America Heading Towards a Collapse Worse Than 2008 AND Europe! [Archive] - Glock Talk

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callihan_44
07-17-2012, 21:11
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/america-heading-towards-collapse-worse-2008-europe-says-155504860.html

we knew this wasnt over yet

Bolster
07-17-2012, 22:22
Dollars to donuts, it won't happen until AFTER the election.

Then we can get back to blaming George Bush for all the problems in the world.

Remember, B.O. says that the private sector in the USA is "fine," that it's the pensions of the gov't employees we must worry about. That, and giving away more food stamps.

cowboy1964
07-17-2012, 22:26
You'd have to be dumber than Barney Frank to not see what's coming.

I did notice that Schiff didn't specify a time frame.

PettyOfficer
07-17-2012, 22:32
I did notice that Schiff didn't specify a time frame.

Didn't you learn anything from Nostradamus?

First rule of predictions is to never provide a timeframe.

440-some years after his death people are still believing what he predicted is coming true.

Bolster
07-17-2012, 22:42
I predict this thread will end badly.

PettyOfficer
07-17-2012, 22:47
I predict this thread will end badly.

.... Sometime in the future :)

TangoFoxtrot
07-18-2012, 03:21
.... Sometime in the future :)


....Not just sometime.... but anytime! :whistling:

kirgi08
07-18-2012, 05:47
tagged.

Bilbo Bagins
07-18-2012, 08:06
I have been hearing about that January 2013 austerity cuts in government spending coming down the pike. That is going to hurt bad, especially for those in that whole Maryland/DC/VA bubble where residence have been somewhat sheltered by the bad economy the last 4 years. Bytch about the public sector all you want, but if the Private sector is already floundering, having 15% cuts in every department including the military, and approx 2 million jobs lost will not help the overall ecomony and everyone will suffer.

The massive drought we are having will not help either. It means higher food prices, and higher fuel prices thanks to a bad corn crop and Ethanol.

Not to get too political, but things will be MUCH worse if Obama wins a 2nd term. Not that Romney is a business and economic genius, but I think he will instill confidence and he will have a better plan.

Obama wasted stimulas money on corporate pals and union work crews to build curb cuts, and repaving roads. Having that happen again in 2013 will not be good for the economy.

rwrjr
07-18-2012, 09:53
I have been hearing about that January 2013 austerity cuts in government spending coming down the pike. That is going to hurt bad, especially for those in that whole Maryland/DC/VA bubble where residence have been somewhat sheltered by the bad economy the last 4 years. Bytch about the public sector all you want, but if the Private sector is already floundering, having 15% cuts in every department including the military, and approx 2 million jobs lost will not help the overall ecomony and everyone will suffer.

Yes public sector cuts will hurt but they will be the beginning of fixing the mis-allocation of resources that's been going on for 30+ years. For every dollar spent on the public sector it must be taxed from the private sector. Or borrowed/printed which has their own issues and are really just a stealth tax. There is no free lunch. Maintaining the bloated public sector solves nothing, it's just another form of kicking the can down the road. Remember the public sector produces nothing. The public sector is largely parasitic. The public sector stifles growth and innovation. Some much smaller amount is necessary, the rest not so much. This includes defense.

It really comes down to taking your medicine now or later. The more politically palatable position is later but all that does is magnify the problem and make the correction that much more severe.

BTW, I'm in the DC area and I know that the coming cuts will negatively hurt me and mine but they must happen if we're ever going to have a chance to come out the other side and begin to grow again. The beast simply must be starved and put back into a much smaller box.

uhlawpup
07-18-2012, 09:55
Let's see here...

Dollar will be weak. We can't buy imports.

Other currencies will be strong. They will buy what we have to sell, especially food, a renewable resource.

Increase in exports will mean increased jobs for people who want to work. People who don't want to work will starve and not procreate.

Wow.

Should I be worried?

rwrjr
07-18-2012, 10:03
Other currencies will be strong. They will buy what we have to sell, especially food, a renewable resource.


Why will other currencies be strong? And why to you assume that they will have surplus currency to buy what we're selling? Do you have analysis to back up those two huge assumptions? Europe is going down the toilet, we're next. The Chinese are right behind both and Japan is DOA. When ALL of the major economies tank they will take the rest of the world with them. There will be wars over food and essential commodities/resources before we come out the other side of this mess.

Bolster
07-18-2012, 11:17
...things will be MUCH worse if Obama wins a 2nd term. Not that Romney is a business and economic genius, but I think he will instill confidence and he will have a better plan...

