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Dexters
09-05-2011, 06:47
I think the stock market will be going down strong into late Sept/early Oct, then a weak rebound and then continue down until mid 2012.

Take a look at foreign stock markets today - Monday 0/5
Down 2-3% as I write this.
http://finance.yahoo.com/

Germany looking very bad. They probably will not want to bail out Spain & Italy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair =on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225+Interactive#symbol=^N225;range=1y

There is still time to get out. You can tell by the foreign currency market. The flight to safety of the US$ has not begun yet in earnest.

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/forex-rates/

I know a lot of people are expecting high inflation due to what central banks are doing. That will probably happen later in the decade. First we will have general deflation because money is being destroyed faster than it is printed. Add to that higher unemployment and companies will not be able to raise prices. Expect oil to fall as the markets price in a recession, less demand and a stronger dollar.

Here are the US markets futures
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html

Dexters
09-05-2011, 07:27
The French stock market is probably getting hit hard because their banks are not too strong either. Down over 4% as I write this.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^FCHI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^fchi;range=1d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=o n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

kirgi08
09-05-2011, 07:50
Tick-Tock.'08.

Dexters
09-05-2011, 09:12
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-04/berlusconi-moves-to-pass-new-austerity-package-as-general-strike-looms.html

Italy looking like Greece.

cowboy1964
09-05-2011, 12:48
I don't think the U.S. stock market will fall too much more in the short term. A lot of companies are still making a lot of money and their PE ratios are becoming quite reasonable (which means they are a good buy). And as you said, global money will be coming to the U.S. for safety (how ironic, huh?)

But it's all good for gold and silver. Buy, baby, buy!

The Euro will be gone in 5-10 years, if not sooner.

Dexters
09-05-2011, 13:09
I don't think the U.S. stock market will fall too much more in the short term. A lot of companies are still making a lot of money and their PE ratios are becoming quite reasonable (which means they are a good buy). And as you said, global money will be coming to the U.S. for safety (how ironic, huh?)

But it's all good for gold and silver. Buy, baby, buy!

The Euro will be gone in 5-10 years, if not sooner.

'too much more'
'short term'
Are you a stock salesman?

I'm guessing the S&P will hit 1,000 by the end of Sept/early Oct. When the dollar strengthens gold will weaken also but not very much maybe lower by $200.

cowboy1964
09-05-2011, 13:31
'too much more'
'short term'
Are you a stock salesman?

I'm guessing the S&P will hit 1,000 by the end of Sept/early Oct. When the dollar strengthens gold will weaken also but not very much maybe lower by $200.

I got out of the market (except for two of my fave stocks) completely back in June. I really don't see another 15% drop in the next month. Could happen but the fact is a lot of great stocks are good buys at this point. For now I'm just "week trading" my fave stocks, playing these ups and downs. I try not to hold anything over the weekend as who knows what kind of crap will happen on a day-to-day basis now.

ArmoryDoc
09-05-2011, 14:14
Watch the middle east for the big catalyst. That pot is nearing a boil.

ArmoryDoc
09-05-2011, 16:02
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4118220,00.html

A little sabre-rattling by the Israelis but don't underestimate the seriousness of the underlying warning. I think they are itching to take out Iran before they can manifest into a nuke threat. The Ruskies are assisting Iran with their engineers on site. That whole middle east is a dry powder keg.

Dexters
09-05-2011, 16:14
I got out of the market (except for two of my fave stocks) completely back in June. I really don't see another 15% drop in the next month. Could happen but the fact is a lot of great stocks are good buys at this point. For now I'm just "week trading" my fave stocks, playing these ups and downs. I try not to hold anything over the weekend as who knows what kind of crap will happen on a day-to-day basis now.

Well, I think we are on the same page except for the size of the decline, I'm in 90% cash and 10% short.

London was down 3.5% and Germany 5.28% - if the S&P gets hit 4% tomorrow or this week that is only another 11% to 15%. I think that is doable.

Dexters
09-05-2011, 16:15
Watch the middle east for the big catalyst. That pot is nearing a boil.

Middle East
9/11
European financial problems
Obama speech

A lot of things to go wrong.

Restless28
09-05-2011, 17:56
I'm in it for the long haul. Even if it crashes, it will come back. The money that controls politicians will see to it.

Mabo
09-05-2011, 17:59
I think if anyone could accurately predict what the stock market was going to do they wouldn't be posting here on glocktalk...

Dexters
09-05-2011, 18:04
I think if anyone could accurately predict what the stock market was going to do they wouldn't be posting here on glocktalk...

Why not?

There are a lot more aspects to life than money.

Ruble Noon
09-05-2011, 19:46
Middle East
9/11
European financial problems
Obama speech

A lot of things to go wrong.

The obama speech will probably be the most devastating thing in your list for the stock market.

