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JC Refuge
02-22-2012, 08:01
These results from a national survey by Kelton Research about Americans' views on disasters and preparedness are extremely interesting:

http://images.nationalgeographic.com/wpf/media-live/file/Doomsday_Preppers_Survey_-_Topline_Results.pdf

SFCSMITH(RET)
02-22-2012, 08:30
LOL.

That is all. Well, maybe a ROFL. But my back hurts today.

Bolster
02-22-2012, 08:47
This strikes me as the work of "researchers" who are remarkably unfamiliar with the topic they're researching.

JC Refuge
02-22-2012, 08:58
This strikes me as the work of "researchers" who are remarkably unfamiliar with the topic they're researching.

Actually--that's what you want if you want unskewed data.

But NatGeo obviously did not invest a huge amount of money in the survey. Still, it appears to be pretty well-done. For instance, some of the goofy response choices for movie scenarios would serve the purpose of determining the number of respondents who were not taking the survey seriously.

FYI--Being in the business myself for 10 years now, I've always been very interested in finding good data on "preparedness." Of course the very word itself is wide open to interpretation.

I think a lot of people are simply not aware of how popular prepping has become.

Of late, my own estimates of people who are seriously into preparedness in America is around 20%. Over the last five years, the percentage of those who are prepping has steadily risen (especially since Katrina).

Preparedness is definitely entering the mainstream today.

Our company's astronomical growth along with the skyrocketing numbers of competitors in the field are very strong indicators of that.

Bottom line, this survey data in general does pretty much square with my understanding of the marketplace today.

wjv
02-22-2012, 10:50
So 51% of the people think our economy is {BLEEPED}.
Just read that 49% of Americans don't pay taxes. . .

Hmm. . . . .

On another note:

I'm a 12%'r

If you only had to take care of yourself during a catastrophe, about how long do you think you would survive based on the supplies you currently have in your home?

100 Days or More 119 12%

Bolster
02-22-2012, 11:07
Actually--that's what you want if you want unskewed data.

I completely agree that uninvolved researchers are less biased, so the poll does have that going for it. OTOH, when doing research, generally the researcher is required to have some baseline knowledge about the area first. That's what the initial "review" section is for, in any research article.

I guess I was rattled by the "which movie" question, which seemed badly uninformed. OTOH, look at how much time discussion is devoted to movie-based fantasizing on this forum.

One thing that always amuses me, is the lens through which the liberal media establishment (NatGeo is very much part of this culture) views other cultures...always with a bias of "how weird are these people?" And that really comes out in the survey...almost expected to see questions reading:

"How odd are you?"
"Are you a social misfit?"
"What type of kook are you?"

Interesting that you estimate 20% prepping, and the move to mainstream.

WolfNotSheep
02-22-2012, 11:36
How was "have sex" not at the very top of the list of things you would do on the night before you thought the world was going to end? The other options were resolving disputes with loved ones, stocking up on canned food/resources, eating an expensive meal at a fancy restaurant, or going skydiving. So, let's see...the relatives I don't like I don't associate with and that's just the way it is so screw trying to rebuild burnt bridges, I already have food/resources stockpiled, I would just feel like I wasted the money if I spent more then $10-20 on a single meal for myself, and I see no reason in the world to jump out of a perfectly good airplane...

racerford
02-22-2012, 12:34
Question 2, the movie one was just goofy. 19% of the people think that alien invasion/visitation is a likely scenario and less than 15% think it would be some sort of disease.

Also it appears there is a fair amount of self selection in the survey, and dumb people. There is a high percentage that say they have 60+ days of food. And some that say they would survive less than a day on the food they have. Really they will die in less day with the food they have. Unless the food they have to eat is poisioned they should be able to last well more than a day. I think higher than average of the people selecting to respond to the survey are interested in prepping, so not a random sample.

G29Reload
02-22-2012, 13:03
What gets me is that for the preppers, at least the ones shown on Nat Geo, is they're all citing a reason for prepping BASED ON NO INFO WHATSOEVER.

