Your Economic Triggers for making "Final Preps" [Archive] - Glock Talk

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UneasyRider
02-05-2012, 09:42
A good many of us are concerned about the currency and the economy looking for signs of change that could indicate the begining of a currency devaluation. This thread is for those folks (me) and no hard feelings to anyone who does not see the economy as a survival threat, but you might want to ignore this discussion.

My economic indicators that I watch for are:

1) Inflation rate.
2) GDP
3) Yearly budget deficit.
4) How much money we are printing.
5) Employment.

These are the canary in the coal mine to me, what do YOU look at as an indicator that you should start making imminent preparations?

Examples would be if I see the monthly inflation rate (not annualized) go over 3 percent I will go all out.

Or if employment takes a really hard dip (not interested in the unemployment rate) by 3 million people or more in a year. I am all in, thus the last couple of years of extreme prepping for me.

http://goldwingusa.com/Misc/Employment.gif

http://goldwingusa.com/Misc/Employment01.jpg

JK-linux
02-05-2012, 11:23
Are you talking about financial indicators that it's time for "final preps" as related to Mad Max, or "final preps" for a 10 year depression with a functioning government, intact military, 20% effective unemployment, big companies and millionaires and politicians still basically in control?

TangoFoxtrot
02-05-2012, 11:29
As far as I'm concerned everyday in the U.S is tripping my survival triggers. The unemployment rate, U.S. dollar value, illegal's crossing the border, crime, local government cutbacks like police protection, Overseas events and economy and so on. My outlook is live life as best as possible and just be prepared as best as you can. NEVER EVER depend on government to defend or feed you. We only pay taxes to avoid jail. ...nothing else!

UneasyRider
02-05-2012, 11:42
Are you talking about financial indicators that it's time for "final preps" as related to Mad Max, or "final preps" for a 10 year depression with a functioning government, intact military, 20% effective unemployment, big companies and millionaires and politicians still basically in control?

The 10 year great depression is what's on my mind, I am not a Mad Max scenario survivor.

Ruble Noon
02-05-2012, 12:32
Retirement Savings: Will $4 Million Be Enough?



http://finance.yahoo.com/news/retirement-savings-4-million-enough-195700684.html

G29Reload
02-05-2012, 14:02
If it were a 20 min warning nuke deal, I would be getting as much extra water, firewood and food to the basement as possible.

If I were out and about when it was announced, i'd try to make for home or as close as I could get to it.

In the best of situations, when it happens, I've just had a dental appointment, clean bill of health from my annual physical, just had a haircut, freshly showered and dressed, all my clothes are freshly folded and stacked out of the dryer, the dishwasher just finished running, just bought a months green veggies and topped off the pantry, both vehicles fully gassed and all the mower jugs filled with high test and the propane stocks of various kinds are all full and I have enough time to fill the tub with fresh water. I'm tuned to the radio and waiting for damage reports….

Anything the opposite of the above can work against me to the extent it isnt where I need it to be and subtracts from my survivability or comfort/safety.

The financial side of it? The actions and counter actions of people, banks and governments are enough to stretch the pain out to an agonizingly long descent into argentina-like chaos. It be more the like frog and boiling water…won't happen, we'd jump out. Instead, we'll be sitting in cold water as it warms and never notice till its too late…well I will, and most folks here will, but the MTV American Idol -numbed types who still think BHO is handsome and cool and can't even balance their checkbooks won't notice a thing, even after its happened. They'll just be screwed.

Lone Kimono
02-05-2012, 15:16
Great idea for a topic! Outside of the obvious EMP kind of event I've wondered when I would empty the accounts and hit the stores for the last time.

cowboy1964
02-05-2012, 18:06
Annualized inflation of 36%?? My trigger would be more like 10%. A one-month spike of 3% or something wouldn't be that worrisome, but a 2% per month for 4 months would. We're talking across-the-board inflation, not energy-only inflation or something.

