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jdavionic
07-30-2011, 16:06
Just curious on your thoughts regarding the chaotic gov't induced financial crisis. We often discuss terrorist strikes, hurricanes, tornados, etc...all have very dramatic transitions into SHTF. However perhaps this transition is much more gradual in the case of an economic collapse.

What do you think we'll see in the next 6 months to a year?

My $0.02 worth. I think the gov't will deadlock and no budget on 8/2. However I think the 8/2 deadline is a bogus line in the sand. I do think that the spinning of the crisis to motivate action is actually spinning out of the control on the con artists in DC.

Now the world is watching. Now the bogus deadline has evolved to have meaning. I expect a downgrade in US bond ratings. I expect higher interest rates, decline in the dollar, inflation with growing unemployment, and an American public that has become dependent on the gov't who will now demand more free handouts.

Dexters
07-30-2011, 16:17
I would add that since the revised economic number have come out for GDP people are concerned about a double dip recession. Large companies are announcing large lay offs.

Unemployment will go up over 10%+ and it will be even more difficult for most because unemployment benefits are expiring and there will less appetite to extend them beyond the current 99 weeks(?).

So, I expect a slow stock market decline into 2012 sometime.

It might even be call the second Great Depression but I do not think it will be as bad as the first one. That will just be the hyperbole.

SGT HATRED
07-30-2011, 16:18
I've posted this before but now it seems the story had been moved or categorized differently somehow...

http://www.whenshtf.com/showthread.php?33513-Dark-Days-a-story-of-SHTF

LongGun1
07-30-2011, 16:33
Just curious on your thoughts regarding the chaotic gov't induced financial crisis. We often discuss terrorist strikes, hurricanes, tornados, etc...all have very dramatic transitions into SHTF. However perhaps this transition is much more gradual in the case of an economic collapse.

What do you think we'll see in the next 6 months to a year?

My $0.02 worth. I think the gov't will deadlock and no budget on 8/2. However I think the 8/2 deadline is a bogus line in the sand. I do think that the spinning of the crisis to motivate action is actually spinning out of the control on the con artists in DC.

Now the world is watching. Now the bogus deadline has evolved to have meaning. I expect a downgrade in US bond ratings. I expect higher interest rates, decline in the dollar, inflation with growing unemployment, and an American public that has become dependent on the gov't who will now demand more free handouts.



I am very concerned about a international loss of confidence-based sell-off/dumping of dollar based securities/financial instruments!

I am very concerned about another credit crisis!

I am very concerned about a rise in interest rates & inflation or even hyper-inflation!

I am very concerned about any individual, company or government entity that is teetering on the edge of financial ruin now..

..& how a massive increase in their cash flow problems & bankruptcies will effect those left standing!

jdavionic
07-30-2011, 16:57
I am very concerned about a international loss of confidence-based sell-off/dumping of dollar based securities/financial instruments!

I am very concerned about another credit crisis!

I am very concerned about a rise in interest rates & inflation or even hyper-inflation!

I am very concerned about any individual, company or government entity that is teetering on the edge of financial ruin now..

..& how a massive increase in their cash flow problems & bankruptcies will effect those left standing!

The part that those outside of the S&P interest seem to overlook is that "survivalist" have been concerned about economic collapse for some time. And while my AKs, ammo, radiation detection equipment, etc are all important parts of my preps, my fiscal preps are also important.

Here we have a possible SHTF where there is no sudden event, no thugs in the streets, ... but just a seemingly subtle transition to a condition that we've witnessed in other nations.

LongGun1
07-30-2011, 17:45
The part that those outside of the S&P interest seem to overlook is that "survivalist" have been concerned about economic collapse for some time. And while my AKs, ammo, radiation detection equipment, etc are all important parts of my preps, my fiscal preps are also important.

Yea...though material preps are nice to have 'just-in-case'..

..I really like that I tote the title on all 3 of my POV, no credit card bills, etc.

And the preps (food/fuel/etc) can really be a nice buffer if a sudden loss of income were to occur.





Here we have a possible SHTF where there is no sudden event, no thugs in the streets, ... but just a seemingly subtle transition to a condition that we've witnessed in other nations.

That being said...I believe there is also the potential for an sudden outbreak of ugliness!

And...in addition...I am very concerned government might become even more predatory!

Wait & see....pray for the best...prepare for the worst! :supergrin:

quake
07-30-2011, 17:51
...condition that we've witnessed in other nations.
Which is what makes it such a likely scenario imo - we've seen it before and are seeing it now. Unlike asteroids or zombies, this is something with a discernable, predictable, and trackable pattern to it; a pattern that imo we're seeing develop. :sad:

jdavionic
07-30-2011, 17:58
That being said...I believe there is also the potential for an sudden outbreak of ugliness!

Specific concern or just general? IMHO, when you see an adversary distracted and on their knees, it's a good time to try and tip humpty dumpty off the wall. I would expect if I have the obersvation, our enemy are many steps ahead.

Is that what you were referring to, or something else?

emt1581
07-30-2011, 18:06
Anyone believe this is just one just dog and pony show that just keeps getting perpetually postponed until those the government owes money to tries to take it by force...which will not happen?