Compared to B.O., Romney's a qualified financial genius. Although that could be said about pretty much anyone, in comparison to B.O., who is remarkably unqualified to do just about anything, other than read a speech from a teleprompter, "appear confident," make sports analogies, and look up handy solutions in the big book of Marxism.

We have one of most economically ignorant presidents ever, and we're worried about the qualifications of his opponent, who's spent his life in finance?

PocketProtector
07-18-2012, 11:25
When OMao is kicked to the curb, the economy will turn on like a light switch.

cowboy1964
07-18-2012, 12:39
We have one of most economically ignorant presidents ever, and we're worried about the qualifications of his opponent, who's spent his life in finance?

Well said. If Romney can't win this.... biggest loser EVER.

Smacktard
07-18-2012, 16:42
When OMao is kicked to the curb, the economy will turn on like a light switch.

:rofl::rofl::rofl:


...

TangoFoxtrot
07-19-2012, 04:55
I have been hearing about that January 2013 austerity cuts in government spending coming down the pike. That is going to hurt bad, especially for those in that whole Maryland/DC/VA bubble where residence have been somewhat sheltered by the bad economy the last 4 years. Bytch about the public sector all you want, but if the Private sector is already floundering, having 15% cuts in every department including the military, and approx 2 million jobs lost will not help the overall ecomony and everyone will suffer.

The massive drought we are having will not help either. It means higher food prices, and higher fuel prices thanks to a bad corn crop and Ethanol.

Not to get too political, but things will be MUCH worse if Obama wins a 2nd term. Not that Romney is a business and economic genius, but I think he will instill confidence and he will have a better plan.

Obama wasted stimulas money on corporate pals and union work crews to build curb cuts, and repaving roads. Having that happen again in 2013 will not be good for the economy.

Not to start a political debate here, I agree with you to a point. but the fact is "BUSH" started the stimulas(socialistic) bailouts and did nothing for the economy for 8 yrs. Oh but he is always let off the hook!... and no I'm a Republican but not blind. Rant off sorry.

Bren
07-19-2012, 05:47
I just want a collapse big enough that I don't have to pay back my mortage. I don't care if it's because of the economy, zombies or an alien invasion. I like the zombie idea best.

coastal4974
07-19-2012, 06:34
The financial collapse is required for the constitution to be replaced with something that is not so restricting on a socialist based gubmint.

:wavey:

BudMan5
07-19-2012, 10:13
A couple of years ago, the Euro was worth $3.00 USC, now it's down to $1.22. Spain has announced they are out of money:

Spain out of cash (http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=42c9665068c35f167906e329565b7512&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.survivalistboards.com%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D246636&v=1&libid=1342713721604&out=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2Freign-spain-may-soon-be-over&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.survivalistboards.com%2Fforumdisplay.php%3Ff%3D119&title=The%20%22Doom%20and%20gloom%22%20du%20Jour%20-%20Survivalist%20Forum&txt=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2Freign-...y-soon-be-over&jsonp=vglnk_jsonp_13427137026803)

and the World Bank believes that Europe's crash will take down everyone:

World Bank Chief issues warning (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/18/us-worldbank-kim-idUSBRE86H17Q20120718)

and the US Post Office will default on August 1:

Wall Street Journal (http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=42c9665068c35f167906e329565b7512&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.survivalistboards.com%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D246636&v=1&libid=1342713721604&out=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10000872396390444097904577535322022316422.html%3Fmod%3 DWSJ_hppMIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.survivalistboards.com%2Fforumdisplay.php%3Ff%3D119&title=The%20%22Doom%20and%20gloom%22%20du%20Jour%20-%20Survivalist%20Forum&txt=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB1000...hatsNewsSecond&jsonp=vglnk_jsonp_13427139128468)

Anybody that doesn't actually prepare for what might happen is a fool. But it is beginning to appear more than likely that some horrendous times are coming for all us.

Everyone should read FerFal's narrative of whart happened in Argentina when their economy collapsed in 2001. He talks about what his family had to do and how bad things got when their moiney no longer bought anything:

FerFal: Surviving Economic Collapse (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=5&ved=0CGgQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.preparedsociety.com%2Fforum%2Fattachments%2Ff31%2F1300d1310754598-remember-argentina-ferfals-argentina.pdf&ei=_TAIUP3oNMi0rQHdudDfBA&usg=AFQjCNGP8O7V5TikxdR-YdFE-lydxaqogw&sig2=WgF1Frk429IhtbAcSpAqQw)

If you don't believe it can happen here, talk to any 80 year old American and ask them what the years 1930-1941 were like.

Glock30Eric
07-19-2012, 10:41
A couple of years ago, the Euro was worth $3.00 USC, now it's down to $1.22. Spain has announced they are out of money:

Spain out of cash (http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=42c9665068c35f167906e329565b7512&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.survivalistboards.com%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D246636&v=1&libid=1342713721604&out=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2Freign-spain-may-soon-be-over&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.survivalistboards.com%2Fforumdisplay.php%3Ff%3D119&title=The%20%22Doom%20and%20gloom%22%20du%20Jour%20-%20Survivalist%20Forum&txt=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2Freign-...y-soon-be-over&jsonp=vglnk_jsonp_13427137026803)

and the World Bank believes that Europe's crash will take down everyone:

World Bank Chief issues warning (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/18/us-worldbank-kim-idUSBRE86H17Q20120718)

and the US Post Office will default on August 1:

Wall Street Journal (http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=42c9665068c35f167906e329565b7512&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.survivalistboards.com%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D246636&v=1&libid=1342713721604&out=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10000872396390444097904577535322022316422.html%3Fmod%3 DWSJ_hppMIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.survivalistboards.com%2Fforumdisplay.php%3Ff%3D119&title=The%20%22Doom%20and%20gloom%22%20du%20Jour%20-%20Survivalist%20Forum&txt=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB1000...hatsNewsSecond&jsonp=vglnk_jsonp_13427139128468)

Anybody that doesn't actually prepare for what might happen is a fool. But it is beginning to appear more than likely that some horrendous times are coming for all us.

REveryone should read FerFal's narrative of whart happened in Arhentina when their economy collapsed in 2001. He talks about what his family had to do and how bad things got when their moiney noi longer bought anything:

FerFal: Surviving Economic Collapse (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=5&ved=0CGgQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.preparedsociety.com%2Fforum%2Fattachments%2Ff31%2F1300d1310754598-remember-argentina-ferfals-argentina.pdf&ei=_TAIUP3oNMi0rQHdudDfBA&usg=AFQjCNGP8O7V5TikxdR-YdFE-lydxaqogw&sig2=WgF1Frk429IhtbAcSpAqQw)

If you don't believe it can happen here, talk to any 80 year old American and ask them what the years 1930-1941 were like.

Less than 1% of Earth will listen to your message, which it is very sad.

Bilbo Bagins
07-19-2012, 11:54
Not to start a political debate here, I agree with you to a point. but the fact is "BUSH" started the stimulas(socialistic) bailouts and did nothing for the economy for 8 yrs. Oh but he is always let off the hook!... and no I'm a Republican but not blind. Rant off sorry.


I agree totally. Also if you look at the history of government bailouts of American Companies with the exception of Obama, every president who offer them where Republican.

http://www.propublica.org/special/government-bailouts

Honestly though I agree with some of it. We did almost have a complete meltdown in 2008/2009 and while money was wasted in some case on BS, some money when to the right place and prevented a total collapse.

I remember way back in 2009 though someone gave a suggestion that I still think is brilliant and would work today to stimulate the economy and lower the debt.

As a one time jolt, give every US citizen a check for One Million Dollars, tax free. Every man, woman, and child

It would cost less than $400 million dollars and its would be cheaper then most government stimulas programs.

The effect would be like a bolt of lighting. Some idiots will blow their wad and spend like crazy. Others would spend there more wisely and save. Those creative folks would start new businesses, and lanuch new inventions. Kids would have money for college education, there would be less poor people on welfare which will have a side benefit of reducing government debt.

UneasyRider
07-19-2012, 12:35
1) We have passed the PONR.
2) Prepare as best you can for a transitional economy and currency.
3) Don't fix the blame, fix the problem. We each fix our own and hope .gov does the same.

6StringGeek
07-19-2012, 12:50
As a one time jolt, give every US citizen a check for One Million Dollars, tax free. Every man, woman, and child

It would cost less than $400 million dollars and its would be cheaper then most government stimulas programs.


I am not great at math, but wouldn't it cost 311,591,917,000,000 (trillion) to give every citizen a million dollars?

tobias boon
07-19-2012, 17:36
I am not great at math, but wouldn't it cost 311,591,917,000,000 (trillion) to give every citizen a million dollars?

Ya, your math is bad. Hah no the other guys, not yours.

M1A Shooter
07-19-2012, 19:51
im pretty sure there are more than 400 people in this country.

racerford
07-19-2012, 21:01
A couple of years ago, the Euro was worth $3.00 USC, ........

