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kirgi08
08-06-2011, 03:55
We had a family pow-wow tonight,this is in reference ta todays "downgrade" of the US credit rating.

What was decided:

We have moved most of our bulk stuff-IE portable gennys/large water storage bbls and 3/4 ton of beans/rice ta the bol.My wife and child along with 2 of the dogs are now in residence there.I will remain at home and watch the situation as it develops.She has my 4wd and I have the F-250 and the trailer is ready ta hook-up.

What we will lose in departure:

We have a 18kw china diesel that is not movable.We have a 2nd at the bol,the neighbors will have it ta use as needed/all 4 of us are hard wired and they did pay their part of the purchase.

14cords of hardwood,also this goes ta the neighbors,this is a gift.Due too my wifes coercion/bullying* they all installed wood cook stoves.Next,and my saddest loss will be our well system.Grid/genny/manual set-up,we have the same thing out there,it's just it took me years and a ton of effort ta build this system.

I look at this as a live "scenario" and we'll deal with it in the realistic manner.I pray were wrong,we sat down for hours tonight and thought this out.Ya folks I know,"why" would we leave all this,we don't want to leave it.We believe it's prudent ta cover all bases.

Granted we maybe crying "Wolf",I'd assert it's better than bleating like sheep.

We got our comms up,ssb CBs and there working fine.If the ballon does go up,I hope and pray all my friends on GT/SP weather it and come out on the other side whole and healthy.'08.


*We had a power outtage and Kat invited all our neighbor over for fresh baked bread and a deer stew cooked on the stove,they were amazed we had heat/power and a shower/toilet that worked.Talk ta your neighbors,tell them that extra food/water/meds are a prudent thing ta do.Respects .'08.

TangoFoxtrot
08-06-2011, 05:03
Wow easy their kirgi don't hit the panic button just yet brother! Be the wolf and just stalk the situaition out. I don't think society is ready for a total collape just yet. You need to go with the flow. I think this will be a slower process.

kirgi08
08-06-2011, 05:46
Just in place,I hate suprises.'08.

TangoFoxtrot
08-06-2011, 05:52
I hear ya! But let the sheeple panic first and let them be the sacrificial lambs in sheer panic. Then we can just step over them to escape the carnage!

kirgi08
08-06-2011, 06:02
Why the hell pony up for that,GOOD is the most appropriate cue.We'd rather be early than fodder.It ain't set in stone,yet.We got 50acres in madison,why not activate the bol? .'08.

Ruble Noon
08-06-2011, 06:40
We had a family pow-wow tonight,this is in reference ta todays "downgrade" of the US credit rating.

What was decided:

We have moved most of our bulk stuff-IE portable gennys/large water storage bbls and 3/4 ton of beans/rice ta the bol.My wife and child along with 2 of the dogs are now in residence there.I will remain at home and watch the situation as it develops.She has my 4wd and I have the F-250 and the trailer is ready ta hook-up.

What we will lose in departure:

We have a 18kw china diesel that is not movable.We have a 2nd at the bol,the neighbors will have it ta use as needed/all 4 of us are hard wired and they did pay their part of the purchase.

14cords of hardwood,also this goes ta the neighbors,this is a gift.Due too my wifes coercion/bullying* they all installed wood cook stoves.Next,and my saddest loss will be our well system.Grid/genny/manual set-up,we have the same thing out there,it's just it took me years and a ton of effort ta build this system.

I look at this as a live "scenario" and we'll deal with it in the realistic manner.I pray were wrong,we sat down for hours tonight and thought this out.Ya folks I know,"why" would we leave all this,we don't want to leave it.We believe it's prudent ta cover all bases.

Granted we maybe crying "Wolf",I'd assert it's better than bleating like sheep.

We got our comms up,ssb CBs and there working fine.If the ballon does go up,I hope and pray all my friends on GT/SP weather it and come out on the other side whole and healthy.'08.


*We had a power outtage and Kat invited all our neighbor over for fresh baked bread and a deer stew cooked on the stove,they were amazed we had heat/power and a shower/toilet that worked.Talk ta your neighbors,tell them that extra food/water/meds are a prudent thing ta do.Respects .'08.

Is this going to be a major SHTF event? Don't know. If it is, being ahead of the hordes is not a bad idea. If not, it is a good exercise and gives you the opportunity to evaluate and assess your preparedness planning by going through a trial run.

jdavionic
08-06-2011, 06:44
Wow easy their kirgi don't hit the panic button just yet brother! Be the wolf and just stalk the situaition out. I don't think society is ready for a total collape just yet. You need to go with the flow. I think this will be a slower process.

+1 I like your posts Kirgi, but I think you need to step back a little from this one and reassess. I've already posted that I believe the S has already HTF. However as I cited in that thread, it's not happening like many would have thought. It's not one abrupt transition.

I do think we're in that transition period, but I think it's the start of all the other issues that go with such a scenario. I'm not sure what your home base is like, but in my case, I'd have plenty of time before needing to venture out to our BOL. Furthermore, bugging out is my last option. I've got more supplies, etc at my home.

Like I said, not saying your decision is a bad one. Just suggesting that you reassess the situation. You may find that bugging out at this point is a bit premature. All is not lost if that's the conclusion that you reach though. At least you've run the drill and probably learned of some minor improvements that can be made for when you decide to do it again.

kirgi08
08-06-2011, 06:55
JD,the situation in neutral,were just absorbing it.'08.

DoctaGlockta
08-06-2011, 07:00
There’s an old parable about crabs in a bucket.


If you put a crab in a bucket and it can climb out of that bucket, it will climb out. But if you put 2 crabs in the bucket, when one of the crabs tries to climb out, the other will pull it back in. Neither will ever escape. It doesn’t matter that it’s possible to escape, the crabs will hold each other back from doing so.


We’re no different than crabs. It’s a sad part of the society we’re living in. When one independent freedom seeker tries to “climb out of the bucket” the rest of the herd will try to pull him/her back in. :whistling:


Not my words but some guy from the internets.

