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RWBlue
06-12-2011, 12:53
There are a lot of variables in the world, but......

What are the odds of any one CCWer of having a AD?

What are the odds of actually NEEDING a gun?

What are the odds of having a CCW and not having a chance to draw and put it on target before ....? (Thinking there are CCW rigs that are not much of the first C and there are CCW rigs where there are first C is great, but the draw is slow.)

What are the odds of of running out of ammo for the CCW?

What are the odds of a good shoot going to court?

What are the odds of having your name released to the public if you have to shoot?

What other good statistical questions are there?

hockeyrcks9901
06-12-2011, 12:57
I don't know the answers to those questions but as long as it's above 0%, I'm carrying.

David Armstrong
06-12-2011, 13:30
You don't get actual quantifiable data for a lot of these things, it is more of a qualitative nature. So you don't get actual odds on a number of them, but you do get broader generalities which will also change depending on things like where you are, your situation and equipment, etc.

SouthernBoyVA
06-12-2011, 14:59
There are a lot of variables in the world, but......

What are the odds of any one CCWer of having a AD?
Virtually impossible to gauge.

What are the odds of actually NEEDING a gun?
Zero percent... until it's 100%.

What are the odds of having a CCW and not having a chance to draw and put it on target before ....? (Thinking there are CCW rigs that are not much of the first C and there are CCW rigs where there are first C is great, but the draw is slow.)
Better than being in the same situation and NOT being armed because at least if you were armed and had a chance to try.

What are the odds of of running out of ammo for the CCW?
High if you can't stop the threat which continues to be a threat.

What are the odds of a good shoot going to court?
Not very great if you live in a state where their government fears the people.

What are the odds of having your name released to the public if you have to shoot?
Very good question.


What other good statistical questions are there?
Do you have car insurance, homeowner's insurance, a spare tire, bandages?

kensteele
06-12-2011, 16:40
I recognise that a lot of folks think car insurance and a spare tire are the same thing as a firearm and in some respects, they are. But for all intents and purposes, when it comes to the average family, they are not.

Car insurance is a mandatory state requirement. If it were not, many more people would forgo it just like they forgo health insurance today. But since we must have car insurance, we sign a contract and we know the terms. It's in black and white and it basically covers the financial risk to your property and your liability. Unlike a firearm, it has no effect on the situation at hand. It doesn't prevent an accident and it doesn't help save a life and it doesn't [materially] change anything that happens during the course of the entire event. It doesn't effectively affect the way you routinely operate a motor vehicle and it cannot be used against you (outside of the terms that you agreed to in the contract). You know what you are getting with car insurance, or at least you have a pretty good idea.

A spare tire. The only reason why most people have a spare tire is because it was already there when they took possession of the car. When you hire a car, do you check to see if there is a spare in the trunk, do you even care? Honestly for everyday life, I really don't care to have a spare tire. But technology and circumstances have made it too easy to forgo the spare tire. It's lightweight and doesn't cost you in gas mileage, it's easy to install yourself without any special tools or skills, and it's included in the price of your new vehicle purchase so the industry norm has basically forced a spare tire on many of us who would not ordinary seek to pay extra to obtain one, take special training to know how to use one, or do the maintenance of upkeep required to ensure you get the most bang for the buck. If it were not for TPMS, I would have no idea if my spare tire was flat or not. I have a cellphone and AAA and for local use, I have no need for a spare tire and if they would knock off $2,000 the price of my new car purchase, I would go for it. However, conditions are such that it isn't practically to go without car insurance or a spare tire. I can't really think of one important negative for keeping a spare tire in the trunk or keeping your auto insurance current.

Conditions (in my neighborhood) are ripe for going without a handgun, a permit, and the maintenance and upkeep and training, and risk to using a firearm (civil liability, criminal liability, legal fees, mental and physical toll, etc). Low crime, surveillance cameras, good police force, cellphone, high situational awareness, lots of people around and other available (inexpensive) tools. Unlike a spare or car insurance, there are at least a couple of negatives if not more for keeping a firearm...to go along with those positives. In some states, accidentally carrying a firearm where you shouldn't can put you in jail. Are there any states where the driver should be concerned about driving to with an insurance card or a spare tire in his possession? In some states, failure to immediately declare your firearm can get you arrested. Are there some states where I can get arrested for having a unlawful spare tire or non-compliant (minimum) car insurance? If you have a firearm on your person and the police see it, you put yourself in a bad position. Have the police ever shot someone over insurance or a spare tire?