What does it mean you will be "all in"? You be putting every dollar you make into preps? You will be cashing out your IRA/401k? Selling your house and moving to the mountains?

UneasyRider
02-05-2012, 18:56
Annualized inflation of 36%?? My trigger would be more like 10%. A one-month spike of 3% or something wouldn't be that worrisome, but a 2% per month for 4 months would. We're talking across-the-board inflation, not energy-only inflation or something.

What does it mean you will be "all in"? You be putting every dollar you make into preps? You will be cashing out your IRA/401k? Selling your house and moving to the mountains?

All in for me is if I think that we need to have it we buy it.

Glocktastic
02-05-2012, 19:35
I agree with Tango Foxtrot that there are alarm bells every day.

Any time the Dow drops 500+, any money in the bank comes out and I top off supplies as best as I'm able.

wildcat455
02-05-2012, 19:41
UneasyRider, I think by your definition, if I understand it correctly, I am already "All In" .

Every bit of money I make above my living expenses goes to Preps right now. (I DO allow myself a Redbox movie once a week...) I may also be a little bit behind most here in financial status and preps, so I can't really afford to wait until the 11th hour.

For me, it is "Imminent" right now. This is already a bullet we cannot dodge. It IS going to happen. The "When" doesn't matter, if you think about it... Unless of course you LIKE (or can afford) playing Russian Roulette.

By my definition, the LAST STAGE of prep for me comes when I see or feel it is UNSAFE (As in "Fear for my life".) for me to continue working. At that point, ready or not, I request a leave of absence, go home, and hunker down!

God help us all WHEN it comes to that.

I do not have any investments to cash in. Already done.
I do not have any large sums of cash in my pillowcase. Already spent. (On preps)
I have no "Wealth" to protect with Precious Metal.

Because of what I see coming, I have accepted the fact that God willing, I will work until the day I die. (No retirement.)

UneasyRider
02-05-2012, 19:47
UneasyRider, I think by your definition, if I understand it correctly, I am already "All In" .

Every bit of money I make above my living expenses goes to Preps right now. (I DO allow myself a Redbox movie once a week...) I may also be a little bit behind most here in financial status and preps, so I can't really afford to wait until the 11th hour.

For me, it is "Imminent" right now. This is already a bullet we cannot dodge. It IS going to happen. The "When" doesn't matter, if you think about it... Unless of course you LIKE (or can afford) playing Russian Roulette.

By my definition, the LAST STAGE of prep for me comes when I see or feel it is UNSAFE (As in "Fear for my life".) for me to continue working. At that point, ready or not, I request a leave of absence, go home, and hunker down!

God help us all WHEN it comes to that.

I do not have any investments to cash in. Already done.
I do not have any large sums of cash in my pillowcase. Already spent. (On preps)
I have no "Wealth" to protect with Precious Metal.

Because of what I see coming, I have accepted the fact that God willing, I will work until the day I die. (No retirement.)

I am on the same page with the exception that my wife has a nice government retirement and 403B plan which I personally think will be worthless when the day comes.

You can see from the employment charts that we have not created a job in this country for more than a decade and that just won't fly.

TangoFoxtrot
02-05-2012, 23:49
I agree with Tango Foxtrot that there are alarm bells every day.

Any time the Dow drops 500+, any money in the bank comes out and I top off supplies as best as I'm able.


I already did! I withdrew all my cash out of the bank (savings) and put it in a safe place ( I distrust banks) I don't care about accumulating interest on it, I have other interest bearing accounts and stocks for retirement. My supplies are maxed out for the amount of storage I have. I just have to rotate when posssible. So all I have to do is sit back and enjoy life. I don't constantly dwell on this. Life is too short.

Dexters
02-06-2012, 06:48
My economic indicators that I watch for are:

1) Inflation rate.
2) GDP
3) Yearly budget deficit.
4) How much money we are printing.
5) Employment.



Excellent post and topic.

I'd suggest you add a deflation trigger also - like the Russell 2000 index.

