Unemployment numbers [Archive] - Glock Talk

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MZBKA
04-06-2012, 08:24
The economy added 120,000 jobs last month, which points to a possibly slowing economy.

There has been a lot of confusion on this forum about what unemployment numbers mean --many think they are tied to unemployment benefits, which is wrong -- so I though I'd post a WSJ article that might be informative and clear up some of this confusion.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/04/06/four-common-unemployment-myths/?mod=e2tw

Glock30Eric
04-06-2012, 09:56
I don't need to look at unemployment rate to feel our economy's pulse.

I only need to look at the inflation rate versus our salary. We are losing our money daily. It's time for us to buy tangible stuff because they may be the mean/medium (sp?) of trade in the future.

Outdoor Hub mobile, the outdoor information engine

MZBKA
04-06-2012, 10:10
I don't need to look at unemployment rate to feel our economy's pulse.

I only need to look at the inflation rate versus our salary. We are losing our money daily. It's time for us to buy tangible stuff because they may be the mean/medium (sp?) of trade in the future.

Outdoor Hub mobile, the outdoor information engine

Inflation is still pretty low.

Glock30Eric
04-06-2012, 10:54
Inflation is still pretty low.

Of course if you take the number from the Gov't. In reality, it is about 15% and increasing.

Naelbis
04-06-2012, 11:18
Inflation is still pretty low.
Yup, so low that I got an 8% raise last year and went backwards in discretionary income even though all my bills are the same. NOTHING is getting cheaper, everything just goes up, up, up all the time...:crying:

Captain Caveman
04-06-2012, 11:34
Here's the way I prefer to look at it.

Break the US population in 1/3'ds. You have 33% of the population of working age (16-67), 33% who are too young to work (kids) and 33% too old (retirees). Now according to a report I read yesterday, the actual number of working adults ACTUALLY working is 58% and falling. So you have 58% of 1/3 of the population working to support the other 2/3'ds and the rest of the 42% of working adults.

We cannot sustain like this.

aircarver
04-06-2012, 11:57
The Orwell-speak is strong with that one .....

.

Lethaltxn
04-06-2012, 12:00
There has been a lot of confusion on this forum about what unemployment numbers mean --many think they are tied to unemployment benefits, which is wrong

Who thinks this?

Slug71
04-06-2012, 12:15
Inflation is still pretty low.

It actually isnt.
But even if it goes up 3% every year and you dont get an increase at work because of freezes etc., it all adds up. Lets say you have been on a pay freeze since 2008 with the crash of the economy. Which most people have by the way, and lets say inflation has been 3% a year, youre pretty much 12% in the hole today. Thats quite a lot and for the people that were living paycheck to paycheck, they are no longer making it. Part of the reason so many people are losing their homes and filing for bankruptcy.

And im sure the inflation is higher than that 12% since 2008. Gas alone has almost doubled.

Slug71
04-06-2012, 12:16
Here's the way I prefer to look at it.

Break the US population in 1/3'ds. You have 33% of the population of working age (16-67), 33% who are too young to work (kids) and 33% too old (retirees). Now according to a report I read yesterday, the actual number of working adults ACTUALLY working is 58% and falling. So you have 58% of 1/3 of the population working to support the other 2/3'ds and the rest of the 42% of working adults.

We cannot sustain like this.

Well put.

snerd
04-06-2012, 13:49
I heard Shep Smith on Fox yesterday, saying that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits went down last month, pointing to a marked improvement in the economy. My draw dropped.

MoneyMaker
04-06-2012, 14:30
he is paid to say that

Ruble Noon
04-06-2012, 15:12
The economy added 120,000 jobs last month, which points to a possibly slowing economy.

There has been a lot of confusion on this forum about what unemployment numbers mean --many think they are tied to unemployment benefits, which is wrong -- so I though I'd post a WSJ article that might be informative and clear up some of this confusion.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/04/06/four-common-unemployment-myths/?mod=e2tw

Making 9 Million Jobless "Vanish": How The Government Manipulates Unemployment Statistics



http://danielamerman.com/articles/2012/WorkC.html

Gunnut 45/454
04-06-2012, 15:16
MZBKA
Wow down 50% from last week! So exspect the unemployment rate to start going up!
I see 9% by November as the King has done all he can to stop all employers from hiring, High gas prices, the coming mortgage collapse etc !:whistling:

Skyhook
04-06-2012, 15:33
It actually isnt.
But even if it goes up 3% every year and you dont get an increase at work because of freezes etc., it all adds up. Lets say you have been on a pay freeze since 2008 with the crash of the economy. Which most people have by the way, and lets say inflation has been 3% a year, youre pretty much 12% in the hole today. Thats quite a lot and for the people that were living paycheck to paycheck, they are no longer making it. Part of the reason so many people are losing their homes and filing for bankruptcy.

