Most Likely SHTF Scenarios [Archive] - Glock Talk

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DaveG
02-13-2012, 15:49
Oldtimers, newcomers, military/LE crowd, average Joes....

Taking history and the present into account, including the current international climate what do you think the most likely reasons for SHTF will be? I've thought of some below, in which order I think will be most likely.

1. Natural Disaster - On a local scale this is especially true, such as the looting after the record Alabama and Missouri tornadoes last year, but could also be true on a larger scale like we saw after Katrina. There are areas of the U.S. very prone to large earthquakes, that just haven't really "gone off" in a long time such as Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina... and other places. If one of these places really let loose... well, look out. Can you imagine the good people of East St. Louis (#1 city in crime) being turned loose after the city was leveled by a quake? I wish that we could learn from the AMAZING strength and solidarity shown by the Japanese after their quake, but I fear that we as a whole would not behave that way...

2. Economic Collapse - Apparently this can come without warning and happen a whole lot quicker than we think.

3. Civil Political Unrest
4. Solar storm - Knoked out electronics... holly crap
5. Terrorist attack with WMD's - too awful to imagine...
6. Disease outbreak

What do you guys think? Please add others.

DoctaGlockta
02-13-2012, 16:24
7. Mutant Zombie uprising
8. Alien landings

quake
02-13-2012, 16:41
1. Natural Disaster -

2. Economic Collapse - Apparently this can come without warning and happen a whole lot quicker than we think.

3. Civil Political Unrest
4. Solar storm - Knoked out electronics... holly crap
5. Terrorist attack with WMD's - too awful to imagine...
6. Disease outbreak

What do you guys think? Please add others.

On a personal, small-scale level, natural disaster (simple storm damages and outages) would be and has been #1 personally.

On a national scale, I think economic first and social unrest after; not unlikely for those two to be linked as they're seeing now in Greece.

Others possible, but not as likely as those imo.

BigFatDog
02-13-2012, 17:09
1 - We run out of toilet paper.

"Aim small, miss small" ;)

auburn4
02-13-2012, 17:13
Electric Grid goes down for a extended period of time.

smokeross
02-13-2012, 17:53
Rabid Dogs

dp2002813
02-13-2012, 17:58
Resource wars. Oh! wait. That's happening now, sorry.

bdcochran
02-13-2012, 20:34
#1. traffic accident.
I am serious about this.
I am older, drive more slowly. My reaction time is not as good as it was in my younger days. The population density has substantially increased in my area.
There is a new upscale grocery store in West Los Angeles. The lazy ass women drivers refuse to park in the two story parking structure built for the store. No. They stop in the number 3 lane and hangout until a parking space in front of the store comes open. I patiently waited about 3 minutes this afternoon as a young lady sat double parked until she got a space. All during this time, people were swerving and speeding past.

When a traffic light goes out - it is the opportunity for people to freak out, not wait their turns crossing an intersection. Once in a while, there is a wipeout.
I assume that you guys know what a Denny's or a Norm's Restaurant might be. Imagine a restaurant built in the 50s with a surface parking lot. This describes sites across the street from each other. The one that is less than one acre sold for $11 million this week. The other site is up for sale and is 1.5 acres. They sit at the end of a railroad being built on a track through West LA. And, the Cadillac dealership is being converted into a bus terminal, 450 bed hospital and mixed residential/commercial usage.
Now you understand why the no. 1 threat is traffic.

Syclone538
02-13-2012, 21:08
1 Serious economic problems.
2 Slow march to totalitarianism.

If you ask me the odds of either, independently of each other, happening in my life time, I would say almost a certainty, though I'm not sure which one will be first and how that will affect the other.

3 Solar flare EMP. I'm sure it will happen again, but I'd be surprised if it happened in my lifetime.

My post from the thread last month. I feel the same, and can't understand how anyone would put anything other then economic collapse at #1.


edit

Well, BDC makes a good case for traffic accident as most likely personal shtf.