-Emt1581

jdavionic
07-30-2011, 18:19
...until those the government owes money to tries to take it by force...which will not happen?

-Emt1581

Not sure I follow you. China? I don't think so.

I do think they are playing political games. I think the representatives, like Pelosi, are painting an end of the world scenario to intentionally cause panic so that they get their way in the resultant panic bill that gets passed. However I also think that this game has spun beyond their control now and the consequences are now beyond their control as well.

emt1581
07-30-2011, 18:22
Not sure I follow you. China? I don't think so.

I do think they are playing political games. I think the representatives, like Pelosi, are painting an end of the world scenario to intentionally cause panic so that they get their way in the resultant panic bill that gets passed. However I also think that this game has spun beyond their control now and the consequences are now beyond their control as well.

Consequences....that's just it...we RARELY if EVER face consequences as a country. Our Gov. continues to BS it's way out of trouble and maybe it's because I'm not yet 30...but quickly approaching it...and have never seen the Gov. face any sort of consequences... :dunno:

In regard to China...did you mean they would or would not take by force?

Thanks

-Emt1581

jdavionic
07-30-2011, 18:25
In regard to China...did you mean they would or would not take by force?

I was trying to guess who you meant by 'those we owe that would take it'. WRT your follow up question, no I don't think they'd take it by force.

LongGun1
07-30-2011, 18:28
Specific concern or just general? IMHO, when you see an adversary distracted and on their knees, it's a good time to try and tip humpty dumpty off the wall. I would expect if I have the obersvation, our enemy are many steps ahead.

Is that what you were referring to, or something else?

Actually...specific & general!

In either...best to be prepared to be reactive when necessary..

..and also proactive when necessary! :whistling:

Reactive....easy......proactive.....less so!


In the larger scheme of things...

..the Chinese are masters of asymmetrical warfare..

..financial is definitely a facet of that...IMO!

While there are many others also gloating over our woes..

..some need to be really careful what they wish for! :upeyes:

bdcochran
07-30-2011, 19:42
I am responding to the original questions.

1. politicians are elected by promising a job, hope, and a place in the lifeboat. There have been many promises made - lifetime VA medical benefits, SS, Medicare, food stamps, bloc grants to states and localities. There is an inability to follow through and deliver the benefits.

2. there is an inability to pay promised retirement benefits to retired/retiring civil servants and people covered by defined benefit pension plans.

My mentor was predicting riots by August 2011.

My response is very simple. I cannot control the big events to come. I can control myself to some extent. So, I focus on exercise, sensible eating, getting rid of things I don't need, fixing up things that are useful.

I don't waste my time ranting.

Dexters
07-30-2011, 19:53
My mentor was predicting riots by August 2011.

My response is very simple. I cannot control the big events to come. I can control myself to some extent. So, I focus on exercise, sensible eating, getting rid of things I don't need, fixing up things that are useful.

I don't waste my time ranting.

I agree with you but it is interesting talking about it.

As to Aug 2011; it might be Aug. 2012

LongGun1
07-30-2011, 21:08
I've posted this before but now it seems the story had been moved or categorized differently somehow...

http://www.whenshtf.com/showthread.php?33513-Dark-Days-a-story-of-SHTF


Good story! :supergrin:

Too bad the author was banned over seemingly a difference of opinion! :dunno:

jdavionic
07-30-2011, 21:13
I agree with you but it is interesting talking about it.

As to Aug 2011; it might be Aug. 2012

It may come sooner than August 2012, but I don't expect it to sudden. Just a gradual escalation.

engineer151515
07-30-2011, 21:17
Argentina is the outline.

The people who felt America held too much sway as the world's remaining superpower are about to get their wish.

Hope they like standing in line for bread.

G29Reload
07-30-2011, 21:27
In a way, I feel its inevitable, that I've come to pray that it happens soon, and all at once, and so bad that so many things come crashing down that change is forced onto the system so that all the leeches and wasteful habits simply can't survive.

If not money, something of real substance will change hands for actual work; the government will be so crippled and so broken that Surveillance Society and the long arm of .gov overreach will come to an end in a ditch where it will never recover. People of no substance who do work that is absolutely meaningless for the govt so they can collect fat paychecks at my expense to live cushy lives in their little shell will actually have find something useful to do and it might involve painting or splitting firewood or loading a wagon and not texting "OMG" to their idiot friends on the latest technology as if anything thing they had to say was really important.

HAMMERHEAD
07-30-2011, 22:22
Unfortunately the most likely SHTF scenario is a long slow decline economically and culturally until the USA resembles the broken countries Europe.

The current debt limit impasse is just one more mile marker on the road to ruin.

TangoFoxtrot
07-31-2011, 05:19
The part that those outside of the S&P interest seem to overlook is that "survivalist" have been concerned about economic collapse for some time. And while my AKs, ammo, radiation detection equipment, etc are all important parts of my preps, my fiscal preps are also important.

Here we have a possible SHTF where there is no sudden event, no thugs in the streets, ... but just a seemingly subtle transition to a condition that we've witnessed in other nations.