And im sure the inflation is higher than that 12% since 2008. Gas alone has almost doubled.

Well, one thing about the above is obvious-- the 'employee' in question doesn't work as a teacher or as some other "public servant".

rgregoryb
04-06-2012, 15:38
Inflation is still pretty low.

you evidently don't buy groceries..........you can feel the rise in prices every week.

MZBKA
04-06-2012, 15:43
It actually isnt.
But even if it goes up 3% every year and you dont get an increase at work because of freezes etc., it all adds up. Lets say you have been on a pay freeze since 2008 with the crash of the economy. Which most people have by the way, and lets say inflation has been 3% a year, youre pretty much 12% in the hole today. Thats quite a lot and for the people that were living paycheck to paycheck, they are no longer making it. Part of the reason so many people are losing their homes and filing for bankruptcy.

And im sure the inflation is higher than that 12% since 2008. Gas alone has almost doubled.

If you use June as your base in 2008, gas prices have actually gone down.

Of course, that'd be twisting statistics, which is exactly what those do who claim that inflation is 15% or whatever ridiculous number.

I agree that if one's pay is frozen, inflation can make a dent out of your paycheck, but I'd dispute your claim that "most" people's pay has been frozen since 2008.

MZBKA
04-06-2012, 15:44
you evidently don't buy groceries..........you can feel the rise in prices every week.

Do you think "inflation" means the price of groceries?

My oh my.

Ruble Noon
04-06-2012, 15:46
Do you think "inflation" means the price of groceries?

My oh my.

No, the government removed groceries and gasoline from their inflation index.

Ruble Noon
04-06-2012, 15:47
If you use June as your base in 2008, gas prices have actually gone down.

Of course, that'd be twisting statistics, which is exactly what those do who claim that inflation is 15% or whatever ridiculous number.

I agree that if one's pay is frozen, inflation can make a dent out of your paycheck, but I'd dispute your claim that "most" people's pay has been frozen since 2008.

Yeah, a lot of people have taken pay cuts.

MZBKA
04-06-2012, 15:48
MZBKA
Wow down 50% from last week! So exspect the unemployment rate to start going up!
I see 9% by November as the King has done all he can to stop all employers from hiring, High gas prices, the coming mortgage collapse etc !:whistling:

Do you read your posts before you post them? You just claimed Obama has done all he can to stop high gas prices and the "coming mortgage collapse", whatever that is.

What is down from 50% last week?

Adding 120,000 jobs in a month is enough to keep up with population growth, but you may see more discouraged workers entering the workforce, thus raising unemployment.

MZBKA
04-06-2012, 15:48
No, the government removed groceries and gasoline from their inflation index.
source?

Ruble Noon
04-06-2012, 15:51
source?

It's been posted on here before and I believe it was for your benefit.
Aren't you getting tired of carrying water for obama yet?

MZBKA
04-06-2012, 15:51
Making 9 Million Jobless "Vanish": How The Government Manipulates Unemployment Statistics



http://danielamerman.com/articles/2012/WorkC.html

This isn't the government manipulating unemployment statistics. This is somebody not understanding what the unemployment rate means.

This is exactly why I posted the original article. . .:faint:

rgregoryb
04-06-2012, 15:52
Do you think "inflation" means the price of groceries?

My oh my.

to me it sure as hell does, we just ignore groceries and gas in your world?

MZBKA
04-06-2012, 15:53
It's been posted on here before and I believe it was for your benefit.
Aren't you getting tired of carrying water for obama yet?

What in the world are you talking about? I haven't brought up Obama, and I think his policies are harming the economy.

I haven't heard anything of the government recently removing groceries from the inflation index.

MZBKA
04-06-2012, 15:55
Yup, so low that I got an 8% raise last year and went backwards in discretionary income even though all my bills are the same. NOTHING is getting cheaper, everything just goes up, up, up all the time...:crying:

If you got an 8% raise last year, your bills stayed the same, and you have less discretionary income, you need to learn to count your money better.

You shouldn't expect things to get cheaper: a little inflation is expected to come with economic growth.

Ruble Noon
04-06-2012, 15:55
This isn't the government manipulating unemployment statistics. This is somebody not understanding what the unemployment rate means.

This is exactly why I posted the original article. . .:faint:

And I posted mine so you can see that you are wrong.

MZBKA
04-06-2012, 15:56
Who thinks this?

See Ruble Noon's post.

MZBKA
04-06-2012, 15:56
And I posted mine so you can see that you are wrong.

About what exactly am I wrong?