If you purchased your home and it came with home defense weapons and portable weapons that you can take on the go, complete with a legal permit and paid self-defense insurance, a lawyer, and full instructions, you'd see more armed people. However, not everyone is proficient with a weapon (so they're afraid to complicate their lives with one), not everyone knows the law or trust the law (so they'd rather not shoot someone), not everyone can afford the perceived financial burden for it's legal or illegal use, and believe it or not, quite a few people believe they would rather take the chance on ending up dead than go to prison for the rest of their life (right or wrong) for making a mistake or being right but judged by your peers otherwise.

Right or wrong, if you bring a gun into a bad situation where there is otherwise no gun, the odds of someone being hurt with that gun are higher. Most likely it's the other guy that will be stopped but what are the chances that gun is taken from you and maybe used on your family? How would you feel if they got the drop on your physically, held you down, found out you had a gun and felt you would going to shoot them, so they took your gun and shot your wife? It has happened. If you didn't bring that gun, somebody would be alive. If you didn't bring that gun, you might not be alive. Either. Depends on what you can "live" with. Some people think they would prefer to die in the street than have their gun taken and their family shot with it. A lot of people fear their gun would wind on the street to hurt someone else later.

I go back to my argument from years ago, do you carry heart medicine in your pocket? The facts are clear. A sudden massive heart attack can silently and quickly strike anyone at anytime (no matter your age or medical condition or physical location or time of day) and it can be a vicious and ruthless killer. I'd rather face Charles Manson on an empty deserted street at midnite unarmed than face a massive killer heart attack while in the emergency room at the nation's finest hospital. Apparently taking "heart medicine" immediately will go a long way to help, it's expensive, there are no laws to worry about, it's very lightweight and convenient, and most importantly it really helps if you can take it or have someone nearby administer it. Do you keep them in your pocket because you don't know when a heart attack will strike, you can't see it coming, no situational awareness will effectively work, none of your traditional weapons will work very well and it can't be reasoned with? The facts are clear, it puts down a lot of people....a lot. You KNOW it's a concern, for all of us. If we're going to protect ourselves from the street threat, why not take similar measures to protect ourselves from an even bigger threat?

I think it's unfair when a person asks you why you conceal a firearm for personal protection for you to respond with "why do you buy car insurance or why do you carry a spare tire?" It simply isn't the same. Instead we should respond with the truth why we made our choices and acknowledge that a firearm for personal protection is not everyone's cup of tea. Or you can be like me and refuse to comment either way on the matter. YMMV :)

Seraph
06-12-2011, 16:45
The odds are that, if you somehow end up in a gunfight, and you don't have a gun, then you're screwed.

The odds are that, if you shoot your pistol empty in said gunfight, and you don't have a reload, then you're screwed.

Don't play the odds. Do as much as you reasonably can to avoid getting screwed.

RWBlue
06-12-2011, 18:03
Adding information.

There are a lot of variables in the world, but......

What are the odds of any one CCWer of having a AD?
Fairly easy to calculate if the data is available. The raw numbers are number of permits issues and number of ADs.

What are the odds of actually NEEDING a gun?
I have carried a spare tire in my vehicle since I started driving, I have only "needed" it once. This does not make the need 100%. This number could also be calculated per year. How many people have flat tires while traveling? This is a very hard number to calculate for flat tires, but should be easy to calculate for guns. "How many violent crimes are committed each year compared to total number of people?"

What are the odds of having a CCW and not having a chance to draw and put it on target before ....? (Thinking there are CCW rigs that are not much of the first C and there are CCW rigs where there are first C is great, but the draw is slow.) I assume someone is keeping track of this number. "He had a guns, but didn't get a shot off?"