No sudden event? No thugs on the streets?.....The thugs are in Washington DC! :steamed:

jdavionic
07-31-2011, 06:57
No sudden event? No thugs on the streets?.....The thugs are in Washington DC! :steamed:

No doubt, and their manipulative games and struggles for power have resulted in a scenario where their game has spun beyond their control.

Regardless of the outcome of this self-induced debt crisis, the government is unwilling to take meaningful steps toward restore economic stability in this country. Worse yet, they have succeeded through decades of hard work in creating a society that is dependent on their gov't for so much now, that they cannot be easily weened to be independent.

Even if we manage to elect a representative here & there that is willing to dish out the necessary hard medicine, you still have the vast majority of people that say 'make cuts, just make sure it's other people that make the sacrifices'.

We won't make the necessary changes until the situation spirals out of control like Greece, Argentina, etc. And I believe the S has already HTF with the spiraling underway, we just haven't scene the situation mature to the level that it's easily recognizable as to what is happening.

rj1939
07-31-2011, 07:29
The theatrics over the credit downgrade are ridiculous, our course was set long ago and a downgrade is inevitable............unless, our plan is to extend and pretend long enough that the Debt Fairy comes along and wipes it all away and we can start running up new debt.

The fact that S+P, Moodys etc have been rating junk as AAA for so long (US debt included) has finally caught up to them and their future is being called into question, forcing them to finally throw away the rubber stamp.

Study of the economist John Law should be required in high school..........this has all happened before.

G29Reload
07-31-2011, 12:28
Any agreement coming out of DC that raises taxes or the debt ceiling is a failure.

The debt ceiling needs to be LOWERED.

Pay:
the necessities,
interest,
SS,
Medicare,
the military,
NASA,
ATC and
the weather service.

End all subsidies to
AMTRAK,
NPR and
USPS has to stand on its own two feet as a running business.

End the Dept of Labor, and the
Dept of Education.

Transfer nuke security to the US Navy for deactivated weapons and
close down the Dept of Energy.

Close down the BATFE permanently,
transfer necessary LE functions to the FBI.

New Machine gun restrictions from FOPA '86 removed so new revenue can flow from new licensure. License fees cut in half, BG check limited to InstaCheck.

Release all nonviolent Federal prisoners,
sanctions remain place for Bernie Madoff types (Restitution to victims, perm ban on trading).

All Fed marijuana offenses without violent incident below 8oz in possession freed immediately.

End the Unearned Income Tax credit.

End the progressive income tax, and with it
end the IRS.
Replace with a national sales tax.

Constitutional Balanced budget amendent.

End Federal control of oil drilling permits.

Term limits. No more Chuck Schumers hanging out indefinitely. 2 Terms max for a Senator.

All feds must live under the same laws we do.

End all non-essential Foreign aid.

Mandatory 50% cut in the biggest agency in Govt. The US State Dept.

LongGun1
07-31-2011, 13:08
Any agreement coming out of DC that raises taxes or the debt ceiling is a failure.

The debt ceiling needs to be LOWERED.

Pay:
the necessities,
interest,
SS,
Medicare,
the military,
NASA,
ATC and
the weather service.

End all subsidies to
AMTRAK,
NPR and
USPS has to stand on its own two feet as a running business.

End the Dept of Labor, and the
Dept of Education.

Transfer nuke security to the US Navy for deactivated weapons and
close down the Dept of Energy.

Close down the BATFE permanently,
transfer necessary LE functions to the FBI.

New Machine gun restrictions from FOPA '86 removed so new revenue can flow from new licensure. License fees cut in half, BG check limited to InstaCheck.

Release all nonviolent Federal prisoners,
sanctions remain place for Bernie Madoff types (Restitution to victims, perm ban on trading).

All Fed marijuana offenses without violent incident below 8oz in possession freed immediately.

End the Unearned Income Tax credit.

End the progressive income tax, and with it
end the IRS.
Replace with a national sales tax.

Constitutional Balanced budget amendent.

End Federal control of oil drilling permits.

Term limits. No more Chuck Schumers hanging out indefinitely. 2 Terms max for a Senator.

All feds must live under the same laws we do.

End all non-essential Foreign aid.

Mandatory 50% cut in the biggest agency in Govt. The US State Dept.


+1 :thumbsup:

SS...no pay in, no pay out

Government should not be in the business of charity...Charity is for churches, charitable organizations & individuals.....no more generations of taxpayer funded "Entitlement Class"...Johnson's "Great Society" ends NOW!! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Society


Libertarian economist Thomas Sowell argues that the Great Society programs only contributed to the destruction of African American families, saying "the black family, which had survived centuries of slavery and discrimination, began rapidly disintegrating in the liberal welfare state that subsidized unwed pregnancy and changed welfare from an emergency rescue to a way of life."