LASTRESORT20
02-13-2012, 21:15
"Economic Collapse - Apparently this can come without warning and happen a whole lot quicker than we think".

Which will lead to:

"Civil Political Unrest"

Shinesintx
02-13-2012, 21:20
Katrina showed us what can happen. Had a buddy who bugged out...the second time he will do it quite differently.

cowboy1964
02-13-2012, 22:41
The #1 thing I prep for is a pandemic. We are overdue.

arclight610
02-13-2012, 22:58
#1 is economic collapse. The signs are all around: increased national debt, entitlement society, unemployment, devaluation of the dollar. Although other things can happen too, at least we can see this one coming.

Bolster
02-14-2012, 00:11
When a traffic light goes out - it is the opportunity for people to freak out, not wait their turns crossing an intersection.

LOL, so true! So true! ANY slight deviation from normal in LA is freak-out time. Watch all the auto accidents at the first light rain of the season. Mild wind and all our power gets knocked out. I swear if Obama hiccups, someone in LA will drive their car off the road and kill someone.

G29Reload
02-14-2012, 01:10
#2 followed by #3.

#5.

What concerns me most, in likeliness to happen.

Bilbo Bagins
02-14-2012, 07:32
Oldtimers, newcomers, military/LE crowd, average Joes....

Taking history and the present into account, including the current international climate what do you think the most likely reasons for SHTF will be? I've thought of some below, in which order I think will be most likely.

1. Natural Disaster - On a local scale this is especially true, such as the looting after the record Alabama and Missouri tornadoes last year, but could also be true on a larger scale like we saw after Katrina. There are areas of the U.S. very prone to large earthquakes, that just haven't really "gone off" in a long time such as Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina... and other places. If one of these places really let loose... well, look out. Can you imagine the good people of East St. Louis (#1 city in crime) being turned loose after the city was leveled by a quake? I wish that we could learn from the AMAZING strength and solidarity shown by the Japanese after their quake, but I fear that we as a whole would not behave that way...

2. Economic Collapse - Apparently this can come without warning and happen a whole lot quicker than we think.

3. Civil Political Unrest
4. Solar storm - Knoked out electronics... holly crap
5. Terrorist attack with WMD's - too awful to imagine...
6. Disease outbreak

What do you guys think? Please add others.


I think this is the biggest possible threat to happen in 2012.

Let's be frank, you have a real weak economy, you have heavy political partisanship, you have for the first time in US history a black president that was very popular in 2008 losing the upcoming election to a rich white guy.

I see more crime protest, and rioting in our near future.

Like others have mentioned we are overdue for a major terrorist attack, and a pandemic. To blend them together, we are real close to the point when pandemic flu will be weaponized.

pugman
02-14-2012, 08:07
2. Economic Collapse - Apparently this can come without warning and happen a whole lot quicker than we think.

I respectfully disagree.

The upcoming failure of the U.S Government and economy is probably the single most predictable event in U.S History.

In 2011 48.5% of households in this country received food stamps. EDIT: 48.5 MILLION AMERICANS U.S debt is basically out of control. A new measure of how deep we are in the s*** was released by Laurence Kotlifoff in November where he estimated the fiscal gap of the U.S federal government over the next 30 years is $211 Trillion dollars. U.S debt was downgraded for the first time ever and people barely flinched.

My father and I discussed this over the weekend. An untalked about problem is the one faced by homeowners who actually paid their bills, stayed employed no matter the cost in lifestyle, and bought a reasonable sized affordable house.

Imagine ALL the foreclosed homes on the market were cleared out tomorrow. My father didn't get it but here is my theory.

Guy A bought his house in 2006 for $250,000, did a few upgrades over the past few years.

Guy B bought the home right next door on a short sale for $150,000 in 2011

Both go and put their homes on the market in 5 years and lets say the real estate market has actually recovered.

Lets say both appraise at $275K in five years.

Guy B can put his home on the market and make a profit potentially a huge one...Guy A will possibly break even or even take a loss. Guy B has lots of room to move on his price...Guy A doesn't.

Depressed real estate values aren't the problem, but what people are able to buy these properties at. Are these prices or values out of line?

Last two homes sold in my development: 1) Listed at $350 sold at 240 2) Listed at $288 (the owners actual money in) sold at $215.

My BIL has his home on the market...the guy right behind him bought their place at $168....accepted offer at $105.

My sister's place after being for sale 3 years finally has an offer...she reasonably paid $168 5 years ago...offered price today $125

The student loan balloon, unemployment rates over 8%, inflation, the weakening dollar....when I ask people to give me anything which is supposed to improve in the next five years...most can't think of a single thing.

The experiment known as the United States of America is almost concluded. The signs of a collaspe are all over the place...at this point what they need is an actual trigger.

kirgi08
02-14-2012, 08:30
tagged.

pugman
02-14-2012, 08:40
Electric Grid goes down for a extended period of time.

Might as well add to my rant.

I saw a good show last year about the U.S power grid.

The average piece of equipment is 43 years old. All this equipment was designed for a 50 year life.

A complete upgrade to the entire U.S power grid is estimated to cost somewhere around $2 trillion dollars. BTW, the Obama adminstration added $1.3 trillion to the U.S deficit in 2010 alone. This $2 trillion number is well within reach.

Add to this the cost of replacing and upgrading all the bridges in the U.S at around $1.3 trillion....U.S dams is about $1 trillion...

the entire infrastructure of the U.S is in a sad shape of affairs.

cowboy1964
02-14-2012, 09:21
In 2011 48.5% of households in this country received food stamps.

I don't think that's correct. They may have received entitlements of some sort (including Social Security) but half of this country is not on food stamps.

TangoFoxtrot
02-14-2012, 09:38
2. Economic Collapse - Apparently this can come without warning and happen a whole lot quicker than we think.

3. Civil Political Unrest due to #2 or oil related.

4. Solar storm - Knocked out electronics, sent us back to the stone age or asteroid or comet strike.

pugman
02-14-2012, 10:13
I don't think that's correct. They may have received entitlements of some sort (including Social Security) but half of this country is not on food stamps.

I will get the source.

The number is the percetange of households receiving foodstamps; and before I stick my foot in my mouth I will confirm the sources but I know I've read this at multiple places.

This said: real life look into food stamps.

My MIL has lived with us since March of last year. She received her SSDI starting in June; while living with us where my wife and I made a very comfortable wage, she received the full $200/month allocation. Along with our food budget, I ate very well last summer.

After she received her SSDI, her food stamp allocation was lowered...but she still receives them. It went from $200..to $16 and this year she got a "raise" to $36.

I believe the source might be indicating a household receives them (technically mine does) but isn't solely supported by them.

and I stand corrected...read million as percent...which of course makes a huge difference which puts the figure closer to 1 in 7 households...thanks Cowboy

Bilrus61
02-14-2012, 10:19
All it would take in my opinion is two nukes in two American cities. Say Denver on a monday and Cleveland on a Tusday. Wenesday 100 million Americans would boil out of their respective big cities in blind panic. The economy would collapse. The gov
t was powerless for days in just New Orleans......even though they knew it was coming. Imagine that nationwide. Now some places might not be affected at all. Rural states mostly. However I think the rural areas around the large cities would be a war zone more or less. Power would be out, food shortages, highjacking on the roads would be everywhere. Nothing would move. Police would be overwhelmed. Order would be restored under martial law over time. I think there would be severe long term damage to the USA by just two little nukes set in the right place. Nuke set in Washington or NY would not have the effect of attacks on the "heartland" cities. Americans would think "oh yeah they are just attacking the centers of power" and go about their daily business. But if every American across the country thought HE might go up in smoke if he goes to work in Kansas City or Cinci the whole country could just fall apart in short order. Most likly scenerio in my opinion.

wjv
02-14-2012, 10:22
I think the first sign of major SHTF will be when GlockTalk changes from a brown theme to a much darker theme. . . .

