Long-term wide-spread power outages [Archive] - Glock Talk

PDA

View Full Version : Long-term wide-spread power outages


cowboy1964
08-10-2011, 19:22
So I keep reading about how it would literally take years (if not decades) to replace all the transformers that could potentially be blown out in a worst-case solar storm. My question to throw out to you all is, wouldn't the world's resources be ramped up to solve that quicker?

A bigger problem is the hundreds of nuclear plants that would have serious problems without cooling of their spent fuel. Think Fukushima times 100. But no, we don't need passive storage in Nevada, that's just crazy.

Toyman
08-10-2011, 19:38
That would be so cool, like a giant reset button on the earth.

racerford
08-10-2011, 20:20
Given all the potential issues with nuclear reactors, I do not know why they are not building Thorium fuel reactors in stead of Uranium fuel reactors?

There is nothing cool about the reset button for Earth being pushed.

LongGun1
08-10-2011, 23:19
So I keep reading about how it would literally take years (if not decades) to replace all the transformers that could potentially be blown out in a worst-case solar storm. My question to throw out to you all is, wouldn't the world's resources be ramped up to solve that quicker?




The plants that mfg these items are not sitting idle waiting for a WCS CME..

..they are businesses with enough capacity & inventory to address the current needs of their customer base.


A company that may make a few of these transformers a year..

..simply does not have the capacity to suddenly make thousands..

..especially as the SHTF event may limit their production capacity to less than normal.

Inventory taxes & current management practices are counterproductive to a timely response from a WCS such as an HEMP or major CME..

..as I know of many industries/businesses (mine included) that destroy quite valuable (& sometimes irreplaceable :whistling: ) inventory to keep from paying the tax.

Also & frequently... items are routinely trash-canned if not used in a given time period & for 5S purposes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5S_%28methodology%29


In short...we live in a very shortsighted "just in time delivery" society.. :upeyes:

..a way of doing business that will hurt us greatly when a future Carrington Event strikes...IMO!

TangoFoxtrot
08-11-2011, 02:34
First off, The biggest concern is the big panic of the sheeple. The riots, looting and mayhem caused by a major power outage. The next stage would be all the suicides that would occur due to a lack of internet and cell phones.

Syclone538
08-11-2011, 08:26
What is WCS CME?

Bilbo Bagins
08-11-2011, 11:57
That would be so cool, like a giant reset button on the earth.

So is your life full of errors and you feel its better to reboot :rofl:

It would suck bad. No power means the economy would collapse. Also the vast majority of people in the US and other countries are 3 days away from starvation. Local stores and warehouses will either run out of food, or be looted. No power means also means multiple Japan-like nuclear meltdowns as cooling station lose power. No running water, and sewage issues with no power too. There would be a boatload of crime, looting, an anarchy for at least 6 months to a year.

DoctaGlockta
08-11-2011, 12:39
That would be so cool, like a giant reset button on the earth.

<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/296jHs4im-U" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="349" width="425"></iframe>

You should have included this video with your statement. :upeyes:

Fail to understand the 'cool' factor as well.:dunno:

UneasyRider
08-11-2011, 15:51
We would find a way to rewind them by hand. Labor would be cheap and available, desire would be very high, I think that we would figure out a way to get it done, even if only a temporary fix.

Bolster
08-11-2011, 16:59
What better way to enforce 'alternate energy' sources (solar, wind) than to degrade the reliable electric grid?

What better way to get people to buy electric cars than make gas over $4/gal?

wtf0ver
08-11-2011, 17:21
i recently read lights out, and believe the book to be accurate for a long term wide spread power outage type situation

LongGun1
08-11-2011, 18:36
What is WCS CME?


Worst Case Scenario (of a) Coronal Mass Ejection


Think.......1859 Carrington Event or worse


More detail on CME here...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30TXQkNBB9k&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nj5ZBJM8jso&feature=related

jdavionic
08-11-2011, 19:17
A company that may make a few of these transformers a year..

..simply does not have the capacity to suddenly make thousands..

