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09-26-2011, 19:30
BBC Speechless As Trader Tells Truth: "The Collapse Is Coming..." (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqN3amj6AcE)

I don't usually pay attention to these kind of interviews, but this BBC clip from Sept 26, 2011 caught my attention. Thoughts? :shocked:

Dexters
09-26-2011, 19:41
He's correct.

Ruggles
09-26-2011, 19:43
BBC Speechless As Trader Tells Truth: "The Collapse Is Coming..." (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqN3amj6AcE)

I don't usually pay attention to these kind of interviews, but this BBC clip from Sept 26, 2011 caught my attention. Thoughts? :shocked:

No offense but I have shoes older than that guy, I can not take his dire predictions with too much seriousness :dunno: The European economy has been rolling along for 100s and 100s of years, thru some pretty bad times ( much worse than this....) no less. I think it will weather this as well. Since this is all "electronic and paper debt" it can be moved and shuffled around at will. Nobody wins in a collapse so it will not be allowed to occur.

magpie maniac
09-26-2011, 19:43
I saw this guy's interview earlier. He is nothing but a day trader and really shouldn't be considered a reputable source for global macroeconomic trends. Could everything collapse tomorrow? Of course they could and they just might if idiots like Alessio Rastani run around spreading their self-fulfilling prophecies and urge people to cash out of equities. Unless you're retiring within the next four or five years, now is no time to get super conservative.

His blog entry on the 26th was entitled "Why I pray for another recession." Don't make this guy rich by falling for his Chicken Little routine.

Dexters
09-26-2011, 19:52
No offense but I have shoes older than that guy, I can not take his dire predictions with too much seriousness :dunno: The European economy has been rolling along for 100s and 100s of years, thru some pretty bad times ( much worse than this....) no less. I think it will weather this as well. Since this is all "electronic and paper debt" it can be moved and shuffled around at will. Nobody wins in a collapse so it will not be allowed to occur.

Yea, a couple of world wars and that German hyperinflation weren't that bad.

LongGun1
09-26-2011, 20:01
BBC Speechless As Trader Tells Truth: "The Collapse Is Coming..." (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqN3amj6AcE)

I don't usually pay attention to these kind of interviews, but this BBC clip from Sept 26, 2011 caught my attention. Thoughts? :shocked:


Personally....my feelings are the sub-prime crisis was just a visible reminder of systemic issues in the financial markets..

(that includes astronomical civilian & governmental debt)

..& there will likely be more....

A.."There will be blood"... kind of thing..

..hopefully only figuratively! :whistling:




My hedge is continually working to be more self-sufficient..

..have a balance of assets in 'tangibles' & knowledge base to that end..

..and have a "safety net" large enough to be self-supporting if inflation were to skyrocket..

..or worse case....the house of cards were to suddenly collapse! :shocked:




All that being said..

..economic issues is one of my top 5 "root causes"..

.. for a potential future collapse of civil society in my lifetime..IMO!







YMMV

cowboy1964
09-26-2011, 20:03
Yeah, the world's finances are in TERRIFIC shape :whistling:

Ruggles
09-26-2011, 20:04
Yea, a couple of world wars and that German hyperinflation weren't that bad.

And did it ever collapse? No. Europe was doing well economically before 1914 and economic issue were not a major causes of hostilities in 1939 either.

Hyperinflation only occurred in Germany after the greatest war in history. Which they lost BTW, go figure :)

If there is a continental wide war in Europe anytime soon I might have to reconsider. :tongueout:

Wet Dog
09-26-2011, 20:08
No offense but I have shoes older than that guy, I can not take his dire predictions with too much seriousness :dunno: The European economy has been rolling along for 100s and 100s of years, thru some pretty bad times ( much worse than this....) no less. I think it will weather this as well. Since this is all "electronic and paper debt" it can be moved and shuffled around at will. Nobody wins in a collapse so it will not be allowed to occur.

Simply not true.

