ending balance
So what's the ERV?

A whopping 2%/yr for the next 9years.

By comparison the inflation adjusted CAGR, S&P500, from 1/02 to 12/07, the time period between the tech and real estate bubble, was around 4-3%. In other words if you invested a $1 in 1/02 you would have $1.20 in 12/07.

Although the difference between what we may experience with 2% growth and the past growth of 3-4% doesn't seem huge, remember my forecast number DOES NOT include inflation.

If that isn't sobering enough let me throw another number at you guys, unemployment. Now the offical number in the US is round 4MM, when you look at the u6 I think it is closer to 8MM. (This is totally of the top of my head so feel free to correct me).

Now if you believe the president the US will add 95,000 jobs per month.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/02/11/politics/main6197050.shtml

So if we just take the 4MM and divide it by 95K you get, 12/07 employment levels in 42 months or about 4yrs. But lets look at u6, 8MM jobs, so we hit 12/07 employment numbers in 84 months or about 8 years.

Riddle me this folks:

How do we add 95K jobs/month with an annually unadjusted world wide growth rate of 2%?




Excellent post PB.

I keep hoping .264 will weigh in as well.

With regard to the employment numbers, do you have any data on how many net new workers are projected to enter the workforce (work eligible) over that time period?

(taking into account babyboomer exit, broke ass baby boomer re-entry, and young workers coming in?)

It sounds like you are more on the deflation side of things, no?

racerford
02-28-2010, 00:37
Let's see, there are ~153M people in the workforce. Population Growth in the US is ~1% about 1968. Boomers are beginning to leave the workforce. Given they didn't call it the baby boom for no reason, and population growth rate were above 1.5% prior to 1962,, I would say the net entry into the workforce will be below 1%. With a modicum of productivity, the economy could absorb a 1.5M people per year reduction in the unemployed, or 125,000 per month at a 2% growth rate. One soucre predicted that the growth in the total available workforce will grow at 0.6% from about 2010 to 2050.

So even with productivity, yes at 2% absorb 95k unemployed should not only be possible, maybe even more can happen. Now, maybe those jobs will suck, but they can be there.

Do you want to make that happen? Then try to buy US made products. When you get bad support on customer service calls to those offshore call centers, contact the companies and tell them how bad it was, and that if you can't speak to people that speak English as a first language, you will move your busines to a place that does value good customer service even if you have to pay more, and do it.

Money talks, lately (the last 20+ years) the money says you want cheaper stuff and you don't care where it comes from, product or service. WE forced jobs off-shore by our purchasing decisions.

PartyBible
02-28-2010, 09:33
Thanks for the comments guys. What i tried to do with that post is show you both leading and lagging indicators of economic performance. We can infer what is happening if we look at what goes into the system and then what comes out.



-do you have any data on how many net new workers are projected to enter the workforce (work eligible) over that time period?

(taking into account babyboomer exit, broke ass baby boomer re-entry, and young workers coming in?)

It sounds like you are more on the deflation side of things, no?

- I'd have to do some research to find those numbers. I want to say that the definition is called job churn, and its around 250K/mo in the us. So that is the number of jobs that are open, from people moving to other jobs, retirement etc.... that are then filled by incoming workers.

The US and most mature markets are "greying nations," meaning there are less new workers in joining the work force. Allegedly this is what makes the emerging markets so appealing, something called population dividend for the BRICs. Although the term BRIC came from GS so take that for what its worth. BRIC may very well be the next bubble and lets be honest, China is loaning the US a ton of money while substantially increasing their domestic capital expenditures on infrastructure. It's hard for me to beleive that any surplus they have has not been loaned domestically. BRIC could very well be the next bubble.

On a personal note: we need to get some of these retirement eligible folks out the door pronto. The world has changed substantially in the last 10 years and managing firms in similar fashion as the past is no longer sufficient to retain stakeholder confidence. Conversely, stakeholders need to understand that the days of 15-20% YoY increases in performance is something that may not occur for years in the future. Now is the time to build business and focus on future competitiveness while managing investors expections when the equity spot price drops or remains constant for the forseeable future.

Inflation, stagflation, deflation are just terms for spot prices relative to regional market buying power. Great terms with investment implications, but I think you have to look at the entire macroeconomic environment to get a good sense for what is going on. Especially with commodities like energy and currency there is always another side to every deal. Some folks have this idea that the world will end, it may who knows, however there is money to be made on both sides of a deal.

Edit: sorry for the spelling and some of the incomplete thoughts, PC is acting up and I want to post this in part before it crashes

wjv
02-28-2010, 10:51
All the more reason why you should be holding 1-3 months if you can.

A devaluation, no matter how sudden, will not happen so quickly there won't be some lag time.

Wouldn't count on that.

wjv
02-28-2010, 11:08
If that isn't sobering enough let me throw another number at you guys, unemployment. Now the offical number in the US is round 4MM, when you look at the u6 I think it is closer to 8MM. (This is totally of the top of my head so feel free to correct me).

Not even close. .

From the BLS

For unemployment calculations, there are 152,577,000 in the potential US work force.

In January, the number of unemployed persons decreased to 14.8 million, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent (U3).

The U6 number is 16.5% or 25,175,254 people.

rj1939
02-28-2010, 11:47
Wouldn't count on that.


+1 What he said.


A significant devaluation has already happened in our past: When FDR did his gold grab, in the process devaluing the dollar by about 30%.

rj1939
02-28-2010, 12:12
I started following one of the financial forums about two and a half years ago..........when I started getting the nagging feeling that something is just not right. I found some people with similar nagging doubts about what we were heading toward. Some of them were pretty knowledgeable about the banking industry. As with all forums, there are the optimists and the pessimists, I have watched the number of optimists dwindle (even the moderators) and the few that are still around that lived through the Depression (the ones that are fond of saying it will never be that bad again)
I don't give us much of a chance for a happy ending.

G29Reload
02-28-2010, 12:45
Not even close. .

From the BLS

For unemployment calculations, there are 152,577,000 in the potential US work force.

In January, the number of unemployed persons decreased to 14.8 million, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent (U3).

The U6 number is 16.5% or 25,175,254 people.

These numbers represent a small drop AFTER the BHO admin changed the way the workforce is counted. The real numbers are slightly higher.

G29Reload
02-28-2010, 12:51
So lets take a look at light sweet crude options:
4/10 contract price is around $79
12/18 contract price is around $94

Let's do a bit of math. There is a difference of 104 months or 8.7 yrs between those prices so....

You CANNOT base future outcomes on these figures. The ones you're quoting are SPECULATIVE OPTIONS (futures). They are not absolutes, they change daily. Just watch Fox Business or CNBC.

Tomorrow, if the Straights of Hormuz are closed, the 12/18 could be $180/bl. If a field of oil the size of Saudi Arabia is discovered somewhere, the 12/18 futures could change to $38/bbl. Basing ANYTHING on these figures is beyond irrelevent.

certifiedfunds
02-28-2010, 14:41
Wouldn't count on that.

I agree.

Some folks (Goldman Sachs, et al) are going to have advanced knowledge and make appropriate moves. Those who are astute enough to interpret those moves and make adjustments will have an advantage.

I don't count myself among those people and expect to get whacked over the head like the rest of the plebes.

For society at large it will come as a thief in the night.

1 old 0311
02-28-2010, 15:50
I agree.

Some folks (Goldman Sachs, et al) are going to have advanced knowledge and make appropriate moves. Those who are astute enough to interpret those moves and make adjustments will have an advantage.

I don't count myself among those people and expect to get whacked over the head like the rest of the plebes.

For society at large it will come as a thief in the night.


Maybe "advanced knowledge" isn't the correct word. There will be advanced SIGNS that the big boys can interpret that the average investor can't.

Look who didn't get hit in the depression collapse: The big boys. The average investor lost his ass. They went defensive and capitalized on the opportunities.

certifiedfunds
02-28-2010, 16:02
Maybe "advanced knowledge" isn't the correct word. There will be advanced SIGNS that the big boys can interpret that the average investor can't.

Look who didn't get hit in the depression collapse: The big boys. The average investor lost his ass. They went defensive and capitalized on the opportunities.

Agreed, except that I may be a bit more jaded than you. GS is Treasury and Fed and Treasury and Fed is GS....one big corrupt incestuous relationship. I believe they'll have advanced knowledge. As will citi, etc.

However, we, the citizens, will be largely blindsided.

PartyBible
02-28-2010, 18:16
Basing ANYTHING on these figures is beyond irrelevent.


Try again. You bet the futures numbers change. As the contract gets closer to maturity there is less uncertainty in the assumptions used to develop the price. Both scenarios you outlined are so far out of the relm of possiblity that thier impact on the pricing models are about zero.

What do you think derivatives are used for?

bcvojak
You made me get off my fat butt and look the numbers up:http://www.bls.gov/web/ceshighlights.pdf

"Since the start of the recession in December 2007, job losses total 8.4 million."

I tend to believe the truth is somewhere bewteen BLS and John Williams at http://www.shadowstats.com/

My point was that its going to take a while to get into a recovery.

PartyBible
02-28-2010, 18:40
Anything coming out of the BHO administration, statisitically, is a fiction.


this is more than just who is in office. Not to get to crazy on you guys but it seems like no one is telling you what is really going on.

G29Reload
02-28-2010, 18:55
You bet the futures numbers change. As the contract gets closer to maturity there is less uncertainty in the assumptions used to develop the xxpxrixcex guess.

Which is why the 12/18 figures are pie in the sky. You're talking EIGHT YEARS OUT. No one has that kind of crystal ball. Its a speculative ballpark guess and in reality may end up no where near the actual outcome.

The only thing futures accurately measure is Sentiment at a given hour.

wjv
02-28-2010, 22:01
T
bcvojak
You made me get off my fat butt and look the numbers up:http://www.bls.gov/web/ceshighlights.pdf

"Since the start of the recession in December 2007, job losses total 8.4 million."

You are correct. the numbers I quoted are current TOTAL U3 & U6, taken directly from the A15 (alternative measures) report. Assuming that unemployment was NOT at zero in Dec 07, adding the additional 8.4M give the current totals.

wjv
02-28-2010, 22:02
These numbers represent a small drop AFTER the BHO admin changed the way the workforce is counted. The real numbers are slightly higher.

I wasn't commenting on the drop. . . You might want to look at the statement I was responding to.

Cajunmudman
03-01-2010, 09:16
PB and Bcvojak

It aint often we get good numbers like that ... Quality stuff you guys posted.
Others may not get what you put up, but those us us with a Louisiana education get it.

I am a BIG fan of John Williams, BTW.

Dexters
03-01-2010, 09:28
Maybe "advanced knowledge" isn't the correct word. There will be advanced SIGNS that the big boys can interpret that the average investor can't.

Look who didn't get hit in the depression collapse: The big boys. The average investor lost his ass. They went defensive and capitalized on the opportunities.

You might like this.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/29127316/the_great_american_bubble_machine

The Great American Bubble Machine
From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression - and they're about to do it again

Cajunmudman
03-01-2010, 12:46
good article, pretty much spot on.....too bad most people could care less....
And still believe that global warming is because we drive cars.... we will get the kind of govt we deserve.

1 old 0311
03-01-2010, 17:04
You might like this.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/29127316/the_great_american_bubble_machine

The Great American Bubble Machine
From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression - and they're about to do it again



EXCELLENT read. Thanks!

Cajunmudman
03-01-2010, 17:26
Hey wait.... why all the piling on of Goldman Sacks, they rigged the system and bought off all the pols fair and square. If not them, someone else would... So, since that is they way it is, might as well try and make money WITH them, until the system collapses.
1) Buy the stock
2) See if Buffett will sell you some of the sweet deal warrents they gave him
3) Become one of there clients, issued a ton of debt, then later just say "oopppsss" and default.

This making money is sooooo easy. No wonder they bought off the pols and rigged the system.

G29Reload
03-01-2010, 17:27
PB and Bcvojak

It aint often we get good numbers like that ... Quality stuff you guys posted.
Others may not get what you put up, but those us us with a Louisiana education get it.

Apparently not. Anyone that believes formulas based on sentiment and speculation is cooking their own goose.

Then again, figures and formulas aside, the math and wasteful spending our gov dumps on us daily indicates we're cooked regardless.

The only future I put any stock in is ammo, canned goods and gold. A gun forum I'm on, someone suggested that after the dollar, the next currency is going to be .22's. Theres an idea that might catch on.

Cajunmudman
03-01-2010, 18:15
damn shame everyone cant be as smart as you....

G29Reload
03-01-2010, 19:18
damn shame everyone cant be as smart as you....

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that you shouldn't be basing your future on someone's speculation. If we've learned anything in the past decade, its that we live in a volatile and changing world. Sometimes violently so.