This not factually correct. The Euro began trading in 1999. The lowest it has been is about 82 cents near the end of October 2000, and the high was about 1.60 in April of 2008. At no point in its trading history has come anywhere close to $3.00.

cowboy1964
07-19-2012, 21:02
If you gave everyone a million dollars, the dollar would suddenly be worth, oh I don't know, about 1/1,000,000 what it was yesterday.

arclight610
07-19-2012, 22:56
If you gave everyone a million dollars, the dollar would suddenly be worth, oh I don't know, about 1/1,000,000 what it was yesterday.

The winners would be those that received it first.

BudMan5
07-20-2012, 07:20
This not factually correct. The Euro began trading in 1999. The lowest it has been is about 82 cents near the end of October 2000, and the high was about 1.60 in April of 2008. At no point in its trading history has come anywhere close to $3.00.

I stand corrected.

But, out of my whole post, the only thing you got from it is an "I gotcha!" ?

pugman
07-20-2012, 08:25
I remember way back in 2009 though someone gave a suggestion that I still think is brilliant and would work today to stimulate the economy and lower the debt.

As a one time jolt, give every US citizen a check for One Million Dollars, tax free. Every man, woman, and child

It would cost less than $400 million dollars and its would be cheaper then most government stimulas programs.

The effect would be like a bolt of lighting. Some idiots will blow their wad and spend like crazy. Others would spend there more wisely and save. Those creative folks would start new businesses, and lanuch new inventions. Kids would have money for college education, there would be less poor people on welfare which will have a side benefit of reducing government debt.

I would love to read the argument for this - its a terrible idea. It certainly won't lower the debt because this would require the federal government to ear mark any revenue generated from this idea to paying down the debt. Controlling the money supply is an art form in which our "leaders" are the equivalent of children finger painting.

All our fiat currency has to stem from somewhere; giving people millions of dollars to spend isn't going to solve any problems and in fact will mask some real problems we have today and make the eventual collaspe this much worse.

The problem today isn't people aren't buying food or gasoline - the problem is people are buying these things with other people's money whether its in the form of loans, bailouts, entitlement programs etc. Hell, the problem isn't even there are no jobs - its people are either [insert your adjective here...but stupid, lazy, ignorant or proud all fit] to take them. McDonalds is hiring. Target is hiring. Milwaukee has lately seen a resurgence in some trade jobs like welding where I see permanent billboards up asking people to apply.

A collaspe of the federal government is inevitable at this point - why? Because there is no plan to stop it. You don't hear any discussions about cutting military spending (yet we spend more than the next 14 countries combined). We spent more in 2011 (1.63 Trillion) than China, Russia, England, France, Japan, Saudi Arabia, India, Germany, Brazil, Italy, South Korea, Australia, Canada and Turkey combined (1.422 Trillion). We outspent China alone by 230%.

You don't hear any discussions about cutting entitlement programs like Medicaid, Medicare, etc. On the contrary, Obamacare is about expanding these programs.

You hear about budget line items which are insane. $750 million dollars to Islamic organizations in the middle east to build/rebuild/remodel mosques the state department said was needed to build repore?

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/flashpoint/2011/07/how-they-spend-your-money-in-troubled-times

Another thread just a while ago pointed out the military spent $5 billion dollars in 8 years on a camo pattern it decided it doesn't want to implement.

Don't worry: the Fed and congress will do whatever it can to maintain control or at least the illusion of it. In light of a collaspe I can see they discussing or even implementing the nationalization of services and companies.

As I tell my wife, I wonder what the White House will look like on fire?

cowboy1964
07-20-2012, 09:10
QE3 will happen in the next year, probably by the end of this year. Probably probably before the election so the stock market will jump and make people feel better.

kirgi08
07-20-2012, 09:22
:tempted: The above is unknown,however though the time/date is uncertain.The US has been.......... .'08. :sad:

racerford
07-20-2012, 12:00
I stand corrected.

But, out of my whole post, the only thing you got from it is an "I gotcha!" ?

Not an "I gotcha". It was not a typo, or spelling, or grammar error, and not a slight error, it was a gross misstatement. I didn't want others to believe what you said was true.

If I had other comments to make, I would have.

Everyone should prepare potential future situations to the extent they can. A personal financial issue is probably most likely thing to happen to your family. Of course you should prepare.

pugman
07-20-2012, 12:03
QE3 will happen in the next year, probably by the end of this year. Probably probably before the election so the stock market will jump and make people feel better.