Mabo
09-05-2011, 21:44
Why not?

There are a lot more aspects to life than money.

That sounds like something poor people tell themselves so they can justify their time spent on glock talk... Just messing with you, after all I'm on here too.

I'm not saying your predictions won't be right, you did well by starting off your post with the key words "I think..." I just feel like everyone on the S&P forum preaches doom and gloom and we would all be better off if we stepped back and took a deep breath. Also if Germany backed the Greece bail out why do you think they would not back an Italy/Spain bail out?

cowboy1964
09-05-2011, 21:51
Yeah Israel is the wild card here. That's getting close to finally reaching the tipping point and could blow at any time. I am absolutely convinced Israel will attack the nuclear sites in Iran, it's just a question of when. Five years ago I would have said it would have happened by now. But surely it can't be too much longer.

Dexters
09-06-2011, 05:28
That sounds like something poor people tell themselves so they can justify their time spent on glock talk... Just messing with you, after all I'm on here too.

I'm not saying your predictions won't be right, you did well by starting off your post with the key words "I think..." I just feel like everyone on the S&P forum preaches doom and gloom and we would all be better off if we stepped back and took a deep breath. Also if Germany backed the Greece bail out why do you think they would not back an Italy/Spain bail out?

Thanks - I appreciate a respectful give and take.
As to Germany - the people are voting against Merkel and are tired of bail out and fear the future economic problems like people here are.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15364240,00.html

The German constitutional court could require the Parliament to approve the bailout with the support of the people might not support the bailouts.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903648204576552763055567014.html

pugman
09-06-2011, 08:38
Italy is indeed a big deal.

When you look at the global economies...Greece is 32nd largest in size, Ireland (the forgotten step child) is 43rd, Portugal which was getting some press a while back is 38th.

Italy on the other hand is 8th and is only a hair behind the U.K.

Bilbo Bagins
09-06-2011, 09:51
Economic Doom and Gloom until the 2012 elections. If the republicans win, the economy will fall off the radar, and it will be doom and gloom of an attack coming from Iran, or even Venezuel. Mark my words.

dsa1115
09-06-2011, 10:21
Most Americans don't have a full appreciation of the problems in Euroland. Just take a look at the yields on CDS securities and perhaps some will grasp the nature of the problem. Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Belgium are in a sorry state of total debt and yearly deficits. The biggest European banks are leveraged at 40/50 to 1 even today. Massive de-leveraging is coming. Make no mistake.

pugman
09-06-2011, 10:45
Economic Doom and Gloom until the 2012 elections. If the republicans win, the economy will fall off the radar, and it will be doom and gloom of an attack coming from Iran, or even Venezuel. Mark my words.

This unfortunately would be part of the problem.

We don't need the economy to fall off the radar...we need it fixed. The problem, just like credit cards, is its easy and quick to get in but will take decades if not centuries to get out.

The advertised national debt as it stands now is roughly a 100 year problem to pay off completely within current debt/payment ratios of 9-10% of the fed's income.

Add in the obligations and promises of the federal government and its 1,000 year problem which in part is probably why no one is worried about it.

We don't need to call it doom and gloom when in fact its real

poodleshooter1
09-06-2011, 14:06
I was looking for a thread on this earlier today. I bought in earlier today thinking I would flip it in a week or so for a cool profit when I noticed just a few minutes later I had a reasonable profit and decided to cash in. Don't get greedy, lost too much money in the past by being greedy.

Now I must wait for the funds to settle before I can trade again. Usually takes 3 days :(

JDSTG58
09-07-2011, 16:55
..........

cowboy1964
09-07-2011, 17:07
These daily swings are ridiculous. Down 3-4% one day, up 3-4% the next. I love playing these but come on.

poodleshooter1
09-07-2011, 17:19
These daily swings are ridiculous. Down 3-4% one day, up 3-4% the next. I love playing these but come on.

:cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:

JDSTG58
09-08-2011, 13:42
........

Dexters
09-22-2011, 03:18
I think the stock market will be going down strong into late Sept/early Oct, then a weak rebound and then continue down until mid 2012.

Take a look at foreign stock markets today - Monday 0/5
Down 2-3% as I write this.
http://finance.yahoo.com/

Germany looking very bad. They probably will not want to bail out Spain & Italy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair =on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225+Interactive#symbol=^N225;range=1y

There is still time to get out. You can tell by the foreign currency market. The flight to safety of the US$ has not begun yet in earnest.

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/forex-rates/

I know a lot of people are expecting high inflation due to what central banks are doing. That will probably happen later in the decade. First we will have general deflation because money is being destroyed faster than it is printed. Add to that higher unemployment and companies will not be able to raise prices. Expect oil to fall as the markets price in a recession, less demand and a stronger dollar.