Dexters
08-06-2011, 07:22
Wow easy their kirgi don't hit the panic button just yet brother! Be the wolf and just stalk the situaition out. I don't think society is ready for a total collape just yet. You need to go with the flow. I think this will be a slower process.

I agree with this. There might be a sell off - not crash - next week. Also, the down grade might increase interest rates slightly in the short term but then they will go down again.

Japan and Canada were downgraded and they are OK.

So the question is what large group is going to destabilize civil order that also have a criminal background?

You need so start worrying when there are large groups of poor hungry people.

Dexters
08-06-2011, 07:36
What was decided:



What do you see the situation playing out that you need to go to your BOL?

pugman
08-06-2011, 07:53
I hear ya! But let the sheeple panic first and let them be the sacrificial lambs in sheer panic. Then we can just step over them to escape the carnage!

Why the Sheep will freak but not completely freak.

The average person has no idea how the rating systems of Moody's or S&P works much less understands them. If you understood them you would realize at this point the ratings are more fueled by politics and the financial markets than anything.

What's funny is the administration came out and said S&P's analysis is "fundamentally flawed." Let's put it this way: In numbers the average person can relate to, as it stands today, the fed is like a person who makes $40,000/yr, has over $276,000 in credit card bills and a $2.8 million dollar mortgage (this ratio is about right as it relates to the advertised national debt and the unfunded liabilities the fed has over the next 30 years). Would you consider this person a good credit risk?

Ask the average person about the difference between AAA and AAplus and he/she will think you are talking about batteries.

I even had one person already told me they are going to "get" S&P for what "they" did. This is like blaming the bank for you not paying your mortgage when you blew it at the casino the weekend before.

As long as most sheep have their XBox, the internet, TV, three days worth of food in their pantry, McDonald's down the street and their paycheck on Monday most won't care.

My wife is not stupid just naive. I just explained to her the impact this will have on the debt (it will increase faster), potentially taxes, interest rates, etc.

The real morons on Monday will blame the Obama administration. While I AGREE 100% THIS ADMINISTRATION AND CONGRESS DIDN'T HELP THE MATTER they certainly aren't the only cause.

As I told my wife...this could be the pebble which starts the avalanche but my crystal ball says we have somewhere between 2-5 years before things really get bad.

However, without a doubt its coming

fire65
08-06-2011, 07:59
Filled the truck with fuel and bought extra beer, so I am ready.

wildcat455
08-06-2011, 08:48
As I told my wife...this could be the pebble which starts the avalanche but my crystal ball says we have somewhere between 2-5 years before things really get bad.

Very informative post pugman, the only thing is I kinda disagree with your assessment of how much time we have, and I'll try to explain why.

When people look at a situation, they tend to do it from their perspective and using their own rationale. The hardest part of predicting time frames is considering the effect all the stuff happening has on people who are not in your particular situation, nor have your rationale.
Please don't take it wrong because we all do it to some degree or another, and I am probably guilty of putting too much emphasis on the effect a situation has on others.

I have no idea whether or not at this point you have considered it or not, so I might be preaching to the choir, but here goes...

I think we are quickly approaching a boiling point in this country with racial tension, while simultaneously reaching a boiling point with economic crisis. The "financially challenged" will be the first to respond to the economic crisis. There are allot of people of all race that are part of this "financially challenged" group. With racial tension and financial crisis, come riots. With riots comes civil disorder, with civil disorder comes increased insecurity in the stability of members of society. Things are going to snowball, and in my estimation we have less time than the 2-5 years you predict.

It's just another opinion, subject to my own rationale and perspective.

wildcat455
08-06-2011, 08:50
Filled the truck with fuel and bought extra beer, so I am ready.

LMAO! Good on you fire65!

LongGun1
08-06-2011, 09:00
Wow easy their kirgi don't hit the panic button just yet brother! Be the wolf and just stalk the situaition out. I don't think society is ready for a total collape just yet. You need to go with the flow. I think this will be a slower process.


My sentiments exactly! :thumbsup:


If you want to treat this as a trial run for your preps & plans...cool..

..but otherwise I would not do anything 'rash'!

As for me...topping off of the preps (& gas tanks) is about the extent I would go.


I am waiting for the world financial markets reaction in the coming days, weeks & months..

..but this is just another weekend to me.


But....If during that wait there is meltdown of the dollar... :whistling:



YMMV

Dexters
08-06-2011, 09:07
As I told my wife...this could be the pebble which starts the avalanche but my crystal ball says we have somewhere between 2-5 years before things really get bad.



I agree with what you say. It will take time for it to unfold and for it to sink in or affect the average person. It will be a slow motion decline. And unemployment could get into mid teens.

Here is an interesting chart comparing the 1930's to now.
http://www.mrci.com/special/wdji37.php

The only thing is, I'm a little skeptical that the market and economic recovery is going to be the same as the very late '30's recovery was. Remember, by that time we were quietly gearing up for war not just for our armies but, for sale of weaponry to Britain which helped kick up "real product" sales and job creation. I don't, at this point, see anything similar on our or the world's horizon over the next few years.

wildcat455
08-06-2011, 09:13
We had a family pow-wow tonight,this is in reference ta todays "downgrade" of the US credit rating.

What was decided:

We have moved most of our bulk stuff-IE portable gennys/large water storage bbls and 3/4 ton of beans/rice ta the bol.My wife and child along with 2 of the dogs are now in residence there.I will remain at home and watch the situation as it develops.She has my 4wd and I have the F-250 and the trailer is ready ta hook-up.

What we will lose in departure:

We have a 18kw china diesel that is not movable.We have a 2nd at the bol,the neighbors will have it ta use as needed/all 4 of us are hard wired and they did pay their part of the purchase.

14cords of hardwood,also this goes ta the neighbors,this is a gift.Due too my wifes coercion/bullying* they all installed wood cook stoves.Next,and my saddest loss will be our well system.Grid/genny/manual set-up,we have the same thing out there,it's just it took me years and a ton of effort ta build this system.