They act like they know WHAT is going to happen, WHEN its going to happen and occasionally on things that even if they did happen, will produce some ridiculous result not supported by science. Then proceed to live their lives as though they are certain of it.

What I caught of last nights is the guy who lived in Jacksonville and moved to TN because he thought the poles are gonna flip.

Some people are sure about this as though the event has a facebook page or something and they get the scheduling sent to MS Outlook. Might as well turn our lives upside down based on some wild idea. Some people even think if it happens, gravity will stop and we'll just fly off into space for bit. :upeyes: all the buildings will crash or fall down and they are just certain of it like they're experts.

They have not a clue what they're talking about.

It is so important to keep it real, and these people are so far from reality.

The germophobe also needs to get a grip.

Is it POSSIBLE? Yes, its possible. She however, believes with absolute certainty that it will happen, like…next year.

Just watching her compulsive cleaning gave me the creeps. Shes like I dunno, a hypochondriac or something.

There are some things we can't prepare for. Don't waste a second of your precious time worrying about them.

The max I'll go on food preps is one year. If you farm or garden, great. The worst possible scenario I can imagine is a nuke strike, even that has its limits because the attackers are virtually guaranteeing their own destruction. Iran or a terrorist strike, yes, chaos, but recoverable. We'd retaliate and get it back on the rails eventually.

Water, yes, dealing with getting good drinking water and sanitation. I'm already a HAM radio operator, and I have G&A covered. Everyone should have a good FA cabinet or medicine chest.

If you want to go the sustainability route because you dig the independence, or economics of it, AND reap the survival benefits, great. Windmill, solar panels, farming, goat herding, great.

But planning for every bizarre theory goes over the cliff into a waste of time that stops me from living in the now.

Do what you can. Do what is reasonable. Have a plan. But this psycho, tin foil hat stuff is for the birds.

Nuke strike,
Economic collapse

with outside rare possibility of an EMP of varying severity are possibilities, along with any manmade chaos. Beyond that, I just shake my head.

Bolster
02-22-2012, 13:39
...Might as well turn our lives upside down based on some wild idea...

Being still slightly peeved at all the "just move away from Los Angeles" responses I get when I post an urban S&P topic, I would like to underline and highlight the above wisdom.

I'm fascinated how so many people have such wild, crazy, and irrational ideas. Has it always been this way? Does the internet facilitate?

I'd say 50% of the time I meet some new person (say, flying on an airplane) within 15 minutes I discover they are horribly imbalanced kooks in one way or another, applying much energy and devotion to wild, quirky, irrational ideas. Just the other day met a guy who seemed perfectly reasonable until he told me he thought that eating salmon was evil. More discussion, and it turns out he thinks that sea life hangs in the balance and we'll soon have no seafood.

Neuroticism is the new normal.

Best explanation I've seen of it, was a book called "Sense of an Ending," which argued that humans throughout time believe they have been living "at the end of time." Author proposed that humans felt life had little meaning if they were "just living in the middle of time somewhere."

Aceman
02-22-2012, 14:05
This is obviously a propaganda / marketing ploy for the series.

I'm have pro-level survey research skills. This thing blows chunks, technically speaking.

Biases questions, obviously socially correct answers, contradictory responses.

Entertainment value only. Did I mention marketing ploy?

JC Refuge
02-22-2012, 14:10
This is obviously a propaganda / marketing ploy for the series.

I'm have pro-level survey research skills. This thing blows chunks, technically speaking.

Biases questions, obviously socially correct answers, contradictory responses.

Entertainment value only. Did I mention marketing ploy?

Ummm ... isn't every survey (commissioned and most "independent" surveys too) about marketing and reputation management?

UneasyRider
02-22-2012, 14:35
This is the stupidest survey that I have ever seen.

G29Reload
02-22-2012, 15:46
Being still slightly peeved at all the "just move away from Los Angeles" responses I get when I post an urban S&P topic, I would like to underline and highlight the above wisdom.

Well, there's a logic failure there…that's not turning your life upside down, nor a crazy idea.

Frankly, we care about you. I feel for all those trapped even if for the moment, behind enemy lines. LA is a hateful place for gun owners and common sense. Laws and taxation there are crazy. We'd all like to see you reach freedom.

I for one would not similarly recommend if I had not taken my own advice. Not LA, but I am a former resident of MD. I made a choice to move to VA upon learning about concealed carry permits. Sold my house within the month, packed up and moved. Really put my money where my mouth was.

Now, as bad as LA is, you should NOT leave because the poles might flip. Just because it makes good sense. :supergrin:

Bolster
02-22-2012, 16:16
... (decided to keep mouth shut. For once.)

G29Reload
02-22-2012, 18:02
My point was, the comments about LA are about ACTUAL happenings, whereas the pole-flip-out freaks were moving on speculation.

And yes, I suppose even an in-state move can make chaos out of your life, but you'd get over it.

So, just for a parlor game, you've decided to leave LA. Where in Free USA would you pick to move to, say if you HAD to leave?

I'd pick CO for you, on a guess.

G29Reload
02-22-2012, 18:08
I think a lot of people are simply not aware of how popular prepping has become.


Preparedness is definitely entering the mainstream today.

Our company's astronomical growth along with the skyrocketing numbers of competitors in the field are very strong indicators of that.

Bottom line, this survey data in general does pretty much square with my understanding of the marketplace today.

The q & a is pretty much what I would expect from those unschooled in the matters.

Just the fact that the NG series is running says something is up.

Bolster
02-22-2012, 18:28
My point was, the comments about LA are about ACTUAL happenings, whereas the pole-flip-out freaks were moving on speculation.

Yep, got it. You are goading me into going OT so I'll try to keep it short. Leaving CA definitely NOT a crazy idea, but it WOULD turn my life, and the lives of a half dozen other family members, upside down. Particular concern for aging family members who depend on me. Believe me I would love to leave. Since you ask? My heart belongs to Arizona. I would also be very happy with Colorado or New Mexico. "But I have promises to keep, and miles to go before I sleep..." so consider me your insurgent ally behind enemy lines, and if I don't make it, then perhaps an example of what NOT to do.

OK, next post on topic, I promise.

G29Reload
02-22-2012, 23:41
You do get to enjoy the weather at least.

So we stay OT, I bet angelinos have earthquake prep down.

Aceman
02-23-2012, 04:34
Ummm ... isn't every survey (commissioned and most "independent" surveys too) about marketing and reputation management?

No - some people really want serious information.

Unfortunately, pollster, politicos, and marketing geeks have given them a bad name.


The results did show some very interesting skew in thought about the liklihood of very rare events, and I'd say a fair amount of - let's say optimism - about how much gear people have.

25% think they are more prepared than the rest: 1 in 4 is a prepper? Don't think so.

40% can go a month or more with the supplies in their home? AhahahAHAhahaHAhAhHAhAhHAHAhA. They must not have had space to type the rest of the question where it said "with a weekly trip to the grocery store"

43% Collect and store water for a disaster? Does that mean a case of Dasani in the garage that you might crack this weekend if it gets warm? Right....

1 in 3 can start a fire or stitch a wound? I've been camping with dozens of people and was the ONLY person who could do either of those things!

Deployment Solu
02-23-2012, 06:32
If you want to see how people are preparing for the economic collapse and civil unrest, come to a big gun show some weekend. Tulsa will be packed for both days.

Contact
02-23-2012, 07:32
What gets me is that for the preppers, at least the ones shown on Nat Geo, is they're all citing a reason for prepping BASED ON NO INFO WHATSOEVER.

They act like they know WHAT is going to happen, WHEN its going to happen and occasionally on things that even if they did happen, will produce some ridiculous result not supported by science. Then proceed to live their lives as though they are certain of it.

What I caught of last nights is the guy who lived in Jacksonville and moved to TN because he thought the poles are gonna flip.

Some people are sure about this as though the event has a facebook page or something and they get the scheduling sent to MS Outlook. Might as well turn our lives upside down based on some wild idea. Some people even think if it happens, gravity will stop and we'll just fly off into space for bit. :upeyes: all the buildings will crash or fall down and they are just certain of it like they're experts.

They have not a clue what they're talking about.

It is so important to keep it real, and these people are so far from reality.

The germophobe also needs to get a grip.

Is it POSSIBLE? Yes, its possible. She however, believes with absolute certainty that it will happen, like…next year.

Just watching her compulsive cleaning gave me the creeps. Shes like I dunno, a hypochondriac or something.

There are some things we can't prepare for. Don't waste a second of your precious time worrying about them.

The max I'll go on food preps is one year. If you farm or garden, great. The worst possible scenario I can imagine is a nuke strike, even that has its limits because the attackers are virtually guaranteeing their own destruction. Iran or a terrorist strike, yes, chaos, but recoverable. We'd retaliate and get it back on the rails eventually.

Water, yes, dealing with getting good drinking water and sanitation. I'm already a HAM radio operator, and I have G&A covered. Everyone should have a good FA cabinet or medicine chest.

If you want to go the sustainability route because you dig the independence, or economics of it, AND reap the survival benefits, great. Windmill, solar panels, farming, goat herding, great.

But planning for every bizarre theory goes over the cliff into a waste of time that stops me from living in the now.

Do what you can. Do what is reasonable. Have a plan. But this psycho, tin foil hat stuff is for the birds.

Nuke strike,
Economic collapse

with outside rare possibility of an EMP of varying severity are possibilities, along with any manmade chaos. Beyond that, I just shake my head.

Fwiw, I was reading a blog somewhere, and I think it was the "Bullets, lots of bullets" girl who was telling folks that NatGeo actually made them pick a disaster to be preparing for. NatGeo said that people preparing for a general collapse of society wasn't interesting enough, and that it would make for better television if they were preparing for something extreme such as an EMP attack, or the poles flipping sides.

Personally I think they made them choose a doomsday scenario to make them look like a bunch of paranoid crazies. I feel the show would have been something the majority of folks could relate to, had they allowed the folks to talk about general prepping, as opposed to these outlandish scenarios.

Sent from my SGH-T959V

UneasyRider
02-23-2012, 07:50
If you want to see how people are preparing for the economic collapse and civil unrest, come to a big gun show some weekend. Tulsa will be packed for both days.

Around Central Florida you are very, very correct. We had overflow parking this weekend and elbow to elbow in the show. Obama in a second term is more scary than a first term because he has absolutely nothing to lose enacting gun regulations.

Bilbo Bagins
02-23-2012, 08:40
No - some people really want serious information.

Unfortunately, pollster, politicos, and marketing geeks have given them a bad name.


The results did show some very interesting skew in thought about the liklihood of very rare events, and I'd say a fair amount of - let's say optimism - about how much gear people have.

25% think they are more prepared than the rest: 1 in 4 is a prepper? Don't think so.

40% can go a month or more with the supplies in their home? AhahahAHAhahaHAhAhHAhAhHAHAhA. They must not have had space to type the rest of the question where it said "with a weekly trip to the grocery store"

43% Collect and store water for a disaster? Does that mean a case of Dasani in the garage that you might crack this weekend if it gets warm? Right....

1 in 3 can start a fire or stitch a wound? I've been camping with dozens of people and was the ONLY person who could do either of those things!

Yea, but understand about how surveys work. You always get a group that wants to fill out the survey because its something that interest them.

Are you likely to fill out a survey abouts restaurants, or makeup? No not really.

Guys that are already into survival and Prep are more likely to stop and completely fill out a survey about S&P.

Personally I found the survey info somewhat intertesting. 33% of the people filling out the survey have a BOB, and 27% believe something is going to happen on 12/21/12

Unfortunately bad news for SafeCastle that only 8% consider building a bomb shelter.

Bolster
02-23-2012, 08:50
...that NatGeo actually made them pick a disaster to be preparing for. ...Personally I think they made them choose a doomsday scenario to make them look like a bunch of paranoid crazies.

Aha! I recognize the pattern (living near Hollywood). That sounds right; amp up the story line with falsehoods and then let the audience mock the protagonists for sport.

Question: Is the left, "anti-prepping?" If so, why? The first answer that pops into my mind is that the left is so deeply invested in leaning on the next person, that the idea of having to be self-sufficient cuts against their value system. But maybe there are other explanations.

If true, that's odd, because it seems to me that leftyism leads to phenomena like Greece, which virtually demands the necessity of prepping.

Aceman
02-23-2012, 10:03
The germophobe also needs to get a grip.

Is it POSSIBLE? Yes, its possible. She however, believes with absolute certainty that it will happen, like…next year.

Just watching her compulsive cleaning gave me the creeps. Shes like I dunno, a hypochondriac or something.


Good eye! She absolutely has at least an anxiety-based personality disorder (meaning not exactly clinically damaged, but well beyond normal - enough so that she and/or those around her would be happier with some therapy!)

She is definitely off the chain. My sis-in-law is like that. She'd check behind the couch to see if an outlet had a cover, and ignore a butcher knife on the edge of a table.

Women with with nothing better to do are tragic. A lot of them get that way after kids - which makes sense, but is tragic anyway.


I fully concur. When your prepping becomes your life, you missed the point. which is why i really try to integrate it into real life: Camping, pool, grilling, shooting etc....

G29Reload
02-23-2012, 10:17
Question: Is the left, "anti-prepping?" If so, why? The first answer that pops into my mind is that the left is so deeply invested in leaning on the next person, that the idea of having to be self-sufficient cuts against their value system. But maybe there are other explanations.

Not dependence on each other, but dependence on the .gov. Leftist/statist dems teach reliance on handouts and communal living.

Right/conservatives are about independence and self reliance. Less gov, less need for it.



If true, that's odd, because it seems to me that leftyism leads to phenomena like Greece, which virtually demands the necessity of prepping.

Which is why leftism is self defeating, ultimately. Too much reliance breaks the system for unlimited wants and when it does you have to fend for yourself. Better not to get involved in dependence to begin with.

WolfNotSheep
02-23-2012, 10:53
A little off topic here G29Reload, but we're glad to have you here in the free State of VA. I've got relatives in MD, my mom is from the Estern Shore, and it is a PITA to visit family. I hate crossing the border...voluntarily becoming a second class citizen, i.e. a peasant. Of course, it is nice to brag to my Uncles about all my full capacity magazines and no waiting periods on guns.

random southpaw
02-23-2012, 12:10
25% of people filling out the survey state that they have a B.O.B.?

If the true status of those filling out the survey is "prepper," then that number is way low.

If the status of the folks filling out the survey is "people interested in prepping," that would include those who have not yet undertaken prepping activities.

There is just not enough good information about the backgrounds of the population that filled out the survey.

Without meaningful background data, how can anyone tie the survey numbers to any reliable indicator of what is actually going on in the USA?

I agree with the poster who said this survey seems "off" due to a marketing ploy underlying it, etc.

While the info is interesting enough for a water cooler chat, it is not reliable enough or professional enough for important conclusions to be drawn.

Disaster scenarios based upon movies???? Really????

Bilbo Bagins
02-23-2012, 13:01
25% of people filling out the survey state that they have a B.O.B.?

If the true status of those filling out the survey is "prepper," then that number is way low.

If the status of the folks filling out the survey is "people interested in prepping," that would include those who have not yet undertaken prepping activities.



I think 75% of preppers think that a Bug out Bag is a joke, and for the foolish Zombie hunter/ Mad max types. I know I do.

http://www.theplacewithnoname.com/blogs/klessons/index.html

UneasyRider
02-23-2012, 14:50
I think 75% of preppers think that a Bug out Bag is a joke, and for the foolish Zombie hunter/ Mad max types. I know I do.



I have a Get Home Bag in my car which I consider really important but with all of our plans based on bugging in, I will confess that we don't have Bug Out Bags.

G29Reload
02-23-2012, 15:03
I think 75% of preppers think that a Bug out Bag is a joke, and for the foolish Zombie hunter/ Mad max types. I know I do.

http://www.theplacewithnoname.com/blogs/klessons/index.html

How is that a joke?

I don't have a BOB per se, I do have survival bags, GHB and various components for bugging out. Sanitary evac kit, the GHB becomes a BOB, MREs, fuel, a plan to load up on short notice and scram.

A BOB is a popular topic, also known as a 3 day bag, or whatever…not only not a joke but a pretty basic component of larger plans.

pugman
02-24-2012, 08:01
Of late, my own estimates of people who are seriously into preparedness in America is around 20%. Over the last five years, the percentage of those who are prepping has steadily risen (especially since Katrina).

I think the key word here is seriously.

In my immediate family there is one besides myself; there is an uncle who isn't so much a preppper but just normally lives the country boy lifestyle. He hunts, has a 2+ acre garden, several outbuildings, 6-8 cords of wood for his wood burner always at the ready, etc.

My case in point: Wisconsin just got hit with a snow storm. Not a lot...maybe 6". My brother down the street has a very nice 11 or 12 HP Simplicity snow blower..will go through nearly anything in 3rd gear...WILL go through anything in 2nd.

He called me to let me know he has no gas?

This is how I see America.

My brother makes a lot of money...easily 6 figures plus. He has 5 HDTVs at last count, each kid has an Xbox in their room plus a Wii in the living room. Yet he doesn't have any water storage capacity, doesn't own a single firearm, his pantry is stocked every 3-4 days.

His gas scenario isn't just a case of we have had a mild winter and he forgot to pick up gas. Its a "when I need it I will just go get it" attitude.

I would bet the percentage seriously into prepping varies widely by geographic location. Florida and the east coast people probably have some hurricane ready preps but I would be willing to bet most don't have 3 months worth of food.

I bet the # into prepping where they forego cable to buy more canned goods....or keep and rotate any amount of gas....or whatever is less than 5%

RatDrall
02-24-2012, 11:19
I think 75% of preppers think that a Bug out Bag is a joke, and for the foolish Zombie hunter/ Mad max types. I know I do.


The joke will be when some non- SHTF TEOTWAKI event happens that forces 75% of preppers out of their homes (house fire, gas leak, etc.) and they are running around trying to fit their crap into luggage when seconds count, as the other 25% (who had BOBs) beat traffic out of town.

My BoB really paid off when the apartment building I was staying in caught on fire while I was in the shower. I got dressed and armed myself in the parking lot and went to work :cool:

LongGun1
02-24-2012, 15:54
I guess I was rattled by the "which movie" question, which seemed badly uninformed. OTOH, look at how much time discussion is devoted to movie-based fantasizing on this forum.




Movies are good to establish a point of reference..

..essentially a shared experience of non-fiction, fiction or a mix of both.


Problem is (IMO)....many have a problem differentiating between fact & fiction.

And again IMO....even the majority of factually based movies out of Hollywood are so fictionalized to the point as to be factually unrecognizable from the actual events.


That being said....my opinion of the possibility of the following movies becoming anything near reality in the next 5 to 10 years ..

The Day After Tomorrow 0%
Armageddon near 0%
2012 0%
Independence Day 0%
The Day the Earth Stood Still 0%
I Am Legend 0%
The Stand 0%
Waterworld 0%
Planet of the Apes 0%



That being said...

..if i had to choose movies that have a really good chance of approximating reality at some point in the future..maybe even our lifetimes.

Contagion
Supervolcano
Deep Impact

Bolster
02-24-2012, 17:17
Movies are good to establish a point of reference..

..essentially a shared experience of non-fiction, fiction or a mix of both.

I take your point, but I'd edit that to read:

"Movies are good to establish a sense of shared experience."

They're notoriously horrible for establishing realistic points of reference. Research shows that humans are only marginally capable of separating truth from falsehood, when embedded in an overall fiction. (Current readers excepted, of course!) Long story short: Movies are one of the most judgment-distorting methods that exist. They seriously fk with what people think is true and not true, and are capable of making the extremely improbable, a point of seemingly legitimate reference.