Should be an detailed audit on every wealthy politician in government...questions such as "how did you become a multi-millionaire working as a public servant"...asset forfeiture & fines goes to pay the public debt

I can think of a lot more....but should be a good start! :supergrin:

inzone
07-31-2011, 13:33
At best, the new compromise (after you deduct the smoke and mirrors numbers concerning cost savings from ostensibly no longer fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan)....only makes a miniscule net reduction in U.S. long term pandemic debt....... analogous to a pilot who is flying a plane which is headed into a large mountain, and the pilot merely slows the plane down a little bit, and announces to the passengers..."now, that's better, we won't crash into the mountain at 3:00......it likely won't be until 3:30!"........ Buy ammo and beans!

emt1581
07-31-2011, 13:36
Do any countries actually have zero debt and maybe even a surplus?? Is that even remotely possible for the US in the next 10-20 years?

-Emt1581

tobias boon
07-31-2011, 15:32
Don't breed...no worries. Live your lives as best you can, they are short, no matter who or what rules you. Your 10mm and 3 buckets of rice will not save you or your soul. Jesus, Allah and the Devil do not care. Just try not to be a jerk while you are at it.

Dexters
07-31-2011, 15:35
Do any countries actually have zero debt and maybe even a surplus?? Is that even remotely possible for the US in the next 10-20 years?

-Emt1581

Andrew Jackson did it for us.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_public_debt

Watch what happens in 2007 & remember what I told you about Australia.

http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database/economic-data/10394-public-debt-by-country.html

G29Reload
07-31-2011, 16:13
Don't breed...no worries. Live your lives as best you can, they are short, no matter who or what rules you. Your 10mm and 3 buckets of rice will not save you or your soul. Jesus, Allah and the Devil do not care. Just try not to be a jerk while you are at it.

Wrong forum. We're not pretending prepping will do something its not designed to do.

Having the right stuff WILL make getting thru hard times a lot easier. No one here thinks that extra can of tunafish will get you thru the pearly gates. That's not the point. If you think it is, you need to re-read a lot of stuff.

engineer151515
07-31-2011, 16:33
Don't breed...no worries. Live your lives as best you can, they are short, no matter who or what rules you. Your 10mm and 3 buckets of rice will not save you or your soul. Jesus, Allah and the Devil do not care. Just try not to be a jerk while you are at it.

The only problem I have with this is, inevitably, somebody who espouses this philosophy comes up and asks if I have an extra gun and can he have a bucket of rice.

bdcochran
07-31-2011, 16:40
:rofl:The only problem I have with this is, inevitably, somebody who espouses this philosophy comes up and asks if I have an extra gun and can he have a bucket of rice.

G29Reload
07-31-2011, 16:45
The only problem I have with this is, inevitably, somebody who espouses this philosophy comes up and asks if I have an extra gun and can he have a bucket of rice.

+1000


:rofl:

And if its not him, its some drone koolaid drinking ObamaZombie.

emt1581
07-31-2011, 17:51
Andrew Jackson did it for us.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_public_debt

Watch what happens in 2007 & remember what I told you about Australia.

http://www.gfmag.com/tools/global-database/economic-data/10394-public-debt-by-country.html

What I'm wondering is if there is any possibility we get out of debt in the next 10-20yrs? I mean just breaking even and not borrowing....not having a surplus of a few trillion or anything.

I'm betting if we stop wasteful spending, get rid of handouts from the government, and slowing turn the entitlement class into productive members or society or worm food (again, still productive)...we might have a shot at it.

-Emt1581

Dexters
07-31-2011, 18:13
What I'm wondering is if there is any possibility we get out of debt in the next 10-20yrs? I mean just breaking even and not borrowing....not having a surplus of a few trillion or anything.

No empire in the history of the world has done it.

http://www.iie.com/events/event_detail.cfm?EventID=152





I'm betting if we stop wasteful spending, get rid of handouts from the government, and slowing turn the entitlement class into productive members or society or worm food (again, still productive)...we might have a shot at it.

-Emt1581


Probably not - try this.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/13/weekinreview/deficits-graphic.html

jdavionic
07-31-2011, 20:12
:rofl:The only problem I have with this is, inevitably, somebody who espouses this philosophy comes up and asks if I have an extra gun and can he have a bucket of rice.

It's happened to us in the past, and will certainly happen again.

tobias boon
08-01-2011, 08:45
The only problem I have with this is, inevitably, somebody who espouses this philosophy comes up and asks if I have an extra gun and can he have a bucket of rice.

Don't worry, I have my own guns and rice!

jdavionic
08-01-2011, 19:14
What I'm wondering is if there is any possibility we get out of debt in the next 10-20yrs? I mean just breaking even and not borrowing....not having a surplus of a few trillion or anything.


I heard this plan discussed today - Mack Penny Plan. If that were combined with a balance budget amendment, I think we'd have a chance. However the majority of the politicians don't want anything to do with this plan.

pugman
08-02-2011, 06:38
What I'm wondering is if there is any possibility we get out of debt in the next 10-20yrs? I mean just breaking even and not borrowing....not having a surplus of a few trillion or anything.

I'm betting if we stop wasteful spending, get rid of handouts from the government, and slowing turn the entitlement class into productive members or society or worm food (again, still productive)...we might have a shot at it.

-Emt1581

Possible yes....likely...no.