PartyBible
03-25-2010, 22:45
Which is why the 12/18 figures are pie in the sky. You're talking EIGHT YEARS OUT. No one has that kind of crystal ball. Its a speculative ballpark guess and in reality may end up no where near the actual outcome.

The only thing futures accurately measure is Sentiment at a given hour.

I agree 100%, and by the numbers today, 90.43. =/- 20. You have said something that a lot of readers may have missed sentiment, that is the differnce bewteen inflation and hyper inflation. Confidence is everything in the market.


Real Estate is no different than derivatives, maybe I should say mortgage, since a mortgage could be technically considered a derivative of home ownership. There were two reasons I responded to this tread. One, there is a ton of uncertainty in the "economy." We are at a rare point in world history where one government has so much control of capital flows. Second, home ownership is not always the best decision, because it carries substantial risk that few really truly understand.

If the value of the dollar tanks, you will be holding worthless dollars. . I wouldn't buy gold right now if I had a Glock to my head. Lots of scared "investors" have put money in gold because.....well... they are scared! Don't think for a second that gold is any different than a fiat currency.

.357 Glocker
03-25-2010, 23:28
I wouldn't buy gold right now if I had a Glock to my head. Lots of scared "investors" have put money in gold because.....well... they are scared! Don't think for a second that gold is any different than a fiat currency.

Of course gold is different than fiat currency. Gold has never become worthless and has maintained remarkably consistent value for centuries.

Gold may well go down in the short term because of supply and demand issues but if inflation skyrockets it's a virtual certainty that gold prices (not necessarily value) will rise substantially.

lawman800
03-25-2010, 23:55
Gold will be valued as long as there is some semblance of society left and people still have the paradigm of precious metals holding a value beyond their actual utility.

You can't eat gold, you can't drink gold, you can't wear gold (aside from jewelry), etc.

It's value is what we assign to it in a society that has the luxury to assign such values. When there is no more society and therefore, no prestige to holding gold or any value in trading because nobody wants it as it has no real utility, then you will see gold being valued as much as anything else lying around in a heap.

certifiedfunds
03-26-2010, 06:03
Gold will be valued as long as there is some semblance of society left and people still have the paradigm of precious metals holding a value beyond their actual utility.

You can't eat gold, you can't drink gold, you can't wear gold (aside from jewelry), etc.

It's value is what we assign to it in a society that has the luxury to assign such values. When there is no more society and therefore, no prestige to holding gold or any value in trading because nobody wants it as it has no real utility, then you will see gold being valued as much as anything else lying around in a heap.

Yeah, but these rat bastard politicians can't tax it away..........

1 old 0311
03-26-2010, 08:36
Yeah, but these rat bastard politicians can't tax it away..........


Nor can they keep track of it when I sell. The ONLY thing the coin shop asks me is "You want cash or check?"

Bilbo Bagins
03-26-2010, 08:39
Of course gold is different than fiat currency. Gold has never become worthless and has maintained remarkably consistent value for centuries.

Gold may well go down in the short term because of supply and demand issues but if inflation skyrockets it's a virtual certainty that gold prices (not necessarily value) will rise substantially.

You really need to research the history of the price of gold over the past 40 years. Now is probably the WORST time to buy gold. Just a mere 8 years ago Gold was selling at $280 an ounce, that is 2002, right after 9/11 and the mini recession it cause. During the 1970's you seen spikes in inflation in 1974 and 1979.
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx?dsInflation_currentPage=3

Gold usual spikes with inflation, but then comes crashing down.

http://goldprice.org/images/monthly_dollar.gif

Your buying gold during a bubble that is eventually going to burst. Anyone who tells you that gold will go up "Substantually" and stay there is lying. You buy gold when times are good because it cheap to heage against inflation when times are bad. If you buy gold when times are bad, you will lose you shirt if things turn around. Just like the Real Estate market, the people who are telling to to BUY, BUY, BUY are the ones who are profiting from you buying at the highest price possible.

1 old 0311
03-26-2010, 08:59
You really need to research the history of the price of gold over the past 40 years. Now is probably the WORST time to buy gold. Just a mere 8 years ago Gold was selling at $280 an ounce, that is 2002, right after 9/11 and the mini recession it cause. During the 1970's you seen spikes in inflation in 1974 and 1979.
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx?dsInflation_currentPage=3

Gold usual spikes with inflation, but then comes crashing down.

http://goldprice.org/images/monthly_dollar.gif

Your buying gold during a bubble that is eventually going to burst. Anyone who tells you that gold will go up "Substantually" and stay there is lying. You buy gold when times are good because it cheap to heage against inflation when times are bad. If you buy gold when times are bad, you will lose you shirt if things turn around. Just like the Real Estate market, the people who are telling to to BUY, BUY, BUY are the ones who are profiting from you buying at the highest price possible.


There is NEVER a perfect time for ANY investment that's why you dollar cost average.

lawman800
03-26-2010, 09:10
Yeah, but these rat bastard politicians can't tax it away..........

The government cannot tax or deflate value on something that we assign a value to by our own system, hence the value of tangible goods in the private, free market.

Pretty much everything in a free market is anathema to this administration. If they can't regulate it, they hate it. Don't worry, they'll figure out a way to control everything such as moving all transactions to an electronic credit system like you saw in "Demolition Man" where everything is just debited out of your account by computers.

When every transaction is controlled in an economy, you can still have your black market bartering but it will be severely limited as any IRS jackboot can see that you have acquisitions out of line with your government allowed transaction history.

Openroadracer
03-26-2010, 10:04
You might like this.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/29127316/the_great_american_bubble_machine

The Great American Bubble Machine
From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression - and they're about to do it again


I highly recommend that everyone read that article. I almost at a loss for words right now after reading it.

.357 Glocker
03-26-2010, 12:16
You really need to research the history of the price of gold over the past 40 years. Now is probably the WORST time to buy gold. Just a mere 8 years ago Gold was selling at $280 an ounce, that is 2002, right after 9/11 and the mini recession it cause. During the 1970's you seen spikes in inflation in 1974 and 1979.
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx?dsInflation_currentPage=3

Gold usual spikes with inflation, but then comes crashing down.

http://goldprice.org/images/monthly_dollar.gif

Your buying gold during a bubble that is eventually going to burst. Anyone who tells you that gold will go up "Substantually" and stay there is lying. You buy gold when times are good because it cheap to heage against inflation when times are bad. If you buy gold when times are bad, you will lose you shirt if things turn around. Just like the Real Estate market, the people who are telling to to BUY, BUY, BUY are the ones who are profiting from you buying at the highest price possible.

That is true, but there are many people who strongly believe that Inflation is only just begun. There are also many that belive that the USD is on the verge of collapse. If that is the case gold is a good place to have at least a portion of your savings.

.357 Glocker
03-26-2010, 12:46
I think a good example of where gold could be now is the mid 70's. If you looked at the price of gold in 1975 it had more than quadrupled in the previous 5 years. That would look like a huge bubble but then gold more than quadrupled again in the next five years and never returned to that price level again. The recklessness of monetary policy of the 70's pales in comparison to what the Fed is doing now so a repeat seems fairly likely. I wouldn't be surprised to see gold hit $10K in the next ten years.

Also, the inflation of the late seventies and early eighties was supposedly impossible because you can't have inflation in a weak economy, so they say. You would think they would learn from history but they are still saying inflation will only come once the economy improves. I wouldn't be so sure.

certifiedfunds
03-26-2010, 12:47
That is true, but there are many people who strongly believe that Inflation is only just begun. There are also many that belive that the USD is on the verge of collapse. If that is the case gold is a good place to have at least a portion of your savings.

With very little doubt.

Now is not the time to worry about price per ounce. One's main concern should be number of ounces held.

Yes, I realize how the two are related. The point is not to focus on what you paid or will pay for the metal, but how much you can buy at any given time. Lower prices help you buy a little more, and that's a bonus. But the higher prices should not discourage from buying.

By the time most folks realize they should've had some gold, it will be too late. Whether one paid $250/oz or $1000 per ounce will be trivial in the coming years other than the fact that they could have had 4x the bullion at $250.

inzone
03-26-2010, 16:15
Just this week I saw headlines suggesting U.S. AAA bond rating may be in jeopardy, now we see angst among treasury note dealers..... and much of the systemic data continues to be very troubling on the economy.... and I just read that again, the govt has greatly understimated the actuarial position of social security and several other entitlements....

oy vey, what next?

G29Reload
03-26-2010, 16:27
and I just read that again, the govt has greatly understimated the actuarial position of social security

We crossed the Rubicon 2 days ago. It was not supposed to happen till 2014-2016, but the continued high unemployment has pushed it back...as of Wednesday, we now are officially paying out more in SS than we are taking in, in withholdings.

It will get worse from here, of course.

The details of the HC bill are rolling in. You the individual, if no insurance have to pay the greater of 695$ or 2.5% of income. scheduled for 2013.

If you are an employer, you will provide HC or pay a 2000 fine per employee. wonder what that will do for the unemployment rate.

Unless of course its repealed. we can only hope.

rj1939
03-27-2010, 07:03
Just this week I saw headlines suggesting U.S. AAA bond rating may be in jeopardy, now we see angst among treasury note dealers..... and much of the systemic data continues to be very troubling on the economy.... and I just read that again, the govt has greatly understimated the actuarial position of social security and several other entitlements....

oy vey, what next?

The ratings agencies lost a lot of credibility (if not all) last year......so what is a rating given by a failed rating agency worth?

Jonesee
03-27-2010, 09:52
Electronic transfers aren't and cannot be a bank run. Even if a particular institution is targeted, an electronic transfer goes from one institution to another. It is only when MONEY EXITS THE SYSTEM (cash W/D) that there's a run.


This is not true. A bank run is a substantial outgoing (debit) of cash and money instruments. Any transfer whether it is in cash, wire, ACH transfer, etc. is counted. In fact, wires and ACH transfers will have a much more devastating effect on a bank than a cash withdrawal because of the amounts typically involved. An everyday man may run on a bank and withdraw $10,000. Large account holders can move $1 mil. or more in less time. On the bank's balance sheet the effect of both withdrawls are the same. Just the size and impact are different.

G29Reload
03-27-2010, 11:37
This is not true. A bank run is a substantial outgoing (debit) of cash and money instruments. Any transfer whether it is in cash, wire, ACH transfer, etc. is counted. In fact, wires and ACH transfers will have a much more devastating effect on a bank than a cash withdrawal because of the amounts typically involved. An everyday man may run on a bank and withdraw $10,000. Large account holders can move $1 mil. or more in less time. On the bank's balance sheet the effect of both withdrawls are the same. Just the size and impact are different.

Does not apply. What you describe is only true if one specific institution is targeted.

In a SHTF/TEOTWAWKI scenario involving a SYSTEMIC collapse, a complete loss of faith in the ENTIRE SYSTEM is occurring. ACH and other electronic transactions at that point are just moving money from one point in the system to another...not OUT of it. An electronic system needs terminals on both ends.

A cash run means money exits the system electronically, unless you've had a chip planted in your head for real, the analog green stuff goes in your pocket. As in, no longer on the books of any institution, as opposed to "now on the books of another institution".

Jonesee
03-27-2010, 14:38
Does not apply. What you describe is only true if one specific institution is targeted.

In a SHTF/TEOTWAWKI scenario involving a SYSTEMIC collapse, a complete loss of faith in the ENTIRE SYSTEM is occurring. ACH and other electronic transactions at that point are just moving money from one point in the system to another...not OUT of it. An electronic system needs terminals on both ends.

A cash run means money exits the system electronically, unless you've had a chip planted in your head for real, the analog green stuff goes in your pocket. As in, no longer on the books of any institution, as opposed to "now on the books of another institution".

In the situation you describe, there will be a total melt down of the monetary and economic system and the currency you withdrew from the bank will be as worthless as the accounting entries created to facilitate the wires and ACH's.


Even during the Great Depression, not all banks failed. The currency remained valued.

What you describe cannot be looked at in a vacuum without involving the faith and good will of the federal government. During the depression bank failures were business failures and losses were limitied to the depositors of the banks. In the current economic system any bank failure impacts the government because of the flow through and obligation of the FDIC and its like brethren, FSLIC, FCUA, etc.

A single bank failure or even the number of bank failures we have seen during this recesion has not created a crisis of confidence in the system. That is why a bank run is limited to individual banks and why transfers effectively safeguard large depositors.

In a "total banking system failure" the question would be could the government bring confindence to the finacial system America is based on. If not, having American currency would be as worthless as the digital accounting entries. Look at the hyper-inflation and monetary devaluation of Central and and South American countries during times of economic crisis.

Dennis in MA
03-27-2010, 19:20
I highly recommend that everyone read that article. I almost at a loss for words right now after reading it.

I have a real hard time reading anything printed in Rolling Stone. If they wrote that I'd wake up tomorrow, I'd be getting my affairs in order tonight. 'Bastion of Journalism' they are not.


