Predictive Policing [Archive] - Glock Talk

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CAcop
08-19-2011, 12:53
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/US/santa-cruz-police-math-predict-prevent-crime/story?id=14335517

What do you think?

Mayhem like Me
08-19-2011, 13:00
It's smoke and mirrors you CAN predict , certain trends , so where , and when to patrol.. You will never get a time date and address.
Nothing new really and the math is not that hard it's all probability equations.
Works best on spree crimes... does not work well on spur crimes.

blueiron
08-19-2011, 13:01
It is the 21st century version of the pin map, with the reinforcement of both operations research and statistical analysis mathematics disciplines.

volsbear
08-19-2011, 13:04
"[The program] doesn't give me legal reason to arrest somebody just for being in my hot spot, but it gives me good reason to stop and ask what they are doing," he said.
WTF is your brain for, dude?

I like technology. As long as it's used as a tool and not a crutch. A 40% rate of prediction resulting in 5 arrests doesn't seem statistically or even numerically sufficient. My only problem with techno junk like this is that as we continue to hire younger and younger people who depend more and more on technology, that eventually the inquisitive street cop mentality will get replaced with a stupid computer.

We see it in probation, too. Plenty of technological "advancements" that are allegedly here to help do our job better but have created a generation of people dependent upon computers to make decisions. Hell - half our staff has more than 10 years experience and many of those people still can't navigate the major streets in the jurisdiction since the bosses decided the purchase of GPS was a super-cool idea.

And to navigate is a fundamentally simple intellectual task. Imagine how much vital, critical-thinking skills would be forever affected if LEOs of every job classification let the computer think for them.

I think the idea is great in theory but implementation will be the key. The bosses better find a way to keep people thinking about what they're doing instead of letting the computer do it for them.

/rant.

EOD3
08-19-2011, 13:10
WOW, predicting when and where crimes will be committed? I've never met a LEO with more than a year on the job that couldn't guess right 40% of the time. Fire the computer geek(s) and hire a few more officers. Less geeks, more officers, a win/win in my book.

ateamer
08-19-2011, 13:18
A good cop knows his beat and knows where and when to be to find the crooks. This stuff is like Gerbil Voodoo - okay for rookies who haven't gotten much experience yet.

DaBigBR
08-19-2011, 13:44
I am also a huge proponent of technology in LE, BUT...

I think that sometimes in handicaps us. How many times have any of you seen a vehicle that was just begging to be stopped, and had a valid violation, but you let it go because the plates came back clear and the registered owner had a valid license? I know that I apply some of that "logic" and always kick myself for doing it when I end up getting something good out of a car that I would have wrote off because of the computer.

Dragoon44
08-19-2011, 13:47
OMG! what incredible advances in police procedure! that someone can predict that there will be more crime in areas known for high crime!

My modest effort at predictive policing is to predict that there are officers, (and administrative personnel that come up with stuff like this are disproportionaly represented) that couldn't find their ass with both hands and a flashlight.

:rofl:

Hack
08-19-2011, 16:02
Hmm ... predictive? I predict that crime will happen, is happening, has happened. And, all that without a degree.:whistling:

Ajon412
08-19-2011, 16:30
It is the 21st century version of the pin map, with the reinforcement of both operations research and statistical analysis mathematics disciplines.

I was thinking the same thing......A new face on old technology...

fla2760
08-19-2011, 17:53
Patterns son, patterns. It also is a plus to have some of the lesser miscreants on your post you have given a break whisper in your ear from time to time. Community policing 101.

ClydeG19
08-19-2011, 18:04
So they are pretty much using GIS to see where and when crime is happening and is likely to continue happening? Hasn't this been going on for a while now?

GackMan
08-19-2011, 18:07
I've got it...

"increase patrol in ****ty neighborhoods where all the crime happens."

I predicted that is where the next crimes will happen.

fastbolt
08-19-2011, 23:45
I remember enjoying a lot of laughs when the movie Demolition Man was released, and not just for the over-the-top role given to Snipes and his portrayal of the character (which he obviously enjoyed), but especially for the way the futuristic policing methods and mindset of the San Angeles Police Department was portrayed.

My smiles became more rueful with each passing repeat viewing of it over the years.

Cochese
08-19-2011, 23:49
This is a retarded waste of money.

**** like this is why I don't have a ****ing fence around my PD lot! :steamed:

MeefZah
08-20-2011, 03:33
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWL3Uw7872s&feature=related

COLOSHOOTR
08-20-2011, 03:57
WOW, predicting when and where crimes will be committed? I've never met a LEO with more than a year on the job that couldn't guess right 40% of the time. Fire the computer geek(s) and hire a few more officers. Less geeks, more officers, a win/win in my book.

Just 40%? Na, I'd give a good cop a 75% chance of nailing it on the head. We all know where our turds are and we know the places they do their dirt.

I agree though... Less computer nerds more street cops with some common sense and a little street smarts.