Asteroid DA14 to come within 17,300 miles in Feb 2013 [Archive] - Glock Talk

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cowboy1964
03-05-2012, 00:15
http://rt.com/news/paint-asteroid-earth-nasa-767/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_DA14

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/index.html

Nasa is saying only .022% chance of impact from 2020 to 2057. Why 2020?

TangoFoxtrot
03-05-2012, 05:30
Who knows! An asteroid or comet can hit us at any time.

Bolster
03-05-2012, 10:20
I think everybody is thoroughly distracted with the 0% probability of a zombie invasion, instead...

It isn't really a threat until Hollywood puts out a dramatic series on it.

janice6
03-05-2012, 10:24
If it hits, it's Obama's fault.

cowboy1964
03-05-2012, 13:24
The thing that bothers me is that in that first story they say that they aren't even sure of the exact trajectory during it's pass next year. It will be so close that gravity could affect their calculations. I'm sure they're just sensationalizing, but it makes you wonder.

Thank goodness it isn't set to pass Dec 21 2012, people would be going nuts. Well some are anyway.

LongGun1
03-05-2012, 14:16
http://rt.com/news/paint-asteroid-earth-nasa-767/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_DA14

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/index.html

Nasa is saying only .022% chance of impact from 2020 to 2057. Why 2020?


Impact by an NEO (or Asteroid, Comet, etc) is one of those "wild cards" that could push the reset button on civilization!

Yes....many are now cataloged & orbits calculated...

..but most are not!

Even a smaller bolide can create an airbust that can take out a city or metropolitan area like DFW!


Some recent near misses were not discovered until after they passed us...

..days later! :shocked:

Bolster
03-05-2012, 15:12
Even a smaller bolide can create an airbust that can take out a city or metropolitan area like DFW!

Is the universe democratic? If so, let's vote what city we'd most like to see obliterated. Maybe God will listen.

I vote Los Angeles. No, wait... I live here, scratch that...I vote New York City.

Nasa is saying only .022% chance of impact from 2020 to 2057.

That's one chance out of 45. Somewhat higher than I thought.

Javelin
03-05-2012, 15:13
Is that the World War-Z comet?????


:couch:

20South
03-05-2012, 16:19
Is that the World War-Z comet?????


:couch:

It's Lucifer's Hammer.

Akita
03-05-2012, 17:56
Is the universe democratic? If so, let's vote what city we'd most like to see obliterated. Maybe God will listen.

I vote Los Angeles. No, wait... I live here, scratch that...I vote New York City.



That's one chance out of 45. Somewhat higher than I thought.
DC, with all politicians past present and future there to witness the next coronation.

jellis11
03-05-2012, 18:56
Bruce Willis and Steve Buscemi will take care of us. No worries guys!

id1otbox
03-05-2012, 19:07
read recently in discover magazine that there are more rogue planets flying around in the universe then there are planets trapped by a star

racerford
03-05-2012, 23:28
.......
That's one chance out of 45. Somewhat higher than I thought.

Actually that is more like 1 in 4500. 1/.00022=4545.4545454545

Lone Kimono
03-05-2012, 23:33
If anyone watches reality TV shows you know the Earth won't make it much longer anyway ;)

Bilbo Bagins
03-06-2012, 08:00
If anyone watches reality TV shows you know the Earth won't make it much longer anyway ;)


Yea we will all be dead by 12/21/12 anyway, so who cares what happens on Feb 2013.


:rofl:

Seriously though, it looks like the asteriod is small, not one of those big extinction ones. It will be equal to a nuke going off. So what are the odds that this asteroid will vear off course, and come down strike Earth, and not strike the 70% of the earth that is covered by ocean, but strike land that 30% that is land, and not only strike land, but strike that lucky 10% of earth's total land mass that is populated by people.

Bolster
03-06-2012, 09:21
Actually that is more like 1 in 4500. 1/.00022=4545.4545454545

LOL!! Math skills will be important in the post apocalyptic world. Preppers need to be able to calculate probabilities, at least:

1 / 45 = .022.