I look at this as a live "scenario" and we'll deal with it in the realistic manner.I pray were wrong,we sat down for hours tonight and thought this out.Ya folks I know,"why" would we leave all this,we don't want to leave it.We believe it's prudent ta cover all bases.

Granted we maybe crying "Wolf",I'd assert it's better than bleating like sheep.

We got our comms up,ssb CBs and there working fine.If the ballon does go up,I hope and pray all my friends on GT/SP weather it and come out on the other side whole and healthy.'08.


*We had a power outtage and Kat invited all our neighbor over for fresh baked bread and a deer stew cooked on the stove,they were amazed we had heat/power and a shower/toilet that worked.Talk ta your neighbors,tell them that extra food/water/meds are a prudent thing ta do.Respects .'08.


I think this might be the most you have ever said at one time! I support your decision to do what you feel is right to protect you and yours. My prayers are with you, although I suspect at your level of preparation, you wont need them.

My situation is different. I have no place to go. The decision to move to my current location was made in 2009. I am about 50 miles outside the center of a major city. While that may be enough for the onset of the predicted disorder, once the migrations away from violence and oppression that I believe will begin to happen, it will put me in the midst of a migration of desperate people. Admittedly, the factors surrounding my decision at the time was limited by my naivety, compromise, and the desire to stay somewhat close to work. Now would be a good time for me to investigate "other" options "Just in case".

Dexters
08-06-2011, 09:25
But....If during that wait there is meltdown of the dollar... :whistling:




We'll probably get a stronger dollar before it weakens.
... flight to safety
... European sovereign debt problems
... Stocks down/$ up

But, I'm waiting for that strong US$ as an opportunity to get out of it and into Australian $ and gold and other things.

Ronaldo
08-06-2011, 09:41
OP, right now your preps should be more on the fiscal side. While I still have a modest amount in the banks & credit unions, I have set aside a comfortable cash and PM reserve in a very safe location.

Continue adding to your stocks of food, hardware, tools, and consumables - toilet paper etc - and keep moving it to a safe location.

For now, SHTF will be in the financial arena so if you gather your capital and continue to aquire you will be good to go. The sheep are still sleeping and are being sheared without being aware of it.

Hang in, keep frosty and watch your six...

Ronaldo

Glocktastic
08-06-2011, 10:20
Better to be far ahead of a situation and have overreacted than to be behind it and cursing yourself because you refused to follow your instincts.

Cheers Kirgi! Glad you made it there safely. Peace.

bdcochran
08-06-2011, 11:52
OP is probably ahead of the curve. However, it is better to be ahead than behind.

I give credence to the concept that there is a slow decline. Essentially, the middle class is being slowly squeezed. This is not new. It isn't a surprise to the people who frequent this forum.

Why would you expect other people in the world to be stupid and not perceive that the United States is enacting expensive federal programs, not balancing its budget and not demonstrating fiscal responsibility?

All a rating agency does is "rate".

The effect of a downgrade by one rating service - people simply demand a higher rate of return in US obligations. Or, they buy obligations of other countries. Or they spend their money elsewhere.

So, how do you get your "rating" back up? You cut expenditures or raise taxes or both. So, do you really expect expenditures to be cut when the projected budget deficit for the next fiscal year is $1.2 TRILLION dollars? I don't.

So, if OP is reacting ahead of the curve, it isn't going to be too far ahead.

cowboy1964
08-06-2011, 13:58
Where will you be going?

Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade? A downgrade that was based on faulty calculations BTW, which may cause them to retract it.

Akita
08-06-2011, 15:08
Better laughed at for being too early than being too late. All the best, 'o8!

jbenton
08-06-2011, 15:52
Thanks for posting this thread 08. I've been thinking about the possible outcomes from this and the follow up by Moody's at the end of the month. I'm no economist, so I'm glad to hear everyone else's perspective and 'alert level'.

In my humble opinion it's going to be a slow decline too as people are only now speculating as to the real effects of this. If the media was ever handy for anything, it will be to ignore this major SNAFU of their boss, so the effects could be mitigated even beyond what they 'should' be.

Either way, what a great exercise for you. I bet you learn more from this than you have in quite some time about your plans, what works, and what doesn't.

I've been a camper since I was a kid, more than 20 years. STILL almost every time I go, I have an "aw ****!!!" moment when I start unpacking gear. But luckily, I've had enough experience that I probably have 1 or more backups of said missing gear. Only way you get there is by doing it a lot.

Seems to me that if nothing happens, you haven't really lost anything except maybe your wife will have possibly missed a day or two of work. But there will be LOTS of lessons learned, which could prove invaluable in the future. As much as we prep, making the right decisions of what's most important at the time is really valuable.

Hoping this is just a 'dry run' for you. :cheers: Guess we'll know more in about 3 days. :popcorn:

Dexters
08-06-2011, 16:11
Better laughed at for being too early than being too late. All the best, 'o8!

I don't think she'd say that! :supergrin:

kirgi08
08-06-2011, 17:44
What do you see the situation playing out that you need to go to your BOL?

I'm not there,I'm home.My wife and child are there.This could be considered a test and nothing more.As ta the "scenario",I don't know how this will play out.I'm waiting just like you all are,if it's nothing fine.If it does turn inta a mess were ahead of the curve.I figure it'll be a lot easier ta move me and one truck than 3 and 3 trucks.My inlaws are ready and are watching as well as I am.

I'm praying that this will be a exercise and nothing more,I however have no desire ta be caught flatfooted.Look at it this way,my family is out there fishing and having fun.It's like a prebooked vacation.I'm the only one working so I'm still working while there out there.'08.

G29Reload
08-06-2011, 17:45
What exactly is so unsafe about your regular AO that you feel the need to compulsively leave on a pre-emptive basis when nothing has happened or is imminent?