Here are the US markets futures
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html


Just a reminder - it is beginning in earnest.

cowboy1964
09-22-2011, 05:26
Europe is going to make Lehman Brothers/2008 look like a minor blip. Gold and silver are having a nice pullback, wish I had some bucks to buy some gold Eagles while they're down.

Restless28
09-22-2011, 05:34
Several things going on here...The market wasn't impressed with the Bernank, China's manufacturing contracted for the 3rd month in a row, fake deficit supercongress still to meet and gridlock, unemployment stagnant, and Europe troubles.

The global economy falls while the ruling class drinks champagne.

donovan655
09-22-2011, 06:03
The global economy falls while the ruling class drinks champagne.


More and more people are finally waking up to this.

Dexters
09-30-2011, 21:03
I think the stock market decline will accelerate down from here. There will be up days but the trend is down.

PlasticGuy
10-01-2011, 15:43
Inflation is killing the dollar. Precious metals are sky high. Stocks are low. Of course they can get lower, and may well do so for the next couple years. They will go back up eventually. My investment strategy has been to shift more money into stocks. I'm working on the "buy low" part of the "buy low, sell high" part of the strategy. I'll continue to buy low as long as the market stays down. Some see it as a disaster. I see it as an opportunity. Real estate too, for that matter.

Preservation of wealth? Screw that. This is the perfect opportunity to create a huge retirement fund for those with some vision.

cowboy1964
10-01-2011, 18:15
The debt commission has a deadline of Nov. 23 and it's pretty obvious nothing of significance is going to get done. Between that and the Europe mess the next few months are going to be even more dicey that what we've seeing so far.

JDSTG58
10-12-2011, 14:27
........

cowboy1964
10-12-2011, 16:40
You said it.... This has been the best couple of months for trading that Ive ever had. The panic just keeps feeding me with new opportunities. My retirement account is up over 30% in the last 60 days.

I'm doing fairly well too with trades of a few days to a week. I'm leery of holding stocks longer than that right now as I expect Greece to hit the fan soon (among other things).

Google is one my faves to trade right now. It's enjoying bounces from just under 500 to 550 every few weeks it seems.

Cavalry Doc
10-12-2011, 16:48
I think if anyone could accurately predict what the stock market was going to do they wouldn't be posting here on glocktalk...

Just like all the psychics that have hit the lottery a dozen or more times.

certifiedfunds
10-12-2011, 17:01
Inflation is killing the dollar. Precious metals are sky high. Stocks are low. Of course they can get lower, and may well do so for the next couple years. They will go back up eventually. My investment strategy has been to shift more money into stocks. I'm working on the "buy low" part of the "buy low, sell high" part of the strategy. I'll continue to buy low as long as the market stays down. Some see it as a disaster. I see it as an opportunity. Real estate too, for that matter.

Preservation of wealth? Screw that. This is the perfect opportunity to create a huge retirement fund for those with some vision.

Before it is all over, Dow-Gold ratio of 1

RED64CJ5
10-12-2011, 19:04
Before it is all over, Dow-Gold ratio of 1

aint no way im gonna sell my gold teef

certifiedfunds
10-12-2011, 19:38
aint no way im gonna sell my gold teef

You don't have to. The government will eventually have your estate declare them upon your death and they will be taxed appropriately.

UneasyRider
10-13-2011, 06:29
Question for you: If we all expect a financial collapse based on a euro/dollar fall and a dramatic increase in the printing of money causing hyperinflation, why would the stock market go down when everything else is rising in price?

For example if Kellog makes cerial and the price of cereal increases from $3 per box to $30 per box what happens to there stock value?

crimsonaudio
10-13-2011, 07:12
Question for you: If we all expect a financial collapse based on a euro/dollar fall and a dramatic increase in the printing of money causing hyperinflation, why would the stock market go down when everything else is rising in price?

For example if Kellog makes cerial and the price of cereal increases from $3 per box to $30 per box what happens to there stock value?

Depends on their profits and the percentage of their shareholders who can afford to continue investing.

Dexters
10-13-2011, 07:21
Question for you: If we all expect a financial collapse based on a euro/dollar fall and a dramatic increase in the printing of money causing hyperinflation,



We all are not expecting "a financial collapse based on a euro/dollar fall and a dramatic increase in the printing of money causing hyperinflation, why would the stock market go down when everything else is rising in price? "

Currently, debt instruments are being distroyed faster than central banks can 'print money'. So, there is more deflationary pressure on overall prices.

After this pressure subsides and economies begin to pick up then inflation should be able to pick up.


For example if Kellog makes cerial and the price of cereal increases from $3 per box to $30 per box what happens to there stock value?