I think deflation will happen before inflation.

The key point is that money is being destroyed. Look at Greece and other debtor countries - those bonds are money to the people who hold the bond. When Greece defaults or pays less than market rate interest on a debt deal - money is destroyed - poof! That slows down economic activity because the bond and the interest has disappeared.

Although central banks are printing money, they can not create it fast enough for all that is being destroyed by defaults and slower economic activity.

kirgi08
02-06-2012, 10:11
When the EBT cards stop working.'08. :scared:

wildcat455
02-06-2012, 11:24
For some weird reason, I think they will actually stop taking cash before they stop taking EBT. LMAO!

arclight610
02-06-2012, 11:54
UneasyRider, I think by your definition, if I understand it correctly, I am already "All In" .

Every bit of money I make above my living expenses goes to Preps right now. (I DO allow myself a Redbox movie once a week...) I may also be a little bit behind most here in financial status and preps, so I can't really afford to wait until the 11th hour.

For me, it is "Imminent" right now. This is already a bullet we cannot dodge. It IS going to happen. The "When" doesn't matter, if you think about it... Unless of course you LIKE (or can afford) playing Russian Roulette.

By my definition, the LAST STAGE of prep for me comes when I see or feel it is UNSAFE (As in "Fear for my life".) for me to continue working. At that point, ready or not, I request a leave of absence, go home, and hunker down!

God help us all WHEN it comes to that.

I do not have any investments to cash in. Already done.
I do not have any large sums of cash in my pillowcase. Already spent. (On preps)
I have no "Wealth" to protect with Precious Metal.

Because of what I see coming, I have accepted the fact that God willing, I will work until the day I die. (No retirement.)

You need to have a little bit of fun too. If the SHTF does happen, you want to be able to look back at good memories.

DoctaGlockta
02-06-2012, 12:10
When the EBT cards stop working.'08. :scared:This +1

kirgi08
02-06-2012, 12:22
For some weird reason, I think they will actually stop taking cash before they stop taking EBT. LMAO!

It's reality when food stamps don't work.Cash always works.'08.

wildcat455
02-06-2012, 21:41
It's reality when food stamps don't work.Cash always works.'08.

It was an attempt at humor. The Gov ensuring the entitlement crowd gets fed.

Guess it wasn't too funny....

I'll stick to my "Day job".

Lone Kimono
02-07-2012, 00:11
You need to have a little bit of fun too. If the SHTF does happen, you want to be able to look back at good memories.
This^^^

As bad as things are we will probably look back on them as the good days.

kirgi08
02-07-2012, 09:26
It's reality when food stamps don't work.Cash always works.'08.

It was an attempt at humor. The Gov ensuring the entitlement crowd gets fed.

Guess it wasn't too funny....

I'll stick to my "Day job".

My above wasn't meant as a slight.It was an observation of the .gov folk bending over backwards ta ensure the support of their voter base.Sometimes I can be a little trite and I do apologize.'08.

wildcat455
02-07-2012, 09:43
LOL! It's ok kirgi. I didn't take your comment that way. I have pretty thick skin.

mgentry
02-07-2012, 10:18
What time span are you prepping for? six months? a year? or more? Do you have seeds for your future food? Do you plan to raise chickens or rabbits or goats or all three? Or are you just storing food? What kind of water storage? What kind of planning are you doing? I would be very interested in your thoughts and plans.

UneasyRider
02-07-2012, 10:31
What time span are you prepping for? six months? a year? or more? Do you have seeds for your future food? Do you plan to raise chickens or rabbits or goats or all three? Or are you just storing food? What kind of water storage? What kind of planning are you doing? I would be very interested in your thoughts and plans.

Personally I plan to survive the change in currency from the old dollar to the new one. I think that 3 years of food will cover it nicely with increases in security for both our home and ourselves like kick proof doors and windows as well as pick proof locks. And of course some financial preps.