What are the odds of of running out of ammo for the CCW? I think this number is very slim, but would love to see the stats on people shooting until they are out of ammo.

What are the odds of a good shoot going to court?

What are the odds of having your name released to the public if you have to shoot?

What other good statistical questions are there?

Why isn't someone keeping better track of these numbers?

David Armstrong
06-12-2011, 21:56
The odds are that, if you somehow end up in a gunfight, and you don't have a gun, then you're screwed.

The odds are that, if you shoot your pistol empty in said gunfight, and you don't have a reload, then you're screwed.

Don't play the odds. Do as much as you reasonably can to avoid getting screwed.
Actually you do play the odds on a regular basis, whether you realize it or not.

Seraph
06-12-2011, 23:06
Actually you do play the odds on a regular basis, whether you realize it or not.

What do you mean, Mr. Armstrong?

RWBlue
06-13-2011, 08:13
What do you mean, Mr. Armstrong?

I am not Mr. Armstrong, but I think I can answer the question.

I assume you drive.
I assume you drive on 2 lane road in the country some of the time.

Head on crashes at 110MPH have a high probability of killing the people in the car.
What is amazing is everyone is zooming around at 55MPH just inches away from someone else zooming along at 55MHP.

You are betting your life that the other guy doesn't cross the yellow line.

Most of the time, this is a good bet, but every once and a while.....crash.

Should this keep you from driving on two lane roads? I don't think so.
Should this mean that you only drive on 2 lanes roads when driving a brinks truck? I don't think so..
Should this mean that you shouldn't over drive (driver faster than the distance you can see/stop)? Probably, but most of us don't. We drive 55+ MPH on curvy roads where someone could be stopped, just around the corner.

Seraph
06-13-2011, 08:31
I am not Mr. Armstrong, but I think I can answer the question.

I assume you drive.
I assume you drive on 2 lane road in the country some of the time.

Head on crashes at 110MPH have a high probability of killing the people in the car.
What is amazing is everyone is zooming around at 55MPH just inches away from someone else zooming along at 55MHP.

You are betting your life that the other guy doesn't cross the yellow line.

Most of the time, this is a good bet, but every once and a while.....crash.

Should this keep you from driving on two lane roads? I don't think so.
Should this mean that you only drive on 2 lanes roads when driving a brinks truck? I don't think so..
Should this mean that you shouldn't over drive (driver faster than the distance you can see/stop)? Probably, but most of us don't. We drive 55+ MPH on curvy roads where someone could be stopped, just around the corner.

I think everyone over the age of 17 understands this elementary concept. I was just wondering if Mr. Armstrong had something more profound in mind.

jhon
06-13-2011, 08:54
Statistic's for the most part are only numbers. Unless these numbers can be verified and documented with verifiable proof, they really mean nothing.

Any one can make up statistics to say what ever they want them to say or to show to a party.

If one is searching for a specific statistic or statistics, make sure as I said above that it can be verified and documented. Not just some yahoo said that some joe said that some jimbo said is going to make it so.

If any of us was that good with statistics, we all would be out at Vegas or Atlantic city.

All of us can come up with ' what ifs '. That doesn't mean it is or it will.

fuzzy03cls
06-13-2011, 09:27
I don't play the percentage game. I take it as it comes.

dosei
06-13-2011, 09:59
What are the odds of having your name released to the public if you have to shoot?

About as close to 100% as you can get.

dosei
06-13-2011, 10:23
Why isn't someone keeping better track of these numbers?

Because collecting and maintaining the data your wanting would be a full time job for a several people, all working together. Who is going to fund these data monkeys? Like most things, it is a matter of time and money. What your asking for would take a fair bit of both.

John Rambo
06-13-2011, 10:27
The odds are, averaged across the US, about .50%(thats 1 in 200) per year, that you're involved in a violent crime. That would warrant needing a gun. All other odds increase exponentially from there. Except the court and name released to the public. They aren't exactly exponential increases.

RWBlue
06-13-2011, 10:34
I think everyone over the age of 17 understands this elementary concept. I was just wondering if Mr. Armstrong had something more profound in mind.