Just this week I saw headlines suggesting U.S. AAA bond rating may be in jeopardy, now we see angst among treasury note dealers..... and much of the systemic data continues to be very troubling on the economy.... and I just read that again, the govt has greatly understimated the actuarial position of social security and several other entitlements....

oy vey, what next?

That rally cry has been heard for the last 18 months. And it's BUNK. Someone has to have AAA ratings. That's us. Look at the $ that pours into the US to buy T-bills b/c THEY ARE THE SAFEST THING ON THE PLANET. No matter how bad it gets here, it's worse everywhere else.

Just pick up your heads and stop looking at Fox, MSNBC and CNN for your news. Please. The REAL BIG NEWS this week was the mild US pressure on China to let the Yuan float. The Chinese spend billions of $ annually to keep the Yuan pegged. If the sucker is allowed to float, China will be a net importer of goods. Think about that for a second. Worse off - it's b/c EXPORTS will dry up. Anyone here want to see Walmart raise prices 40%? China don't!

The "house of cards" has us as the base and cap stone. Period. We are the dog, the world is the tail. At least for the next 50-100 years, despite ANYTHING we do. It's only when population problems make the US shrink that we lose our big-dog status.



And that SSI thing has me mildly worried - if only b/c at some point in the next decade, the gub'mint will have to ADMIT it's social insurance and some payors will NOT receive any benefits.

Creek Rat
03-27-2010, 19:51
If you are an employer, you will provide HC or pay a 2000 fine per employee. wonder what that will do for the unemployment rate.


No necessarily true. Like most larger companies we are "self insured" and now pay out over $10k per employee in health care costs. Our single payer annual premium is less than $1k so that leaves a big expense hanging out there for the company.

We'll be eager to offload these health care costs to uncle sugar and turn an additional $7k in profit per employee. No sweat to you employee; you'll still getting health care, just down at the clinic with the rest of the creek rats.

inzone
03-27-2010, 19:55
as respectful as I can be.... and I mean as respectful I can be.... what you might kindly..mercy teacups...be missing..is that as the US "disses" the nation of Israel, GOD will, respectfully, take away from America the things we value most....... reserve currency or not!

Glocktastic
03-27-2010, 20:28
as respectful as I can be.... and I mean as respectful I can be.... what you might kindly..mercy teacups...be missing..is that as the US "disses" the nation of Israel, GOD will, respectfully, take away from America the things we value most....... reserve currency or not!

Not to change the subject, that is one of the politest disagreements I have ever seen on a forum.

G29Reload
03-27-2010, 21:32
In the situation you describe, there will be a total melt down of the monetary and economic system and the currency you withdrew from the bank will be as worthless as the accounting entries created to facilitate the wires and ACH's.


Even during the Great Depression, not all banks failed. The currency remained valued.

What you describe cannot be looked at in a vacuum without involving the faith and good will of the federal government. During the depression bank failures were business failures and losses were limitied to the depositors of the banks. In the current economic system any bank failure impacts the government because of the flow through and obligation of the FDIC and its like brethren, FSLIC, FCUA, etc.

Well, which is it? The SHTF I'm talking about is a run on everything because of a loss of faith in the govt, with the currency.

During the GD, not all banks failed, but people still took money out of all of them. Currency might begin a decline, but it still won't lose value so fast that it can't be exchanged for something of value.

Cajunmudman
03-28-2010, 06:10
Not to change the subject, that is one of the politest disagreements I have ever seen on a forum.

Yep, sucks dont it!!!
Even that Reload dude is being civil....


But dont worry, I'll try and stir the pot as much as possible. :)

Bilbo Bagins
03-30-2010, 12:37
I have a real hard time reading anything printed in Rolling Stone. If they wrote that I'd wake up tomorrow, I'd be getting my affairs in order tonight. 'Bastion of Journalism' they are not.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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That rally cry has been heard for the last 18 months. And it's BUNK. Someone has to have AAA ratings. That's us. Look at the $ that pours into the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:country-region><st1:place>US</st1:place></st1:country-region> to buy T-bills b/c THEY <st1:stockticker>ARE</st1:stockticker> THE SAFEST THING ON THE PLANET. No matter how bad it gets here, it's worse everywhere else. <o:p></o:p>
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Just pick up your heads and stop looking at Fox, MSNBC and CNN for your news. Please. The <st1:stockticker>REAL</st1:stockticker> BIG NEWS this week was the mild <st1:country-region><st1:place>US</st1:place></st1:country-region> pressure on <st1:country-region><st1:place>China</st1:place></st1:country-region> to let the Yuan float. The Chinese spend billions of $ annually to keep the Yuan pegged. If the sucker is allowed to float, <st1:country-region><st1:place>China</st1:place></st1:country-region> will be a net importer of goods. Think about that for a second. Worse off - it's b/c EXPORTS will dry up. Anyone here want to see Walmart raise prices 40%? <st1:country-region><st1:place>China</st1:place></st1:country-region> don't! <o:p></o:p>
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The "house of cards" has us as the base and cap stone. Period. We are the dog, the world is the tail. At least for the next 50-100 years, despite ANYTHING we do. It's only when population problems make the <st1:country-region><st1:place>US</st1:place></st1:country-region> shrink that we lose our big-dog status.<o:p></o:p>
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And that SSI thing has me mildly worried - if only b/c at some point in the next decade, the gub'mint will have to ADMIT it's social insurance and some payors will NOT receive any benefits.<o:p></o:p>
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Good post. You got to admit one bad think about communist <st1:country-region><st1:place>China</st1:place></st1:country-region>, is no matter how much there new found prestige may swoon investors, you still have to get a little nervous with the stability of China's populaton and the fact that their government can do as it pleases with you assets if it revert back to its old ways. Even with Obama and all the mess we are in the USA is still a safe haven.

I think the Social Security issue is going to come down to a cut off. People born after some future date, say like 2015 will not receive SS benefits. They would then bump the start age. Also I bet the amnesty issue is part of some actuarial study. Make 20 million poor illegal Mexican immigrants legal, tax them, and based on some charts only a small percentage will ever make it to retire on Social Security.

inzone
03-30-2010, 15:20
what was the weimar republic's bond rating at the end? when a nation's bond rating is lowered, it costs more and more to roll over its debt...guess what happened at the last US treasury auction...it essentially failed...the investors are just waiting for a better price...and they will likely get it....

how high ya think interest rates can go? and when a govt cant roll over all its debt and is forced to buy its own debt.....what do you think that gov't buys its own debt with???? .....

I didnt go to Harvard but I cannot mathematically compute any possible good outcome for this downward slippery slope.....

a miracle could happen perhaps..

PartyBible
03-30-2010, 18:51
Please don't buy gold. There are some reason that one should own gold, but f your only reason is because there is a wild executive and legislative branch, your "investment" decision is no different than speculating.

Don't kid yourself, gold can be worth zero. Its an asset no different than a stock or bond. If everyone is in Gold, ask yourself, where should you be?

Now if you want to hedge a portfoilio in nearly all equities, like mine, buy a little GLD. Set a stop loss order for around 11/2010-2/2011 or long some puts. That should cover you when gold makes its plunge to its fair market value.



Just pick up your heads and stop looking at Fox, MSNBC and CNN for your news. Please. The REAL BIG NEWS this week was the mild US pressure on China to let the Yuan float. The Chinese spend billions of $ annually to keep the Yuan pegged. If the sucker is allowed to float, China will be a net importer of goods. Think about that for a second. Worse off - it's b/c EXPORTS will dry up. Anyone here want to see Walmart raise prices 40%? China don't!

A man after my own heart! Great post! What China is doing, without using a dime of debt, is pegging to the dollar. Look at other nations that run large surpluses and you find that they must "devalue" their currency so they can sell their goods to deficit driven countries. China, as a surplus nation, would flip the frak out if their currency would be allowed to float. It would be real real ugly.


I've got a question for you guys:

There are only two types of assets in the world:
-Financial assets
-Real assets

If you took all of the financial assets on the planet and put them in a bucket what would they be worth?

PartyBible
07-29-2010, 19:29
How do we add 95K jobs/month with an annually unadjusted world wide growth rate of 2%?





Alright Boys time for a revisit to this thread. March 2011 is only $83 so.....


You will love this:

http://mythirdrail.blogspot.com/2010/05/piigs-default.html

wjv
07-29-2010, 21:49
Now if you want to hedge a portfoilio in nearly all equities, like mine, buy a little GLD. Set a stop loss order for around 11/2010-2/2011 or long some puts. That should cover you when gold makes its plunge to its fair market value.
.
.
.
There are only two types of assets in the world:
-Financial assets
-Real assets

And GLD & SLV are neither. They are fraudulent assets. Comdex and gang don't have even a fraction of enough physical Gold or Silver to cover the worthless GLD and SLV paper they have sold.

If you don't want physical gold or silver, invest in mining stock. .

certifiedfunds
07-29-2010, 22:16
Alright Boys time for a revisit to this thread. March 2011 is only $83 so.....


You will love this:

http://mythirdrail.blogspot.com/2010/05/piigs-default.html

Just need to restructure.

:rofl:

SilverCity
07-29-2010, 23:08
Quote: Don't kid yourself, gold can be worth zero.

Gold has been used as money for a very long time. When in gold's 5000 year history has it ever been worth zero?

Bill is right about GLD (and SLV). Comex paper contracts are currently running anywhere 40 up to 100:1 paper contracts to physical. If enough paper holders demand the metal, Comex, GLD, SLV, LME, et al could default and collapse overnight.

With the present global sovereign debt crisis, gold, silver, quality gold & silver mining shares are the best place to be. So says folks like Bob Chapman, Jim Sinclair, Richard Russell, and many others. I agree with them.

We have a saying in my sandbox: "If you don't hold it, you don't own it." Ponce

Woofie
07-30-2010, 00:25
Well its one thing to say the tellers are closed. Blocking people from their personal posessions is kind of extreme.

OTOH, nothing would surprise me anymore, so I do both. Split the risk, if you will.

From what I understand, a SDB is not a private possession. If I'm wrong please correct me.

Woofie
07-30-2010, 00:36
Look it is definitely time to move cash up the priority list. hopefully you have some type of savings account or a budget or something if not well things might be rough but you have to start putting away some cash. sacrifice a little bit everywhere else to pocket a few extra bucks and put it between the mattress or gun safe or fire box or dig a hole in your back yard but do something.

do it now incase it is to late next month.. worst thing is that you save money on ATM fees and gas going to get your cash out of the bank.

What I pull from this post is that I save money by drawing money from the ATM now versus drawing it post-crisis. If I can still use my debit card to extract useable cash from an ATM post-crisis, why can I not use my debit card to electronically transfer cash?

I'm not challenging. I'm asking. Wouldn't it make more sense to concentrate on acquiring goods to barter with rather than green pieces of paper?

Woofie
07-30-2010, 00:43
Outstanding Observation. In 1929 if you had $5 grand in _____ National Bank the day before the music stopped, you had 5 thousand Dollars. The next day $0.00. The Fortunate few that had $ 5000.00 socked away at home the day after effectively became rich, due to the fact they could pay CASH, for goods and services. My grandfather was like that and bought a 240 acre block of good farm land for $240.. cause had had the cash to back up his bid. Grandparents were also a strong believer of silver dollar coins. They tended to solve many small transactions. Paper was not trusted for a long time after 1930.

Prior to the FDIC if you had $5k in a bank account, you had $0 when the bank closed. Nowadays if you have $5k, you have $5k when the bank closes. Cash is not buying power. Cash only represents buying power. What does it matter when the government insures the money?

Woofie
07-30-2010, 00:49
Oh, and the next round of bank runs won't be people lining up at teller windows. It will be electronic transfers baby. If a bank, or set of banks, is weak and this becomes common knowledge, they can literally be bled dry overnight.

When my bank, which was one of the stellar banks during the S&L crisis, showed how shaky it was this go around I was able to move every dollar from three different accounts to a solid credit union with just a few clicks.

Hmm, makes me wonder if the new Citibank policy is for this sort of electronic run. I know if I had money in Citi it wouldn't be there for much longer. I'm just saying...

Why does it matter which bank your money is in? FDIC guarantees your money. Shouldn't you be more concerned with the actual value of your money rather than the money itself?

NIB
07-30-2010, 00:54
My cousin is a CPA and does a lot of auditing for the banking industry. He is telling me that he is seeing some very strange behavior at high levels of the banking industry.... big banks are starting to have their legal departments prepare all kinds of disclaimers for customers and a whole lotta CYA behavior is going on. This is just a heads up...I am probing for more info out there if anyone else is getting any intel..... ostensibly there are some problems leaking out of FDIC and VERY large amounts of money is being moved around by the Chinese and other foreign sovereign funds. My cousin thinks it spells really bad # 10 trouble.... p.s. if you dont think I have enough detail then, respectfully, help us all out by telling us what info you are hearing.... I am just tired of being blind sided like we all were when the subprime/stock meltdown hit us.....


inzone,

Back a few years ago here in the S&P forum before the housing market collapsed, the banks imploded and the economy took a cannonball dive off the top floor...someone came and made a very similar post like yours. Many told him he was crazy, full of it and what not. They told him a whole lot had to happen before the economy could collapse, that we were fine and the economy was strong. Well days later we saw the beginning of the economic collapse.