Ruble Noon
04-06-2012, 16:02
About what exactly am I wrong?

That we are confused about the governments unemployment claims. We know that they are manipulated downward. It is you that always has a hard time grasping that.

snerd
04-06-2012, 16:07
It's common knowledge that food and fuel are omitted from .gov propaganda numbers. This article is from a year ago.....
The consumer price index (CPI) for January released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed prices for all items except food and energy, also known as core inflation, were up 1% in January from a year prior.

But what core inflation isn't showing are the dangerous effects of hidden inflation, inflation that has not yet seeped into the core numbers - and could potentially drag down an already tepid economic recovery.

Hidden Inflation: What the Core Misses

Hidden inflation is digging into wallets and savings accounts, in the form of rising food costs and energy prices.

U.S. policymakers omit food and fuel costs from their core inflation calculation because they believe the two prices are subject to volatility and that core inflation is more indicative of underlying inflation trends.

But prices in these sectors are soaring higher.

The total price index including food and fuel - also known as headline inflation - was up 1.6% in January from a year earlier.

Price increases of energy and food accounted for two-thirds of the overall index jump. The food index has risen 1.8% over the last 12 months, the energy index is up 7.3% and the gasoline index is up 13.4%.

Recent research from Credit Suisse Group AG (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/01/31/will-commodity-prices-pass-through-to-the-core/) (NYSE ADR: CS (http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACS)) indicated "the common global concern of the moment is commodity price inflation."

And U.S. consumers are feeling the effects of these rising costs, despite the Fed's lack of attention to them......

http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/07/hidden-inflation-rising-prices-are-hitting-consumers-harder-than-the-fed-will-admit/

Naelbis
04-06-2012, 16:27
If you got an 8% raise last year, your bills stayed the same, and you have less discretionary income, you need to learn to count your money better.

You shouldn't expect things to get cheaper: a little inflation is expected to come with economic growth.
Do you even understand what inflation is? The Fed have pumped so much money into the system that the dollar is worth less so everything costs more. Inflation isn't caused by economic growth, it is a direct result of monetary policy. With the amount of wage stagnation most people have seen since 2008, they have essentially been taking a massive pay cut every year as their money loses value.

MoneyMaker
04-06-2012, 16:47
2012/2013 will be a year to remember,,,,,, We will have a Economic collapse,,,,,Its here already just waiting for 1 single issue to take place,,,,,Riots from the TRYVON ordeal will start it,,,,,A Earthquake,Tornado,Extremly Hot summer,Drought,,,, There will be a Huge Civil Uprising in the next 18 months!!!!

Ruble Noon
04-06-2012, 16:51
2012/2013 will be a year to remember,,,,,, We will have a Economic collapse,,,,,Its here already just waiting for 1 single issue to take place,,,,,Riots from the TRYVON ordeal will start it,,,,,A Earthquake,Tornado,Extremly Hot summer,Drought,,,, There will be a Huge Civil Uprising in the next 18 months!!!!

Obamacare taxes kick in along with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts in 2013.

Just1More
04-06-2012, 16:58
MZBKA is an Obama-lover and he's trying to deflect reality. Nice try.

Kingarthurhk
04-06-2012, 17:24
That's okay Paul Ryan will dock federal workers to make up for the shorfall.

Ruble Noon
04-06-2012, 17:46
That's okay Paul Ryan will dock federal workers to make up for the shorfall.

Great news! Have a link?

Kingarthurhk
04-06-2012, 18:03
Great news! Have a link?

It is pretty much his solution to everything, really. Him and Cantor and the Malboro Man of the House.

cowboy1964
04-06-2012, 19:32
Inflation is still pretty low.

Yeah, except for gas, electricity, water/sewer, food. All those things few of us need on a daily basis. :whistling:

cowboy1964
04-06-2012, 19:37
I haven't heard anything of the government recently removing groceries from the inflation index.

"Core inflation" does not include food and energy. How convenient.

Also the U.S. doesn't calculate inflation the way they used to, or the way most of the world still does. It's estimated the actual rate if they did right now would be around 7%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Consumer_Price_Index

Lethaltxn
04-06-2012, 21:29
Where'd he go? :dunno:
I find it curious how many new pro-Obama post/threads we've been getting.

certifiedfunds
04-06-2012, 21:53
to me it sure as hell does, we just ignore groceries and gas in your world?

Groceries
Gas
Healthcare
Education

certifiedfunds
04-06-2012, 21:55
That's okay Paul Ryan will dock federal workers to make up for the shorfall.

Dock whoever and whatever is needed. It's simple math.