I have no doubt that America will be back on it's feet in short order (a year or two) as to food distribution and production or importation of consumer goods.

I look at it in terms of how will the year or two of really tough times go for me and mine. I would like a soft landing if possible for my family, it no longer seems possible for the country... I think we will have a bumpy ride and a hard stop, then start moving forward again. That is the history of nations.

Steff1
02-07-2012, 11:05
My trigger may come in November when BO gets another term

pugman
02-07-2012, 13:46
I'm having a hard time thinking of a trigger as opposed to a slow burn. Triggers make me think of a quick action...and by this definition by the time the action takes place...its already too late.

Even your indicators are slow burns. The federal government will try and maintain control or the sense of it as long as possible. Our own government cannibalized itself and bought up most of its last major debt sale.

I can think of a lot of straws or tipping points which will break Uncle Sam's back.

Long term bonds going to 10% or more

The advertised national debt hitting $20 trillion

The percentage of homes receiving some sort of government benefits going above 55 or 60% (its currently around 48.5%)

Social security annual benefit payouts exceed $1 trillion dollars (for 2011 it was 727 billion)

When the percentage of Americans receiving food stamps hits 25% (currently 1 in 7)

The economic failure of the government is simply the tipping of the scales as more and more americans count on the government for aid in some form (Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, housing assistance, etc). At some point, those paying in and the amount they pay in won't be enough to slow down the accrual of debt or continuing maintaining the debt we currently have.

Currently, the federal government when you take into account everything has a net worth of a negative $70-80 trillion dollars.

If the government cashed out tomorrow the average tax paying citizen would be on the hook for about $670,000 dollars. I would be willing less than 5% of Americans could pay this bill if they were forced to liquidate everything they owned to balance the books and in reality its probably less than 2-3%. Even if you extended it to every American you are still looking at a bill of over $225,000. Can you imagine a family of 4 owing "someone" (the world bank, China, whomever) close to a cool mil.

Maybe my new job will be in the collection business....

IndianaMatt
02-08-2012, 09:49
Are you talking about financial indicators that it's time for "final preps" as related to Mad Max, or "final preps" for a 10 year depression with a functioning government, intact military, 20% effective unemployment, big companies and millionaires and politicians still basically in control?

This scenario you discuss is a thousand times more likely than any total social collapse or breakdown.

UneasyRider
02-08-2012, 09:57
This scenario you discuss is a thousand times more likely than any total social collapse or breakdown.

I think so too, it seems inevitable to me so I am interested in how to tell how far along we are that I can prepare accordingly.

mgentry
02-08-2012, 14:18
When things start to go to heck in a hand basket, do you think gold and silver will be an indicator? Read the book "Survivors." As the price of these two metals starts to rise exponentially - that may be the time to bug out or lock your doors and hunker down. What do you think?

Dexters
02-08-2012, 14:19
I think so too, it seems inevitable to me so I am interested in how to tell how far along we are that I can prepare accordingly.

We aren't at the bottom yet - that is why I expect deflation before any real inflation - over 7% begins

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Secular_Bear_Markets_vs_Secular%20Bull_Markets.htm

Check out the 80 year business cycle - it is close to what I'm thinking
http://www.hsdent.com/Economic_Cycles

So,
deflation/high unemployment - to about 2018
stable - '18-22?
Inflation begins 22?
Fed raises rates - 23/24? - recession
Federal VAT/National Sales Tax starts 25 to try to manage the debt/deficit and appease lenders

UneasyRider
02-08-2012, 15:17
When things start to go to heck in a hand basket, do you think gold and silver will be an indicator? Read the book "Survivors." As the price of these two metals starts to rise exponentially - that may be the time to bug out or lock your doors and hunker down. What do you think?

I don't personally see us ever being in a "Survivors" (I read it) situation in this country unless we see plague, nuclear war or something huge like that. What I do see is a currency devaluation that will disrupt the delivery of goods and services for a period of time as well as big increase in crime.