Hope it all turns out well, it's bad enough that the Army has turned down this unemployed 12 year veteran because they're full.

Woofie
07-30-2010, 01:07
I just saw how old the posts I responded to are. Sorry if I'm an ass and my questions were already answered.

Woofie
07-30-2010, 01:38
as respectful as I can be.... and I mean as respectful I can be.... what you might kindly..mercy teacups...be missing..is that as the US "disses" the nation of Israel, GOD will, respectfully, take away from America the things we value most....... reserve currency or not!

I disagree, as politely as you did.

If God is the loving being that we believe Him to be, then He provide for His true believers who provide for themselves. If He held us accountable for others' actions the children of the nation of Israel would have been wiped out long ago. Israel is still alive and most Ameicans support her, *disirregardlessly* of what our secret Muslim President believes.

Woofie
07-30-2010, 02:01
Quote: Don't kid yourself, gold can be worth zero.

Gold has been used as money for a very long time. When in gold's 5000 year history has it ever been worth zero?

Bill is right about GLD (and SLV). Comex paper contracts are currently running anywhere 40 up to 100:1 paper contracts to physical. If enough paper holders demand the metal, Comex, GLD, SLV, LME, et al could default and collapse overnight.

With the present global sovereign debt crisis, gold, silver, quality gold & silver mining shares are the best place to be. So says folks like Bob Chapman, Jim Sinclair, Richard Russell, and many others. I agree with them.

We have a saying in my sandbox: "If you don't hold it, you don't own it." Ponce

Gold is only worth what the next guy is willing to pay for it. Right now, I would be willing to pay cash for gold.

In a total economic collapse, how many of your shiny rocks is my 10k 2x4s, 600 sheets of plywood, superfluous hardware and tools, hundreds of 9mm rounds, thousands upon thousands of .22LR rounds, several hundred pounds of beans and rice, or the ability and knowledge of the physics and mathematics required to produce these items worth?

The person with the commodities dictates how much gold is worth. If I want every ounce of gold you have for a weeks' worth of beans and rice you have to give it to me. Or try eating your shiny rocks.

Gold may be worth a fortune, but in the end, the man with the useable goods and the knowledge to produce them is worth a fortune's worth of gold.

kirgi08
07-30-2010, 02:16
Barter Economy.

I prefer silver though,a Gold coin for bread seems a wee bit steep.A silver .05 sounds more reasonable.'08.

ETA. Folks I ain't read this whole thread,so if the above has been mentioned...........

SilverCity
07-30-2010, 08:38
In a total economic collapse, how many of your shiny rocks is my 10k 2x4s, 600 sheets of plywood, superfluous hardware and tools, hundreds of 9mm rounds, thousands upon thousands of .22LR rounds, several hundred pounds of beans and rice, or the ability and knowledge of the physics and mathematics required to produce these items worth?

You are assuming one has not planned ahead and stockpiled goods. What if you ALREADY have these items, as well as the knowledge to use them?

What do you do with the REST of your wealth...watch it disappear?

certifiedfunds
07-30-2010, 08:43
You are assuming one has not planned ahead and stockpiled goods. What if you ALREADY have these items, as well as the knowledge to use them?

What do you do with the REST of your wealth...watch it disappear?

Hard to carry 600 sheets of plywood.

SilverCity
07-30-2010, 08:47
Hard to carry 600 sheets of plywood.

Exactly, especially if you had to leave the country.

certifiedfunds
07-30-2010, 10:00
Exactly, especially if you had to leave the country.

I suppose you could build an arc

certifiedfunds
07-30-2010, 10:02
I think it was Deuce22 who said it best:

"I've got gold, silver, bread and ammo. You got bread. Big deal."

wjv
07-30-2010, 10:47
Gold is only worth what the next guy is willing to pay for it. Right now, I would be willing to pay cash for gold.

In a total economic collapse, how many of your shiny rocks is my 10k 2x4s, 600 sheets of plywood, superfluous hardware and tools, hundreds of 9mm rounds, thousands upon thousands of .22LR rounds, several hundred pounds of beans and rice, or the ability and knowledge of the physics and mathematics required to produce these items worth?

The person with the commodities dictates how much gold is worth. If I want every ounce of gold you have for a weeks' worth of beans and rice you have to give it to me. Or try eating your shiny rocks.

Gold may be worth a fortune, but in the end, the man with the useable goods and the knowledge to produce them is worth a fortune's worth of gold.

Doesn't work that way. . Look at Argentina. . You might want an ounce of gold for an egg, but the guy down the street will sell an egg for a 1/10 ounce, and the guy one block over will sell a dozen for 1 oz of silver. . .

Competition doesn't disappear. Besides, I can dig into my 18 month food supply and wait for things to shake out before dipping into my PMs. And I have also have tens of 1,000s of rounds of ammo available.

Total economic collapse won't happen. Didn't even happen in Argentina. Things got bad, but a large % of the people still went to work every day and everybody continued on with life, the best they could. The dollar could collapse. The dollar could fall to a level far less than it's worth today. But that doesn't imply that we will revert to Mad Max part III.

inzone
07-30-2010, 10:55
Bill..ahem..then why do you have an 18 month food supply and 1,000's of rounds of ammo, as well as PM.s...... ???

Woofie
07-30-2010, 11:02
You are assuming one has not planned ahead and stockpiled goods. What if you ALREADY have these items, as well as the knowledge to use them?

What do you do with the REST of your wealth...watch it disappear?

If you've stockpiled the goods you need, what are doing doing trying to trade for them?

I still don't understand how gold translates into wealth. If the man setting the price has no interest in gold, what good is it?

I know my example was extreme, and that's what I'm going to be criticised for. But gold has no intrinsic value, it only has the value the economy assigns to it. If there is a total economic collapse, who gives gold its value?

I'm new to the S/P idea on any scale larger than being prepared for a hurricane. I'm just trying to understand what makes gold more than a shiny rock when it is pitted against product and ability.

pugman
07-30-2010, 11:13
Alright Boys time for a revisit to this thread. March 2011 is only $83 so.....


You will love this:

http://mythirdrail.blogspot.com/2010/05/piigs-default.html

How do you add 95,000 jobs a month simple.

Government hires?

At no time in history are there more 100K/yr state and federal employees.

Last I heard City of Milwaukee had 200 openings for LEOs

Woofie
07-30-2010, 11:40
Doesn't work that way. . Look at Argentina. . You might want an ounce of gold for an egg, but the guy down the street will sell an egg for a 1/10 ounce, and the guy one block over will sell a dozen for 1 oz of silver. . .

Competition doesn't disappear. Besides, I can dig into my 18 month food supply and wait for things to shake out before dipping into my PMs. And I have also have tens of 1,000s of rounds of ammo available.

Total economic collapse won't happen. Didn't even happen in Argentina. Things got bad, but a large % of the people still went to work every day and everybody continued on with life, the best they could. The dollar could collapse. The dollar could fall to a level far less than it's worth today. But that doesn't imply that we will revert to Mad Max part III.

Why do I need to trade my eggs for gold and silver anyway? Especially if I'm still going to work every day. I'm being paid with something of value or I wouldn't be at work in the first place.

I have to be missing something big here, but I'm trying to understand why. To someone otherwise sufficiently prepared, what incentive do they have to even bother with trading in gold?

wjv
07-30-2010, 11:56
Bill..ahem..then why do you have an 18 month food supply and 1,000's of rounds of ammo, as well as PM.s...... ???

Read FerFal's posts. .

One main regret of his was NOT having stockpiled enough food. Food prices went crazy.

As for the ammo.
I have had to buy very little ammo during the recent price crunch because I have 40K+ rounds. (only ~2K per gun). In Argentina crime HAS increased. I suspect that over here crime would be even worse in the event of a economic crisis. But it doesn't mean Mad Max. .

There are also events like earthquake, volcanoes and such (I can see Mt St Helens from my bedroom window).

Finally, during any crisis the government typically tries to squash gun/ammo sales. So having both could be useful.

Never said that food, guns, ammo, or other supplies are bad. I have 3 highly rated water filters and a very good med kit. . . Probably will never need either. . But they are nice to have.

The way I look at it, and validated by FerFal's experiences is as follows:

Now Silver = ~$19 / oz (let's call it $20 for easy math)

$20 * 7 days = $140.

Could you feed your family on $140 per week? Unless you have 8 kids, most people could do so. You might not eat fancy, but with basics + some cheap protein (chicken) we could easily get by. Just would have to avoid the pre-packaged, pre-prepared, pre-frozen, pre-overpriced foods that are so popular today.

Dollar crashes. Not it's worth 1/5th of what it was 2 weeks ago. All commodity prices including food and silver shoot up in a proportionate inverse ratio to the dollar's value.

Now Silver = ~$50 / oz. That $3 loaf of bread now costs $15, and the $1.50/lb of chicken now costs $7.50. . . But that 1 oz of silver per day can still feed your family.

And according to FerFal, the values of PMs actually went up at a rate slightly higher than the cost of other common items such as food. If 1 oz of silver use to buy 4 loaves of bread, after 1:1 (the crash) that same oz of silver could buy 5 loaves of bread. The reason being that people were fleeing dollars that were devaluating on a daily basis, and dumping their cash into more stable assets like gold and silver. Thus driving the prices even higher. .

This does not negate the advantages of having other types of supplies. FerFal mentioned getting a problem with his roof fixed for just a couple cans of food. .


Germany 1919-1923 is another example
Weimar Germany Silver & Gold Prices in Marks

DATE - SILVER - GOLD
01 1919 - 12 - 170
05 1919 - 17 - 267
09 1919 - 31 - 499
01 1920 - 84 - 1,340
05 1920 - 60 - 966
09 1921 - 80 - 2,175
01 1922 - 249 - 3,976
05 1922 - 375 - 6,012
09 1922 - 1,899 - 30,381
01 1923 - 23,277 - 372,447
05 1923 - 44,397 - 710,355
06 1923 - 80,953 - 1,295,256
07 1923 - 207,239 - 3,315,831
08 1923 - 4,273,874 - 68,382,000
09 1923 - 16,839,937 - 269,429,000
10 02, 1923 - 414,484,000 - 6,631,749,000
10 09, 1923 - 1,554,309,000 - 24,868,950,000
10 16, 1923 - 5,319,567,000 - 84,969,072,000
10 23, 1923 - 7,253,460,000 - 1,160,552,662,000
10 30, 1923 - 8,419,200,000 - 1,347,070,000,000
11 05, 1923 - 54,375,000,000 - 8,700,000,000,000
11 13, 1923 - 108,750,000,000 - 17,400,000,000,000
11 30, 1923 - 543,750,000,000 - 87,000,000,000,000

Silver increased 45,312,500,000 X
Gold increased 511,764,705,882 X

That one ounce of silver (or gold) on Nov 3 1923, had around the same actual buying power as it had on Jan 1 1919. But if you had 5,000 Marks in the bank on Jan 1 1919, how much could it purchase in Nov 1923? Not very much.

Yes, those are bundles of German Marks that they are stacking. . .
http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i303/bcvojak/RVNet02/weimar2.jpg

lawman800
07-30-2010, 12:00
Gold is valuable as long as there is a bare semblance of a functioning government and society for it to be able to hold value. When it's a short term SHTF like a hurricane or earthquake, people will be able to still trust that gold has some value and will have value when everything returns to normal.

If there's no faith that society will ever come back to anything normal such as total world destruction on an apocalyptic scale like 2012, asteroid strike, World War Z, trust in gold will be diminished and maybe non-existent.

Woofie
07-30-2010, 12:20
Gold is valuable as long as there is a bare semblance of a functioning government and society for it to be able to hold value. When it's a short term SHTF like a hurricane or earthquake, people will be able to still trust that gold has some value and will have value when everything returns to normal.

If there's no faith that society will ever come back to anything normal such as total world destruction on an apocalyptic scale like 2012, asteroid strike, World War Z, trust in gold will be diminished and maybe non-existent.

But even during Katrina/Rita and later Gustav cash still maintained it's buying power.

As long as a legitimate government is in place to tell us cash/gold is worth x, fine. If there isn't, your cash turns into green pieces of paper and your gold into shiny rocks. Your gold isn't worth squat compared to my dinner.

sebecman
07-30-2010, 12:22
Why do I need to trade my eggs for gold and silver anyway? Especially if I'm still going to work every day. I'm being paid with something of value or I wouldn't be at work in the first place.

