I figure facebook is worth $1.65 per share [Archive] - Glock Talk

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Vic777
05-19-2012, 08:13
What a bunch of suckers! When will it hit $1.65 per share? Lots of money to be made shorting.

aircarver
05-19-2012, 08:18
Some people learned nothing from the first 'tech bubble' ........:upeyes:

.

lancesorbenson
05-19-2012, 08:27
You don't think Facebook is worth twice what a company like Honda is worth? Are you crazy? Honda just sells millions of automobiles every year, whereas Facebook sells little Internet ads that nobody reads and brilliant games like FarmVille. Facebook is going to save the markets. I saw it in the news.

Vic777
05-19-2012, 08:33
This is just another way of creating money out of thin air. One Hundred Billion of Counterfeit "Money" was just pumped into the Economy.

fantastic 12 yr old Victoria Grant explains how banks commit fraud.mp4 - YouTube

http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-2550156453790090544#

kirgi08
05-19-2012, 09:12
Kinda flopping out the gate ain't it.'08.

Just1More
05-19-2012, 10:24
My son and his friends say Facebook isn't cool anymore. Sounds like it's on the way out.

evlbruce
05-19-2012, 10:28
My son and his friends say Facebook isn't cool anymore. Sounds like it's on the way out.

Figures, I made an account last week.

kirgi08
05-19-2012, 10:44
Figures, I made an account last week.

Folks Bruce has been kidnapped by :alien: :sad:


:wavey:

Ruble Noon
05-19-2012, 10:50
What is this facebook thing?

Fragman
05-19-2012, 11:01
What a bunch of suckers! When will it hit $1.65 per share? Lots of money to be made shorting.

Yup. As soon as the hype wears off and actual earnings per share become apparent, the stock price just won't support holding them. So they will get dumped. But right now, the price will go up short term due to flippers.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

concretefuzzynuts
05-19-2012, 11:18
They were buying their own stock to keep it from tanking.

Cavalry Doc
05-19-2012, 11:25
I'm not a big Facebook guy. What products do they produce, other than advertising revenue?

Sounds like a company that can make money, only as long as the fad continues, or for as long as it takes for something better to come along. Anyone buying stock in MySpace?

HarlDane
05-19-2012, 11:50
I'm not a big Facebook guy. What products do they produce, other than advertising revenue? Information.

Cavalry Doc
05-19-2012, 13:59
Information.

And they sell this information??

snerd
05-19-2012, 14:52
Facebook's New Terms Of Service: "We Can Do Anything We Want With Your Content. Forever."
Facebook's terms of service (http://consumerist.com/tag/terms-of-service/) (TOS) used to say that when you closed an account on their network, any rights they claimed to the original content you uploaded would expire. Not anymore.

Now, anything you upload to Facebook can be used by Facebook in any way they deem fit, forever, no matter what you do later.* (http://consumerist.com/2009/02/facebooks-new-terms-of-service-we-can-do-anything-we-want-with-your-content-forever.html#footnote1) Want to close your account? Good for you, but Facebook still has the right to do whatever it wants (http://www.facebook.com/terms#/terms.php?ref=pf) with your old content. They can even sublicense it if they want.“You hereby grant Facebook an irrevocable, perpetual, non-exclusive, transferable, fully paid, worldwide license (with the right to sublicense) to (a) use, copy, publish, stream, store, retain, publicly perform or display, transmit, scan, reformat, modify, edit, frame, translate, excerpt, adapt, create derivative works and distribute (through multiple tiers), any User Content you (i) Post on or in connection with the Facebook Service or the promotion thereof subject only to your privacy settings or (ii) enable a user to Post, including by offering a Share Link on your website and (b) to use your name, likeness and image for any purpose, including commercial or advertising, each of (a) and (b) on or in connection with the Facebook Service or the promotion thereof.”
That language is the same as in the old TOS, but there was an important couple of lines at the end (http://web.archive.org/web/20071012215843/www.facebook.com/terms.php) of that section that have been removed:“You may remove your User Content from the Site at any time. If you choose to remove your User Content, the license granted above will automatically expire, however you acknowledge that the Company may retain archived copies of your User Content.”
Furthermore, the "Termination" section near the end of the TOS states:“The following sections will survive any termination of your use of the Facebook Service: Prohibited Conduct, User Content, Your Privacy Practices, Gift Credits, Ownership; Proprietary Rights, Licenses, Submissions, User Disputes; Complaints, Indemnity, General Disclaimers, Limitation on Liability, Termination and Changes to the Facebook Service, Arbitration, Governing Law; Venue and Jurisdiction and Other.”
Make sure you never upload anything you don't feel comfortable giving away forever, because it's Facebook's now.

