David Stockman explains EVERYTHING [Archive] - Glock Talk

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beforeobamabans
07-23-2012, 13:04
You had better read this article, the whole article, if you want to know what's really going on.

http://teapartyeconomist.com/2012/07/20/the-most-important-article-on-the-economy-in-20-years/

brickboy240
07-23-2012, 13:11
Peter Schiff has been saying the same thing since about 2006.

Everyone on cable news blew him off as some sort of doomsayer tinfoil hatter.

- brickboy240

beforeobamabans
07-23-2012, 13:16
Yes, Peter Schiff, Harry Dent and now Reagan's former budget director. The chorus grows. I think they're right.

brickboy240
07-23-2012, 13:19
Wasn't Glenn Beck basically ran out of Fox News Channel for saying things like this?

Ok...so he SAYS he left all on his own, but it was very obvious that many there were squeamish about his not-so-sunny predictions.

-brickboy240

beforeobamabans
07-23-2012, 13:29
Don't know if he was run out because of it but yes, he was on the same (right) track.

Interesting factoid: This weekend, Spain's 10 yr treasury went over 7.5% ( in case you don't pay attention to these things, ours is at 1.4%-for now). It is mathematically impossible to borrow at 7% for 10 years and pay it back, so Spain either defaults or cons the world into the biggest bailout yet.

Just imagine when the day comes that the markets realize we won't be able to pay amd our rates return to those of 1980-yes we had interest rates of 20%.

brickboy240
07-23-2012, 13:35
Italy and France are not too far behind Spain...are they?

I would not be shocked to see the Euro come apart before the end of the year.

The only countries that are still doing reasonably ok in Europe are Switzerland and Norway. Do you know that they have in common?

- brickboy240

JBnTX
07-23-2012, 14:46
Assuming everything in that article will come true, where should a person put their life savings so as to preserve their buying power?

My house is paid off and I have no debt, but all my retirement savings is in the stock (35%) and bond (65%) markets.

brickboy240
07-23-2012, 14:53
After seeing almost half of my 401k disappear in an 8 year span (once in 2000....again in 200*) I have no idea.

One thing is for sure, the more hard assets you have...the better. Think beans, band-aids and bullets. You cannot eat gold and with the soon to come inflation...stocking up now does not seem nearly as crazy as it used to be.

The "preppers" get a bad rap, but if you look around...the global bankers are surely "prepping" for an upcoming global financial meltdown. Shouldn't we be doing the same?

What we will most likely see will not be a Mad Max type scenario but a slow slide downhill. If you are debt free, living below your means and stocked up on hard assets you will weather it better than most people.

Think about it....90% of the people around you are not prepared when a hurricane takes the electricity out for a day or two. What do you think they will do when prices on food and energy starts to climb...along with interest on what they owe?

-- brickboy240

beforeobamabans
07-23-2012, 18:44
Assuming everything in that article will come true, where should a person put their life savings so as to preserve their buying power?

My house is paid off and I have no debt, but all my retirement savings is in the stock (35%) and bond (65%) markets.

For a conservative investor like you, you should take profits and go to cash. Your priority is to preserve principle. You've been taught your whole life that bonds are a conservative, safe investment. But, we are coming to the end of a 30 yr bull market in bonds. Our 10 yr T-bill set an all time record today hitting 1.4% because for now, its viewed as a flight to safety. But with the way this administration has devalued the dollar and outright diluted it by running the printing presses full blast, it is only a matter of time before interest rates rise which means your bond price will fall and you lose money. Stocks will get a temporary blast upward if Romney is elected but then the market will realize that nothing has been resolved and come back down. If Obama is re-elected and we go over the "fiscal cliff", we will revisit the March 2009 lows on the S&P 500 of 666.

As an aggressive investor, I am levered short the bond market, the stock market and long the VIX index, which is the volatility index. So, I am putting my money where my mouth is. The worse it gets, the richer I get. If we have a nice long stock market rally, I will lose my, ahem, shirt.

oldgraywolf
07-23-2012, 18:58
Italy and France are not too far behind Spain...are they?

I would not be shocked to see the Euro come apart before the end of the year.

The only countries that are still doing reasonably ok in Europe are Switzerland and Norway. Do you know that they have in common?