I know I'm the one who is incorrect, but I'm trying to understand why. To someone otherwise sufficiently prepared, what incentive do they have to even bother with trading in gold?

If you have all the other bases covered in spades, for example food, ammo, shelter supplies etc...then gold is a good way to protect your wealth. Why? Beacause gold has always and will always be worth something, where as paper money, no matter the issuing country, may not.

That said, some of the members here have way more money than others, they have their bread, ammo etc...and are investing their cash into PM's.

You are not "wrong" if you don't. Just accept it has fact that PM's are important preps to many who can afford them and leave it at that.

Woofie
07-30-2010, 13:15
If you have all the other bases covered in spades, for example food, ammo, shelter supplies etc...then gold is a good way to protect your wealth. Why? Beacause gold has always and will always be worth something, where as paper money, no matter the issuing country, may not.

That said, some of the members here have way more money than others, they have their bread, ammo etc...and are investing their cash into PM's.

You are not "wrong" if you don't. Just accept it has fact that PM's are important preps to many who can afford them and leave it at that.

"Just accept it" doesn't explain anything to me. Gold hasn't ALWAYS been worth something. It's only been worth something since the time of the rule of law and some sort of ruler with the means to enforce contracts and guarantee that gold is currency. As long as these conditions exist, gold will always be worth something. If the government can't or won't ensure that gold is valid to pay for goods, then the guy with the goods determines whether the gold has any value. If the guy who sells me chickens doesn't need gold, then why would I accept gold as payment for the eggs?

If I had the money I would buy PMs. I'm not trying to say it's wrong to, but I still fail to see how gold has any intrinsic value. You can't eat, or build with, or make good tools out of it, it's just pretty. Its value would be solely dependent on the next guy's perception of its value.

lawman800
07-30-2010, 13:20
But even during Katrina/Rita and later Gustav cash still maintained it's buying power.

As long as a legitimate government is in place to tell us cash/gold is worth x, fine. If there isn't, your cash turns into green pieces of paper and your gold into shiny rocks. Your gold isn't worth squat compared to my dinner.

I think you and I are on the same boat. Temporary disasters won't affect what we value in fiat currency or gold. TEOTWAWKI does.

Real goods and tangible items become the new valuables when there is no new production or society left. Gold and fiat money become almost worthless until a new warlord pops up and rebuilds some semblance of society and he can declare gold a new standard again.

SilverCity
07-30-2010, 13:42
Woofie, your argument is rather circular. Gold has value because THE MARKETPLACE gives it value. You don't want it? So what, someone will.

Gold meets the criteria of money. It's rare, has value, is divisible, and transportable. For that reason it has been considered a store of wealth.

It bought the Jews a ticket out of Nazi Germany. One ounce gold coin bought you a seat on the plane or boat leaving South Viet Nam. Nothing else. Not cash U.S., not jewelry, not good looks...one gold coin.

By the way, you CAN eat gold. You can buy cakes frosted with thin sheets of gold leaf.

wjv
07-30-2010, 13:52
Silver and Gold have industrial uses. . Especially Silver.

certifiedfunds
07-30-2010, 15:53
But even during Katrina/Rita and later Gustav cash still maintained it's buying power.

As long as a legitimate government is in place to tell us cash/gold is worth x, fine. If there isn't, your cash turns into green pieces of paper and your gold into shiny rocks. Your gold isn't worth squat compared to my dinner.

Please.

Hurricanes are regional. But you must have not talked to any Katrina refugees who couldn't access their bank funds back in NOLA and couldn't cash a NOLA check out of state.

Government doesn't tell us that "gold is worth x". :rofl:Frankly, if government had its way RIGHT NOW they'd make gold worthless.

You can come up with "what ifs" all day long.....and hypotheticals. But throughout the entire history of civilization gold has been money and wealth. I don't anticipate dealing with anything that hasn't been dealt with in the last 5000 years somewhere by somebody. I could be wrong, but I'll take the odds.

The primary purpose for gold is to protect your wealth and have a means to conduct commerce in the case of severe central bank shenanigans.

I think its been stated above, but barter is incredibly inefficient. If it weren't, we wouldn't use cash today. It won't take long to run into difficulties transacting without some form of currency.

If you have every conceivable thing you may need stocked and can perform every conceivable service you may require (including medical), and have no wealth beyond your supplies, then you're fine. Otherwise...............

G29Reload
07-30-2010, 17:22
From what I understand, a SDB is not a private possession. If I'm wrong please correct me.

dont be ignert. you know what i mean.

It IS a private posession of the bank. who rents it to you to store your private posessions.

Woofie
07-31-2010, 12:55
dont be ignert. you know what i mean.

It IS a private posession of the bank. who rents it to you to store your private posessions.

I was referring to the contents of an SDB. I remember reading about an exec order by FDR saying SDBs were subject to search by the .gov. I did a little looking into it and see that that was just a nasty rumor I had read. My bad.

emt1581
07-31-2010, 13:31
"Just accept it" doesn't explain anything to me. Gold hasn't ALWAYS been worth something. It's only been worth something since the time of the rule of law and some sort of ruler with the means to enforce contracts and guarantee that gold is currency. As long as these conditions exist, gold will always be worth something. If the government can't or won't ensure that gold is valid to pay for goods, then the guy with the goods determines whether the gold has any value. If the guy who sells me chickens doesn't need gold, then why would I accept gold as payment for the eggs?


This is why I give PM's a VERY specific place in SHTF. That place is between the time the economy/currency (dollar, euro, etc.) collapses and the time the national/international market either collapses or reports of PM's per ounce value stops being reported. Because then some groceries can go from costing one ounce to 10 or 100 ounces.

-Emt1581

Woofie
07-31-2010, 13:32
Please.

Hurricanes are regional. But you must have not talked to any Katrina refugees who couldn't access their bank funds back in NOLA and couldn't cash a NOLA check out of state.That was a response specifically to what lawman said. The reason Katrina refugess couldn't access their bank funds was for the same reason no one else using a local and regional bank could access their accounts. I couldn't access through my bank and I wasn't even in NOLA. And refugees not being able to cash their checks out of state had nothing to do with the value of paper money. It had more to do with NOLA writing nothing but bad checks.

Government doesn't tell us that "gold is worth x". :rofl:Frankly, if government had its way RIGHT NOW they'd make gold worthless.

You can come up with "what ifs" all day long.....and hypotheticals. But throughout the entire history of civilization gold has been money and wealth. I don't anticipate dealing with anything that hasn't been dealt with in the last 5000 years somewhere by somebody. I could be wrong, but I'll take the odds.

The primary purpose for gold is to protect your wealth and have a means to conduct commerce in the case of severe central bank shenanigans.

I think its been stated above, but barter is incredibly inefficient. If it weren't, we wouldn't use cash today. It won't take long to run into difficulties transacting without some form of currency.

If you have every conceivable thing you may need stocked and can perform every conceivable service you may require (including medical), and have no wealth beyond your supplies, then you're fine. Otherwise...............

I'm not arguing that gold protects your wealth and is a great investment. There has to be some form of rule of law that maintains gold can be used to pay debt, other-wise it is subject to barter just like anything else. I'm not even trying to argue that the barter system is an efficient one.

I'm saying that if there is no legitimate, widespread economic with the means to enforce contracts then the wealth that you have invested into gold is subject to barter just like everything else.

eyesnorth
07-31-2010, 18:07
Woofie...

It won't be a .gov rule of law that gives gold value and a place as a money. It will be society. If there are enough people in a society that want your gold it will have value.

I can't think of a society that has valued gold, suffered some sort of major collapse, and then, after recovery or absorption into another society, shunned gold, giving it no value. Can you?

That said, PMs play only a small role in my preps right now. Debt reduction and acquisition of assets are still at the forefront of my limited prep budget.

PartyBible
11-11-2010, 19:49
Woofie...

It won't be a .gov rule of law that gives gold value and a place as a money. It will be society. If there are enough people in a society that want your gold it will have value.

I can't think of a society that has valued gold, suffered some sort of major collapse, and then, after recovery or absorption into another society, shunned gold, giving it no value. Can you?

That said, PMs play only a small role in my preps right now. Debt reduction and acquisition of assets are still at the forefront of my limited prep budget.


PMs are no different than tullips. What do your marginal dollars buy today?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

Who is having a QEII party?

Bilbo Bagins
11-12-2010, 10:09
The only think that will definately have value if the SHTF is food and guns. Some may think I'm anti gold, I'm not, I just think at the current price of gold its simply not a wise investment. Drop $1400 right now on an ounce of gold, or get a years supply of food, I say don't be stupid and get the food. If gold was selling at $300 an ounce like it did just a few years ago, I would definately be telling people to buy gold for SHTF.

emt1581
11-12-2010, 16:03
The only think that will definately have value if the SHTF is food and guns. Some may think I'm anti gold, I'm not, I just think at the current price of gold its simply not a wise investment. Drop $1400 right now on an ounce of gold, or get a years supply of food, I say don't be stupid and get the food. If gold was selling at $300 an ounce like it did just a few years ago, I would definately be telling people to buy gold for SHTF.

How well are you eating on $1400 a year for food??

What would be the diet there?

Thanks!

-Emt1581

inzone
11-12-2010, 18:28
I think there are more shoes still to drop..... more tipping points..... public pension crisis is looming, state bankruptcies, especially Kalifornia....and the Chinese are beginning to simmer...... I keep reading more mainstream economists and experts who are becoming more and more alarmist.....I dont like any of this and I take no joy in gloom....

get out of debt.....plant a big garden..... buy plenty of beans and bullets...that's what i am doing....

Woofie
11-13-2010, 05:37
How well are you eating on $1400 a year for food??

What would be the diet there?

Thanks!

-Emt1581

I spent nearly four months unemployed. My grocery bill that entire time was roughly $130 ( yes, I kept receipts). I gained about 25 lbs.

I could become obese on $1400/ year

certifiedfunds
11-13-2010, 09:43
Who is having a QEII party?

No, not QE II, but I did go ahead and reserve a ballroom at the Four Seasons for my QE IV party.

Invitations, ballroom, 12 piece band, catering, life-sized ice sculpture of Ben Bernanke AND Alan Greenspan, small gifts from Tiffany for the ladies and a security team and I'm looking at a little over $100,000. Its gonna be grand! Expecting to be able to cover it with <5 krugerrands.

freespirit34
11-13-2010, 10:36
First of all, I disagree. The stock market has regular peaks and crashes. Some are higher or lower than others, but it is cyclic. Every generation thinks their crash is the end of everything, and they have always been wrong. I'm betting my money that this will follow the pattern.

However, let's say you're right. What is our alternative for investing? What investments are you making that are independent of the market?
Real Estate ... they ain't makin' no more of it.

emt1581
11-13-2010, 11:34
I spent nearly four months unemployed. My grocery bill that entire time was roughly $130 ( yes, I kept receipts). I gained about 25 lbs.

I could become obese on $1400/ year

Again, what was the diet?

-Emt1581

emt1581
11-13-2010, 11:36
No, not QE II, but I did go ahead and reserve a ballroom at the Four Seasons for my QE IV party.

Invitations, ballroom, 12 piece band, catering, life-sized ice sculpture of Ben Bernanke AND Alan Greenspan, small gifts from Tiffany for the ladies and a security team and I'm looking at a little over $100,000. Its gonna be grand! Expecting to be able to cover it with <5 krugerrands.

I've heard Beck and others talk about it but what is this QE II?? Is it the practice of flooding the market with new USD's? And each time they do it it's another number?

Thanks!

-Emt1581

certifiedfunds
11-13-2010, 14:28
I've heard Beck and others talk about it but what is this QE II?? Is it the practice of flooding the market with new USD's? And each time they do it it's another number?

Thanks!

-Emt1581

QE II is the second round of quantitative easing......purchasing of our own debt...monetizing the debt.....printing of money......inflating the supply.....pissing off the Chinese. Call it what you wish.

As Noriel Roubini recently tweeted (paraphrased) "QE II will be followed by QE III and QE IV and none of them will be successful in easing deflationary pressures."

And the Japanese central bank just stated that Japan's upcoming QE will make the US attempt look like child's play.

The western world is in a debt crisis. Markets are attempting to deleverage. The central banks are attempting to prevent it.

But, sure, PM prices are sure to crash any day now.:rofl:

emt1581
11-13-2010, 15:46
QE II is the second round of quantitative easing......purchasing of our own debt...monetizing the debt.....printing of money......inflating the supply.....pissing off the Chinese. Call it what you wish.

As Noriel Roubini recently tweeted (paraphrased) "QE II will be followed by QE III and QE IV and none of them will be successful in easing deflationary pressures."

And the Japanese central bank just stated that Japan's upcoming QE will make the US attempt look like child's play.

The western world is in a debt crisis. Markets are attempting to deleverage. The central banks are attempting to prevent it.