..especially as the SHTF event may limit their production capacity to less than normal.



In my industry, we saw this when the economy was beginning to show some signs of improvement, which was subsequently erased. However during those small growth spurts, we found that even major manufacturers of components were unable to respond in a timely. We had ICs that we used to get in short order...suddenly lead times were 18-24 wks, for the same item that was previously stocked at distributors. Distributors stopped carrying inventory, manufacturers cut production capacity with the slowing economy, and then when demand grew...users of the components had to wait.

wrenrj1
08-11-2011, 19:24
Read the book "One Second After" about an EMP that hits the US. While fictional, I wouldn't call it a walk in the park. It brings up some interesting issues.

jdavionic
08-11-2011, 19:26
Read the book "One Second After" about an EMP that hits the US. While fictional, I wouldn't call it a walk in the park. It brings up some interesting issues.

Already did...and I agree. Good book.

Syclone538
08-11-2011, 19:43
Worst Case Scenario (of a) Coronal Mass Ejection


Think.......1859 Carrington Event or worse


More detail on CME here...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30TXQkNBB9k&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nj5ZBJM8jso&feature=related

Ok, thanks. Figured what wcs was, and have a limited knowledge of solar flares, but had never heard the term Coronal Mass Ejection.

Would this be regional, or worldwide?

LongGun1
08-11-2011, 20:59
What better way to enforce 'alternate energy' sources (solar, wind) than to degrade the reliable electric grid?




That is if the PN semiconductor junction in the PV Panels survive.. :whistling:


One of the reasons I do not endorse PV for SHTF..

..as it is very H-EMP, CME, Lightning, etc... susceptable


I would bet on well shielded Micro Wind/Water Turbines faring much better..

..especially if stand-alone (not Grid Intertied).


Also....not too hard or too expensive to have 10K or 20K worth of ready spares in EMP resistant storage for your micro-wind/water setup..

(in case of catastrophic loss where there is little to no possibly of replacement)

..but 125K to a quarter million dollars or so in PV Panels as spares..

..fewer have the means or the willingness to take it to that level!



YMMV

PlasticGuy
08-11-2011, 21:07
...A bigger problem is the hundreds of nuclear plants that would have serious problems without cooling of their spent fuel. Think Fukushima times 100. But no, we don't need passive storage in Nevada, that's just crazy.
This is incorrect. Our nuclear power plants have the ability to cool their reactors and short term spent fuel pools without electricity coming from offsite. Even without offsite power, a Fukushima type event would not happen, as long as other resources were available and other major damage didn't occur at the same time.

Also, the storage at Yucca Mountain would be for older spent fuel and high grade waste that no longer needs active cooling. It would be nice to consolidate it though. I'd love to see my plant ship ours out to a permanent storage facility somewhere.

LongGun1
08-11-2011, 21:15
Ok, thanks. Figured what wcs was, and have a limited knowledge of solar flares, but had never heard the term Coronal Mass Ejection.

Would this be regional, or worldwide?


It can be regional (i.e. Canada 1989 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm )

..but if a major CME..

..it would be a worldwide issue...directly or indirectly! :shocked:

LongGun1
08-11-2011, 21:21
In my industry, we say this when the economy was beginning to show some signs of improvement, which was subsequently erased. However during those small growth spurts, we found that even major manufacturers of components were unable to respond in a timely. We had ICs that we used to get in short order...suddenly lead times were 18-24 wks, for the same item that was previously stocked at distributors. Distributors stopped carrying inventory, manufacturers cut production capacity with the slowing economy, and then when demand grew...users of the components had to wait.




Hey, sometimes I try be an Optimist! :clown: :rofl: :supergrin:


But, yes...we do experience the same...

jdavionic
08-11-2011, 21:28
Hey, sometimes I try be an Optimist! :clown: :rofl: :supergrin:


But, yes...we do experience the same...

Yea, I know. Optimists tend to die with a shocked look on their faces. Where realists come out of the trees, take their belongings, and move along. I try to be an optimist too, but the reality of our current times has significantly changed what I am most optimistic about :supergrin: