17 Reasons To Be EXTREMELY Concerned About the Second Half of 2012 [Archive] - Glock Talk

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Ruble Noon
07-03-2012, 05:29
http://lewrockwell.com/rep3/concerned-2nd-half-of-2012.html

cowboy1964
07-03-2012, 11:01
While I agree with all of those issues I don't think really most of them are going to go ballistic in the next 6 months necessarily. Many of them are at least 2-3 years away.

Also, they forgot about Iran/Israel. That most likely WILL happen this year.

svtpwnz
07-03-2012, 12:52
While I agree with all of those issues I don't think really most of them are going to go ballistic in the next 6 months necessarily. Many of them are at least 2-3 years away.

Also, they forgot about Iran/Israel. That most likely WILL happen this year.

I agree. There are too many variables to say that six months is the timeframe of doomsday. The election here in November is a large part of the equation and if Romney wins the bid, will he actually repeal Obamacare? I for one am 50/50 on him standing to his word on that issue.

Will Germany get sick of holding up all the fat lazy wealth robbing liberals around them? Who knows. Isreal/Iran is just a matter time and no one knows for sure when it will happen. The spanish financial system is a joke and has always been a joke nuff said.

Me, I am just making sure I have plenty of fuel on hand, lots of ammo, weapons for me and my family,non perishable food to last a few weeks, and a few other items. This is simply a default to living in a hurricane prone environment so it's pretty normal for alot of us to always have these items anyway. Who really knows for sure.

JBnTX
07-03-2012, 12:59
What if those 17 things don't happen?:whistling:

ALL of that stuff has been predicted before, in fact it was all supposed to happen last year. What happened?

There's a lot of people making a lot of money off this gloom and doom crap,
and they're laying it on thick this year.

..

cowboy1964
07-03-2012, 15:46
What if those 17 things don't happen?:whistling:

ALL of that stuff has been predicted before, in fact it was all supposed to happen last year. What happened?

There's a lot of people making a lot of money off this gloom and doom crap,
and they're laying it on thick this year.

..

Well I agree that the doom-and-gloomers are going overboard, but things really ARE going south in a hurry and no one is really addressing any of the underlying problems and are in fact just accelerating the problems.

Jonesee
07-03-2012, 16:06
If you invested in an S&P Index fund you have already made 9.26% YTD, in a Dow Index fund, you have made 6.7% , and that is in only the first 6 months... By most standards that is a pretty good full year return.
It doesn't appear now is the time to be sitting on the sidelines.

Last year at this time I was at 40% cash holdings. I am basically all in now.

I am rebalancing some of my portfolio this week. Interestingly, I am being advised to enter the European market. Clearly some money managers believe the Euros have turned a corner. Europe was the driver in the recent run-up.

Everyone has their own risk tolerance. Maybe the perceived risk for the second half of the year is over the threshold for some.

My tolerance is way above normal and I believe the market will continue to grow the second half. Basic economics, higher risk=higher return.

beforeobamabans
07-03-2012, 17:53
There's a lot of people making a lot of money off this gloom and doom crap..

I am one of those people. If Romney gets elected, you will see a big rally in the stock markets but it will be temporary. If you are invested long, use it as an opportunity to cash out because none of the fundamental problems have been solved and there's nothing in Mitt's policy positions that will solve this country's long term problems.

For example....did you or do you have a "home equity loan"? Did you know that the height of this financial fad was 2003 and that the typical maturity is ten years? Do you know what happens when the HELs roll over in 2013? They become a fixed loan at whatever the lender says the current rate is. This will push many, many thousands of additional homeowners into foreclosure sending the housing market on another leg down, resulting in more business closures and employee layoffs which will.....

Oh yeah, 10,000 more productive baby boomers will leave the work force every day and put their hands out regardless of who wins the election. Big problem no one has planned for. So there's #18 and 19 and there's a lot more.

CAcop
07-03-2012, 19:00
I am one of those people. If Romney gets elected, you will see a big rally in the stock markets but it will be temporary. If you are invested long, use it as an opportunity to cash out because none of the fundamental problems have been solved and there's nothing in Mitt's policy positions that will solve this country's long term problems.

For example....did you or do you have a "home equity loan"? Did you know that the height of this financial fad was 2003 and that the typical maturity is ten years? Do you know what happens when the HELs roll over in 2013? They become a fixed loan at whatever the lender says the current rate is. This will push many, many thousands of additional homeowners into foreclosure sending the housing market on another leg down, resulting in more business closures and employee layoffs which will.....

Oh yeah, 10,000 more productive baby boomers will leave the work force every day and put their hands out regardless of who wins the election. Big problem no one has planned for. So there's #18 and 19 and there's a lot more.

18. Interest rates are very low today.

19. There are many people during this recession that have become old enough to work but can't find any work. That is a surplus of labor. The boomers retiring might actually help things.

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beforeobamabans
07-03-2012, 20:43
18. Interest rates are very low today.

19. There are many people during this recession that have become old enough to work but can't find any work. That is a surplus of labor. The boomers retiring might actually help things.

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I had one of those HELs at 3%. The same bank wanted 6% to renew it. Remember, the banks are under tremendous pressure to get rid of these potentially bad mortgages. I just paid it off but most owners of these loans cannot, hence thousands with new financial emergencies.
You're from California. You will see the misery up close and personal as naturally, your state leads the league in overextended mortgages.

The US economy is 70% consumption. When relatively wealthy, low debt boomers are replaced by 20-somethings making 1/4 as much and with six figures in school debt, demand will fall. Supply will have to right size itself and there will be lots of casualties.

Cambo
07-03-2012, 21:04
What if those 17 things don't happen?:whistling:

ALL of that stuff has been predicted before, in fact it was all supposed to happen last year. What happened?

There's a lot of people making a lot of money off this gloom and doom crap,
and they're laying it on thick this year.

..

It is money making crap that doesn't end:
End Of America '10
End Of America '11
End Of America '12

I want the economy to get better just so that these scumbags look even more foolish than they already do.

beforeobamabans
07-04-2012, 07:02
I want the economy to get better just so that these scumbags look even more foolish than they already do.

Let's see:

-Europe entering depression
-US "Fiscal Cliff" [How will that get resolved? I predict a punt]
-US trillion dollar plus annual deficits
-Entire economy propped up by Fed crack. The patient is getting resistant
-Unemployment at 14%+ and not getting better
-Obamacare will continue to cause business to hold back

Hope isn't going to solve any of this. We desperately need proper leadership and there isn't any running for president.

Cambo
07-04-2012, 08:23
Let's see:

-Europe entering depression
-US "Fiscal Cliff" [How will that get resolved? I predict a punt]
-US trillion dollar plus annual deficits
-Entire economy propped up by Fed crack. The patient is getting resistant
-Unemployment at 14%+ and not getting better
-Obamacare will continue to cause business to hold back

Hope isn't going to solve any of this. We desperately need proper leadership and there isn't any running for president.

I don't disagree with what you've said(although Mitt Romney has got to be better than Obama), I am weary of the incessant gold commercials, end of america commercials, blah, blah, blah...

beforeobamabans
07-04-2012, 08:27
I don't disagree with what you've said(although Mitt Romney has got to be better than Obama), I am weary of the incessant gold commercials, end of america commercials, blah, blah, blah...

Agreed. If BHO is re-elected, he will achieve his "transformation", probably permanently. Romney's prescription seems to be let's slow down the train to destruction but since we don't want to hurt anyone's feelings, we aren't going to stop it and put it in reverse.

cowboy1964
07-04-2012, 11:31
I am one of those people. If Romney gets elected, you will see a big rally in the stock markets but it will be temporary. If you are invested long, use it as an opportunity to cash out.

And what do you do with all that cash?

I'm keeping some cash in money making machines like Apple.

beforeobamabans
07-04-2012, 11:53
And what do you do with all that cash?

I'm keeping some cash in money making machines like Apple.

Depending on your risk tolerance, preserve capital and in my case, I use high beta ETFs to trade market extremes.

The old 'Buy and Trade' mutual fund strategy of the 80's and 90's Is a thing of the past. It's a trading market now. It is my belief that the following themes are ripe for speculation:

-Equities will be range bound until the election. If BHO survives, it will break to the downside. If Romney gets elected, there will be a short term rally followed by the realization that very little has changed, Europe is headed for depression, the fiscal cliff remains unresolved, our budget deficits and debt remain unresolved, our systemic high unemployment remains unresolved, and there's nothing that can be done about the fall off in productivity and consumption resulting from 10,000 baby boomers retiring every day except to downsize to the new reality.
-The 30 year bull market in bonds will end sometime in the next few years. When it does, and interest rates rise, individuals, corporations and municipalities will be racing one another to see who can get to the bankruptcy window first. More home foreclosures, more layoffs and business closures and government belt tightening. There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth, except for those who are short bonds. Can the 10 yr T-bill really go much lower?
-Volatility is here to stay. The VIX and related ETFs offer easy access to betting on the wild swings we are seeing in the market. For example, the little rally in the SP500 has pushed the related VIX down below 17. The bottom of its range is 15. It has visited 40 several times over the past few years and it will do so again. I am building a position now that I will start selling at 25 and higher, then play with house money.

In summary, cash is king again and will appreciate in this deflationary environment. Trade around market extremes and you can grow it quite dramatically in this market. It's not investing any more.

Cambo
07-04-2012, 12:05
Agreed. If BHO is re-elected, he will achieve his "transformation", probably permanently. Romney's prescription seems to be let's slow down the train to destruction but since we don't want to hurt anyone's feelings, we aren't going to stop it and put it in reverse.

Romney needs to get a lot more vicious, we don't need another McCain. Use hard facts, have a plan, tell it like it is and put it terms the masses can understand while simultaneously destroying Obama by any means necessary.