But, sure, PM prices are sure to crash any day now.:rofl:

Yeah all the nay-sayers who were badmouthing PM's have shut up recently, even the ones that were spouting non-sense who had no point. :whistling:

But as far as the QEII is there a plan to destroy the created currency at any point in the future or once is created it's permanent?

I just hate how my grandfather used to get food and chocolate milk (for some reason everything came with chocolate milk as he explained it way back when) for a penny or two and now and today the same thing would cost $3-$7 depending on location in the US... :steamed:

But as far as the current crisis...why hasn't the bottom dropped out yet? I mean, it's obvious to anyone paying attention that our money soon won't be worth much or anything. :dunno:

-Emt1581

emt1581
11-13-2010, 15:47
Also, from those who lived on very little...again...what was your diet??

-Emt1581

Catshooter
11-13-2010, 15:54
Also, from those who lived on very little...again...what was your diet??

-Emt1581

He says he gained 25 pounds in what, four months? Had to be a diet of mostly carbs.


Cat

emt1581
11-13-2010, 15:57
He says he gained 25 pounds in what, four months? Had to be a diet of mostly carbs.


Cat

That's what I was thinking. A little money will buy a LOT of pasta/rice.

Personally, I'm thinking about loading up on bags of beans, rice, and pasta myself. Right now I just have a lot of Chef Boyardee which, say what you want, it's pretty nutritious when compared to a lot of MRE/Mountain House type meals.

But dried beans/pasta/rice would just need water and would keep us going for a LOOOONNNGG time if need be. But I know there are a ton of storage threads on these things so I'm guessing there's an art to keeping it edible for decades.

-Emt1581

Woofie
11-13-2010, 17:34
He says he gained 25 pounds in what, four months? Had to be a diet of mostly carbs.


Cat

Correct. Wasn't a varied diet. Mostly beans and rice and whatever meat product was currently on sale.

Woofie
11-13-2010, 17:35
That's what I was thinking. A little money will buy a LOT of pasta/rice.

Personally, I'm thinking about loading up on bags of beans, rice, and pasta myself. Right now I just have a lot of Chef Boyardee which, say what you want, it's pretty nutritious when compared to a lot of MRE/Mountain House type meals.

But dried beans/pasta/rice would just need water and would keep us going for a LOOOONNNGG time if need be. But I know there are a ton of storage threads on these things so I'm guessing there's an art to keeping it edible for decades.

-Emt1581

From what I understand you seal it in a mylar bag with O2 absorbers. Never done it myself.

UneasyRider
11-13-2010, 18:14
But as far as the current crisis...why hasn't the bottom dropped out yet? I mean, it's obvious to anyone paying attention that our money soon won't be worth much or anything. :dunno:

-Emt1581

I don't think that anyone knows what will be the trigger but I bet that we are really close right now. It is coming into focus as we get closer and I am sure that when somebody figures it out the entire board will know about it.

Personally? I am still thinking by the end of March 2011. With the election over some interesting things should start to happen soon.

certifiedfunds
11-13-2010, 22:15
But as far as the current crisis...why hasn't the bottom dropped out yet? I mean, it's obvious to anyone paying attention that our money soon won't be worth much or anything. :dunno:

-Emt1581

The QE's are their attempt to keep the bottom from dropping out.

It won't work.

certifiedfunds
11-13-2010, 22:17
That's what I was thinking. A little money will buy a LOT of pasta/rice.

Personally, I'm thinking about loading up on bags of beans, rice, and pasta myself. Right now I just have a lot of Chef Boyardee which, say what you want, it's pretty nutritious when compared to a lot of MRE/Mountain House type meals.

But dried beans/pasta/rice would just need water and would keep us going for a LOOOONNNGG time if need be. But I know there are a ton of storage threads on these things so I'm guessing there's an art to keeping it edible for decades.

-Emt1581

EMT - you've spent how much time on the S&P board and you don't know how to store dry goods long term?

emt1581
11-13-2010, 22:17
The QE's are their attempt to keep the bottom from dropping out.

It won't work.

Are "their" fallout shelters not ready yet or what? Why do it? :dunno:

-Emt1581

certifiedfunds
11-13-2010, 22:17
Are "their" fallout shelters not ready yet or what? Why do it? :dunno:

-Emt1581

We're being looted.

kirgi08
11-13-2010, 22:20
That's not the term I'd use CF.'08.

certifiedfunds
11-13-2010, 22:28
That's not the term I'd use CF.'08.

:rofl:

emt1581
11-13-2010, 22:32
We're being looted.

Looted? For what? The money they're taking/using will soon be worth-less before being worthless...no?

-Emt1581

certifiedfunds
11-13-2010, 22:46
Looted? For what? The money they're taking/using will soon be worth-less before being worthless...no?

-Emt1581

For example: Would you care to receive interest payments on $2T that isn't yours?

emt1581
11-13-2010, 22:48
For example: Would you care to receive interest payments on $2T that isn't yours?

What if those payments were in Zimbabwe bucks?

-Emt1581

certifiedfunds
11-13-2010, 22:53
What if those payments were in Zimbabwe bucks?

-Emt1581

They aren't

certifiedfunds
11-13-2010, 22:56
Here's the rub too, EMT. The QEII is for, what? $600B?

That's the amount the TELL us.

Yet the Fed is unaudited. Not audited b/c "it might upset the markets"

Well, why would it upset the markets when you just told us $600B?

It *IS* $600B, right?

Right?

kirgi08
11-14-2010, 00:53
EMT,follow the money.CF is a whole lot smarter than I,this is his arena.We see what's going on and are doing all we can ta get set.You got a Wife/home,get ta work.We can't do it fer ya.This is not meant as a slight.'08. :wavey:

rj1939
11-14-2010, 06:30
We have declared economic war on the rest of the world.

emt1581
11-14-2010, 08:23
EMT,follow the money.CF is a whole lot smarter than I,this is his arena.We see what's going on and are doing all we can ta get set.You got a Wife/home,get ta work.We can't do it fer ya.This is not meant as a slight.'08. :wavey:

Where I need to get to work is food!! I've got most other aspects covered as much as I can afford.

-Emt1581

Warp
11-14-2010, 14:32
Interesting...

BR549
03-14-2011, 12:25
EMT - you've spent how much time on the S&P board and you don't know how to store dry goods long term?

Hmmm....

over 8 years and 24.7K posts

:dunno:

and counting.

Cajunmudman
03-14-2011, 12:31
EMT,follow the money.CF is a whole lot smarter than I,this is his arena.We see what's going on and are doing all we can ta get set.You got a Wife/home,get ta work.We can't do it fer ya.This is not meant as a slight.'08. :wavey:


Man, I can tell you personally that CF is NOT a whole lot smarter than you.... or ANYBODY, for that matter. Now, I can go back and finish reading. That line nearly made me collapse.

certifiedfunds
03-14-2011, 13:06
Man, I can tell you personally that CF is NOT a whole lot smarter than you.... or ANYBODY, for that matter. Now, I can go back and finish reading. That line nearly made me collapse.

Hopefully the president will let you start drilling holes again and get you off the Interwebs.

Maikeli7
03-14-2011, 13:19
I've heard that the magnetic poles are going to reverse on the 15th (tomorrow), and I've heard that the dollar is going to go teats up any minute, and then there are two comets coming as harbingers of doom, and there was the ghostly image of the pale white horse on news footage out of Egypt, and the talk about these being the end times because of the revolutions in the Middle East.
Please. It hasn't happened yet, despite all the doom-saying. And even if it did, what would save people is working together, not holing up in some compound with large amounts of ammo.
When are we going to stop anticipating "the end" and get busy living life as it is now?
Get busy living, people.
Besides, do you really want to live in a post-apocalyptic world?? Good luck to ya.
Oh, and this is all for naught because all your guns, ammo and food stocks will do you no good at all when the world ends in 2012 -- right????
Jeesh.
Take a look at the Japanese. They have looked into the gaping chasm of doom and what have they done? Banded together and stoically faced the challenges ahead, determined to work together to get through this latest crisis. This is life, and there are better ways to face it than despair, despoilization, despotism, and doom. This too shall pass.

Woofie
03-14-2011, 20:09
I've heard that the magnetic poles are going to reverse on the 15th (tomorrow), and I've heard that the dollar is going to go teats up any minute, and then there are two comets coming as harbingers of doom, and there was the ghostly image of the pale white horse on news footage out of Egypt, and the talk about these being the end times because of the revolutions in the Middle East.
Please. It hasn't happened yet, despite all the doom-saying. And even if it did, what would save people is working together, not holing up in some compound with large amounts of ammo.
When are we going to stop anticipating "the end" and get busy living life as it is now?
Get busy living, people.
Besides, do you really want to live in a post-apocalyptic world?? Good luck to ya.
Oh, and this is all for naught because all your guns, ammo and food stocks will do you no good at all when the world ends in 2012 -- right????
Jeesh.
Take a look at the Japanese. They have looked into the gaping chasm of doom and what have they done? Banded together and stoically faced the challenges ahead, determined to work together to get through this latest crisis. This is life, and there are better ways to face it than despair, despoilization, despotism, and doom. This too shall pass.

Beats the hell out of being dead.

certifiedfunds
03-14-2011, 20:17
I've heard that the magnetic poles are going to reverse on the 15th (tomorrow), and I've heard that the dollar is going to go teats up any minute, and then there are two comets coming as harbingers of doom, and there was the ghostly image of the pale white horse on news footage out of Egypt, and the talk about these being the end times because of the revolutions in the Middle East.
Please. It hasn't happened yet, despite all the doom-saying. And even if it did, what would save people is working together, not holing up in some compound with large amounts of ammo.
When are we going to stop anticipating "the end" and get busy living life as it is now?
Get busy living, people.
Besides, do you really want to live in a post-apocalyptic world?? Good luck to ya.
Oh, and this is all for naught because all your guns, ammo and food stocks will do you no good at all when the world ends in 2012 -- right????
Jeesh.
Take a look at the Japanese. They have looked into the gaping chasm of doom and what have they done? Banded together and stoically faced the challenges ahead, determined to work together to get through this latest crisis. This is life, and there are better ways to face it than despair, despoilization, despotism, and doom. This too shall pass.

Prepping is not just for survival. Who wants to just survive? Many prep to prosper regardless of the conditions.

And there is a whole lot of **** to hit the fan between *this* and TEOTWAWKI

Warp
03-14-2011, 20:18
Besides, do you really want to live in a post-apocalyptic world?? Good luck to ya.

Yes, I choose to live. Prosper, actually.

certifiedfunds
03-14-2011, 20:19
Beats the hell out of being dead.

Not if you're unprepared and hungry with no prospects of that changing......like this fella here.

Yeah, I'd rather an immediate death to that too.

lawman800
03-14-2011, 20:26
Beats the hell out of being dead.

The dead only know one thing, it's better to be alive.

Maikeli7
03-14-2011, 21:38
It is inherrent to our nature to band together in times of trial and tribulation. Isolating one's self in selfish defense of what little stores he can cling to is bound to fail in ignomy and futility. Humans are social animals and it is in this where we survive and eventually thrive. If the **** hits the fan, I will seek to work together with my fellow man for the betterment of my community and in the defense of my country. I took an oath to preserve, protect, and defend the constitution and the people which it protects. I have often made the pledge of allegiance to the flag and to the country for which it stands and in in whose memory it flies as testament to their sacrifice. I would rather be dead than abandon the principles so hard won by my forefathers, and I'll be god-damned before I let the doomsday mentality, full of selfish, personal survival-at-all-costs paranoia get me to abandon that which every American ought hold most sacred and honorable: our freedoms, our lands, and our sacred honor.
Unite or Die.

Warp
03-14-2011, 21:40
It is inherrent to our nature to band together in times of trial and tribulation. Isolating one's self in selfish defense of what little stores he can cling to is bound to fail in ignomy and futility. Humans are social animals and it is in this where we survive and eventually thrive. If the **** hits the fan, I will seek to work together with my fellow man for the betterment of my community and in the defense of my country. I took an oath to preserve, protect, and defend the constitution and the people which it protects. I have often made the pledge of allegiance to the flag and to the country for which it stands and in in whose memory it flies as testament to their sacrifice. I would rather be dead than abandon the principles so hard won by my forefathers, and I'll be god-damned before I let the doomsday mentality, full of selfish, personal survival-at-all-costs paranoia get me to abandon that which every American ought hold most sacred and honorable: our freedoms, our lands, and our sacred honor.
Unite or Die.