And it will have no effect.

UneasyRider
07-20-2012, 13:07
And it will have no effect.

Ah but it will! It will tell the world that we don't intend to pay any of our debts (they already know if they have a calculator), we are going to inflate them away...

pugman
07-24-2012, 05:18
Ah but it will! It will tell the world that we don't intend to pay any of our debts (they already know if they have a calculator), we are going to inflate them away...

Inflate is a definite possibility; sovereign default a second

I've pondered with the fact the government might just regulate it away - say raise the age of drawing SS to 75 or even 80 (social security is 20% of federal spending)

This has been a planned exodus for decades though. As someone who had immediate family in Congress he has always told me there is no plan.

UneasyRider
07-24-2012, 06:19
Inflate is a definite possibility; sovereign default a second

I've pondered with the fact the government might just regulate it away - say raise the age of drawing SS to 75 or even 80 (social security is 20% of federal spending)

This has been a planned exodus for decades though. As someone who had immediate family in Congress he has always told me there is no plan.

We borrow 50% of what we spend. The states are a financial mess and cities are declaring bankruptcy. Add to that personal finances not doing so well on average and businesses closing up with the surviving ones doing reasonalby ok but not providing enough jobs and having an insecure future.

There is only one solution that solves all of it, inflation. It corrects the national debt and federal spending, controls labor costs, fixes the housing market and personal debt problems, business survive and new ones start up without taking down the banks. It's great... except if it's not wage driven... and it won't be, we will all be poor together for a while.

It is inevitable.

Restless28
07-26-2012, 05:29
We borrow 50% of what we spend. The states are a financial mess and cities are declaring bankruptcy. Add to that personal finances not doing so well on average and businesses closing up with the surviving ones doing reasonalby ok but not providing enough jobs and having an insecure future.

There is only one solution that solves all of it, inflation. It corrects the national debt and federal spending, controls labor costs, fixes the housing market and personal debt problems, business survive and new ones start up without taking down the banks. It's great... except if it's not wage driven... and it won't be, we will all be poor together for a while.

It is inevitable.

Truth. 2013 will finally wake people up, IMO.

bdcochran
07-26-2012, 08:55
My father was a Captain in the Navy and designed nuclear reactors for subs. One day he asked some carrier people why they thought that a nuclear powered aircraft carrier was so good. They responded that the ship could sail around the world without docking. Then my father challenged how you refueled the carrier planes because the carrier's capacity would be exhausted in two days and you would have to rely upon tankers. Duh.

When you have a diesel fueled Red Chinese sub surprise a carrier or a Russian flier overfly a carrier and send down pictures by email in real time to the carrier, you wonder about the thinking power in the military. Your carriers will sink within hours of the start of the next war.

How hard would it have been to go to Cathartt and ask that company to design a military uniform that worked?

hotpig
07-26-2012, 09:23
Yes public sector cuts will hurt but they will be the beginning of fixing the mis-allocation of resources that's been going on for 30+ years. For every dollar spent on the public sector it must be taxed from the private sector. Or borrowed/printed which has their own issues and are really just a stealth tax. There is no free lunch. Maintaining the bloated public sector solves nothing, it's just another form of kicking the can down the road. Remember the public sector produces nothing. The public sector is largely parasitic. The public sector stifles growth and innovation. Some much smaller amount is necessary, the rest not so much. This includes defense.

It really comes down to taking your medicine now or later. The more politically palatable position is later but all that does is magnify the problem and make the correction that much more severe.

BTW, I'm in the DC area and I know that the coming cuts will negatively hurt me and mine but they must happen if we're ever going to have a chance to come out the other side and begin to grow again. The beast simply must be starved and put back into a much smaller box.

I have a 400k budget at my Fire District that saves the private sector nearly 9 million in insurance premiums alone. We are rural/suburban or that number would be much higher. Plus there is that saving life and property thing but tea extremists say there is no value in that if it is not their life or property.

After 35 years I will have a ok pension in exchange for those years of low pay and long hours. No it will not be six figures like the tea people say public sector janitors make. (Really are you stupid enough to believe that janitors make that much?)

My pension plan is in good shape because when the District took the money from my check they put it into the pension account. When the County sent the tax levy check for the pension. They put it in the pension plan.

Many of these pension plans are in trouble because the Government spent the pension money instead of putting it in the pension fund.

quake
07-26-2012, 10:34
I have a 400k budget at my Fire District that saves the private sector nearly 9 million in insurance premiums alone.
Very likely & completely logical. An "ounce of prevention" kind of thing; makes complete sense.

...Plus there is that saving life and property thing but tea extremists say there is no value in that if it is not their life or property.
Yes; there is no value in saving life or property. I've seen that in Tea Party literature. :upeyes:

No sane person that I've ever heard, argues against having publicly-funded fire depts, police, etc. "TEA" is simply "taxed enough already"; and I personally believe we are. I know that I am. More than 40 cents of every dollar that comes in our door goes out in some form of tax, "fee", "license", etc; all confiscatory mandates from one level of government or another. And a confiscatory mandate not based on wrong-doing is a tax; no way around it.

No value in saving life or property. Seriously.

...After 35 years I will have a ok pension in exchange for those years of low pay and long hours. No it will not be six figures like the tea people say public sector janitors make. (Really are you stupid enough to believe that janitors make that much?)
Again with outrageous statements about others. Who has made the claim that government janitors average more than $100k salary? Please share the link or quote.

I can't speak for florida, but can about arkansas. Avg public-employee income here is $38831, more than 17% higher than the $33180 average of the total population at large. The real pay difference is much more skewed than that, because that overall average includes the more than 175,000 state & local employees at the higher average, as well as more than 40,000 federal employees who also average more than their private-sector counterparts. Those numbers aren't "public" vs "private", they're "public" vs "public and private combined". If we take out the 175,661 state & local public employees and the more than 40,000 federal employess at their higher salaries, the actual private-sector average would be shown to be lower still.

Nobody is saying you're personally overpaid. But the mathematical fact is that public (ie, government) employees do on average make more money, and have better pensions, than private sector employees do on average.

bdcochran
07-26-2012, 10:51
I have a younger brother who voted for Obama in the last election. He will not be voting for him again.

He now casts a pox on all politicians.

In a surprising conversation, he related what I have been saying for years:

1. sinking funds and dedicated funds have been raided for years by municipalities and the impending municipal bks will be happening in the next 3-4 years.
2. the real opponent to bk courts favoring municipal retirees (not part of social security) is the few companies that provided municipal bond insurance/guarantees. They will spend the necessary $20 million and more to make sure that retirees do not receive a bk preference.
3. the next bk filing will be by Oakland, CA. Yeah, everyone says Oakland is a cesspool, but its bonds are guaranteed whereas Vallejo's were not. It will take some time before the court says to CALPERS (the public retirement fund) that retirees have no priority.
4. After that, cities like Los Angeles (which has a puny shortfall of $500 million each year that is closed by borrowing from dedicated funds and failing to repair the street, will make the decision to go bk.

In the real world, whether you were a dedicated public employee for 35 years, worked for GE for 35 years, put money in SEPs and Keoughs, you are going to be screwed.

The last guy to speak the truth about the economy was Walter Mondale when the polls said that he was going to lose. He said that the country could not afford everything and that priorities had to be set.

Can you name one politician since Harry Truman who didn't profit from public service and told people the real scoop?

I am retiring this year. If I vote, it will be for the politician who delivers the goods to me.:wavey:

rwrjr
07-26-2012, 11:41
I have a 400k budget at my Fire District that saves the private sector nearly 9 million in insurance premiums alone. We are rural/suburban or that number would be much higher. Plus there is that saving life and property thing but tea extremists say there is no value in that if it is not their life or property.

After 35 years I will have a ok pension in exchange for those years of low pay and long hours. No it will not be six figures like the tea people say public sector janitors make. (Really are you stupid enough to believe that janitors make that much?)

Not sure if your response is directed at me or just people you disagree with in general. I belong to no party, tea or otherwise. I'm an independent libertarian. I don't have much to say about your $400k saving $9mil because A) I have no way to verify and B) there is no discussion of alternatives that may be even less costly over time. I've seen your posts on GT over the years and you've always appeared honorable in your posts so I'll take your numbers at face value.

Pretty sure I never talked about janitors or their salaries. You've given one example of your situation. Your situation is not representative of the public sector as a whole. By that thinking, even if a janitor was making six figures he wouldn't be representative of the entire public sector either.

My point was simply that the public sector has grown entirely too fast and too big. We can argue about what should be cut and by how much but going in most will agree that it's too big. If you don't then we don't have much to discuss.

My pension plan is in good shape because when the District took the money from my check they put it into the pension account. When the County sent the tax levy check for the pension. They put it in the pension plan.

Many of these pension plans are in trouble because the Government spent the pension money instead of putting it in the pension fund.

Glad to hear that your pension wasn't raided like those for many municipal employees. Another trick they use is to project 8% returns year after year when it's clearly not possible to realize such returns. When the money runs out there's going to be a whole lot of pissed off people. The battle will be on what to do about it. The politicians and public sector will want to extract more via taxes to cover the shortfall. The private sector won't be so keen on this idea since we've been raped too and nobody is looking out for our interests because we are simply a group of individuals with no organization or structure with which to apply pressure. In the end you can't get blood from a stone so I expect this to end poorly for everybody.

quake
07-26-2012, 11:43
...In the real world, whether you were a dedicated public employee for 35 years, worked for GE for 35 years, put money in SEPs and Keoughs, you are going to be screwed...
Unfortunately, I agree completely. America's phenomenal productivity has been a golden goose (if anyone remembers that fable anymore), for over a century now; both for us here in the usa and for much of the world as well. The golden goose's eggs were originally - and gratefully - collected at the natural rate that they were produced. Then around 50-60 years ago, somebody decided it might be good to shake the goose occasionally to see if we could occasionally get an extra egg or two.

Around 30-35 years ago, someone brilliant decided it was a good idea to stick a shopvac hose up the goose's rear end to speed up production; basically living on tomorrow's eggs today.

We're (imo) now near the point where the goose is about to be cut open to see if we can maybe dig one more egg out of her.

Once the goose is truly gutted, there are no more golden eggs to be had; not for a long time. And once that magical supply of free golden eggs is cut off, there will likely be a whole lot of former egg-suckers becoming suddenly scared and angry.


I may have been lucky that we encountered our own personal economic shtf about ten years ago. My company was bought out by a multinational, my old-style pension disappeared, and within a year I found myself unemployed and looking at 50 years old coming on fast. It made me reboot aggresively; and I honestly think now that it was a good thing in the long run as I genuinely believe that I was granted an early start toward my own recovery, whereas a lot of folks (imo) are likely to be finding themselves in that position in the not-too-distant future.

Their recovery may well be harder than ours was then, simply because there may be more of them in that boat simultaneously. Then again, like so many topics, it falls under the "I wouldn't at all mind being wrong" category. :dunno:

Dexters
07-26-2012, 11:46
but tea extremists say there is no value in that if it is not their life or property.



Who says that?

I think you are thinking about libertarians.

But even libertarians don't have that 'their property' tag line.

Dexters
07-26-2012, 11:53
In the real world, whether you were a dedicated public employee for 35 years, worked for GE for 35 years, put money in SEPs and Keoughs, you are going to be screwed.



There are few people who work for private companies and end up with a good defined pension.

First you have to work for a good company that will be around to pay you your pension and benefits. If you retire now it needs to be solvent for the next 40 years.

Then you have to work a long time 35 years & those years need to be until retirement age or you don't get much.

Now most companies only have 401K plans and they aren't that generous as if it were a defined pension. And, many people don't max out their contributions.

wjv
07-26-2012, 13:46
Schiff and a few others made some very specific predictions as in "next 12 months" or "by summer 2011" which all crashed and burned.

All that did was ruin their credibility.

I think most here agree that something is coming. . The main question is 6 months or 6 years? No one can really tell for sure.

We don't even know if it will be a "long slow" slide or an "off the cliff" crash.

The people running the governments are very good at manipulating the books to keep things running for X more months/years. .

Barring a trigger event such as a Middle East war or a mega terrorist attack, I's say the signs to look for are:

- Government "nationalizing" private pension plans
..(for your own protection)
- Limits on cash withdrawals from banks
..(for your own protection)
- rapid food/commodity inflation while real assets
..(homes, cars and such) crash in value

cowboy1964
07-27-2012, 00:19
My father was a Captain in the Navy and designed nuclear reactors for subs. One day he asked some carrier people why they thought that a nuclear powered aircraft carrier was so good. They responded that the ship could sail around the world without docking. Then my father challenged how you refueled the carrier planes because the carrier's capacity would be exhausted in two days and you would have to rely upon tankers. Duh.


And if the carrier itself was petroleum powered you'd need probably five times the refueling that they need for the aircraft.

Restless28
07-27-2012, 05:36
Schiff and a few others made some very specific predictions as in "next 12 months" or "by summer 2011" which all crashed and burned.

All that did was ruin their credibility.

I think most here agree that something is coming. . The main question is 6 months or 6 years? No one can really tell for sure.

We don't even know if it will be a "long slow" slide or an "off the cliff" crash.

The people running the governments are very good at manipulating the books to keep things running for X more months/years. .

Barring a trigger event such as a Middle East war or a mega terrorist attack, I's say the signs to look for are:

- Government "nationalizing" private pension plans
..(for your own protection)
- Limits on cash withdrawals from banks
..(for your own protection)
- rapid food/commodity inflation while real assets
..(homes, cars and such) crash in value

That's an excellent analysis.

rj1939
07-27-2012, 14:03
I think many people have been amazed at the ability to keep the ponzi scheme going.

UneasyRider
07-27-2012, 14:50
I think many people have been amazed at the ability to keep the ponzi scheme going.

That would be me you are talking about. It's the blindness of the general public and the world that has fooled me.

pugman
07-27-2012, 15:02
We borrow 50% of what we spend. The states are a financial mess and cities are declaring bankruptcy. Add to that personal finances not doing so well on average and businesses closing up with the surviving ones doing reasonalby ok but not providing enough jobs and having an insecure future.

There is only one solution that solves all of it, inflation. It corrects the national debt and federal spending, controls labor costs, fixes the housing market and personal debt problems, business survive and new ones start up without taking down the banks. It's great... except if it's not wage driven... and it won't be, we will all be poor together for a while.

It is inevitable.

You and I agree. Just yesterday my employer (a Fortune 50 medical insurance provider) just had a series of layoffs.

I posted somewhere else I feel the rug will be pulled out within 5 years

have pensions, than private sector employees do on average.

I corrected it for you.

How many private sectors have a defined pension? roughly 87% of public sector workers do compared to 13% of the private sector; and many of those private sector pensions aren't the traditional defined ones but contribution based. And the first person who says public sector workers are paid less and the pension makes up for it haven't looked at real world numbers.

Just1More
07-28-2012, 02:25
I agree totally. Also if you look at the history of government bailouts of American Companies with the exception of Obama, every president who offer them where Republican.

http://www.propublica.org/special/government-bailouts


I remember way back in 2009 though someone gave a suggestion that I still think is brilliant and would work today to stimulate the economy and lower the debt.

As a one time jolt, give every US citizen a check for One Million Dollars, tax free. Every man, woman, and child

It would cost less than $400 million dollars and its would be cheaper then most government stimulas programs.


Your math is WAY off. That would only cover 400 people.

pugman
07-28-2012, 07:31
Your math is WAY off. That would only cover 400 people.

But this is American politics...as long as its the "right" 400 people.

rj1939
07-28-2012, 17:12
That would be me you are talking about. It's the blindness of the general public and the world that has fooled me.
Seems that some people are just too scared to consider things coming to an abrupt change. One thing is sure, we are closer than ever.

TangoFoxtrot
07-29-2012, 04:24
That would be me you are talking about. It's the blindness of the general public and the world that has fooled me.


That is because most people live in their own little bubble and only see what gives them instant gratification. Hell most people don't even know whats going on in the rest of the world.

BudMan5
07-29-2012, 17:00
I would suspect that the stock market will take a severe downturn tomorrow morning.

It seems like every time it is up (like Thursday and Friday last week) then a sell off occurs while everyone takes their profit.

One of my great fears is that one of those doewn turns is not going to stop, it will just keep going down until the bank runs start, then a "bank holiday" is declared (meaning all funds are frozen including ATMs and credit cards) and then the Fed starts massive 24/7 printing of currency to keep things going..
I am buying food like mad and trying hard to convert my savings account to silver. Not because I think i will need it to buy things after the crash starts but as a means of transporting what little wealth I have from the dollar today to whatever replaces it in the future.

The LIBOR scandal involves $350 TRILLION dollars in debt. There is no where near that much currency even printed let alone enough to satisfy the total debt.

We are living in interesting times

racerford
07-29-2012, 17:13
.....
The LIBOR scandal involves $350 TRILLION dollars in debt. There is no where near that much currency even printed let alone enough to satisfy the total debt.

We are living in interesting times

I don't think you fully understand the LIBOR scandal. It is a scandal about rate reporting to alter the reported LIBOR rate which affects many loans. It is not about bad loans passed as good ones. The debt is not at risk or this. Might cause changes in how it is set/ Might it cause rates to rise of fall? yes. It is not a reason for default. It might be a reason for a lot of lawsuits and penalties.

cowboy1964
07-29-2012, 17:52
I suspect the stock market will be down tomorrow. Or up.

pugman
07-30-2012, 16:47
I would suspect that the stock market will take a severe downturn tomorrow morning.


We are living in interesting times

Well it ended down just over 2 points...but if you were a prophet you would probably be in the White House right now.