Your home AO is probably a pretty safe place to begin with, and there is no telling if the current situation isn;t just gonna unfold slowly over a period of months...

dont panic, remain cool under pressure. That's leadership.

Stevekozak
08-06-2011, 18:28
Good on ya, 08! Hopefully the worst will not come to pass, and this will only serve as a good practice run, but if not, then you are ahead of the game. To the naysayers on here, like O8 says, no one is being harmed, his family is having a good time in a natural setting, and if worse tcomes to worst, he is prepared. All the best!! :wavey:

UneasyRider
08-06-2011, 18:28
I don't think that any of us can say if it will be Monday or 5 years from now but I think that Kirgi is correct that could be any day now. Things have left the predictable and ventured into the completely unpredictable. Things are getting sporty in some parts of the country right now.

bdcochran
08-06-2011, 18:44
Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade?

If you are a day trader operating on margin, if the market starts to go down, you have to cover, get out or sell short.

If you are a mutual fund and sense that the value of your portfolio is about to drop, then you go to cash.

greatwun
08-06-2011, 18:53
Could anyone tell me if this down grade could lose the dollar's spot as the world's reserve currency? And if so, what changes would come about it this would happen? (Good and Bad)

kirgi08
08-06-2011, 19:05
Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade?

If you are a day trader operating on margin, if the market starts to go down, you have to cover, get out or sell short.

If you are a mutual fund and sense that the value of your portfolio is about to drop, then you go to cash.


This is not a result of a "panic",it's a dry run with motive,granted it maybe nothing.As ta mutual funds,we cashed our out when silver and gold began ta climb.'08.

bdcochran
08-06-2011, 19:34
A downgrade on a country's obligations does not mean that a country's money is not held as reserves by banks or other countries.

A 2011 study about the current dominant reserve currency in central banks shows that dollar may not be the obvious dominant currency, because of the major part of Unallocated Reserves increasingly reported by central banks since 2001

UneasyRider
08-06-2011, 19:58
Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade?

If you are a day trader operating on margin, if the market starts to go down, you have to cover, get out or sell short.

If you are a mutual fund and sense that the value of your portfolio is about to drop, then you go to cash.

It's a situation like the emperor with no clothes on, everybody says how nice he looks in his new robes until just one person says "You ain't got no clothes" and then it's all over.

pugman
08-06-2011, 20:58
Very informative post pugman, the only thing is I kinda disagree with your assessment of how much time we have, and I'll try to explain why.

When people look at a situation, they tend to do it from their perspective and using their own rationale. The hardest part of predicting time frames is considering the effect all the stuff happening has on people who are not in your particular situation, nor have your rationale.
Please don't take it wrong because we all do it to some degree or another, and I am probably guilty of putting too much emphasis on the effect a situation has on others.

I have no idea whether or not at this point you have considered it or not, so I might be preaching to the choir, but here goes...

I think we are quickly approaching a boiling point in this country with racial tension, while simultaneously reaching a boiling point with economic crisis. The "financially challenged" will be the first to respond to the economic crisis. There are allot of people of all race that are part of this "financially challenged" group. With racial tension and financial crisis, come riots. With riots comes civil disorder, with civil disorder comes increased insecurity in the stability of members of society. Things are going to snowball, and in my estimation we have less time than the 2-5 years you predict.

It's just another opinion, subject to my own rationale and perspective.

My assessment is strictly a guess.

The things I think everyone on this board will agree with.

The government will try and exercise its control as long as possible.

Our situation has no clear solution and only appears to be getting worse. By this I mean the debt will continue to increase and the federal government's promises and obligations will only continue to increase (which frankly is their own fault).

The Fed's/administration's response generally is to throw money at the problem. This money can take the form of tax cuts, borrowing and spending or taxing to reallocate money. Remember the moves Bush tried about sending people (including those who didn't pay taxes) $600? Seriously anyone with a high school education could see sending this money would have absolutely no impact; about at bad as the Obama administration extending unemployment benefits to 99 weeks.

The S won't hit the fan until the average person doesn't eat for more than a 12 hour period of time.

TangoFoxtrot
08-07-2011, 04:09
My assessment is strictly a guess.

The things I think everyone on this board will agree with.

The government will try and exercise its control as long as possible.

Our situation has no clear solution and only appears to be getting worse. By this I mean the debt will continue to increase and the federal government's promises and obligations will only continue to increase (which frankly is their own fault).

The Fed's/administration's response generally is to throw money at the problem. This money can take the form of tax cuts, borrowing and spending or taxing to reallocate money. Remember the moves Bush tried about sending people (including those who didn't pay taxes) $600? Seriously anyone with a high school education could see sending this money would have absolutely no impact; about at bad as the Obama administration extending unemployment benefits to 99 weeks.

The S won't hit the fan until the average person doesn't eat for more than a 12 hour period of time.


You hit that nail on the head!

kirgi08
08-07-2011, 04:26
You hit that nail on the head!

Now your gonna stay around on a "maybe",I'd rather not roll the dice,it's my family.Granted the field is wide open,folks,I'm running a DRILL.The results will vary.I sorta frown on those that think that we're crying wolf.'08.

kirgi08
08-07-2011, 04:44
I'm gonna say this,there having a blast.A 18 in trout and a buck scrape that's at 6ft +/-.I'm working,their enjoying a pre bought vacation.What some are ignoring is the point.We don't care about the verbage .media is espousing.We are looking thru non-rose colored glasses.There is nothing either party can espouse that will cloud our eyes ta the reality of REALITY.We're bankrupt and the sooner it hits bottom the sooner this nation can recover.

We want NO part of this,we will ghost and let the chips fall as they may.'08.

UneasyRider
08-07-2011, 09:13
There is nothing either party can espouse that will cloud our eyes ta the reality of REALITY.We're bankrupt and the sooner it hits bottom the sooner this nation can recover.

We want NO part of this,we will ghost and let the chips fall as they may.'08.