DoctaGlockta
02-14-2012, 10:44
I think the first sign of major SHTF will be when GlockTalk changes from a brown theme to a much darker theme. . . .

:shocked:

gommer
02-14-2012, 13:00
Gamma ray burst from a black hole.

That could really play out a lot of different ways depending on the scale and scope of the burst.

Could just disrupt satellites or could strip the planet of it's atmosphere completely.

Bilbo Bagins
02-14-2012, 13:52
I think the first sign of major SHTF will be when GlockTalk changes from a brown theme to a much darker theme. . . .

Wait....What??? :rofl:

http://news.3yen.com/wp-content/images/oh_noes.gif

mtrboatinSOB
02-14-2012, 15:35
12.21.2012...

jkm
02-14-2012, 17:25
Over the years, I've seen people riot when their favorite team loses. Heck, I've even seen some riot when their team wins! Does anyone think rioting might occur if our current Pres is defeated in 2012?

654Boomer
02-14-2012, 19:30
Oldtimers, newcomers, military/LE crowd, average Joes....

Taking history and the present into account, including the current international climate what do you think the most likely reasons for SHTF will be? I've thought of some below, in which order I think will be most likely.

1. Natural Disaster - On a local scale this is especially true, such as the looting after the record Alabama and Missouri tornadoes last year, but could also be true on a larger scale like we saw after Katrina. There are areas of the U.S. very prone to large earthquakes, that just haven't really "gone off" in a long time such as Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina... and other places. If one of these places really let loose... well, look out. Can you imagine the good people of East St. Louis (#1 city in crime) being turned loose after the city was leveled by a quake? I wish that we could learn from the AMAZING strength and solidarity shown by the Japanese after their quake, but I fear that we as a whole would not behave that way...

2. Economic Collapse - Apparently this can come without warning and happen a whole lot quicker than we think.

3. Civil Political Unrest
4. Solar storm - Knoked out electronics... holly crap
5. Terrorist attack with WMD's - too awful to imagine...
6. Disease outbreak

What do you guys think? Please add others.

Greetings DaveG,

Just an "average Joe" here, but I think that you have listed most of what I have always thought as possibilities, and generally in the order that I would have listed them, with a couple minor modifications:

#1 - Natural Disaster, At least on a regional level, or something such as a mega-disaster which could spread nationally/internationally.

#2 - Economic Collapse, or more likely, the "welfare mommas" miss getting their next check. This country will be burnt to the ground overnight! :supergrin:

#3 - Terrorist Attack - coordinated and large scale.

#4 - Disease Outbreak - something "fast and furious" that would be difficult to contain, with a long lead-time for isolation/vaccine development and administration, etc.

#5 - Civil Political Unrest - If the Democrats don't retain the Senate and White House . . . well, just let your imagination run wild!

#6 - A Mary Kay Cosmetics Convention without the free buffet! You think that I'm kidding . . . it would be a horror of such epic and biblical proportions that has never before been witnessed in all of human history! An International disaster!:tongueout:

Glockdude1
02-14-2012, 19:42
Hurricanes are the only thing I am concerned about.

:cool:

Devans0
02-14-2012, 21:26
The net going down. TEOTWAWKI!!!

Economic depression worldwide, power grid meltdown, water wars, natural disasters have all happened and will happen again.

Bilbo Bagins
02-15-2012, 07:12
12.21.2012...

You know people laugh about this but think of it this way. You already have a strong possibility of civil unrest with the 2012 Election, and on top of that you have paranoia with the 12/21/12 doomsday. November & December is going to be nuts as it is, but add some other SHTF event and it could be a perfect storm.

mgentry
02-15-2012, 08:00
1. Natural Disaster - Earthquake. 2. Economic Collapse. 3. Civil Political Unrest, 4. Solar storm, 5. Disease outbreak, and/or 6. Terrorist attack with WMD's. When you look at these possibilities, one would need to be prepared to survive for 3 months to a year or longer. Food, water, shelter, medicine and self defense would be the issues that would need to be addressed.