You get it, so you have common (or should I say less common) sense. I am amazed at the number of people I deal with which don't get the concept.

They believe security is like a light switch. It is turned on and turned off.

I play the odds every day. Should we do this, shouldn't we do this. Are we spending more on securing an asset than it is worth. Is it our problem or someone elses' problem. If it is their problem, but still impacts us....

I am amazed at how many people don't really understand risk and make the WRONG decision based only on gut feelings.

RWBlue
06-13-2011, 11:09
Because collecting and maintaining the data your wanting would be a full time job for a several people, all working together. Who is going to fund these data monkeys? Like most things, it is a matter of time and money. What your asking for would take a fair bit of both.

I just assumed that FBI or DOJ would gather this data and it would take more than a few people to sort through the information and draw conclusions.

Heck we could use BOC 9 out of 10 years to do this work. They are good with stats.

David Armstrong
06-13-2011, 12:13
What do you mean, Mr. Armstrong?
Let me quote from another forum member (degoodman) on this issue:
"....every time we take action based on an observation with an expectation of the outcome, we are engaging in our own little game of probability and statistics."

We play the odds every day several times a day with many things we do.

David Armstrong
06-13-2011, 12:19
Statistic's for the most part are only numbers. Unless these numbers can be verified and documented with verifiable proof, they really mean nothing.
That is not quite accurate. Statistics are not only numbers. Statistics are an analysis of number that then describe certain concepts or items. As for the verification/proof issue that is true of pretty much everything, not unique to stats.
Any one can make up statistics to say what ever they want them to say or to show to a party.
All the better reason to understand stats yourself so yo can know when that is happening.
If any of us was that good with statistics, we all would be out at Vegas or Atlantic city.
There are a number of folks that make very good livings as professional gamblers because, in large part, they are that good with statistics.
All of us can come up with ' what ifs '. That doesn't mean it is or it will.
True, which is why we need stats to help us figure out the likelihood of a "what if."

David Armstrong
06-13-2011, 12:22
Why isn't someone keeping better track of these numbers?
Because it is an absolute nightmare to do so. Just doing it on a limited basis (NYPD SOP9) takes a lot of resources, and that is with mandatory reporting in a standardized format.

Seraph
06-13-2011, 12:32
Let me quote from another forum member (degoodman) on this issue:
"....every time we take action based on an observation with an expectation of the outcome, we are engaging in our own little game of probability and statistics."

We play the odds every day several times a day with many things we do.

Yes, we do, but the stakes, in some games, are higher than they are in others. I'm much more likely to need the four barf bags I keep in the glove compartment of my car, than I am to need my sidearm. However, the consequences of lacking my sidearm, should I come to need it, are far worse than the consequences of lacking a barf bag. Without the barf bag, I will definitely live to barf another day. Even WITH a good sidearm on my hip, the outlook is not as clear, but I will have it, to maximize my chances to the degree to which I reasonably can.

dosei
06-13-2011, 12:42
I just assumed that FBI or DOJ would gather this data and it would take more than a few people to sort through the information and draw conclusions.

The US is in deep enough debt already....last thing we need is to be spending money on stuff like this.

David Armstrong
06-13-2011, 12:44
Yes, we do, but the stakes, in some games, are higher than they are in others. I'm much more likely to need the four barf bags I keep in the glove compartment of my car, than I am to need my sidearm. However, the consequences of lacking my sidearm, should I come to need it, are far worse than the consequences of lacking a barf bag. Without the barf bag, I will definitely live to barf another day. Even WITH a good sidearm on my hip, the outlook is not as clear, but I will have it, to maximize my chances to the degree to which I reasonably can.
OK, but that is a different issue than "you do play the odds on a regular basis, whether you realize it or not" which was the follow up to "Don't play the odds". You do play the odds. In fact, one pretty much has to play the odds, there is no choice. The stakes of the game is a completely different issue. The stakes might impact how you play those odds but they don't change the fact that you still play the odds.