On the money kirgi. You do what you think is right and let others do what they think is right. I am still waiting for anyone to show me the math how we can get out of this thing financially, it's not possible. As proved in Wisconsin you never know when things will get ugly or how ugly things will get. If my plan were to scoot, I would be thinking about being ready to scoot too.

wjv
08-07-2011, 09:41
Over reaction. . .

This will be a slow motion train wreck that might take a couple years to complete.

The people running the Gov are masters at manipulating finances. Plus they haven't even got around to raping our 401Ks and IRS yet. . .

My guess is 3-5 years yet:

More taxes w/ token spending cuts
Even more taxes w/ token spending cuts
Yet even more taxes w/ token spending cuts
Rumors of SS/Medicare default
Plan to nationalize part of your 401K/IRA (for your protection!)
Plan to nationalize more of your 401K/IRA
Plan to nationalize the rest of your 401K/IRA

401K/IRA money gone. .
Borrowing expensive because of the even lower credit rating (maybe hitting the 'B's)

Then things fall apart

pugman
08-07-2011, 11:02
On the money kirgi. You do what you think is right and let others do what they think is right. I am still waiting for anyone to show me the math how we can get out of this thing financially, it's not possible. As proved in Wisconsin you never know when things will get ugly or how ugly things will get. If my plan were to scoot, I would be thinking about being ready to scoot too.

Its possible...it really is. The question is if its acceptable.

It would be very, very ugly. In effect the fed would have to either double its tax revenue or cut services in half.

In effect, every person in the country would be working for the federal government in one way or another. Discretionary spending and personal retirement saving would nearly stop.

The question is would the populace accept this for the next 30-100 years.

The government's problem is they have painted themselves into a corner where any correction will be harmful. Talk about removing the mortgage interest deduction on your taxes....drive a stake into the heart of the real estate market. Raid 401K and IRA accounts...kill the financial sector.

Dexters
08-07-2011, 11:18
I

It would be very, very ugly. In effect the fed would have to either double its tax revenue or cut services in half.



And let's not forget that if it is very, very ugly in the USA it will be very, very very, very, very, very, very very, very, very, very, very very, very, very, very ugly outside the USA. The USA drives much of the economies outside of it.

LongGun1
08-07-2011, 12:42
We're bankrupt and the sooner it hits bottom the sooner this nation can recover.


That is pure gold! :thumbsup:


Bankrupt.... & deep in denial! :whistling:

Unsustainable spending is.....u-n-s-u-s-t-a-i-n-a-b-l-e!!!!


The federal government wastes money like it is trash.. :steamed:

..like we are soooo wealthy that it would be a crime not to "spread the wealth".. :upeyes:


Well....wealthy is not stealing from future generations to allow short-sighted & counterproductive 'binge spending'...wealthy is not owing enemies of the USA TRILLIONS of dollars they can use to leverage and/or damage us with.....wealthy is not stealing money from lifelong hardworking grandma's & grandpa's social security trust fund just so "pimp daddy & entitlement crack momma" can propagate 10 more just like them....wealthy is not wasting money you do not have & cannot possibly repay....wealthy is not having a crumbling national infrastructure.... wealthy is not "thumbing a ride" with the Soviets because you no longer have a viable space program......do I really need to go on...


Well...due to government stupidity, greed, counterproductive social programs, excessive regulations on business, constitutional amendments, ever increasing unconstitutional encroachment into state & individual rights/responsibilities, military misadventures, etc ....

..the land of milk & honey developed by the sweat & blood of my forefathers..

..over hundreds of years of toil..

..is now anything but the land of opportunity & freedom...IMO!


But if we can shrink the MONSTER in Washington DC back into Pandora's Box..

..this country has a chance to once again fufil the dream of freedom & opportunity it once was..

...if not...

..it is my firm belief that we are collectively in for a rough ride..

..and a hard landing! :shocked:

UneasyRider
08-07-2011, 12:43
Its possible...it really is. The question is if its acceptable.

It would be very, very ugly. In effect the fed would have to either double its tax revenue or cut services in half.

In effect, every person in the country would be working for the federal government in one way or another. Discretionary spending and personal retirement saving would nearly stop.

The question is would the populace accept this for the next 30-100 years.

The government's problem is they have painted themselves into a corner where any correction will be harmful. Talk about removing the mortgage interest deduction on your taxes....drive a stake into the heart of the real estate market. Raid 401K and IRA accounts...kill the financial sector.

I believe that 100% government taxation will no longer support the federal, state and local budgets. Where does that leave us? Balanced budget ammendment is the only cure, and it's a really painful one.

Dexters
08-07-2011, 13:07
I'm more fatalistic then you.



The federal government wastes money like it is trash.. :steamed:



It will continue to do so maybe with a hick up and then at a slower pace.





But if we can shrink the MONSTER in Washington DC back into Pandora's Box..

..this country has a chance to once again fufil the dream of freedom & opportunity it once was..



No empire has come back from their financial overspending.

http://www.iie.com/events/event_detail.cfm?EventID=152

My guess is this:
Yes, in the next election there will be a lot of talk about cutting spending and some will be done. The conservatives are in control.

Compromises will be made - some tax increases, some costs cuts and it will look like the issue has been address. BUT, in reality THERE ARE SOME VERY OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTIONS IN THE COMPROMISE that do not come to be.

The the fighters for the poor will say they have taken the brunt of the cutting - spending increases. The liberals are in control.

A national sales tax is implemented in addition to an income tax. This does not decrease the debt.

Just look towards Europe for our future.

Here is the deal. I think my scenario is optimistic. We first need to get through the next 10 years which will see higher unemployment rates (increasing social support spending & lower gov't tax revenues), lower wages for those that do work (lower gov't tax revenues) and lower spending by gov't, businesses and individuals (lower gov't tax revenues).

grasshoppa
08-07-2011, 14:14
I belive drills are excellent training. The fact of the matter is that there may be many more opportunities to run them because we never really know what event will be the tipping point. Short of some act of war or terrorism, I believe the economy will continue to grind toward a certifiable depression.