(Note that as several readers have pointed out, this seems to be subject to your privacy settings, so anything you've protected from full public view doesn't seem to be usable in other ways regardless.)

Oh, you also agree to arbitration (http://consumerist.com/5148154/mandatory-binding-arbitration-the-worst-choose-your-own-adventure-ever), naturally. Have fun with that.

http://consumerist.com/2009/02/facebooks-new-terms-of-service-we-can-do-anything-we-want-with-your-content-forever.html

certifiedfunds
05-19-2012, 14:54
I'm in the "overvalued" camp.

However, what I don't have a clear vision of is what Facebook will become now that he's got the traffic and networks.

snerd
05-19-2012, 14:54
For a simpler FB terms of use in "Bro Speak", PM me.

HarlDane
05-19-2012, 17:06
And they sell this information??
Of course.

MLM
05-19-2012, 18:50
My thinking is that it went public so the few that do own the 'company' can make scads of money before the next social fad. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if they already have something up their sleeve to replace FB or know of something in the works.

certifiedfunds
05-19-2012, 19:15
My thinking is that it went public so the few that do own the 'company' can make scads of money before the next social fad. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if they already have something up their sleeve to replace FB or know of something in the works.

Yeah I mean its going to change continuously or it will die. What I haven't the slightest idea about is the pipeline.

They've got way too much traffic and too valuable of a brand to just let it languish.

walt cowan
05-20-2012, 05:42
just another reason not to invest in wallstreet.

kirgi08
05-20-2012, 07:13
I think their gonna wait and let the public decide their "trends".'08.

Rabid Rabbit
05-20-2012, 07:38
California was betting on this IPO to help their budget problems, I think CA was counting on getting around 2 billion this year alone. Just another example of that chicken, egg counting thing.

cdog533
05-20-2012, 07:57
Watch out... People were calling Apple overvalued at $70, gold overvalued at $300.

May Apple will return to $70 someday, but it hitting $1,000 is probably more likely.

Vic777
05-20-2012, 08:04
Watch out... People were calling Apple overvalued at $70, gold overvalued at $300.Ya but that was Apple, that was Gold. This is Facebook we're talking about. All that money fleeing Europe just got fleeced! Poof! Gone! How else can we steal those Euro's when they're still worth something? Maybe now's the time to sell some counterfeit American Bonds.

Goaltender66
05-21-2012, 09:53
And today, morning has dawned and as I write this, Facebook is trading at $33.74, or $4.26 under the IPO price.

I think what disturbs me about this episode are reports that Morgan Stanley was propping up the stock price on Friday to avoid embarassment on IPO day.

Some thoughts...FB employees can't cash in their stock until Novemberish. Without a defensible business plan will the stock be trading at $38/share, and even if so, the price will tank as all those shares hit the market. Pets.com all over again.

Also...wonder if Priscilla Chan is worried.

evlbruce
05-21-2012, 10:19
Goldman Sachs, Tiger Global, and a number of other big firms have dumped their stock. Facebook just doesn't seem to be able to produce a revenue stream that would make it worth it's IPO price.

Chuck TX
05-21-2012, 13:31
FB won't last long term IMO. Eventually it will be myspaced by something better and cooler. It's a fad and its success depends largely on it being "in". Sure some folks use it to share info and pics with the family, but it's not the only game in town for that. Nor is that what drives the popularity of such mediums. The next generation of youths, attention whores, and twilight moms will want their own interface by which their personal info can be stolen by corporations and sold.

HarlDane
05-21-2012, 14:08
FB won't last long term IMO. Eventually it will be myspaced by something better and cooler. It's a fad and its success depends largely on it being "in". Sure some folks use it to share info and pics with the family, but it's not the only game in town for that. Nor is that what drives the popularity of such mediums. The next generation of youths, attention whores, and twilight moms will want their own interface by which their personal info can be stolen by corporations and sold.IMO, Facebook has eclipsed fad status. It's no longer just for fickle HS and college aged kids.