The current expenditure to service the debt is 6% of U.S Spending. This number is misleading in the fact its 6% of expenditures and not income-paying the minimum as we have been is over 9% of income.

Imagine we freeze the debt at $14.564 Trillion dollars. At 5% and a 20 year note our monthly payment is just north of $96 billion dollars and would consume over half the fed's intake of 2010.

In order to do this and maintain the current level of services the fed would have to increase its revenue about 104-108%. While many businesses can easily do this...its not so when you are talking trillions of dollars.

All the pending problems with Medicaid/Medicare, pension funds, SS etc. The current advertised national debt to be managable is closer to a 100 year problem. In other words all those analogies of selling out our/your grandchildren's grandchildren are accurate.

Add in trying to fund the $150 trillion in promises and obligations of the federal government has over the next 30 years and its frankly still possible. The fed would have to absorb nearly 30% of GDP over the next 30 years. At this point, pretty much everyone would be working for the federal government in one capacity or another.

bdcochran
08-02-2011, 09:28
In response to EMT - "no". Won't happen. Can't happen.


Let us disregard increasing taxes or increasing debt limitations. Let us assume that the dollar remains constant in value, that there are no more wars, no emergencies. Let us assume that we are not going to deal with unfunded liabilities of pensions.

You have a projected federal budget deficit for next year of at least $1trillion.

Now, what programs do you proposed be eliminated?

With your powers of persuasion, you get people to understand that something has to be eliminated. I benefit from farm subsidies and the existence of a federal agricultural agent in each county in the US. Are you going to cut that out? I take advantage of pre-school and after school programs. Do they go? There are psychologists working in my school system because of federal dollars. Do they go? There are 3,000 undergraduates at UCLA majoring in psychology because they can get federally covered loans that their parents co-sign on. Yeah, there isn't a need for 3,000 new psychologists, but what will the parents say or do when you cut out loans?

Yes, EMT, there are illegals driving SUVs to my grocery store who are carrying two kids and using food stamps. You, your co-electors and your political representatives have decided not to exclude them. That decision has been made. Do you really expect it to be reversed?

My brother does tax returns in Las Vegas for Americans who he suspects, but cannot prove, are concealing income to get money back on their tax returns. Do you really think that the IRS is going after "low incomers" who file fraudulent returns? Nope.

You have witnessed multibillion dollar computer systems for the IRS and FBI go bust in the last few years. Can you name one federal employee fired or disciplined for incompetence?

jdavionic
08-02-2011, 15:25
In response to EMT - "no". Won't happen. Can't happen.


Let us disregard increasing taxes or increasing debt limitations. Let us assume that the dollar remains constant in value, that there are no more wars, no emergencies. Let us assume that we are not going to deal with unfunded liabilities of pensions.

You have a projected federal budget deficit for next year of at least $1trillion.

Now, what programs do you proposed be eliminated?

With your powers of persuasion, you get people to understand that something has to be eliminated. I benefit from farm subsidies and the existence of a federal agricultural agent in each county in the US. Are you going to cut that out? I take advantage of pre-school and after school programs. Do they go? There are psychologists working in my school system because of federal dollars. Do they go? There are 3,000 undergraduates at UCLA majoring in psychology because they can get federally covered loans that their parents co-sign on. Yeah, there isn't a need for 3,000 new psychologists, but what will the parents say or do when you cut out loans?

Yes, EMT, there are illegals driving SUVs to my grocery store who are carrying two kids and using food stamps. You, your co-electors and your political representatives have decided not to exclude them. That decision has been made. Do you really expect it to be reversed?

My brother does tax returns in Las Vegas for Americans who he suspects, but cannot prove, are concealing income to get money back on their tax returns. Do you really think that the IRS is going after "low incomers" who file fraudulent returns? Nope.

You have witnessed multibillion dollar computer systems for the IRS and FBI go bust in the last few years. Can you name one federal employee fired or disciplined for incompetence?

I would say it "can" happen, but it likely will "not" happen in the near future. The Mack Penny Plan appears to offer a balance budget plan (within 8 yrs), when combined with a balance budget amendment. However hardly anyone was interested in such a plan. It was dirt simple. No spending increases, instead a 1% cut each year for the next 6 yrs. At the end of 6 yrs, hold the course. At the end of 8 yrs, the deficit is gone.

However Americans were not motivated enough to rally for a balanced budget. The outrage is growing, but so too is the dependency on the federal gov't. I think the gov't has intentionally created this dependency. Basically gave us the drugs for free to create the addiction. Can we break that addiction? Apparently not today.

LongGun1
08-02-2011, 17:14
Possible yes....likely...no.

The current expenditure to service the debt is 6% of U.S Spending. This number is misleading in the fact its 6% of expenditures and not income-paying the minimum as we have been is over 9% of income.

Imagine we freeze the debt at $14.564 Trillion dollars. At 5% and a 20 year note our monthly payment is just north of $96 billion dollars and would consume over half the fed's intake of 2010.

In order to do this and maintain the current level of services the fed would have to increase its revenue about 104-108%. While many businesses can easily do this...its not so when you are talking trillions of dollars.