Personally, I'm looking for more social unrest here and that won't happen, to a large extent, until austerity measures begin and are felt by the masses. Europe and South America are the canaries in the mine, imho.

Politically, we'll begin to see the masses looking for a messaih, like in the 30's when the US communist party begin to grow or Germany's Nazi party took power.

What are we going to do differently? Probably not much. For us, it's a lifestyle.

By the way, Israel's market is down 7% today.

LongGun1
08-07-2011, 15:13
No empire has come back from their financial overspending.



Not really looking for an "empire".. :upeyes:

..a constitutional republic suits me just fine! :thumbsup:

kirgi08
08-07-2011, 15:24
That will require a new beginning,we've lost sight of our roots.'08.

JFrame
08-07-2011, 18:23
Hey '08,

I admire and envy your preparedness.

As Ruble said earlier -- the worst case outcome for you is that you will have gone through a practical exercise, have had an opportunity to fine-tune your strategies, and have possibly figured out more of what you need (or don't need, for that matter). And in the best case (strange to refer to it that way...), you will already be essentially positioned where you need to be.

Wifey and I are hardly so admirably positioned. We have no BOL, so we'll do our best to "hunker down" in our house. Road arteries out of the Washington metropolitan area are limited and would congest immediately -- so if you're not already out, you're not going anywhere for awhile.

Man -- I can't wait till I'm retired and we can relocate someplace, like maybe somewhere in the southwest...


.

barbedwiresmile
08-07-2011, 19:32
Is this going to be a major SHTF event? Don't know. If it is, being ahead of the hordes is not a bad idea. If not, it is a good exercise and gives you the opportunity to evaluate and assess your preparedness planning by going through a trial run.

Concur. Good post.

barbedwiresmile
08-07-2011, 19:34
Where will you be going?

Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade? A downgrade that was based on faulty calculations BTW, which may cause them to retract it.

LMAO.

Oh, I don't doubt it will be retracted. Faulty calculations?! :rofl::rofl:

Lone Kimono
08-07-2011, 22:23
I don't think it's time for society to collapse just yet, but it's now a matter of when not if. I'm currently debating if it's time to stop worrying about savings and time to start worrying about buying everything I need. I'm not sure it's time for that yet either.

Kieller
08-08-2011, 11:32
Sounds like a successful dry-run Kirgi. It definitely pays to be ahead of the curve, especially if the outcome is a vacation at the BOL. Lord knows I wouldn't mind having a place like that to spend my weekends!

Personally I think its a great idea to have a sitdown with the family and talk about the impacts also. I did the same with my better half and we have decided to trim some stuff back for the next month or two at the minimum and see how it plays out.

It's obvious why Sam's was so busy on sunday, everyone was stocking up on grub and other stuff! We were there just getting the normal weekly necessities.

I'm with most other folks that I don't think that the downgrade is the end all but I do think it is a rude awakening to the guberment that they are on notice. However, I find it much better to be prudent and make a long weekend out of a visit to the BOL then the off chance that something could go south in a hurry.

I would guess that we will have a slow decline yet and that things won't get crazy outta hand for awhile...but that is solely my opinion. Time will tell and hopefully everyone else on here will heed the warning bells that you have.

pugman
08-08-2011, 16:19
I believe that 100% government taxation will no longer support the federal, state and local budgets. Where does that leave us? Balanced budget ammendment is the only cure, and it's a really painful one.

Don't miss my point....its possible...crazy, ludacris....but possible.

100% taxation would support the government.

If you use 2010 numbers of 2.14 Trillion in income vs 3.4 Trillion in expenditures doubling income would more than cover.

However, over the next 30 years the fed has $150 trillion in obligations...at 30 years...that is a cool $5 trillion a year. To make matters worse we aren't figuring in inflation and interest....call it $5.5-$6 trillion for good measure.

If the fed ate up about 40% of GDP would cover its costs. All along representatives would have their golden medical coverage plans and starting salaries placing them in the top 7-8% of the nation.

Like I said...its possible...although if they instituted a flat 40% tax across the board I doubt it would be collected long....

UneasyRider
08-08-2011, 19:14
Don't miss my point....its possible...crazy, ludacris....but possible.

100% taxation would support the government.

If you use 2010 numbers of 2.14 Trillion in income vs 3.4 Trillion in expenditures doubling income would more than cover.

However, over the next 30 years the fed has $150 trillion in obligations...at 30 years...that is a cool $5 trillion a year. To make matters worse we aren't figuring in inflation and interest....call it $5.5-$6 trillion for good measure.

If the fed ate up about 40% of GDP would cover its costs. All along representatives would have their golden medical coverage plans and starting salaries placing them in the top 7-8% of the nation.

Like I said...its possible...although if they instituted a flat 40% tax across the board I doubt it would be collected long....

It won't work because I won't work if I don't get paid. 100% taxation means that everyone stays home, and that is what really bothers a progressive, raising tax rates hurts the economy and people of our country. We need to cut spending by a lot, quit giving away money (which ammendment allows that?), and get government out of the picture.

What I would do is eliminate taxes on businesses completely. Flat tax or fair tax for the federal government, and get rid of the commerce clause to the constitution with an ammendment.

kirgi08
08-13-2011, 07:48
Well there back home,my kid finished the archery course and spent a ton of time fishing and tracking.The wife filled 2 cards on her digital camera and introduced the in-laws in how ta clean/skin and prepare game.FIL was ok with it,MIL was squeamish at first but got the hang of it.It was kinda suggested she may need this skill or go hungry down the line.

Problems:

There were a few,one of the coleman lanterns had bad pump "O" rings,my kid showed the ILs how ta replace it.

Next, on inspection of the chimney a critter had gotten thru the mesh and taken up residence,a small fire in the stove moved them along.I'll repair that next week.

BIG problem on the last day they found evidence of someone shooting out there,I'll call a wildlife officer that's a friend and ask him ta keep an extra check.