Personally I think it's great. By "liking" things I'm interested in, it allows me to keep up with things I enjoy. I get info on upcoming shows by obscure bands I like, first crack at new gear and great deals from the cottage lightweight backpacking manufacturers I patron and I've scored some great deals and promotions from local restaurants I like (scored a $100 gift certificate a few months ago to the best place in town).

Facebook, like anything else, is what you make of it.

Chuck TX
05-21-2012, 14:25
IMO, Facebook has eclipsed fad status. It's no longer just for fickle HS and college aged kids.


Personally I think it's great. By "liking" things I'm interested in, it allows me to keep up with things I enjoy. I get info on upcoming shows by obscure bands I like, first crack at new gear and great deals from the cottage lightweight backpacking manufacturers I patron and I've scored some great deals and promotions from local restaurants I like (scored a $100 gift certificate a few months ago to the best place in town).

Facebook, like anything else, is what you make of it.

I doubt it'll be an exception.

A Members Only jacket will still keep you warm too. The most sought after target demographic matters with such "products". I don't believe it will stay on top once it's no longer cool. Advertising, deals, promos, and discounts will follow the disposable income of the trend makers/followers.

snerd
05-21-2012, 14:30
IMO, Facebook has eclipsed fad status. It's no longer just for fickle HS and college aged kids.


Personally I think it's great. By "liking" things I'm interested in, it allows me to keep up with things I enjoy. I get info on upcoming shows by obscure bands I like, first crack at new gear and great deals from the cottage lightweight backpacking manufacturers I patron and I've scored some great deals and promotions from local restaurants I like (scored a $100 gift certificate a few months ago to the best place in town).

Facebook, like anything else, is what you make of it.
I have to agree with HarlDane. This thing is H U G E. People can't stay away from it. Very addicting and a B I G part of millions of people's lives. It's here to stay. I just think a lot of folks are going to get a trim at this valuation. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

snerd
05-21-2012, 14:39
As if on que..............

Facebook stock plunges 10 percent after second day of trading

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/may/21/stocks-open-higher-wall-street-facebook-falls/

HarlDane
05-21-2012, 15:06
I doubt it'll be an exception.

A Members Only jacket will still keep you warm too. The most sought after target demographic matters with such "products". I don't believe it will stay on top once it's no longer cool. Advertising, deals, promos, and discounts will follow the disposable income of the trend makers/followers.
Members Only? Really? Facebook has just shy of a billion unique users a month (and over a 1/2 billion daily), the majority of whom are outside the US. It's well past the point of being a fad and will be around for quite some time.

jeanderson
05-21-2012, 15:21
Never could figure out these internet revenue models... Facebook doesn't produce anything and is worth billions? Huh?

FL Airedale
05-21-2012, 16:44
I didn't buy Facebook because I thought it was greatly overvalued. I got burned on tech stocks before and didn't want to repeat my mistake.

Advertisers don't seem to be getting much bang for their buck at Facebook. People don't go there to read the ads and rarely click on them.

When the advertising dollars dry up and Facebook has to charge for the service, how many of their 900 million subscribers will stay?

I already left because my privacy was being compromised. It wasn't all Facebook's fault. A moron relative I have on my friends list was telling secrets.

Flintlocker
05-21-2012, 17:27
Given that you folks are generally wrong about everything, it sounds like it's time to buy FB. $60 by August. :tongueout:

auto-5
05-21-2012, 20:06
Facebook does do some interesting thing that other web sites cannot match. Because Facebook has this ability to vacuum information from people it's advertisers are able to target it's audience to a degree we have not seen before. For instance I just unblocked my adds to see what they had up. I had a craft beer, scuba diving, and midway USA ad on my page. These are all things I am interested in.

Because you are only advertising to people with interests in your type of product you get much more bang for your buck.

G29Reload
05-21-2012, 20:31
Members Only? Really? Facebook has just shy of a billion unique users a month (and over a 1/2 billion daily), the majority of whom are outside the US. It's well past the point of being a fad and will be around for quite some time.


This.

I'm not a fan of the concept, frankly the whole thing galls me as a self service ID theft device. Reporting in on all you do for the whole world? Not me.

But, as a business concept? They have the eyeballs. By the billions.

There's a problem with shakeout, valuation. But once the dust settles and ad revenue is recorded…its ability to produce a profit and create revenue streams might be really huge.

It may even be way undervalue now…only time will tell.

QNman
05-21-2012, 20:33
Watch out... People were calling Apple overvalued at $70, gold overvalued at $300.

May Apple will return to $70 someday, but it hitting $1,000 is probably more likely.

Yes, but Apple and gold sell tangible assets. I'm just saying...

QNman
05-21-2012, 20:34
This.

I'm not a fan of the concept, frankly the whole thing galls me as a self service ID theft device. Reporting in on all you do for the whole world? Not me.

But, as a business concept? They have the eyeballs. By the billions.

There's a problem with shakeout, valuation. But once the dust settles and ad revenue is recorded…its ability to produce a profit and create revenue streams might be really huge.

It may even be way undervalue now…only time will tell.

Perhaps. Until the next thing comes along...

Chuck TX
05-21-2012, 20:51
Members Only? Really? Facebook has just shy of a billion unique users a month (and over a 1/2 billion daily), the majority of whom are outside the US. It's well past the point of being a fad and will be around for quite some time.

Do really believe that it'll maintain its status for 10 to 20 years?

Ultimately it is another replaceable service. Nothing more than a medium dependent upon its users for actual product. Its success hinges on popularity. Once something bigger and better comes along, that the next generation can call their own, fb will have been supplanted just as fb did myspace. Kids don't want to do the same crap as their parents. That's not likely to ever change. As goes the target demographic so goes the advertising money. I'll be surprised if that hasn't happened in five years.

Goaltender66
05-22-2012, 05:54
Facebook does do some interesting thing that other web sites cannot match. Because Facebook has this ability to vacuum information from people it's advertisers are able to target it's audience to a degree we have not seen before. For instance I just unblocked my adds to see what they had up. I had a craft beer, scuba diving, and midway USA ad on my page. These are all things I am interested in.

Because you are only advertising to people with interests in your type of product you get much more bang for your buck.

OK, but you only saw those ads after you unblocked them. The ability to do so tends to negate the value of targeted advertising.

auto-5
05-22-2012, 06:59
OK, but you only saw those ads after you unblocked them. The ability to do so tends to negate the value of targeted advertising.


Yes you can block ads on FB. You can also FF over them with Tivo and ignore them on billboards.

Does this mean that advertising in general is worthless? I don't think so at all.

Yes plenty of people have ad blocker software but I doubt it is anywhere near 50% of FB users. And again it is better to target your audience as effectually as possible. With all the data mining FB has done over the years on it's members I think it will become a valuable tool for ad buyers.

Louisville Glocker
05-22-2012, 07:12
I'm not buying at the current price, but I think Facebook is here to stay. I know there are some old timers here, and maybe some folks who don't live next to their laptop computers, but FB (facebook) is a major form of communication for a billion people around the world. Sixty percent of internet users in the US use it. Those are HUGE numbers.

Personally, I'd say I check it on average 2-3 times per day. It is a way I can communicate with people around town, around the country, and even my friends overseas in Europe and Asia. It makes the world smaller and closer, which is why it is such a valuable tool.

I think it is here to stay. They will undoubtably come up with some new revenue streams (I ignore the silly games and apps) but simply having half a billion people online daily makes it an amazing advertising tool. Communication is critical in our society in the 21st century, so I predict the stock will level out and gradually rise. I'm guessing it'll bottom out in the 20's, rising to over 50/share in the next two years.

p.s. I also use FB for a local group I'm a member of. Just another tool it has in its arsenal. It is a closed group, so you need an invite to get in. A great way to share info without letting the whole world watch.

Goaltender66
05-22-2012, 07:35
Yes you can block ads on FB. You can also FF over them with Tivo and ignore them on billboards.

Does this mean that advertising in general is worthless? I don't think so at all.

Yes plenty of people have ad blocker software but I doubt it is anywhere near 50% of FB users. And again it is better to target your audience as effectually as possible. With all the data mining FB has done over the years on it's members I think it will become a valuable tool for ad buyers.

Where did I say all advertising is worthless?

Never said it was "worthless," only that ad value on Facebook (and by extension, internet advertising in general) is limited if people are actively blocking it. The value added certainly is not enough to justify Facebook's current market cap. The market seems to agree, else Morgan Stanley wouldn't have had to spend Friday and Monday morning propping up the stock price.

So yes, slicing and dicing your target audience is fine, and that capability may justify a premium on the ad price, but the existence of ad blockers plus the fact that the platform (Facebook) likely has no decent metrics on what exactly is being blocked decreases its effectiveness.

pugman
05-22-2012, 07:41
I'm not a big Facebook guy. What products do they produce, other than advertising revenue?

Sounds like a company that can make money, only as long as the fad continues, or for as long as it takes for something better to come along. Anyone buying stock in MySpace?

Myspace was picked up by an investment group and Justin Timberlake for $35 million...a fraction of its former "worth"

My thinking is that it went public so the few that do own the 'company' can make scads of money before the next social fad. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if they already have something up their sleeve to replace FB or know of something in the works.

Remember, the owners of FB have already made scads of money....how much is anyone's guess. Most of the investment banks bought in when it was private......but I have assume these guys were thinking...get in when its private and dump the shares on the open market.

People don't realize there is a huge difference between a good business and a good site.

FB is easy to use for the most part, popular in over half of Americans have an account (used or not who knows), etc.

I'm sure internally they have thrown around ideas like charging an annual due...make it low enough people will pay it. Charge $5/year and BANG! you just introduced a $650 million dollar revenue stream. Charge a business $25/year and they will pay it...if they charged say $1000 you would see them drop like flies. I check facebook maybe once a day if I'm lucky; but its worth the price of entry (at $5) just to be able to find pics of old friends.

Imagine if Glocktalk started an annual due of $5..or even $10. Admit it; 95% of the 20,000 or so members on these boards would pay it.

Is FB worth $100 billion dollars-depends. Now with additional capital lets see how far they extend their reach.

snerd
05-23-2012, 10:04
Investors File Suit Against Facebook, Underwriters

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304707604577422063685311108.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories

snerd
05-23-2012, 12:37
Facebook Fallout: Morgan Stanley May Face Legal Liability, Attorney Says

As the dust settles on Facebook's botched IPO, a lot of fingers are being pointed, regulators are investigating and at least one class action lawsuit (http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-morgan-stanley-sued) has been filed against Morgan Stanley and Facebook.

"There are issues that we need to look at specifically with respect to Facebook," SEC Chair Mary Schapiro told reporters Tuesday after testifying before the Senate Banking Committee.

The handling of Facebook's IPO is "a matter of regulatory concern," said Rick Ketchum of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Wall Street's self-regulatory agency (yes, they have one.)

In addition, the top securities regulator in Massachusetts has subpoenaed Morgan Stanley amid reports that the securities firm, who was the lead underwriter on the IPO, selectively disclosed material information about Facebook right before the offering.

"There's a real chance Morgan Stanley will have legal liability," says Andrew Stoltmann, a securities attorney and principal at Stoltmann Law Offices in Chicago. "Other underwriters might as well. We will see as regulatory investigations expand who else might be liable."

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/facebook-fallout-morgan-stanley-may-face-legal-liability-163903471.html
Gee, who'd a thunk it?! A fool and his money are soon parted! :whistling:

snerd
05-23-2012, 12:40
Short sellers lining up to bet against Facebook


"Right now it's unlimited demand - everybody is looking for it because everybody initially wants to put the short on," said a lending agent at a securities lending agency, which finds shares for brokers to borrow to lend to hedge funds and other clients.

Short sellers borrow shares and sell them in the open market. They aim to buy the shares back at a lower price, return them to the borrower and pocket the difference.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/23/facebook-shortsellers-idUSL1E8GMGS720120523?type=companyNews&feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43

cowboy1964
05-23-2012, 12:49
Facebook's PE is like 5 times Apple's. Apple actually makes things. Things that many, many, people pay hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars every year for. I don't even have an Apple computer but I've had 3 iPhones and 2 iPads in the last 5 years. I still don't have a Facebook account and never will.

I've been saying for years that Facebook will eventually go the way of Friendster and MySpace. In the end it's really just the same thing, just bigger. But remember how big MySpace was at it's peak.