All the pending problems with Medicaid/Medicare, pension funds, SS etc. The current advertised national debt to be managable is closer to a 100 year problem. In other words all those analogies of selling out our/your grandchildren's grandchildren are accurate.

Add in trying to fund the $150 trillion in promises and obligations of the federal government has over the next 30 years and its frankly its still possible. The fed would have to absorb nearly 30% of GDP over the next 30 years. Then again, pretty much everyone would be working for the federal government in one capacity or another.

:goodpost:

bdcochran
08-02-2011, 17:44
It used to be said that there were kinds of liars - black liars, white liars and statisticians.

You can add a fourth - your elected politicians.

Most families cannot budget. Most of your elected officials have been running for office since junior high school - endless popularity contests. Now combine the two and youhave the electorate and the leaders.

We had a president who drove himself and his wife home from the White House. He had no secret service detail. He had no presidential pension. That man was Harry Truman. The last guys of that ilk have faded since that presidency - and you want me to believe that this country has the fortitude to 1. balance the current budget, and 2. then pay off the national debt? Get real.

Dexters
08-02-2011, 18:06
It used to be said that there were kinds of liars - black liars, white liars and statisticians.

You can add a fourth - your elected politicians.

Most families cannot budget. Most of your elected officials have been running for office since junior high school - endless popularity contests. Now combine the two and youhave the electorate and the leaders.

We had a president who drove himself and his wife home from the White House. He had no secret service detail. He had no presidential pension. That man was Harry Truman. The last guys of that ilk have faded since that presidency - and you want me to believe that this country has the fortitude to 1. balance the current budget, and 2. then pay off the national debt? Get real.

And he lived modestly after that. It is sickening that Al Gore has made over $100M since 2000, Clinton more and Obama will probably outdo them all with speaking engagements around the world.

pugman
08-02-2011, 18:10
My brother does tax returns in Las Vegas for Americans who he suspects, but cannot prove, are concealing income to get money back on their tax returns. Do you really think that the IRS is going after "low incomers" who file fraudulent returns? Nope.

Your right.

We recently hired several tax investigators who used to work for the state. They are rated on dollars recovered. As Jon (one of the guys we hired) said, it makes more sense to look at one return of someone who made $200,000 than 10 who make $30K

TangoFoxtrot
08-04-2011, 02:59
Any agreement coming out of DC that raises taxes or the debt ceiling is a failure.

The debt ceiling needs to be LOWERED.

Pay:
the necessities,
interest,
SS,
Medicare,
the military,
NASA,
ATC and
the weather service.

End all subsidies to
AMTRAK,
NPR and
USPS has to stand on its own two feet as a running business.

End the Dept of Labor, and the
Dept of Education.

Transfer nuke security to the US Navy for deactivated weapons and
close down the Dept of Energy.

Close down the BATFE permanently,
transfer necessary LE functions to the FBI.

New Machine gun restrictions from FOPA '86 removed so new revenue can flow from new licensure. License fees cut in half, BG check limited to InstaCheck.

Release all nonviolent Federal prisoners,
sanctions remain place for Bernie Madoff types (Restitution to victims, perm ban on trading).

All Fed marijuana offenses without violent incident below 8oz in possession freed immediately.

End the Unearned Income Tax credit.

End the progressive income tax, and with it
end the IRS.
Replace with a national sales tax.

Constitutional Balanced budget amendent.

End Federal control of oil drilling permits.

Term limits. No more Chuck Schumers hanging out indefinitely. 2 Terms max for a Senator.

All feds must live under the same laws we do.

End all non-essential Foreign aid.

Mandatory 50% cut in the biggest agency in Govt. The US State Dept.

This looks great on paper, but is only a pipedream. I see NASA on your list of pay. The space program is over, we handed it back to the Russians.:steamed:

jdavionic
08-04-2011, 04:46
The S continues to slowly hit the fan.

US Borrowning Tops 100% of GDP
http://news.yahoo.com/us-aaa-rating-still-under-threat-204040123.html

Whether the bond rating agencies downgrade our rating or not (possibly not due to intimidation from the gov't), we are in some serious financial trouble.

pugman
08-04-2011, 05:36
The S continues to slowly hit the fan.

US Borrowning Tops 100% of GDP
http://news.yahoo.com/us-aaa-rating-still-under-threat-204040123.html

Whether the bond rating agencies downgrade our rating or not (possibly not due to intimidation from the gov't), we are in some serious financial trouble.

Proof the debt model the u.s rating is based on was thrown out the window years ago and Moody's and S&P's "rating" mean nothing anymore...

"Ratings agencies have warned the country to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio quickly or facing losing its coveted AAA debt rating.

Moody's said Tuesday that the government needed to stabilize the ratio at 73 percent by 2015 "to ensure that the long-run fiscal trajectory remains compatible with a AAA rating."

Reduce it quickly or face the consequences...4 years is quick?

This is Moody's just playing the game along with the rest of the financial world. If the U.S defaults the potential downstream effect would basically put every person at Moody's out of a job. Lowering the rating increases the rates the Fed needs to pay in effect speedy the default process. Then again since the Fed can't get anyone to buy its debt anymore except itself I guess it really doesn't matter.