If you've read "One Second After" you will realize that teamwork is going to be critical. A family can't do it on their own. What do you think?

kirgi08
02-15-2012, 09:08
1. Natural Disaster - Earthquake. 2. Economic Collapse. 3. Civil Political Unrest, 4. Solar storm, 5. Disease outbreak, and/or 6. Terrorist attack with WMD's. When you look at these possibilities, one would need to be prepared to survive for 3 months to a year or longer. Food, water, shelter, medicine and self defense would be the issues that would need to be addressed.

If you've read "One Second After" you will realize that teamwork is going to be critical. A family can't do it on their own. What do you think?

The above I Bolded will more than likely be the cause of our/US SHTF scenario.A natural disaster,such as "Katrina" actually united folk,that is if .Gov hadn't punted the pooch and the COTUS hadn't been ignored.

The Tornadoes in the south this year was a stark reminder,everyone that could help did.Messing with someones "Check" will cause the mayhem.Someone that thinks their "owed" will riot OTB.

If the election goes right or wrong there will be rumbles of discontent on both sides.If Obama wins re-election,he will start abusing the 2A.If he's allowed ta put another judge on the SCOTUS this nation will see CW II.'08.

Shadyscott69
02-15-2012, 17:04
Global warming.

















































































:whistling::tongueout:

SilverCity
02-15-2012, 17:30
Economic trouble...

Man it got dark in here. The atmosphere reminds me of "The Road".

SC

Braken
02-15-2012, 21:04
US Gov. preceives it's down fall brought to you by,
'We The People',
(which means you, me and the rest of the not .Gov world).

Time for The Change. Out of debt, populace under control.

.Gov releases the Toxic form of the bird flu, for which they have the antidote ready to give to who they decided needed it.

1% of the not .Gov survives.

Last chance are you Red Dirt Ready?

bdcochran
02-16-2012, 10:32
You asked for the reasons leading to the most likely shtf scenarios.

Ok. Most people go around on the verge of a nervous breakdown. It doesn't take much to set them off.

Were you cut off by another driver today? Was there a crowd of ba-stards tail gating you, despite you having left early for your appointment? Did the lady in front of you in line forget to take her medications and start throwing things?

Each one of those situations can lead to your meeting shtf.

Do you have relatives, neighbors or friends who don't prepare for winter, the usual hurricane, or the knock out of power for two weeks? Unfortunately, you shot off your mouth too many times telling the story of the grasshopper and the ant - and those people know that you are the ant - and now you face shtf.

Did you put off clearing the brush from around your home, dumping the multitude of boxes of old files, bought the cheaper fire extinguisher because you would never have a serious fire at home. Your own procrastination can lead to shtf. My late father laughed when his sister-in-law lost power and she ended up with a freezer full of rotten meat. It wasn't funny that he lived in a tornado alley, had no stored mre's, stored batteries, no generator and lost two freezers full of meat during a power out.

It all comes down to two things - you either create shtf or someone dumps it on you despite your preps. It doesn't matter whether you think the cause is B. Obama, cheating Greek politicians, God, you focus on avoiding creating shtf yourself for your little world.

Combatcomm
02-16-2012, 11:14
I think the first sign of major SHTF will be when GlockTalk changes from a brown theme to a much darker theme. . . .



Armageddon, Armageddon!:rofl:

leadcounsel
02-20-2012, 01:31
I started this same thread recently, so I'll play. While I agree with the OP that some of these are possible, heck even probable...

The more likely SHTF for each of us is heart disease, lost job/financial disaster, car accident, cancer from smoking, etc.

So, what are YOU doing to prevent the more likely SHTF scenario in your life?

glockguerilla
02-20-2012, 18:09
Katrina showed us what can happen. Had a buddy who bugged out...the second time he will do it quite differently.


Very curious ... what would he have done differently?? You can send PM if you like.

scand
02-20-2012, 18:40
When the food stamps stop coming













seriously