Since it's a wee bit higher out there it takes a little longer ta cook rice/beans and ta bake bread/cake in the dutch ovens,they were using a firepit ta cook the whole time

Water:We have a well with a solar b/u and the solar panel needs ta be moved,I underestimated the growth of certain trees and will havta adjust the location.

Power:They fired up the diesel and then took a hike,they were trying ta see how far the noise sig carried,not far-about 30yrds,I built a military type baffle system for it-problem is the exhaust smoke-I'll figure that out.Fuel is 2yrs old and it fired rt up.

Access:Our vehicles got right out there,the ILs couldn't for the stream,AWD CRV,answer they need a decent,real 4wd,Kat had the Jeep,no probs. :cool:

Health:The actually gained a little weight even with all the activity: 2000cal base diet.

Comms:The cbs were spotty during the daylight,I attribute that ta the solar activity.It's reeking havoc on our work radios also.

Upside:

They worked as a team without me there ta couch,some would say DI them.
They worked on fire drills and unwanted company drills-I might add the dogs weren't out there,I needed them here when I was at work.

Skills:

They taught the ILs howta start fires with a blastmatch/9v steel wool/flint@steel and with zippo fluid.Howta build a birds nest and how/where ta find dry tinder.

Shooting:

Kat taught basic rifle with the 10/22s we brought out there,we also introduced them ta the joys of a AR-7,that'll take some work.

Pistols:Ruger mkIIs they all shot well with them,we moved them up ta a DA/SA ruger .38 police and started them out on SA then moved up ta DA,my MIL shoot that pistol better than my FIL did,he's aaahhh irritated,I expect there will be more "private" range time.

Blades:My kid showed them the basics of knife sharpening and safety,not bad for 11yo.I'll handle the axe and maul myself.Saws are also on the list.

Leisure:Card games/board games chess/checkers are a life saver in those type of scenarios.We have all the above x2.

Synopsis:

I believe this was a success and would encourage all folks ta try this with there families and take notes,Kat used a pocket recorder and took notes just ta be safe.All comments are welcome.Thanks.'08.

JFrame
08-13-2011, 08:16
Thanks for the recap, '08. http://www.kolobok.us/smiles/standart/good2.gif

Excellent work done out there -- lessons both learned and dispensed.

And it sounds like everyone had a pretty great time on top of that.

A win-win all around, I'd say... :cool:


.

Cavalry Doc
08-13-2011, 08:34
Wow. All I did was move money out of bonds and into stocks, after the fall. A little bargain hunting was in order.

kirgi08
08-13-2011, 18:41
...........................

LongGun1
08-14-2011, 01:40
Nice trial run! :thumbsup:


Sounds like the IL appreciate your combined skill-sets..

.. & the need to crank it up a notch! :supergrin:

Glocktastic
08-14-2011, 08:25
Awesome. It sounds like you have a sweet setup, and a good trial run.

kirgi08
08-15-2011, 12:20
:bump:

certifiedfunds
08-16-2011, 07:20
Don't miss my point....its possible...crazy, ludacris....but possible.

100% taxation would support the government.

If you use 2010 numbers of 2.14 Trillion in income vs 3.4 Trillion in expenditures doubling income would more than cover.

However, over the next 30 years the fed has $150 trillion in obligations...at 30 years...that is a cool $5 trillion a year. To make matters worse we aren't figuring in inflation and interest....call it $5.5-$6 trillion for good measure.

If the fed ate up about 40% of GDP would cover its costs. All along representatives would have their golden medical coverage plans and starting salaries placing them in the top 7-8% of the nation.

Like I said...its possible...although if they instituted a flat 40% tax across the board I doubt it would be collected long....

They may get their 40% of the pie but that pie is gonna get smaller every year.

certifiedfunds
08-16-2011, 07:34
They say timing is everything.

We're on virgin ground here so it would be impossible to criticize your alarm. The safest bet is that things will continue to decline (however you define that) for at least a decade.

The funny thing about financial crisis is it happens all of a sudden. Like watching a flock of blackbirds suddenly change course midflight, the markets suddenly decide they don't like something and the situation changes seemingly overnight.

Now in retrospect there were always warning signs. Obvious indications that problems were on the horizon. But for most, normalcy bias makes them invisible.

Kudos to you for the dry run. Sounds like your family certainly enjoyed it. Though this may not be an acute event there may be one on the near horizon. Your skids are greased.

But did ya have to give away all your firewood?

certifiedfunds
08-16-2011, 07:37
Well there back home,my kid finished the archery course and spent a ton of time fishing and tracking.The wife filled 2 cards on her digital camera and introduced the in-laws in how ta clean/skin and prepare game.FIL was ok with it,MIL was squeamish at first but got the hang of it.It was kinda suggested she may need this skill or go hungry down the line.

Problems:

There were a few,one of the coleman lanterns had bad pump "O" rings,my kid showed the ILs how ta replace it.

Next, on inspection of the chimney a critter had gotten thru the mesh and taken up residence,a small fire in the stove moved them along.I'll repair that next week.

BIG problem on the last day they found evidence of someone shooting out there,I'll call a wildlife officer that's a friend and ask him ta keep an extra check.

Since it's a wee bit higher out there it takes a little longer ta cook rice/beans and ta bake bread/cake in the dutch ovens,they were using a firepit ta cook the whole time

Water:We have a well with a solar b/u and the solar panel needs ta be moved,I underestimated the growth of certain trees and will havta adjust the location.

Power:They fired up the diesel and then took a hike,they were trying ta see how far the noise sig carried,not far-about 30yrds,I built a military type baffle system for it-problem is the exhaust smoke-I'll figure that out.Fuel is 2yrs old and it fired rt up.

Access:Our vehicles got right out there,the ILs couldn't for the stream,AWD CRV,answer they need a decent,real 4wd,Kat had the Jeep,no probs. :cool:

Health:The actually gained a little weight even with all the activity: 2000cal base diet.