There have been many collapses in the European economies in the last century. That would be like saying ' The European nations have been at peace for hundreds and hundreds of years...' totally discounts a couple of World Wars, a few civil wars, terrorism, genocide, state induced famine (Ukraine). Mankind survived. Many currencies did not.

Ruggles
09-26-2011, 20:18
Simply not true.

There have been many collapses in the European economies in the last century. That would be like saying ' The European nations have been at peace for hundreds and hundreds of years...' totally discounts a couple of World Wars, a few civil wars, terrorism, genocide, state induced famine (Ukraine). Mankind survived. Many currencies did not.

I read the OP "The collapse is coming" as meaning the collapse of the European economy. The used car salesman on the video implied the same. IMO that is not going to occur.

SilverCity
09-26-2011, 21:36
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_sovereign_debt_crisis

Yeah the good ole Eurozone is solid as Gibraltar...

Good thing U.S. banks and hedge funds are heavily invested in Europe...

SC

Dexters
09-27-2011, 06:46
And did it ever collapse? No. Europe was doing well economically before 1914 and economic issue were not a major causes of hostilities in 1939 either.

Hyperinflation only occurred in Germany after the greatest war in history. Which they lost BTW, go figure :)

If there is a continental wide war in Europe anytime soon I might have to reconsider. :tongueout:

The guy in the video wasn't saying that the people in Europe would have a war or disappear off the face of the earth.

Bilbo Bagins
09-27-2011, 07:14
No offense but I have shoes older than that guy, I can not take his dire predictions with too much seriousness :dunno: The European economy has been rolling along for 100s and 100s of years, thru some pretty bad times ( much worse than this....) no less. I think it will weather this as well. Since this is all "electronic and paper debt" it can be moved and shuffled around at will. Nobody wins in a collapse so it will not be allowed to occur.

That reminds me, I need to buy new dress shoes.

This economic collapse has been coming for over 3 years now. Glenn Beck has come on gone since then. Seriously guys, just think about it.

People are either too young or simply forget how bad economically we were in the early 90's the early 80's and through most of the 70's. Also lets not forget the lost decade in Japan and let's not forget the hot and very cold economy of europe, some of the reasons why we are here is our great-grandparents fled economic hardships in europe for a better life in America. Is today's economic downturn "the Big One"? Not by a long shot. 78 to 83 was MUCH worse.

Also people need to understand WHO these pundits are. You seem to hear a lot of doom and gloom from gold brokers and hedge fund guys. These people stand to make a boatload of money off of some panic in the public.

Should you worry, yes. Should you invest differently, maybe, but do your research. Remember buy low, sell high, if someone is telling you to buy high because the end is near, make sure he is not just saying that to line his pockets.

barbedwiresmile
09-27-2011, 07:51
All other points and the original topic aside, I just wanted to chime in on this:

And did it ever collapse? No. Europe was doing well economically before 1914 and economic issue were not a major causes of hostilities in 1939 either.


Factually this is incorrect. Economic issues were the entirety of what led up to the 'hostilities' you refer to. Virtually all wars are economic in nature. The patriotic and security issues are just sales (how else do entities such as states convince hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of her young men to hurl themselves at each other?). But specific to the time period you refer to, rarely do we see such a clear-cut case of economic drivers of militarism and war.

The state is a funny thing, really. It continues to endure despite its various inefficiencies and failings. It continues to incite passions and patriotism, even as the modern Total State descends into the blatant kleptocracy that proceeds bankruptcy. And, even as the overlords pillage and the enforcers incrementally ratchet up the violence proportionate to the complexity of the tax and regulatory regimes, the majority still has emotional attachment to the name and the flag of their given state. There seems to be some quaint notion of "government" operating along some philosophy of 'common good' when, in reality, what so many still refer to as "government" is nothing more than a racket.

ArmoryDoc
09-27-2011, 07:56
I'm a little more optimistic than that guy is. I'm "positive" it's coming. :)

bdcochran
09-27-2011, 08:07
Nothing new here for most people or myself. "Prepare" and "have a plan" are great advice. My crystal ball has gone down and I haven't figured out how to repair the same.

The Graduate - "The word is 'plastics'".

For my generation the word was "become a doctor". Yep. And the guys who followed that advice have a shortened life span, work for a set fee under HMO plans, and are no longer revered as gods.

What happened to the jobs like keypunch operator, bank computer software programmer, gas station attendant? All gone. Not to China, however.

A relative saw the house prices tank in the depression. He had a plan. He would never buy a house. Lived in the same rental unit for the next 60 years. The rent went from $5 a month to over $2000. Another uncle built his house in 1928 and lived to be 97. His house was paid off 30 years before he died. He had a plan too.

Darn, but I can't get the crystal ball working again.

ArmoryDoc
09-27-2011, 08:10
Get rid of the "plastic" one and get a real glass ball. ;)

bdcochran
09-27-2011, 08:11
Great!

Wet Dog
09-27-2011, 08:37
Except for interest rates and perhaps gas prices (relative to wages) I don't recall how 78-83 was worse. Revolving debt interest rates a mighty high now and secured debt loans very tough to come by these days.

Being in the construction industry this is much worse than the 78-83 or the 91-94' or the 2001-2003 recessions. Residential is virtually at a halt and unemployment is over 40%. One of my suppliers (the biggest I deal with) has lost 75% of their accounts due to companies going out of business. You can buy an existing home here for much less than you can build one. Wages have fallen back to what I was getting in the 70's and 80's.

Four years ago I was turning down work. Now I'm scrambling. I used to be able to hire trade guys but now I just put on the tools and do it myself - framing, siding, roofing, paint, cabinets, interior finish, hardwood floors.... I'm not sure what the future holds but I'm not turning down any paying jobs now. I thought I was done slamming 16d nails into 2x's back in my early thirties. It really sucks now being in my fifties and trying to make a living at it.

Housing has always lead the way out of recession. I don't see that happening anytime soon.

As for Europe, it looks like the EU is in trouble. Greece will no doubt default on at least part of its debt. Ireland will too. How many more economies will get pulled down with them now that they are all linked together? I'm guessing at least Spain and Portugal too and maybe even Italy. Can the EU stand that kind of hit? Probably not. Will the Euro survive? It won't be easy and if the Euro collapses what will happen to the dollar? Tough times ahead.

I'm guessing further devaluation of the Dollar (inflation) and higher interest rates are not that far off here, maybe even before the next election.

Interesting times. It'll probably play out slow, until it doesn't...

Glock30Eric
09-27-2011, 08:38
BBC Speechless As Trader Tells Truth: "The Collapse Is Coming..." (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqN3amj6AcE)

I don't usually pay attention to these kind of interviews, but this BBC clip from Sept 26, 2011 caught my attention. Thoughts? :shocked:


Finally, you have opened your eyes. There are more than that. You'll need dig it deeper.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/ is good place for you to start digging deep with the situations in the world.

pugman
09-27-2011, 09:10
We all have to realize there is a difference between a collaspe and a change in our lifestyle albeit drastic.

By most accounts, the U.S Federal government does not have a plan how to deal with the national debt, the unfunded liabilities it has promised and due in the next 30 years or the eventual severe increase in taxes or decrease in benefits it will need to contend with. This increase or decrease will need to be somewhere in the 60-105% range. Only about 20% of the fed's budget is discretionary.

Remember the debt ceiling increase the clowns in Congress and Obama agreed to? Most of the $4 trillion dollars in spending cuts don't happen until the late part of this decade-news flash: Obama and probably a good number of these representatives won't be in office to deal with it...just kicking the can and blame down the road.

When friends of the more liberal persuasion and I discuss this I ask the simple question: at what point is the advertised national debt too much? $20 trillion....$30...about about $50? Second news flash: at $50 trillion dollars and the current 9% of expenditures the fed uses to make the mandatory payment if they dropped the rate on the entire balance to 1% and put this out for 50 years the monthly payment is 50% of the annual payment they currently make of $194 billion. The annual payments would exceed 60% of current income. In other words its simply unpayable based on current income levels which leads us to a potential tax increase.

If taxes tomorrow on the rich increased 60%-how do you think this would go over? What if middle class taxes went up 20%. Can you imagine if they actually discussed taxing the poor?

What if tomorrow Congress said instead of a cost of living increase, it would cut social security benefits by 60%? Wisconsin just had a news story yesterday about how its cutting $500 million from its Medicaid budget.

If the federal government has taught me anything-its they never have a plan other than cutting budgets or increasing taxes.

All this isn't speculation...or tinfoil hat consiprarcy theory....its math plan and simple.

quake
09-27-2011, 09:20
...People are either too young are simply forget how bad this were economically in the early 90's the early 80's and through most of the 70's. Also lets not forget the lost decade in Japan and let's not forget the hot and very cold economy of europe, some of the reasons why we are here is our great-grandparents fled economic hardships in europe for a better life in America. Is today's economic downturn "the Big One"? Not by a long shot. 78 to 83 was MUCH worse.

Also people need to understand WHO these pundits are. You seem to hear a lot of doom and gloom from gold brokers and hedge fund guys. These people stand to make a boatload of money off of some panic in the public.

Should you worry, yes. Should you invest differently, maybe, but do your research. Remember buy low, sell high, if someone is telling you to buy high because the end is near, make sure he is not just saying that to line his pockets.
I'm part with you & part not on this. I actually agree about the history, especially the 70's & 80's. Surely a lot of people here are old enough to remember those times; but it seems like I may be wrong on that. I also think this is a bad time to start buying PM's. If you want to as a 'hedge', then I don't think it's sinful or anything, but typically it's a bad idea to do what the herd is doing, and right now, the herd is PM-crazy. I talked one lady who works for us into checking out selling some old jewelry that had no sentimental value for her and which she no longer wore. She took some down to a local jeweler we know and came back with over $18K in cash, which she can now use for real expenses. Seems like a good time (for most people) to be selling PM's rather than buying. If you have a bunch and don't need cash, then it probably can be a valid form of inflation insurance; but I keep going back to the "don't do what the herd is doing" principle that usually works out well.

On the other side of the coin, the things that concern me hugely is our debt and the ever-increasing commitments that are only sustainable by ever-increasing levels of debt. Not only is our debt hugely "up" as a number, it's also hugely up as a percent of our income (ie, GDP). In the Carter years, our debt was something like 30-35% of gdp, whereas it's currently at something like 90% of gdp. Much like a family that increases its debt from 35% of their income up to 90% of their income; that's a bad thing unless that debt is for a specific investment that has a specific purpose and has an attached (and specific) plan for repayment. I'm personally in that boat right now actually. We have a substantial business debt currently, as we bought a company around three years ago, and our debt technically actually is greater than 100% of our income right now. But we have - and stick to - a specific plan for paying down of that debt (with less than 2 1/2 years to go now), and we religiously stick to that pay-down plan even in this economy, which isn't always easy.

There are a couple of "very bad things" in our economic situation imo. First is that the fedgov not only refuses to implement a plan to pay down the debt, they're still actively increasing the debt. I don't expect china to intentionally crash us (as some seem to); since doing so would hurt themselves as well. But they could very easily use that position of bargaining strength to influence things even domestically (especially with the kind of administration we currently have), and that's a weakness on our end.

Second very bad thing is that not only are we failing to pay off the debt, and actually increasing that debt, we're intentionally reducing our 'income' at the same time; becoming more dependent on buying other nations' goods and less productive of our own.

One thing I do agree with Obama on, is when he called our current debt levels "unsustainable". Of course, rather than address that problem he's admitted, he - and many others in govt - are still actively working to increase the debt load to even greater levels.

quake
09-27-2011, 09:38
Except for interest rates and perhaps gas prices (relative to wages) I don't recall how 78-83 was worse. Revolving debt interest rates a mighty high now and secured debt loans very tough to come by these days.

Being in the construction industry this is much worse than the 78-83 or the 91-94' or the 2001-2003 recessions. Residential is virtually at a halt and unemployment is over 40%. One of my suppliers (the biggest I deal with) has lost 75% of their accounts due to companies going out of business. You can buy an existing home here for much less than you can build one. Wages have fallen back to what I was getting in the 70's and 80's.

Four years ago I was turning down work. Now I'm scrambling. I used to be able to hire trade guys but now I just put on the tools and do it myself - framing, siding, roofing, paint, cabinets, interior finish, hardwood floors.... I'm not sure what the future holds but I'm not turning down any paying jobs now. I thought I was done slamming 16d nails into 2x's back in my early thirties. It really sucks now being in my fifties and trying to make a living at it.

Housing has always lead the way out of recession. I don't see that happening anytime soon.

As for Europe, it looks like the EU is in trouble. Greece will no doubt default on at least part of its debt. Ireland will too. How many more economies will get pulled down with them now that they are all linked together? I'm guessing at least Spain and Portugal too and maybe even Italy. Can the EU stand that kind of hit? Probably not. Will the Euro survive? It won't be easy and if the Euro collapses what will happen to the dollar? Tough times ahead.

I'm guessing further devaluation of the Dollar (inflation) and higher interest rates are not that far off here, maybe even before the next election.

Interesting times. It'll probably play out slow, until it doesn't...

Main difference imo between now & the late 70's / early 80's, was that back then there was economic activity, but everything just got more expensive and wages didn't keep up. Now, the activity is slowing (agree completely on the housing industry btw, we see the same thing in our work), and prices are up on consumables that you HAVE to buy (just possibly up less sharply than back then); things like groceries, gas, etc - things that aren't stocked-up on by most people.

Basically, back then we had a bunch of activity and a bunch of rising prices. Nowadays, we have reduced activity and rising prices. Then again, unemployment back then peaked right about where we are now; and then started dropping significantly, so maybe we'll see the same pattern again now. Personally, I think that had a lot to do with change in administrations (Carter to Reagan) along with the associated change in consumer- and business-confidence, but no way I can prove that. All I can say is "Give us something - another Reagan or another something - to get us out of the Carter-II that we have in office now".

marlinfan
09-27-2011, 11:19
eh, that guy in the vid looks like a used car salesman. I think the men of today would collectively **** their pants if anything bad actually did happen, like WWII or the civil war. We've still got beer, big screens, and football. No need to get a boner every time some kid on tv says it's all going to come crashing down.

Wet Dog
09-27-2011, 16:57
Back then America made stuff - Living wage jobs. Now there are many trades that even at journeyman level skill, guys don't make enough to buy a house.

For a perspective that some might have trouble accepting, I recommend watching Chris Martensen's Crash Course. http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

bdcochran
09-27-2011, 17:42
HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES

Homeownership in America was not above 50% until 1950. My late wife was raised in the 1950s. For the first 7 years she, her parents and her mother's parents lived in the same house. Then they bought separate houses. The parents and grandparents went back to living together some time in the 1980s. Then the parents lived with my brother-in-law's family.

The concept of the nuclear family is associated with the homeownership dream. Collapse coming? The three children with their 3 spouses and 6 children moved back in with their parents across the street for a few years. Now it is down to the two parents, child and spouse and two grandchildren and a couple of foreign students.

The myth is that people have largely owned their own homes, particularly in the olden days. When you google, you can get historical housing statistics by state.

TangoFoxtrot
09-28-2011, 04:35
Cash is king!........ When its not..... We are all in serious S#*T!

donovan655
09-29-2011, 06:00
Marginalize this guy all you want:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/step-aside-bbc-trader-head-unicredit-securities-predicts-imminent-end-eurozone-and-global-finan