RWBlue
06-13-2011, 13:33
Yes, we do, but the stakes, in some games, are higher than they are in others. I'm much more likely to need the four barf bags I keep in the glove compartment of my car, than I am to need my sidearm. However, the consequences of lacking my sidearm, should I come to need it, are far worse than the consequences of lacking a barf bag. Without the barf bag, I will definitely live to barf another day. Even WITH a good sidearm on my hip, the outlook is not as clear, but I will have it, to maximize my chances to the degree to which I reasonably can.

You are moving from probability to impact.

These numbers should be tracked separately. Then you can make a graph with probability on the x and impact on the y or the other way around. The items with high impact and high probability need to be dwelt with first.


And remember there three types of lies. There are Lies, Dammed lies and Statistics.

RWBlue
06-13-2011, 13:40
If any of us was that good with statistics, we all would be out at Vegas or Atlantic city.



There are a number of folks that make very good livings as professional gamblers because, in large part, they are that good with statistics.


If you are playing poker, it is mostly about playing the other players.

If you are playing blackjack, it is mostly about playing the statistical probability.
(It can and has been done with great success. I had a girlfriend who's family would go to Vegas every year and come home with enough winnings to pay for the trip. I am decent with stats, but I am not quick enough and don't have a good enough short term memory to be great at it..)

If you are playing any other game of chance you are pretty much throwing you money away.

RWBlue
06-13-2011, 13:42
The US is in deep enough debt already....last thing we need is to be spending money on stuff like this.

I like it when decisions are made from real numbers in an open environment.

If the Gov. did more of this, we would have less bad decisions.

dosei
06-13-2011, 13:55
I like it when decisions are made from real numbers in an open environment.

If the Gov. did more of this, we would have less bad decisions.

Really....

remember there three types of lies. There are Lies, Dammed lies and Statistics.

So if the government is tasked with collecting, sorting, analyzing, and drawing conclusions...you or people like you will then whine that the data collection was not done right, or not analyzed right, or the conclusion was in error.....blah, blah, blah.....

Ever hear of "analysis paralysis"?

Seraph
06-13-2011, 14:06
OK, but that is a different issue than "you do play the odds on a regular basis, whether you realize it or not" which was the follow up to "Don't play the odds". You do play the odds. In fact, one pretty much has to play the odds, there is no choice. The stakes of the game is a completely different issue. The stakes might impact how you play those odds but they don't change the fact that you still play the odds.

You're correct. I should have more accurately said, "Don't bet exuberantly, when the stakes are high, even when the odds appear to be slanted in your favor." But you knew what I meant. I think I've made it pretty clear that I tend toward caution, preparedness, and careful hedging of bets.

David Armstrong
06-13-2011, 15:44
If you are playing poker, it is mostly about playing the other players.
True, but you still need to know the stats if you are going to play your hand well.
If you are playing blackjack, it is mostly about playing the statistical probability.
(It can and has been done with great success. I had a girlfriend who's family would go to Vegas every year and come home with enough winnings to pay for the trip. I am decent with stats, but I am not quick enough and don't have a good enough short term memory to be great at it..)
Yes, I've got a friend who does that. He says the trick is to win just enough that you don't draw the attention of the casino.
If you are playing any other game of chance you are pretty much throwing you money away.
I like baccarat and roulette. House still has an advantage, but not much.

And remember there three types of lies. There are Lies, Dammed lies and Statistics.
Not quite. Statistics are just mathematics, and they do not lie. They are only as good as the data put into them, but the stats are the stats. People can and do certainly lie about stats, but the formulas themselves are accurate.

vafish
06-13-2011, 16:26
If my math is right a woman in the US has about a .3% chance of being raped in any given year.

Ask a woman who was raped if that low percentage means anything to her.

And to whoever asked I do carry a small pill bottle on my key ring with a couple of aspirin in it to chew in case of a heart attack.

Kegs
06-13-2011, 16:43
There are a lot of variables in the world, but......

What are the odds of any one CCWer of having a AD?

Very high, I'd be surprised if this hasn't happened yet.

What are the odds of actually NEEDING a gun? absolutely 0.