Cool story bro.

certifiedfunds
03-14-2011, 21:45
It is inherrent to our nature to band together in times of trial and tribulation. Isolating one's self in selfish defense of what little stores he can cling to is bound to fail in ignomy and futility. Humans are social animals and it is in this where we survive and eventually thrive. If the **** hits the fan, I will seek to work together with my fellow man for the betterment of my community and in the defense of my country. I took an oath to preserve, protect, and defend the constitution and the people which it protects. I have often made the pledge of allegiance to the flag and to the country for which it stands and in in whose memory it flies as testament to their sacrifice. I would rather be dead than abandon the principles so hard won by my forefathers, and I'll be god-damned before I let the doomsday mentality, full of selfish, personal survival-at-all-costs paranoia get me to abandon that which every American ought hold most sacred and honorable: our freedoms, our lands, and our sacred honor.
Unite or Die.

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

Now its selfish AND unpatriotic to prepare to take care of yourself when catastrophe strikes.

We need MORE people at the Superdome next time to honor the memory of our forefathers.

wallytoo
03-14-2011, 21:56
We prep, because I believe that watching my children starve would be more horrific than a quick death.

Maikeli7
03-15-2011, 05:25
:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

Now its selfish AND unpatriotic to prepare to take care of yourself when catastrophe strikes.

We need MORE people at the Superdome next time to honor the memory of our forefathers.
You do me dishonor by speaking out of turn on my behalf, misrepresenting my views while ridiculing them.
Taking care of yourself is all well and good, but not at the expense of your community, your country, and the fundamental values for which it stands. Rather than sit in selfish isolation and cynically waiting for the end, would it not be better to work towards avoiding the end of the world and instead strive toawards the betterment of it? It's like building a submarine in prep for a flood when working on a levee would be much more useful.
As for those who got stuck at the Superdome, I have little sympathy since they were warned well in advance of the danger and had, for the most part, the ability to evacuate the area.
I am all in favor of personal defense, responsibility, and being prepared for the dangers in life -- but erecting and imprisoning yourself in a a barbed-wire compund, armed to the teeth, with large stores of food, thinking to "survive" and surf out the end of the world while ignoring your responsibility to the surrounding community and country which you have a duty to protect -- that is reprehensible and a slap to the faces of our forefathers.

UneasyRider
03-15-2011, 07:59
...Taking care of yourself is all well and good, but not at the expense of your community, your country, and the fundamental values for which it stands. Rather than sit in selfish isolation and cynically waiting for the end, would it not be better to work towards avoiding the end of the world and instead strive toawards the betterment of it? It's like building a submarine in prep for a flood when working on a levee would be much more useful...


I am trying to understand you. Are you saying that taking extraordinary measures to prepare ourselves before hand is a negative use of our time and instead we should be using our time and money to prepare our communitities?

Maikeli7
03-15-2011, 09:13
There is a reasonable level of preparedness that does not need to go to the paranoid extreme of stockpiling food and weaponry whilst suspiciously regarding the rest of humanity and the federal government as being the evil hordes against whom one must fight in order to survive the inevitable apocalypse. Have extra food, sure. Have extra water, sure. Have weapons to defend yourself, your family, and indeed your property, sure. But at the same time, try to participate in your community and in your government to ensure that the apocalypse will not come on your watch, and that you won't be passing it down to your kids and grandkids. It seems like preppers have given up on society and regard their fellow citizens derisively, even hatefully, calling them "sheeple" and the like. Would it not be wiser to work to create a better future rather than isolate yourself in anticipation of the end of society? I'd rather future generations have a better world to live in than I have, so merely prepping for the apocalypse doesn't seem to me the best way to get to a better future. When faced with the Great Depression and the evil of the Axis powers, our grandfathers did not hole-up in compounds and pronounce that "these are the end times." They banded together and fought for their future, for our future. If we then take all that we have been given and turn into selfish, narrowminded survivalists, contemptfully viewing the society at large as evil, then we have squandered what we have been given and we disrespect our forebears. To simply say that things have gone too far and that nothing can be done but prep for the end is inexcusably selfish and defeatist, not to mention dereliction of duty as an American citizen. Be prepared for a Katrina-like disaster, but at the same time be a responsible and participatory citizen in your democracy to ensure that society will continue on for the benefit of our descendants.

racerford
03-15-2011, 09:26
I think you will find few survivalist hermits on this board. Many are in public service. Prepping, in an of itself is a service to the community as those that are prepared are not a burden to the community that need to have emergency supplies truck in to support. In fact if everyone prepared, no need for FEMA trucks at all or at least it would be limited to help those that actually had their homes destroyed.

The Great Depression was not the end of the world, WWII was not the end of the world (OK for those that died it was, but to survivors it was not).

There is a world of difference between preparation and paranoia. They are completely separate. True pessimist do not prepare, they know it is futile. The optimist prepares as he believes he will survive despite the odds

Maikeli7
03-15-2011, 09:44
But notice how you don't really hear about what people are doing to participate in their communities to make things better. At least, I haven't yet. Maybe there are many discussions and I have yet to see them on the New Posts. What I have seen is an awful lot of negative. "This is wrong;" "that is wrong" -- it all seems like people are convinced that we are headed to an inescapable doom. I think prepping can be seen on a continuum from not enough on one side, to an adequate amount in the middle, to paranoid extremism on the other side. I think it is great to be prepared for a natural disaster so you don't have to burden the community. I will be the first one to pitch in and lend a helping hand if we suffer a calamity. I have the means to do this because I work hard and plan ahead. I have no problem with people who do this. And at the same time, I work to ensure the continued success of my society--at least, the best I can in my limited way. I have volunteered, I have served on boards, I have voted, I have gone to rallies, I have done my citizenly duty and voted and petitioned for change as well. I suppose what I'm saying is that I get the feeling a lot of folks have given up, adopting a SHTF-mindset. I'm more in the middle. I believe that it is my responsibility to be both as prepared as I can reasonably be, and at the same time make sure to take part in society to ensure its future success.
As for those who laze about pathetically and throw their hands up, saying they can't find no job or that the government owes them something, I have little if no patience. I grew up on welfare, and yet I made it out of poverty. Poverty need not be cyclical and multigenerational. But what do we do to stop it? How do we get people to take responsibility and get off their butts?
Ahh, the eternal dilemma.

cyrsequipment
03-15-2011, 09:52
But what do we do to stop it? How do we get people to take responsibility and get off their butts?


Um, maybe stop paying them to not work?

Maikeli7
03-15-2011, 10:41
Um, maybe stop paying them to not work?
Totally agree! I say you get only a limited amount of assistance, and after this, you are on your own. This endless cycle of welfare families has got to stop. People have been taking far too much advantage of government programs that were meant to help people get back on their feet, not permanently rest on their arses!

Grayson
03-15-2011, 11:25
I think I follow you. But methinks you have the wrong idea about us. I don't say I speak for ALL, but would say I speak for more than just me when I say:
--We don't gleefully anticipate the collapse of the economy/society/*insert thing here*.
--We LIKE the idea of an equally-prepared community in the event of disaster
--We vote, and otherwise participate in "the process" in order to try to PREVENT any kind of collapse (among other reasons).
--While we do want an equally-prepared community, we do have negative feelings among those who COULD prep but don't. Especially as there is no excuse whatsoever in this day and time to not see a NEED to prep at least a little.
--We see the need to NOT "go it alone" in an emergency. My older brother my not have...anything, much in terms of supplies. But what he has in spades is KNOW-HOW of all things mechanical. He's saved our bacon more than once, his needs WILL be met in any disaster.

I think it all boils down to the classic answer to "why carry a gun?" or "why *insert any action to prepare for something bad* ?" Not only HOPE, but WORK for the best...but prepare for the worst!

Maikeli7
03-15-2011, 11:40
I think I follow you. But methinks you have the wrong idea about us. I don't say I speak for ALL, but would say I speak for more than just me when I say:
--We don't gleefully anticipate the collapse of the economy/society/*insert thing here*.
--We LIKE the idea of an equally-prepared community in the event of disaster
--We vote, and otherwise participate in "the process" in order to try to PREVENT any kind of collapse (among other reasons).
--While we do want an equally-prepared community, we do have negative feelings among those who COULD prep but don't. Especially as there is no excuse whatsoever in this day and time to not see a NEED to prep at least a little.
--We see the need to NOT "go it alone" in an emergency. My older brother my not have...anything, much in terms of supplies. But what he has in spades is KNOW-HOW of all things mechanical. He's saved our bacon more than once, his needs WILL be met in any disaster.

I think it all boils down to the classic answer to "why carry a gun?" or "why *insert any action to prepare for something bad* ?" Not only HOPE, but WORK for the best...but prepare for the worst!
:wavey:
Sounds great to me! It is heartening to know I am not alone in my thoughts on this. Perhaps the greatest danger is the mentality of those who say, "The government should be there to protect me and solve all my problems." Projecting this responsibility on the "government" is just as wrong as believing it is an evil "Big Brother." Personal responsibility is the thing, both in taking care of yourself and in participating in your world. Otherwise, we run the risk of turning the government into precisely what we fear it could become.
The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.

wjv
03-15-2011, 12:00
If I can take care of my family, that's one less group that FEMA has to worry about. If everyone was prepared, FEMA's job would be 10X easier. Being prepared in itself, helps the community.

racerford
03-15-2011, 12:22
But notice how you don't really hear about what people are doing to participate in their communities to make things better. At least, I haven't yet. Maybe there are many discussions and I have yet to see them on the New Posts. What I have seen is an awful lot of negative. "This is wrong;" "that is wrong" -- it all seems like people are convinced that we are headed to an inescapable doom. .......

So you want all to come on here and brag about our charitable and community works.
My non-prepping wife got CERT training, did Citizens on Patrol in a prior town we lived in, she is a Red Cross volunteer, we regularly arrange things for the cub scouts, she made a man at work's dying wish come true by getting him a suite at the Ranger's last year........ I could go on. Is this what you want to hear about?

Man does good is not really interesting to most.

Maikeli7
03-15-2011, 12:33
So you want all to come on here and brag about our charitable and community works.
My non-prepping wife got CERT training, did Citizens on Patrol in a prior town we lived in, she is a Red Cross volunteer, we regularly arrange things for the cub scouts, she made a man at work's dying wish come true by getting him a suite at the Ranger's last year........ I could go on. Is this what you want to hear about?

Man does good is not really interesting to most.
Not bragging. It's more making suggestions about things to do or things we have done to help. I care nothing for braggards, but I am interested in hearing more than just notifications of yet another problem or disaster. We get enough of that on other media. Since we make up the content here, we can take some time to talk about what we do, what we want to do, or what others do to work towards positive results in the world.
I recommend volunteering, teaching (for those who have the talent for it), serving on boards, participating in fund-raisers like charity rides (motorcycles), and spreading the word about things that matter such as up-coming votes we favor or oppose.

UneasyRider
03-15-2011, 12:38
There is a reasonable level of preparedness that does not need to go to the paranoid extreme of stockpiling food and weaponry whilst suspiciously regarding the rest of humanity and the federal government as being the evil hordes against whom one must fight in order to survive the inevitable apocalypse. Have extra food, sure. Have extra water, sure. Have weapons to defend yourself, your family, and indeed your property, sure. But at the same time, try to participate in your community and in your government to ensure that the apocalypse will not come on your watch, and that you won't be passing it down to your kids and grandkids. It seems like preppers have given up on society and regard their fellow citizens derisively, even hatefully, calling them "sheeple" and the like. Would it not be wiser to work to create a better future rather than isolate yourself in anticipation of the end of society? I'd rather future generations have a better world to live in than I have, so merely prepping for the apocalypse doesn't seem to me the best way to get to a better future. When faced with the Great Depression and the evil of the Axis powers, our grandfathers did not hole-up in compounds and pronounce that "these are the end times." They banded together and fought for their future, for our future. If we then take all that we have been given and turn into selfish, narrowminded survivalists, contemptfully viewing the society at large as evil, then we have squandered what we have been given and we disrespect our forebears. To simply say that things have gone too far and that nothing can be done but prep for the end is inexcusably selfish and defeatist, not to mention dereliction of duty as an American citizen. Be prepared for a Katrina-like disaster, but at the same time be a responsible and participatory citizen in your democracy to ensure that society will continue on for the benefit of our descendants.

I have just finished reading Atlas Shrugged so my brain is still in the producers and looters mode but anyway...

When the rest of humanity and the government run out of food, water and ammuntition history tells us that they will come for ours, so we are over prepared and legitimately paranoid as opposed to "Well that would never happen here" thinking.

We don't hate the government or the "Sheeple" we just recognize them for what they are, looters of those who produce. People who don't take responsibility for themselves or their families. Those who will call a prepared person a hoarder even though they bought before there was a shortage not during a time of shortage and demand that the preppers supplies be shared amongst those who did not prepare "How were we supposed to know?"

How many here are a cop, emt, firefighter, military or ex military? Quite a few. You are not talking to people who are hiding away and giving up. I bet the members of this board all vote, and not many for the looters who would tax and regulate us into bondage and poverty.

As life long socialist George Bernard Shaw said "If one is under twenty- five and is not a socialist, he has no heart; if one is over 25 and still a socialist he had no head."