To answer your question - the stock prices would fall if people can not afford to purchase their products because wages do not keep up with inflation - which they usually don't.

certifiedfunds
10-13-2011, 07:38
Question for you: If we all expect a financial collapse based on a euro/dollar fall and a dramatic increase in the printing of money causing hyperinflation, why would the stock market go down when everything else is rising in price?

For example if Kellog makes cerial and the price of cereal increases from $3 per box to $30 per box what happens to there stock value?

Inflation should lift the market but not in real terms.

UneasyRider
10-13-2011, 08:55
Inflation should lift the market but not in real terms.

Yes Grasshopper this is how I see things too, as does history.

If Kellogs sales increase by 10 times and they are still making a profit because they would stop making cereal if they were not, then their market cap would be about 10 times higher too. For those who stay in business.

certifiedfunds
10-13-2011, 08:58
Yes Grasshopper this is how I see things too, as does history.

If Kellogs sales increase by 10 times and they are still making a profit because they would stop making cereal if they were not, then their market cap would be about 10 times higher too. For those who stay in business.

more money and simultaneous decline in the American standard of living

UneasyRider
10-13-2011, 09:10
more money and simultaneous decline in the American standard of living

Yes, unfortunately our income probably would not be able to compete with the 10 times increase in prices would it? I think that the number would be about 2 or 3 times increase in wages for 10 times increase in prices. In other words, we are screwed if we don't hold on to our purchasing power somehow, any ideas? :wavey:

cowboy1964
10-13-2011, 09:15
This is why you have some PMs.

My #1 financial concern is what will happen to my 401k if the dollar is destroyed. Even if it's sitting 100% in cash and not stocks or mutual funds, if the dollar is destroyed then my 401k is destroyed. If and when the time comes I will pull the funds, take the tax hit, and convert it all to PMs. It may be too late though if it becomes that obvious that that needs to be done.

Dexters
10-13-2011, 09:46
Inflation should lift the market but not in real terms.

It realy depends upon the amount of inflation - around 3 +/-% stocks should increase in real terms.

It is questionable after that point.
Take a look at the '70s. Stocks didn't increase in real or inflated terms. Stocks didn't take off until '84 after inflation was tamed.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html

Dexters
10-13-2011, 09:57
This is why you have some PMs.

My #1 financial concern is what will happen to my 401k if the dollar is destroyed. Even if it's sitting 100% in cash and not stocks or mutual funds, if the dollar is destroyed then my 401k is destroyed. If and when the time comes I will pull the funds, take the tax hit, and convert it all to PMs. It may be too late though if it becomes that obvious that that needs to be done.

PMs are not the only option - take a look at gold mining stocks and the Australian dollar or Swiss Franc.

cowboy1964
10-13-2011, 10:22
I've thought about other currencies but frankly I figure if the U.S. dollar goes down then probably everyone else will too. No fiat currency will be safe. Hard assets will be the thing to own (real estate, commodities, etc).

Dexters
10-13-2011, 11:49
I've thought about other currencies but frankly I figure if the U.S. dollar goes down then probably everyone else will too. No fiat currency will be safe. Hard assets will be the thing to own (real estate, commodities, etc).

Money will go someplace - look at what happened recently - just before the US$ got strong. Money went to the Swiss Franc.

The Australian $ is a commodity play - it is basically a currency backed by resources also, its central bank is not shy to raise rates.

racerford
10-13-2011, 12:51
I've thought about other currencies but frankly I figure if the U.S. dollar goes down then probably everyone else will too. No fiat currency will be safe. Hard assets will be the thing to own (real estate, commodities, etc).

Every significant currency is a fiat currency. I have not found one that is PM or commodity based.

Lone Kimono
10-13-2011, 13:17
I'm thinking of getting back in the market as well. I miss the dividends MO and PM paid.

cowboy1964
10-13-2011, 20:06
Every significant currency is a fiat currency. I have not found one that is PM or commodity based.

That's my point. No currency is "safe" ultimately. It's just degree of risk at this point.

Dexters
11-09-2011, 12:37
I think the stock market will be going down strong into late Sept/early Oct, then a weak rebound and then continue down until mid 2012.

Take a look at foreign stock markets today - Monday 0/5
Down 2-3% as I write this.
http://finance.yahoo.com/

Germany looking very bad. They probably will not want to bail out Spain & Italy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair =on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225+Interactive#symbol=^N225;range=1y

There is still time to get out. You can tell by the foreign currency market. The flight to safety of the US$ has not begun yet in earnest.

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/forex-rates/

I know a lot of people are expecting high inflation due to what central banks are doing. That will probably happen later in the decade. First we will have general deflation because money is being destroyed faster than it is printed. Add to that higher unemployment and companies will not be able to raise prices. Expect oil to fall as the markets price in a recession, less demand and a stronger dollar.

Here are the US markets futures
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html

So far it it playing out.