The more this plays out in reality the more it sounds like the first chapter of James Rawles's Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse

emt1581
08-04-2011, 05:41
Proof the debt model the u.s rating is based on was thrown out the window years ago and Moody's and S&P's "rating" mean nothing anymore...

"Ratings agencies have warned the country to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio quickly or facing losing its coveted AAA debt rating.

Moody's said Tuesday that the government needed to stabilize the ratio at 73 percent by 2015 "to ensure that the long-run fiscal trajectory remains compatible with a AAA rating."

Reduce it quickly or face the consequences...4 years is quick?

This is Moody's just playing the game along with the rest of the financial world. If the U.S defaults the potential downstream effect would basically put every person at Moody's out of a job. Lowering the rating increases the rates the Fed needs to pay in effect speedy the default process. Then again since the Fed can't get anyone to buy its debt anymore except itself I guess it really doesn't matter.

The more this plays out in reality the more it sounds like the first chapter of James Rawles's Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse


And who predicted the US would BS it's way out of trouble or postpone it??? ;)

Kinda reminds me of the prison guards in Goodfellas.

... I just didn't think outside entity's would be sucked into the facade as well.

-Emt1581

jdavionic
08-04-2011, 05:41
The more this plays out in reality the more it sounds like the first chapter of James Rawles's Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse

I read that book and remember thinking at the time 'that's it. bang, we're in a economic collapse'. I thought it was just a relatively quick transition that he put in there to move the book into the area that he wanted to talk about. Now, I am thinking 'bang, that's it. we raise the debt ceiling, did nothing to address the problem, and welcome to the accelerated economic collapse plan.'

Dexters
08-04-2011, 07:26
http://www.theonion.com/articles/drunken-ben-bernanke-tells-everyone-at-neighborhoo,21059/

Drunken Ben Bernanke Tells Everyone At Neighborhood Bar How Screwed U.S. Economy Really Is

emt1581
08-04-2011, 16:42
http://www.theonion.com/articles/drunken-ben-bernanke-tells-everyone-at-neighborhoo,21059/

Drunken Ben Bernanke Tells Everyone At Neighborhood Bar How Screwed U.S. Economy Really Is


Wow!!

I mean I'd want to see a video of it but if true I'd expect that to go viral online and make today's crash look like child's play.

-Emt1581

jdavionic
08-04-2011, 17:06
Wow!!

I mean I'd want to see a video of it but if true I'd expect that to go viral online and make today's crash look like child's play.

-Emt1581

You do know The Onion is satire, right?

emt1581
08-04-2011, 17:09
You do know The Onion is satire, right?

I did not.

-Emt1581

jdavionic
08-04-2011, 19:00
I did not.

-Emt1581

Yep...it's usually well done and very entertaining.

G29Reload
08-04-2011, 19:10
If you look at wall sts 500 point drop today, we could be in for a rough ride.

I'm thinking fall 2008. Maybe get out of stocks for bit.

Could be SHTF now!

And the filthy degenerate swine in the white house can't blame bush now.

emt1581
08-04-2011, 20:33
If you look at wall sts 500 point drop today, we could be in for a rough ride.

I'm thinking fall 2008. Maybe get out of stocks for bit.

Could be SHTF now!

And the filthy degenerate swine in the white house can't blame bush now.

But they are. I forget what they said but there was a few comments slid into a press briefing I saw today that said something about the previous administration. Can't remember off the top of my head though. :dunno:

-Emt1581

Bilbo Bagins
08-04-2011, 21:32
If you look at wall sts 500 point drop today, we could be in for a rough ride.

I'm thinking fall 2008. Maybe get out of stocks for bit.

Could be SHTF now!

And the filthy degenerate swine in the white house can't blame bush now.

It is like 2008 but we don't have money for another TARP fund to keep us afloat. 10% of Americans are unemployed, now another 5% to 6% will be joining them.

The ugly maybe coming tomorrow boys, hold on to your hats.

rj1939
08-05-2011, 04:30
QE-3 is about to sail.........Goldman wants it, the Fed has hinted at it, Zero was hinting at it the other day ...........this market crash is the trigger to make it happen. It will not work, but it is what will happen.

emt1581
08-05-2011, 04:52
It is like 2008 but we don't have money for another TARP fund to keep us afloat. 10% of Americans are unemployed, now another 5% to 6% will be joining them.

The ugly maybe coming tomorrow boys, hold on to your hats.

Maybe this is the point some have been waiting for/expecting all along and others have been praying they'd never live to see. That is Argentinian-style collapse but worse.

However, I'm wondering what tricks our government or world governments will try to pull to keep the US and/or global economy from folding like a cheap suit?

-Emt1581

jdavionic
08-05-2011, 06:09
If you look at wall sts 500 point drop today, we could be in for a rough ride.

I'm thinking fall 2008. Maybe get out of stocks for bit.

Could be SHTF now!

And the filthy degenerate swine in the white house can't blame bush now.

That was the flag I raised in my OP. I think the answer is "yes, the S is hitting the fan now." It's just not happening in some radical transition that is triggered by a single event.