- brickboy240

Read the second part of Steve Forbes' column in the latest Forbes Magazine, very interesting.

Little Joe
07-23-2012, 22:56
Here are a few more of his interviews I have saved.

http://truth-out.org/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=6204:david-stockman-on-crony-capitalism

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/13278

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505125_162-57389481/why-david-stockman-isnt-buying-it/

maxsnafu
07-24-2012, 07:24
Assuming everything in that article will come true, where should a person put their life savings so as to preserve their buying power?

My house is paid off and I have no debt, but all my retirement savings is in the stock (35%) and bond (65%) markets.

JBnTX, beforeobamabans has given you VERY GOOD advice. Ignore it at your peril.

JBnTX
07-24-2012, 07:36
For a conservative investor like you, you should take profits and go to cash. Your priority is to preserve principle. You've been taught your whole life that bonds are a conservative, safe investment. But, we are coming to the end of a 30 yr bull market in bonds. Our 10 yr T-bill set an all time record today hitting 1.4% because for now, its viewed as a flight to safety. But with the way this administration has devalued the dollar and outright diluted it by running the printing presses full blast, it is only a matter of time before interest rates rise which means your bond price will fall and you lose money. Stocks will get a temporary blast upward if Romney is elected but then the market will realize that nothing has been resolved and come back down. If Obama is re-elected and we go over the "fiscal cliff", we will revisit the March 2009 lows on the S&P 500 of 666.

As an aggressive investor, I am levered short the bond market, the stock market and long the VIX index, which is the volatility index. So, I am putting my money where my mouth is. The worse it gets, the richer I get. If we have a nice long stock market rally, I will lose my, ahem, shirt.

Thanks!

ALL of my friends are telling me the same thing.

JBnTX
07-24-2012, 07:37
JBnTX, beforeobamabans has given you VERY GOOD advice. Ignore it at your peril.

You're right.
His advice won't be ignored.

barbedwiresmile
07-24-2012, 07:41
JB, it is difficult for me to encapsulate, from scratch, and in the medium of a web forum, how deeply corrupt and manipulated the capital markets are right now. For you to be fully vested in equities and bonds is a very dangerous position to be in given your horizon.

Those who are deeply attached to the status quo are in for shocking, gut-wrenching change as both their financial and psychological worlds push closer and closer to collapse.

As a side-note, I just read an article about Goldman's latest "muppet" assault -- this time urging their retail clients to go long on Spanish, Italian, and Irish bonds as their prop desk was selling short. One literally cannot go a single DAY without reading multiple headlines on this type of manipulation.

pugman
07-24-2012, 08:27
"The only thing I think you can conclude is preservation is the only thing you are about as an investor. Forget about yield. Forget about return. Just keep yourself liquid and preserve your capital, because you canít predict the day when, as I say, the great margin call in the sky comes down"

In the end it will be who owns physical assets and who doesn't. Fiat currency is just that...the paper in your wallet is only worth as much as the next fool willing to take it. Capital won't mean anything.

I still say this is avoidable. However, no one has the sand in Congress to tell it like it is...and then act like they say it is. This will be our downfall - the eventually failure of the Federal government is the most predictable train wreck in history - the key is timing.

I will go on record and say the whole thing should unravel within the next five years. Four more years of Obama and we will be over $20 Trillion in advertised debt - not that Romney is some sort of savior.

To Brickboy's B's I always add a 4th: Books.

kirgi08
07-24-2012, 09:05
Food and/or the means ta produce it.Cash is fine,you can't eat it though.'08.

JBnTX
07-24-2012, 10:41
JB, it is difficult for me to encapsulate, from scratch, and in the medium of a web forum, how deeply corrupt and manipulated the capital markets are right now. For you to be fully vested in equities and bonds is a very dangerous position to be in given your horizon.

Those who are deeply attached to the status quo are in for shocking, gut-wrenching change as both their financial and psychological worlds push closer and closer to collapse.

As a side-note, I just read an article about Goldman's latest "muppet" assault -- this time urging their retail clients to go long on Spanish, Italian, and Irish bonds as their prop desk was selling short. One literally cannot go a single DAY without reading multiple headlines on this type of manipulation.


I'll be making changes very soon.

brickboy240
07-24-2012, 11:56
What amazes me is how many people are acting as if nothing bad is coming soon and everything is normal and we are just in a "rough patch" right now and will come out of it soon. We always do. In fact...we are America....too big to fail.

That is the sentiment I get from many friends and family members. They think their way of life and their 401k will never change. They also think I am a nut for keeping my assets liquid and living way below my means and stocking up on all sorts of hard goods.

I am pretty sure that the Romans thought "this could never end" and the Greeks of 10-15 years ago thought the same thing.

- brickboy240

barbedwiresmile
07-24-2012, 12:37
What amazes me is how many people are acting as if nothing bad is coming soon and everything is normal ...

It is amazing. I'm at the point in discussing theses issues where if someone doesnt see that printing money is theft of property, and chooses to be completely ignorant of the rampant fraud and manipulation, then someone more patient than I will have to give them an economics education.

PS- JB, I'm glad you are taking a look at these things.

cowboy1964
07-24-2012, 12:43
I'm still in select stocks (Apple, for example) but at some point will move everything to cash. The problem is the dollar will eventually tank what with inflation and all so even cash will be a net loser.

beforeobamabans
07-24-2012, 13:25
I'm still in select stocks (Apple, for example) but at some point will move everything to cash. The problem is the dollar will eventually tank what with inflation and all so even cash will be a net loser.

Hyperinflation is certainly a possibility at some point in time but all the evidence staring us in the face right now is that we are entering a protracted period of deflation. (read Harry Dent, for example) There is such a slack in demand that even 0% interest rates and massive expansion of money supply (those things that in the past have create inflation) can't reinflate the bubble. In this scenario (which this generation has never faced before), your cash becomes more valuable because it will buy more goods in the future. Unfortunately, debt also becomes worth more and harder to pay off. This scenario is extremely difficult to correct and is what Bernacke is deathly afraid of.

As for Apple, we shall see at 4:15 today.

brickboy240
07-24-2012, 15:18
The other crazy thing about looking at any sort of investment right now, is that you really cannot look at the charts that the brokers and salesmen will give you on the investments they are selling.

For example, many mutual funds I am in, send out brochures and prospectus that show what a 10k investment in their fund did in the last 10 years. Well...that might look wonderful, but the problem is....the NEXT 10 years will most likely look NOTHING like the LAST 10 years.

I lost almost 40% of my 401k once in 2000 and again in 2008. Looking at the mutual fund company's shiny brochure...they TELL me that if I invest X amount in their fund...by my retirement year, I should have Y amount.

No way....not even CLOSE. Especially if this fund is going to lose almost half of its worth, twice, within 10 years.

Sure...many got wealthy by investing in certain mutual funds and for those that retired in the last 10-15 years...good for you. The mutual fund world and stock market made you a tidy sum for retirement.

HOWEVER....we will not be that lucky. The NEXT 10 years (..or 15 or 20) will not have the same gains and progression as they saw in the 80s and 90s. Not at the rate things are going right now.

So..yes...where to put one's money is a tricky thing. I am having a really hard time, looking at a mutual fund's past performance, because our future looks shakier than anything we saw in the 80s, 90s or 2000s.

Again...its beans, band-aids and bullets for me. I have had enough of the Wall Street casino. Have fun with it.

-brickboy240

beforeobamabans
07-24-2012, 16:13
The mutual fund industry was built on the back of the creation of 401K accounts subsidized by employers in an age when the stock market went up every year. Novices were taught to "buy and hold" and all about " dollar cost averaging. This worked great in the 80s and 90s but doesn't work in the market we have today. The stock market has become a casino, populated with day traders, arbitragers and option strategies. If you buy a "long" today, you better protect it with an option going the other way or at a minimum, a stop loss. Buy and hold is dead money.

beforeobamabans
07-24-2012, 16:48
i'm still in select stocks (apple, for example)

as for apple, we shall see at 4:15 today.

Ouch! AAPL is without question the best performing company (I said company, not stock) in the world. And yet, it gets taken apart in after hours after reporting earnings that were fantastic but missed "expectations". And, it still has a bright future, obviously. I might even buy some at $550.

Today was the third day in a row of triple digit losses in the Dow. With our top stock getting spanked in after hours trading, are we looking at a 500 point down day tomorrow?