Comms:The cbs were spotty during the daylight,I attribute that ta the solar activity.It's reeking havoc on our work radios also.

Upside:

They worked as a team without me there ta couch,some would say DI them.
They worked on fire drills and unwanted company drills-I might add the dogs weren't out there,I needed them here when I was at work.

Skills:

They taught the ILs howta start fires with a blastmatch/9v steel wool/flint@steel and with zippo fluid.Howta build a birds nest and how/where ta find dry tinder.

Shooting:

Kat taught basic rifle with the 10/22s we brought out there,we also introduced them ta the joys of a AR-7,that'll take some work.

Pistols:Ruger mkIIs they all shot well with them,we moved them up ta a DA/SA ruger .38 police and started them out on SA then moved up ta DA,my MIL shoot that pistol better than my FIL did,he's aaahhh irritated,I expect there will be more "private" range time.

Blades:My kid showed them the basics of knife sharpening and safety,not bad for 11yo.I'll handle the axe and maul myself.Saws are also on the list.

Leisure:Card games/board games chess/checkers are a life saver in those type of scenarios.We have all the above x2.

Synopsis:

I believe this was a success and would encourage all folks ta try this with there families and take notes,Kat used a pocket recorder and took notes just ta be safe.All comments are welcome.Thanks.'08.

Awesome Kirgi!

kirgi08
08-16-2011, 08:00
Thanks my friend,I want a critique and welcome all questions/comments.This was set up by Kat and I,I wasn't there,we set up the agenda and they went with it.I respect any and all opinions,afaik,were the only ones ta run this type of scenario and I'd like a 360 degree perspective of it.Thanks for your time.'08.

certifiedfunds
08-16-2011, 08:11
Thanks my friend,I want a critique and welcome all questions/comments.This was set up by Kat and I,I wasn't there,we set up the agenda and they went with it.I respect any and all opinions,afaik,were the only ones ta run this type of scenario and I'd like a 360 degree perspective of it.Thanks for your time.'08.

I gotta be honest with you. You have me wanting to go spend a week or two out at Camp Kirgi

:supergrin:

kirgi08
08-16-2011, 08:23
No little ds allowed.You got mail,folks post up,all comments are needed.'08.

UneasyRider
08-16-2011, 09:41
I really like what you did. I think of it the same as when my wife and I started long distance motorcycle riding. Every time that we went on a trip we would modify our list of what came with us and what stayed home, many items we just needed to buy better quality (I only buy once know). It's not about quantity, it's about having the right stuff in the right quality, sounds like you have that under control.

It sounds like you learned some things about your equipment in the real world and you can't beat that. We are going to make a test run soon for bugging in as opposed to bugging out (you inspired us), I am going to pull the main breaker for a long weekend before it gets cool out and see what happens.

kirgi08
08-17-2011, 11:54
:cool:

Let us know how it turns out.We run "lights out" at least 2 times a year,once in the winter and 1 more random time during the year.

CF,we didn't give away the fire wood,if we really havta bug out we will.We can't really haul 14 cords of wood.'08. :tongueout:

kirgi08
08-17-2011, 11:57
I gotta be honest with you. You have me wanting to go spend a week or two out at Camp Kirgi

:supergrin:

Come on up,we'll see if'n we can understand each others accents.'08. :cool:

quake
08-17-2011, 13:13
Come on up,we'll see if'n we can understand each others accents.'08. :cool:

Good luck with that. I've been 30 years right here in Texas and Arkansas, and I still can't understand people from Louisiana half the time.


"Oooohhhh! Da's a biggis insect! Choot 'im & throw it in de pot!" :supergrin:

kirgi08
08-17-2011, 13:19
:eat:

certifiedfunds
08-17-2011, 14:08
Come on up,we'll see if'n we can understand each others accents.'08. :cool:

I don't have an accent.

:supergrin:

certifiedfunds
08-17-2011, 14:09
Good luck with that. I've been 30 years right here in Texas and Arkansas, and I still can't understand people from Louisiana half the time.


"Oooohhhh! Da's a biggis insect! Choot 'im & throw it in de pot!" :supergrin:

You oughta see us trying to program some voice command thing.

kirgi08
10-20-2011, 23:34
:bump:

We got snow hitting our northern counties,we are gonna run another "retreat" cycle.My home is in Leicester NC,the bol is in Madison NC.Kat is out there as I type.I'm gonna go on batt power at 6am.I'm here with no power/upcoming and planning on solar/batts ta power what I need.I won't fire up the genny unless it's an emergency.Gas/wood stove ta cook,I'll use the stove over the range.I can get wood outside,I however can't depend on a "gas" delivery.We have a source of ng here,not there.So let's see how this goes.'08.

Dexters
10-21-2011, 07:56
ta....

kirgi08
02-10-2012, 23:47
:bump:

kirgi08
03-27-2012, 12:28
:bump:

certifiedfunds
03-27-2012, 14:54
:bump:

ur back! pm me

kirgi08
07-09-2012, 10:53
Never left..'08.

:bump:

kirgi08
07-09-2012, 11:20
Folk,I bumped for reason.Check food prices and GDP ratings.'08. :scared:

BR549
07-23-2012, 10:28
Folk,I bumped for reason.Check food prices and GDP ratings.'08. :scared:

RUN TO THE HILLS ! ! ! (...again...)

:outtahere:

kirgi08
07-23-2012, 10:33
:upeyes:

If'n youse can't add ta.Go away.'08.


I can't help youse relies on .gub ta take care of your family. :sad:

BR549
07-23-2012, 10:56
:upeyes:

If'n youse can't add ta.Go away.'08.


I can't help youse relies on .gub ta take care of your family. :sad:

..youse jes lyke da eLGee1..

..tries ta say somefin dat ain't da trufe 'bout other folks...

..and yerseff...

me takes kara me but me don't run fer da hills e'er tyme de news flash comes on duh teebee and da GTSPers say weez is in twubble...

youse see...

:dunno:

:wavey: