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glock39
08-11-2012, 09:13
The possibility of either a deliberate EMP attack or a solar storm taking out the power grid seems to be back in the news. For a worst case scenario, I would recommend the book "One Second After" by William Forstchen. However, this book presupposes that the US was hit by three EMP weapons simultaneously (to blanket the entire country), and by enemies who also took out Europe, Japan, Australia and anyone else who could have helped America rebuild. It also supposes that all post 1970's vehicles and electronic equipment would be permanently destroyed.


But what about the somewhat more likely possibility of a limited EMP attack? What if, for example, a terrorist group launches one nuke that triggers an EMP effect over half the eastern seaboard?


Now, the good news would be that most of the food growing regions of the country would be safe, we'd still have the infrastructure to deliver food and drinking water to the east coast, the direct loss of life would be in the thousands rather than in the millions.


The bad news? The entire US economy would be wiped out. Tens of millions of people would be in danger of dying if they weren't immediately helped by the rest of the country. It might take years to get electric service completely resorted to the east coast. Untold economic infrastructure (think every small business on the east coast that depends on a computer) would be wiped out. Millions of displaced workers would swamp the rest of the country, hoping that any state that still has electricity would also have jobs. Those remaining in east coast cities would face daily riots. Almost all overseas military operations would have to be shut down, because the troops would be needed at home. Think hurricane Katrina x 10.


Now, all this isn't nearly as scary as Forstchen's prediction of 90% of the population dying within a year. But, even aside from a US nuclear retaliation, any group the killed 90% of the US population would face opposition from everyone else on the planet who was afraid that they might be next. Whereas knocking out half of the US power grid would probably be applauded by the United Nations (just as soon as they found another air conditioned building to meet in).

LongGun1
08-11-2012, 09:45
From my research..

..you could affect the majority of the CONUS with just one HEMP.

IMO...it would be the best "bang-for-the-buck" for one delivery vehicle..

(for example... a freighter approaching or in a US port launching something similar to a SCUD)..

..combined with a single nuclear warhead..

(& the less efficient/less sophisticated designs are stated to produce more of a Compton Recoil Effect when detonated at altitude ...approx 240 to 320 miles AGL)


IIRC...The Russians have stated they could induce 200 kv/m at ground level with their HEMP..

..while our actual Cold War testing only went to 50 kv/m..

..& IMO ...our increasingly aged & overloaded electrical infrastructure..

..combined with increasingly more susceptible (to EMP) electronics/microelectronics/microcomputers..

..make an HEMP strike attractive to those who would like to cripple the USA.

LongGun1
08-11-2012, 10:31
BTW....just watched this trailer..

http://www.moviefanatic.com/2012/08/red-dawn-trailer-drops-were-the-wolverines/

..looks like the aggressor leads with an EMP or HEMP

cowboy1964
08-11-2012, 14:44
I think you need a high altitude EMP in order to affect an extremely large area? Non-nation state terrorists won't have access to an ICBM.

LongGun1
08-11-2012, 15:42
I think you need a high altitude EMP in order to affect an extremely large area? Non-nation state terrorists won't have access to an ICBM.


Like I stated ....an ICBM is not necessary!


IMO....A small group of terrorists with a hijacked freighter (think mobile, stealthy, improvised launching platform) & something similar to a modified SCUD with a lower tech nuclear warhead.

They approach or pull into a harbor, launch from the hold & then commit mass suicide (& destroy evidence of origin) by blowing the freighter into bits..

Almost no warning...& the missile would soon be at altitude during boost..(the optimum altitude desired for detonation would go by very quickly at sub-orbital velocities)

...by the time we realized what was transpiring it might all be over! :shocked:


Think....same type of 'out-of-the-box' planning, studied deviousness & asymmetrical warfare of 9-11-01...

...but on a much larger scale! :whistling:

glock39
08-11-2012, 15:42
Actually, I'm more worried about a terrorist launching a SCUD missile from the deck of a freighter just outside US waters than I am about a more high tech Soviet weapon.

And the goal might be to simply destroy the US economy, rather than to kill most of the population. Wipe out half the power grid, and the US might not launch an all out nuclear counter strike (especially if it was a terrorist group rather than a country that claimed responsibility). Let half the US population starve to death for want of electricity and there would be a nuclear counter strike.

kirgi08
08-11-2012, 15:49
:popcorn:

UneasyRider
08-11-2012, 17:20
The maps that I have seen show Chicago (sorry Obama) as the best place to drop a single nuke over.

With our economy on the edge the way that it is I would think that one dropped on the west coast would do the most damage to our economy and exports and by not doing too much damage to the heartland we could produce food for the people who bomb us. The east coast would be left alone because the lifting the burden of liberals from our backs would be of to great a benefit to us and that's not what our enemies would want.

cowboy1964
08-11-2012, 17:59
With our economy on the edge the way that it is I would think that one dropped on the west coast would do the most damage to our economy and exports and by not doing too much damage to the heartland we could produce food for the people who bomb us. The east coast would be left alone because the lifting the burden of liberals from our backs would be of to great a benefit to us and that's not what our enemies would want.

The left coast is just as liberal as the east.

cowboy1964
08-11-2012, 18:03
You would also need a rather large and sophisticated nuke and missile. We would know which nation(s) were complicit in helping. Said nation(s) would cease to exist shortly thereafter.

Paul53
08-11-2012, 18:50
and you think the Chinese are going to stand by watching all their assets destroyed without stepping in?

UneasyRider
08-11-2012, 19:00
The left coast is just as liberal as the east.

Yes but the ones who make the decisions are on the east coast. Politicians that is, they are a liability to efficiency in war or peace and our enemies would be smart to leave them in place.

UneasyRider
08-11-2012, 19:05
and you think the Chinese are going to stand by watching all their assets destroyed without stepping in?

We owe China about 1.5 trillion, our corporations have invested much more than that in China by moving their manufacturing there. The Chinese would be blessed if the U.S. gave them a reason to nationalize our interests in China.

China looks at us as food and raw material producers long term, short term we still invent things and have some value but not enough for them to shed a tear over.

DJ Niner
08-11-2012, 22:01
You would also need a rather large and sophisticated nuke and missile. We would know which nation(s) were complicit in helping. Said nation(s) would cease to exist shortly thereafter.Even if that nation sent out an urgent message, shortly after the launch but BEFORE the detonation, saying their launch codes had been compromised by a few rogue officers working with terrorists, and therefore this was NOT a nation-state attack on the U.S., but rather a terrorist attack?

Our press and the lefty/libs (but, I repeat myself) would raise such a fuss that there would be no military response at all.

glock39
08-12-2012, 07:38
You would also need a rather large and sophisticated nuke and missile. We would know which nation(s) were complicit in helping. Said nation(s) would cease to exist shortly thereafter.

SCUD missiles are used by half the countries in the Middle East and the basic design is also used by N. Korea. N. Korea is on record as having already sold some of it's missiles to various Middle Eastern buyers.

If we could collect some samples of the fallout (which might be difficult if the air-burst was over the Atlantic), then we could likely identify the source of the fissionable material.

If the source was an old Soviet weapon, and the Russians stated that they had lost a half dozen similar weapons over the years, but swore they didn't launch the attack, would we believe them? Would we go to war with people that still have thousands of nukes if they might be telling the truth?

If the fissionable material came from the new "peaceful energy program" of either Iran or N. Korea, then it would be a little more clear cut. Either country would swear that the material was stolen or legitimately sold to XYZ terrorist group, but would be unlikely to be believed.

Would the President order 20 million N. Koreans/Iranians killed because the power was knocked out in part of the US? If 100 million Americans were going to die of starvation because we had no power, then Yes. But if some of the power was knocked out and we were managing to mostly feed those in the blacked out part of the country, would the President order a counter strike? Or would we play around trying to catch the XYZ group of terrorists? :dunno:

SFCSMITH(RET)
08-12-2012, 09:26
There is stuff to worry about, and, stuff to WORRY about.

This is neither.

Warp
08-12-2012, 20:29
Even if that nation sent out an urgent message, shortly after the launch but BEFORE the detonation, saying their launch codes had been compromised by a few rogue officers working with terrorists, and therefore this was NOT a nation-state attack on the U.S., but rather a terrorist attack?

Our press and the lefty/libs (but, I repeat myself) would raise such a fuss that there would be no military response at all.

You really think the people making those decisions would wait to see what the press thought before taking action???

quake
08-12-2012, 21:20
You really think the people making those decisions would wait to see what the press thought before taking action???

Can't say with authority about hypothetical, future situations; but I think this administration considers press response and press support before announcing most any policy decision.

Warp
08-12-2012, 21:27
Can't say with authority about hypothetical, future situations; but I think this administration considers press response and press support before announcing most any policy decision.

Are we talking about a 'policy decision' here?

LongGun1
08-12-2012, 22:20
Good luck quickly collecting "fallout" on a HEMP detonation 200+ miles up..

(in excess of 1 million feet high....jets are good for a small fraction of the altitude needed to sample)

..similar to climbing a mountain to dust for fingerprints for someone wearing gloves....IMO


My guess we would be much more busy just staying alive..

.. & trying to keep the "have nots" from destroying what remains!

Warp
08-12-2012, 22:20
Good luck quickly collecting "fallout" on a HEMP detonation 200+ miles up..

..similar to dusting for fingerprints for someone wearing gloves....IMO


My guess we would be much more busy staying alive..

.. & trying to keep the "have nots" from destroying what remains!

We might be occupied with that, but I'm sure the government would have and use plenty of resources in identifying the source.

LongGun1
08-12-2012, 22:35
We might be occupied with that, but I'm sure the government would have and use plenty of resources in identifying the source.


After a major HEMP..

I would surmise what we would have remaining of a government would be hiding in a bunker..

..as & IMO....DC has enough Zombies to self-terminate into total anarchy..

..also as do most Blue Urban areas!


The "Thin Blue Line" is just that!

LongGun1
08-12-2012, 22:41
Timely news story on the topic...

http://www.examiner.com/article/navy-destroyer-collides-with-oil-tanker-the-persian-gulf


A Homeland Security Advisory Council (HSAC) has held closed meetings to discuss the threat of attacks by Iran, including a phenomenon known as EMP. Many experts say Iran is on the verge of developing, or may already have nuclear weapons. There is growing concern that Iran is planning a EMP attack on the United States.

In February, a leading expert on electromagnetic pulse Peter Vincent Pry said Iranian military writings openly describe making a catastrophic nuclear EMP attack to eliminate the United States as an actor on the world stage. Iran has practiced launching missiles to simulate an EMP attack, including from a vessel at sea.

EMP aka "Electronic Pearl Harbor" is a huge energy wave strong enough to knock out systems that control electricity flow across the country. In what sounds like a science-fiction disaster, some experts acknowledge it is a real threat and increasingly are voicing their concerns. An intelligence report by the DHS released last summer, "Insider Threat to Utilities" adds the ingredient that could make it happen - sabotage.

A panel of experts commissioned by Congress in 2009 told Congress that the U.S. is ill-prepared to prevent or recover from an EMP, a vulnerability that could invite an attack. "We are not well-protected at all," said Michael Frankel, the executive director of the commission.

LongGun1
08-12-2012, 22:58
We owe China about 1.5 trillion, our corporations have invested much more than that in China by moving their manufacturing there. The Chinese would be blessed if the U.S. gave them a reason to nationalize our interests in China.

China looks at us as food and raw material producers long term, short term we still invent things and have some value but not enough for them to shed a tear over.



My thoughts also! :thumbsup:

China would become the major superpower in the Pac-Rim..

..Russia the same in Europe.


IMO...Our demise would be a major plus to their current governments..

..and many "old scores" would be settled...quickly!

DJ Niner
08-13-2012, 01:56
You really think the people making those decisions would wait to see what the press thought before taking action???I think that unless it was a clear-cut case of one nation-state knowingly attacking another nation-state (declaration of war, or equivalent overt acts), there would be no immediate response. And the longer we wait before retaliating, the less likely it is that there would ever be any firm (military action) retaliation at all. If there was ANY chance that it wasn't completely a state-sponsored action, there would be no retaliation against citizens of that state. The peacenik drumbeat would commence immediately, to protect the "innocent" peoples of the launching country, who cannot be held responsible for the actions of a few crazy/demented/irrational persons.