What are the odds of having a CCW and not having a chance to draw and put it on target before ....? (Thinking there are CCW rigs that are not much of the first C and there are CCW rigs where there are first C is great, but the draw is slow.) Very high.


What are the odds of of running out of ammo for the CCW? Depends on the scenario.

What are the odds of a good shoot going to court?Very high.

What are the odds of having your name released to the public if you have to shoot?High.

What other good statistical questions are there?What is probability that anyone replies with an answer that has a reasonable statistical significance to any of these questions?:

A: very low.

Edited to add that this Armstrong dude understands statistics, which is cool.

Statistics don't lie, economists do.

RWBlue
06-13-2011, 19:08
Really....



So if the government is tasked with collecting, sorting, analyzing, and drawing conclusions...you or people like you will then whine that the data collection was not done right, or not analyzed right, or the conclusion was in error.....blah, blah, blah.....

Ever hear of "analysis paralysis"?

Having been part of the gov. where people collected, sorted, analyzed and drew conclusions from the data, I can tell you that people always complain and there were lawsuits and their were freedom of information requests and ........

I always look at it like all the complaining and lawsuits and freedom of information requests and ....... kept the people honest.

RWBlue
06-13-2011, 19:14
Not quite. Statistics are just mathematics, and they do not lie. They are only as good as the data put into them, but the stats are the stats. People can and do certainly lie about stats, but the formulas themselves are accurate.

I find that if you ask the correct questions, you can usually get the correct numbers coming out the far end.


BTW, that was a Mark Twain ism.

SouthernBoyVA
06-14-2011, 06:07
If my math is right a woman in the US has about a .3% chance of being raped in any given year.

Ask a woman who was raped if that low percentage means anything to her.

And to whoever asked I do carry a small pill bottle on my key ring with a couple of aspirin in it to chew in case of a heart attack.

Here's one that most don't know (I didn't). There are more rapes committed against men than women in the U.S. but there are more women than men raped in the U.S.

Think prison and yes, it's a trick question.

SouthernBoyVA
06-14-2011, 06:24
Car insurance is a mandatory state requirement.

Not in my state.

The owning and carrying of a firearm is a personal choice and until or unless we as a people, ever get to the point of national catastrophic breakdown and civil unrest, that is the way it should remain.

Notwithstanding one's state/local laws, what decision they might take regarding their own safety and whether or not it needs to include a firearm is for them to decide... not for any of us to debate or criticize in my opinion. We as enthusiasts and hopefully informed armed members of the population, are here to offer whatever support and information we can to help those who have questions and are new to all of this as they wind their way into the "gun culture" and society of armed Americans.

I generally take the position that honest questions deserve honest answers. And analogies, be they the decision to carry insurance or a fire extinguisher, or anything similar, are simply methods to open conversation and to get people new to all of this to asking more questions and to thinking about what they hear and read.

The carrying of a defensive sidearm is nothing magical, special, unique, or mystical. It is a right and along with that right, one assumes a responsibility to themselves and the general public at large. The more one can learn about this, the more training and reiteration of facts and laws and such, can only serve to help and perhaps in the end, keep someone out of harm's way whether that harm is a BG or a court of law.

So I say ask away.... that's what most of us are here for.

FireGuy
06-14-2011, 17:26
"Chance you will need to use that concealed weapon" -
For me, it's happened three times with the first in 1986, the second in 2003, and the third in 2004.
Guess my numbers keep others from having this experience.
Never had to shoot, but would have been dead if I was unarmed.
Stats are great unless you are the .05%. :upeyes:

David Armstrong
06-14-2011, 17:36
"Stats are great unless you are the .05%. :upeyes:
See, that is the problem so many have with stats and failing to understand them. The stats are the stats. Where any particular incident is located within the stats doesn't change the effectiveness of the stats or how to use them. What has happened to you doesn't change the stats for anyone else. The stats don't change anything if you are in the .05% or if you are in the 68% normal distribution of a bell curve.

kensteele
06-14-2011, 17:44
Guess my numbers keep others from having this experience.


Uh, no.