Maikeli7
03-15-2011, 13:07
I have just finished reading Atlas Shrugged so my brain is still in the producers and looters mode but anyway...

When the rest of humanity and the government run out of food, water and ammuntition history tells us that they will come for ours, so we are over prepared and legitimately paranoid as opposed to "Well that would never happen here" thinking.

We don't hate the government or the "Sheeple" we just recognize them for what they are, looters of those who produce. People who don't take responsibility for themselves or their families. Those who will call a prepared person a hoarder even though they bought before there was a shortage not during a time of shortage and demand that the preppers supplies be shared amongst those who did not prepare "How were we supposed to know?"

How many here are a cop, emt, firefighter, military or ex military? Quite a few. You are not talking to people who are hiding away and giving up. I bet the members of this board all vote, and not many for the looters who would tax and regulate us into bondage and poverty.

As life long socialist George Bernard Shaw said "If one is under twenty- five and is not a socialist, he has no heart; if one is over 25 and still a socialist he had no head."
Not sure why you mentioned socialism, but in case you think I'm among those who think socialism is the solution, you have mistaken me for someone else.
I'm a free-market capitalist, and a believer in constitutional, participatory, representative democracy. I do not believe in blindly following any party line or any dogma espoused by either the left or the right. The government is and ought ever be of the people, by the people, and for the people. And if anyone says it isn't and that the government is out of control, then it is incumbent upon him to work to change that.
I don't download my views unquestioned from Fox or CNN. I think they are all full of bull, and I regard everything with a healthy sense of skepticism.
At the same time, having the notion of "sheeple," i.e., those who would loot and steal from you what is yours because they were irresponsible, is itself problematic because it sets up an oppositional relationship without end. Sure, there are bad people out there, I get it. That's why I am prepared to defend myself. But having this mentality that there are these shadowy figures circling the encampment like hungry wolves sets up a situation where we harden our hearts to those who might truly be victims of a tragic set of circumstances such as the people who were inundated in the tsunami or people who are truly victims of other things which are unavoidable like tornados or earthquakes. I worry that this country is turning against itself in polemic vitriol, seeking to find difference and something to oppose rather than to find common ground. Seeing our fellow Americans primarily as potential threats is, in my view, paranoid, and it serves to further alienate people from one another.
Trust is not a weakness, belief not a flaw, hope not delusional, and altruism is to be revered, not disdained.
But mess with me or my family and the gloves are off.
Basically. You see what I mean? I believe in being nice until being nice is no longer an option. And then you better be ready to be not so nice, and so on. But above all, strive to be honorable and just in all things.

racerford
03-15-2011, 15:14
....... but I am interested in hearing more than just notifications of yet another problem or disaster. We get enough of that on other media. Since we make up the content here, we can take some time to talk about what we do, what we want to do, or what others do to work towards positive results in the world.......

If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem.

Everyone is free to start a thread. if you want threads about things people do to work towards positive results in the world, start a thread about what you are doing and invite comment. If you are going to post on this sub-forum make sure it relates to preparedness.

Good Luck!

Maikeli7
03-15-2011, 17:53
If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem.

Everyone is free to start a thread. if you want threads about things people do to work towards positive results in the world, start a thread about what you are doing and invite comment. If you are going to post on this sub-forum make sure it relates to preparedness.

Good Luck!
I take my leave of this thread now, but with this parting observation: Preparedness means more than hording, stockpiling, and regarding your fellow man with suspicion, derision, and thinly-veiled contempt. Perhaps my words fall on blind eyes.
Good luck indeed.

bdcochran
03-15-2011, 19:10
I am sure that there are a lot of people here who volunteer.

1. former scout campmaster;
2. temporary judge of the superior court;
3. donate blood every two months - now have done ovr 10 gallons.
4. scholarships for women at two universities.

so what? There are two kinds of problems in the world - the kind you can do something about and the kind you cannot do anything about.

Comparisons: I weight lift every day. I try to keep in good physical condition. Conversely, there isn't anything I can do for a person who insists on eating improper food, doesn't exercise, relies upon pills for good health to the exclusion of exercise totally. Am I supposed to dictate what food is served in school? Am I supposed to punish people for having diabetes? What is it that you want to people to volunteer to do for other people who have no interest in exercising? Absolute silence.


Ranting and raving about welfare, cycles of welfare, dumbness in the government is unavailing.

Telling other people that they don't do enough is profoundly dumb.

I am sitting in a restaurant in Europe. A couple sitting with me fought in the resistance in Holland. They put their lives on the line. A guy comes up and joins us. I am silent. They mention that they are from Holland. He just ups and tells them that the Dutch didn't do enough in WWII. The couple just get up and leave the table.

One recent news article is about a guy found on the roof of his home 10 miles out at sea. Downplayed are the facts that he and his wife returned home despite knowing a tsunami was coming. She apparently died. Another article is about a family that returned to rescue a pet. How does volunteerism relate to dumbness?

Every year there are hurricanes in the Central America area. Every year the governments are not prepared. Every year the call goes out for donations. What is a volunteer supposed to do? Overthrow a government? Tithe? Just what?

Hey, in Florida, there are hurricances every year. Every year there are traffic jams leaving Dodge, the gasoline runs out, the generators are gone from the stores, and no bread is on the shelves. Now how is volunteerism supposed to help?



If history is an indication, most members of this forum will die in accidents, of circulatory disease or cancer. They know it. Yet, everyone of us imperfect.

Aceman
03-15-2011, 19:28
I am sure that there are a lot of people here who volunteer.

1. former scout campmaster;
2. temporary judge of the superior court;
3. donate blood every two months - now have done ovr 10 gallons.
4. scholarships for women at two universities.

so what? There are two kinds of problems in the world - the kind you can do something about and the kind you cannot do anything about.

Comparisons: I weight lift every day. I try to keep in good physical condition. Conversely, there isn't anything I can do for a person who insists on eating improper food, doesn't exercise, relies upon pills for good health to the exclusion of exercise totally. Am I supposed to dictate what food is served in school? Am I supposed to punish people for having diabetes? What is it that you want to people to volunteer to do for other people who have no interest in exercising? Absolute silence.


Ranting and raving about welfare, cycles of welfare, dumbness in the government is unavailing.

Telling other people that they don't do enough is profoundly dumb.

I am sitting in a restaurant in Europe. A couple sitting with me fought in the resistance in Holland. They put their lives on the line. A guy comes up and joins us. I am silent. They mention that they are from Holland. He just ups and tells them that the Dutch didn't do enough in WWII. The couple just get up and leave the table.

One recent news article is about a guy found on the roof of his home 10 miles out at sea. Downplayed are the facts that he and his wife returned home despite knowing a tsunami was coming. She apparently died. Another article is about a family that returned to rescue a pet. How does volunteerism relate to dumbness?

Every year there are hurricanes in the Central America area. Every year the governments are not prepared. Every year the call goes out for donations. What is a volunteer supposed to do? Overthrow a government? Tithe? Just what?

Hey, in Florida, there are hurricances every year. Every year there are traffic jams leaving Dodge, the gasoline runs out, the generators are gone from the stores, and no bread is on the shelves. Now how is volunteerism supposed to help?



If history is an indication, most members of this forum will die in accidents, of circulatory disease or cancer. They know it. Yet, everyone of us imperfect.

Fantastic post BD. Not sure what it has to do with the "mysterious activity" in the banking industry mentioned the OPD...

bdcochran
03-15-2011, 19:52
You absolutely correct. I was responding to an assertion (as the thread was going off topic) that you guys don't volunteer for public service and instead are focused on excluding people. I don't buy that for a moment.

certifiedfunds
03-15-2011, 19:59
I think it has a little to do with the way this fella rolls in here in January and proceeds to preach to us in a condescending manner while striking the wiser than thou pose.

quake
03-15-2011, 20:02
...If history is an indication, most members of this forum will die in accidents, of circulatory disease or cancer. They know it. Yet, everyone of us imperfect.

+1. My father is 87, but I don't expect to live anywhere near that mark; he's more normal-sized than I am, and people my size typically don't hit real old age. You see plenty of 80+ year-old men, but you don't see many great big 80+ year-old men, and even if I was at my perfect weight (probably 25-30 lbs lighter), I still wouldn't expect to. Like the man said in some movie, "You never see old giants, do you..?"

That's not to be maudlin, just a perspective-maker and a motivator. My boys may have another 10 or 15 years with me and that's likely about it; so it's on me to make sure they're the best, and best-protected, that they can be in that time frame. Same with my wife - the women in her family tend to live a long time; odds are she'll end up a widow, so again it's on me to do the best by her that I can.

Not depressed or worried about mortality; I've read the end of the book and no fears there at all. Just a recognition that while I'm here, "prepping" for their care is a major part of my job.

Crap; now I want a bourbon & coke, but none where I am... :embarassed:

Maikeli7
03-15-2011, 20:31
I think it has a little to do with the way this fella rolls in here in January and proceeds to preach to us in a condescending manner while striking the wiser than thou pose.

Free country, pal. Just because I am "new" does not invalidate my viewpoints. The banking industry relates to preparedness? My posts are off-topic? Ridiculous! Y'all missed my entire point! Being prepared does not merely mean taking care of your own, small, selfish interests. Preparedness also means voting, running for election to neighborhood boards, city council, etc., where policy changes can be made. It means going down to the levee when the river rises, chipping in your labor to sandbag and keep the town from getting inundated -- rather than snidely dismissing the struggle as just another case of the sheeple being ignorant and unprepared.
And as for that guy who makes all kinds of smarmy statements asking how volunteerism is supposed to help: Ask my sister, whose house was burned down to the ground by a stalker on x-mas eve how volunteerism helps. Ask all the people of England how volunteerism helps when, despite the draft, Americans lined up in droves to volunteer to serve in World War II.
Disasters happen and people are not always prepared. Does this mean we should "condescend" to them and say, "It's your own damned fault. Die. You can't have my can of beans."
I'm sure all y'all are at this very second dismissing me and everything I stand for by pasting me as condescending, new, other. And you miss the point.
If the SHTF, I'll be with my community, pitching in, helping out, not judging, not deciding who desrves help and who doesn't. And in the meantime, I'm doing more than just sitting around waiting for the end, looking for signs of it in every bit of bad news that the media endlessly spout.
BTW: Today was supposed to be the day when the magnetic poles reversed, sending the world into all sorts of doom.
Didn't happen. Another prepper disappointed, sitting in his compound, surrounded by heaps of MREs, weaponry, ammo, and iodine.

I'm going to be over on the thread I started:
"Ask not what your country can do for you. . ."
Talk all the trash you want about that "fella." I'll be over there, ready to hash it out with you till the cows come home.

certifiedfunds
03-15-2011, 21:23
Free country, pal. Just because I am "new" does not invalidate my viewpoints. The banking industry relates to preparedness? My posts are off-topic? Ridiculous! Y'all missed my entire point! Being prepared does not merely mean taking care of your own, small, selfish interests. Preparedness also means voting, running for election to neighborhood boards, city council, etc., where policy changes can be made. It means going down to the levee when the river rises, chipping in your labor to sandbag and keep the town from getting inundated -- rather than snidely dismissing the struggle as just another case of the sheeple being ignorant and unprepared.
And as for that guy who makes all kinds of smarmy statements asking how volunteerism is supposed to help: Ask my sister, whose house was burned down to the ground by a stalker on x-mas eve how volunteerism helps. Ask all the people of England how volunteerism helps when, despite the draft, Americans lined up in droves to volunteer to serve in World War II.
Disasters happen and people are not always prepared. Does this mean we should "condescend" to them and say, "It's your own damned fault. Die. You can't have my can of beans."
I'm sure all y'all are at this very second dismissing me and everything I stand for by pasting me as condescending, new, other. And you miss the point.
If the SHTF, I'll be with my community, pitching in, helping out, not judging, not deciding who desrves help and who doesn't. And in the meantime, I'm doing more than just sitting around waiting for the end, looking for signs of it in every bit of bad news that the media endlessly spout.
BTW: Today was supposed to be the day when the magnetic poles reversed, sending the world into all sorts of doom.
Didn't happen. Another prepper disappointed, sitting in his compound, surrounded by heaps of MREs, weaponry, ammo, and iodine.

I'm going to be over on the thread I started:
"Ask not what your country can do for you. . ."
Talk all the trash you want about that "fella." I'll be over there, ready to hash it out with you till the cows come home.

My, my, my.........

There has been a lot of water under the bridge with this bunch. I believe you have some constructive viewpoints to contribute. I would suggest you check your attitude at the door and you might be engaged in more meaningful dialogue with many of the people you so readily paint with your broad brush.

Frankly, "pal" you came in here pointing fingers and criticizing. If you want a real discussion you might re-evaluate your presentation.

kirgi08
03-15-2011, 21:35
Well said my friend.'08.