G29Reload
08-05-2011, 09:04
I havent checked yet but this morning they caught a break from unemployment figures not quite as devastating as usual.

UI dropped a click, BUT...it was on a shrinking workforce. (People giving up looking, no doubt)

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

we're still over 9%; U6 over 16 on the new distorted formula they've been using since last fall. I'll bet its closer to 10 and 18.

Weekly new claims are stubbornly hanging out at 400k.

Dexters
08-05-2011, 13:47
we're still over 9%; U6 over 16 on the new distorted formula they've been using since last fall. I'll bet its closer to 10 and 18.



We are in George Orwell's 1984 - Big Brother spins and changes the numbers to his advantage. And our great news media does nothing to question it.

rj1939
08-05-2011, 15:02
And todays numbers will be revised next month...........like they were last month and the month before that and ............well you get the idea.

The underlying data is horrible, but we can still manage a spin.

jdavionic
08-05-2011, 15:05
And todays numbers will be revised next month...........like they were last month and the month before that and ............well you get the idea.

The underlying data is horrible, but we can still manage a spin.

Yep...the gov't will continue to manipulate and spin the reality, and the press will continue to sweep reality under the carpet to avoid exposing their Idol.

cowboy1964
08-05-2011, 15:05
And todays numbers will be revised next month...........like they were last month and the month before that and ............well you get the idea.

The underlying data is horrible, but we can still manage a spin.

Actually the last few months employment numbers were revised upward a bit (which is good). They still SUCK however.

This is 2008 all over again except this time it's going global and we can't throw trillions of dollars at it. It's past time to just let it crash and restart. The longer it's put off the worse it will be.

jdavionic
08-05-2011, 15:28
Actually the last few months employment numbers were revised upward a bit (which is good). They still SUCK however.

This is 2008 all over again except this time it's going global and we can't throw trillions of dollars at it. It's past time to just let it crash and restart. The longer it's put off the worse it will be.

The minor fluctuations up and down are pretty irrelevant. As you say, "they still suck." What's worse is the manipulation of the numbers, because they actually suck much worse than what we're being told.

I think it's worse than 2008. I think we headed back to the 70s and the Carter cluster... Only this time, I think we're in a worse position. We are extremely vulnerable in many ways.

jdavionic
08-05-2011, 18:46
US loses AAA rating from S&P
http://news.yahoo.com/p-reconsidering-u-downgrade-cnbc-001207261.html

emt1581
08-05-2011, 18:49
US loses AAA rating from S&P
http://news.yahoo.com/p-reconsidering-u-downgrade-cnbc-001207261.html

"S&P cut the long-term U.S. credit rating by one notch to AA-plus on concerns about growing budget deficits."

What fairy tale land are these people living in?!?! "Concerns"....at this point??! A little late in the game to be concerned. They should be sucking their thumb in the fetal position and praying for mommy at this point!

I think we're going to go from "we just may have a problem" to a complete system shut down thanks to the continued beating around the bush.

-Emt1581

Dexters
08-05-2011, 19:09
One interesting aspect is that about 2 other ratings agencies didn't downgrade the USA. So S&P is showing some guts.

There might be some negative stock market action about it. But, it shouldn't have much of an effect. Other countries have been downgraded in the past - Japan and Canada come to mind. It didn't affect borrowing rates.

jdavionic
08-05-2011, 19:19
One interesting aspect is that about 2 other ratings agencies didn't downgrade the USA. So S&P is showing some guts.

There might be some negative stock market action about it. But, it shouldn't have much of an effect. Other countries have been downgraded in the past - Japan and Canada come to mind. It didn't affect borrowing rates.

I found it interesting too. To me, it's like S&P is saying 'we are the only reputable bond rating agency'.

Ruble Noon
08-05-2011, 19:48
One interesting aspect is that about 2 other ratings agencies didn't downgrade the USA. So S&P is showing some guts.

There might be some negative stock market action about it. But, it shouldn't have much of an effect. Other countries have been downgraded in the past - Japan and Canada come to mind. It didn't affect borrowing rates.

3 other ratings agencies have already downgraded the US credit rating.

Dexters
08-05-2011, 20:01
3 other ratings agencies have already downgraded the US credit rating.

Which?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/06/business/us-debt-downgraded-by-sp.html

The other rating agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, have said they have no immediate plan to downgrade the country’s credit rating, giving the government more time to make progress on debt reduction.

Ruble Noon
08-05-2011, 20:43
Which?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/06/business/us-debt-downgraded-by-sp.html

The other rating agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, have said they have no immediate plan to downgrade the country’s credit rating, giving the government more time to make progress on debt reduction.

http://money.usnews.com/money/business-economy/articles/2011/07/22/meet-3-ratings-agencies-that-have-already-downgraded-the-us

Dexters
08-05-2011, 20:52
http://money.usnews.com/money/business-economy/articles/2011/07/22/meet-3-ratings-agencies-that-have-already-downgraded-the-us

Thanks - that was an interesting read. Dagong Global Credit looks like it has a good handle on the situation.

jdavionic
08-08-2011, 19:38
Just another bit poo hitting the fan today.