So, one chance in forty-five.

ALTHOUGH, the distance from the Manchester to Denver is 4545 miles, so your calculation's good for that.

cowboy1964
03-06-2012, 10:17
.022%

percent.

sebecman
03-06-2012, 10:52
LOL!! Math skills will be important in the post apocalyptic world. Preppers need to be able to calculate probabilities, at least:

1 / 45 = .022.

So, one chance in forty-five.

ALTHOUGH, the distance from the Manchester to Denver is 4545 miles, so your calculation's good for that.

:rofl: Sorry....couldn't help it. :tongueout:

Bolster
03-06-2012, 10:59
:rofl: Sorry....couldn't help it. :tongueout:

D'oh!! I deserve that. Didn't notice the tacked on "%". Who reports "probability percents"? Generally it's one or the other, not both. Some Wikipedian did the combination. The original (which I didn't look at, lazy) gives straight probability: as you say, 2.1e-04. I stand corrected. One in 4762. Thank goodness for peer review, I'll go prep for something else.

Foxtrotx1
03-06-2012, 11:13
.022 percent is .022/100 which is .00022 = 1 in 4500.

Prep less, use brain more.

pugman
03-06-2012, 13:50
Yea we will all be dead by 12/21/12 anyway, so who cares what happens on Feb 2013.


:rofl:

Seriously though, it looks like the asteriod is small, not one of those big extinction ones. It will be equal to a nuke going off. So what are the odds that this asteroid will vear off course, and come down strike Earth, and not strike the 70% of the earth that is covered by ocean, but strike land that 30% that is land, and not only strike land, but strike that lucky 10% of earth's total land mass that is populated by people.

1 in 151,515

However, things do happen...I can think of several cities I wouldn't mind seeing obliterated from the planet

While Bolster is pushing for NYC, I think they have had their share of sky related events.

May I propose:

Detriot...would anyone really miss it?

Bogota, Ciudad Juarez...

Or can't it just take out Iran?

racerford
03-06-2012, 13:50
LOL!! Math skills will be important in the post apocalyptic world. Preppers need to be able to calculate probabilities, at least:

1 / 45 = .022.

So, one chance in forty-five.

ALTHOUGH, the distance from the Manchester to Denver is 4545 miles, so your calculation's good for that.

The last 213,100 percent of the people that challenged my math skills lost, what made you think you would fare better:supergrin:

racerford
03-06-2012, 13:55
1 in 151,515

However, things do happen...I can think of several cities I wouldn't mind seeing obliterated from the planet

While Bolster is pushing for NYC, I think they have had their share of sky related events.

May I propose:

Detriot...would anyone really miss it?

Bogota, Ciudad Juarez...

Or can't it just take out Iran?

I was going for someplace with people that would injur our enemies, but I though better of it. I would prefer somewhere that doesn't cause widespread destruction, but a simple reminder that man does NOT control the weather or climate, nature does. That being prepared is important and those that prep are not hare brained nuts, but the smart ones.

Bilbo Bagins
03-07-2012, 08:31
1 in 151,515

However, things do happen...I can think of several cities I wouldn't mind seeing obliterated from the planet

While Bolster is pushing for NYC, I think they have had their share of sky related events.

May I propose:

Detriot...would anyone really miss it?

Bogota, Ciudad Juarez...

Or can't it just take out Iran?

If it just happen to hit Iran, imagine the reaction. They would think it was a US plot, that we somehow redirected the asteroid to hit Iran. Could start WWIII.

Natty
03-08-2012, 13:47
The Earth gets hit by meteorites all the time.

But most are very small.

MoneyMaker
03-08-2012, 16:44
Dont matter i heard we will all be dead Dec.21 2012,bwahahahahahahaha

runcible68
03-08-2012, 21:42
If it hits Newark that'd be cool.

But I live next to it. Always a downside.