You propose we keep borrowing money to pay unnecessary government employees?

certifiedfunds
04-06-2012, 21:57
If you got an 8% raise last year, your bills stayed the same, and you have less discretionary income, you need to learn to count your money better.

You shouldn't expect things to get cheaper: a little inflation is expected to come with economic growth.

:rofl:

RDW
04-07-2012, 14:53
Look here for the Real Numbers.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

MZBKA
04-07-2012, 19:09
Do you even understand what inflation is? The Fed have pumped so much money into the system that the dollar is worth less so everything costs more. Inflation isn't caused by economic growth, it is a direct result of monetary policy. With the amount of wage stagnation most people have seen since 2008, they have essentially been taking a massive pay cut every year as their money loses value.

I know what inflation is. That's why I was able to point out that your last post makes no sense.

MZBKA
04-07-2012, 19:11
That we are confused about the governments unemployment claims. We know that they are manipulated downward. It is you that always has a hard time grasping that.

How are they manipulated downwards? That you don't understand what the unemployment rate means doesn't mean that there is any type of manipulation.

MZBKA
04-07-2012, 19:12
Look here for the Real Numbers.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Those are the numbers Ruble Noon thinks the government is manipulating :upeyes:

MZBKA
04-07-2012, 19:17
"Core inflation" does not include food and energy. How convenient.

Also the U.S. doesn't calculate inflation the way they used to, or the way most of the world still does. It's estimated the actual rate if they did right now would be around 7%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Consumer_Price_Index

Who makes these estimates you're talking about? It seems like you're making up numbers.

Core inflation isn't the only number that the government reports. From YOUR link

The Federal Reserve's policy of ignoring food and energy prices when making interest rate decisions is often confused with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' measurement of the CPI. The BLS publishes both a headline CPI which counts food and energy prices,

The reason energy prices are excluded is because they are volatile. As I've already pointed out, gas prices are lower now than when Bush was president. Does that mean we've had deflation? Of course not.

MZBKA
04-07-2012, 19:19
Dock whoever and whatever is needed. It's simple math.

You propose we keep borrowing money to pay unnecessary government employees?

The real causes of our deficit are entitlement programs and military spending. Not government employees.

barbedwiresmile
04-07-2012, 19:22
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/04/nonfarm-payroll-120000-unemployment.html





.

certifiedfunds
04-07-2012, 19:31
The real causes of our deficit are entitlement programs and military spending. Not government employees.

You are correct. 100% correct.

Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and DOD.

Kingarthurhk
04-07-2012, 20:28
Dock whoever and whatever is needed. It's simple math.

You propose we keep borrowing money to pay unnecessary government employees?

Okay, end this three years of free unemployment for just hanging about. Stop giving out Social Security disability to freaks who want to live as giant babies, and illegal aliens. Stop all foreign aid, pull out all the troops in the middle east, and close uncessary bases.

Look, I just balanced the budge and made a surplus. Yeah me! And I didn't have be a mindless career politician to do it.

certifiedfunds
04-07-2012, 20:33
Okay, end this three years of free unemployment for just hanging about. Stop giving out Social Security disability to freaks who want to live as giant babies, and illegal aliens. Stop all foreign aid, pull out all the troops in the middle east, and close uncessary bases.

Look, I just balanced the budge and made a surplus. Yeah me! And I didn't have be a mindless career politician to do it.

It'll take more than that.

You have to look the boomers in the eye and tell them that they won't be getting social security or medicare, too.

Kingarthurhk
04-07-2012, 20:57
It'll take more than that.

You have to look the boomers in the eye and tell them that they won't be getting social security or medicare, too.

And the reason there isn't enough to go around...drum roll please. Corrupt Congressmen and women have been using it as their personal piggy bank for years to bank roll everything and anything that made them feel tingly inside. Then it has been used, abused, corrupted and defrauded by a greedy general public.

It's main purpose in life was to care for senior citizens in the autumn of their life. Had it been left alone to do that, it would be enough.

I know I have paid into that Ponzi Scheme for that last 23 years.

certifiedfunds
04-07-2012, 21:02
And the reason there isn't enough to go around...drum roll please. Corrupt Congressmen and women have been using it as their personal piggy bank for years to bank roll everything and anything that made them feel tingly inside. Then it has been used, abused, corrupted and defrauded by a greedy general public.

It's main purpose in life was to care for senior citizens in the autumn of their life. Had it been left alone to do that, it would be enough.

I know I have paid into that Ponzi Scheme for that last 23 years.

This is why

Its broken by design. Socialism always is.

And you left out Medicare

RDW
04-08-2012, 11:47
Those are the numbers Ruble Noon thinks the government is manipulating :upeyes:

I "think" the manipulation come from the fact that they are using the U3 numbers when they should be using the U6.