As for the current CIC and Co, I think these are people that focus-group what to have for breakfast, and having done that, they then listen very closely to their core constituencies for advice on how to conduct their morning BM. How may hawks do you count among the current administration's advisers?

Hell, even if there was a clear declaration of war, I think there STILL would be a 10%-20% chance we wouldn't respond in-kind, or with WMDs. Too many doves/turkeys/chickens roosting where we should have hawks and eagles.


.

TangoFoxtrot
08-13-2012, 04:02
This is all....Possible...but not probable. I would say a solar flare or CME will be what puts out the lights.

TangoFoxtrot
08-13-2012, 04:13
We owe China about 1.5 trillion, our corporations have invested much more than that in China by moving their manufacturing there. The Chinese would be blessed if the U.S. gave them a reason to nationalize our interests in China.

China looks at us as food and raw material producers long term, short term we still invent things and have some value but not enough for them to shed a tear over.

If the U.S. goes down.... China goes economy goes t*ts up!..and they know it.

schild
08-13-2012, 05:01
The U.S. has no chance of stopping anything fired from a freighter offshore. The missile defense system is only capable of stopping two simultaneously fired ICBM's, more than two overloads the system.

UneasyRider
08-13-2012, 05:08
If the U.S. goes down.... China goes economy goes t*ts up!..and they know it.

China sells to the rest of the world too. In addition China is developing a consumer economy from all of those working consumers who would gladly scoop up the production. We don't offer them anything that they can't get elsewhere.

We are going to repay there debt with drastically inflated dollars and the Chinese know it. They wont mis us at all.

quake
08-13-2012, 06:48
Are we talking about a 'policy decision' here?
Based on the everyday definition of the word "policy" {from webster}:
a definite course or method of action selected from among alternatives and in light of given conditions to guide and determine present and future decisions

Seems like the right word to describe the response - or lack thereof - to a given event or incident.

glock39
08-13-2012, 07:07
The U.S. has no chance of stopping anything fired from a freighter offshore. The missile defense system is only capable of stopping two simultaneously fired ICBM's, more than two overloads the system.

Yeah, I'm sure glad we didn't "waste" any money on that silly Star Wars missile defense system. As I recall, the proponents of missile defense couldn't guarantee to knock down 100% of an incoming Soviet attack. Since only stopping 90~95% of thousands of incoming Soviet missiles would still leave the US destroyed, the whole idea was dismissed as useless.

Right now, a 90% chance of knocking down a handful of primitive missles fired from freighters is actually sounding pretty good.

schild
08-13-2012, 07:50
Yeah, I'm sure glad we didn't "waste" any money on that silly Star Wars missile defense system. As I recall, the proponents of missile defense couldn't guarantee to knock down 100% of an incoming Soviet attack. Since only stopping 90~95% of thousands of incoming Soviet missiles would still leave the US destroyed, the whole idea was dismissed as useless.

Right now, a 90% chance of knocking down a handful of primitive missles fired from freighters is actually sounding pretty good.

My source says 0% chance of stopping anything fired from an offshore freighter.

LongGun1
08-13-2012, 08:43
Yeah, I'm sure glad we didn't "waste" any money on that silly Star Wars missile defense system. As I recall, the proponents of missile defense couldn't guarantee to knock down 100% of an incoming Soviet attack. Since only stopping 90~95% of thousands of incoming Soviet missiles would still leave the US destroyed, the whole idea was dismissed as useless.

Right now, a 90% chance of knocking down a handful of primitive missles fired from freighters is actually sounding pretty good.


How can you possibly correlate a missile defense success rate based on launches from halfway around the world...

..with maybe a 30 minute response window..(likely targeted during sub-orbital or ballistic descent phase...IMO)

..to one with a surprise launch in or near a US Port..

..with maybe a 2 minute response window (targeting would have to be while in boost :shocked: )!

The former likely during a time of increased tension between superpowers leading up to our satellites indicating silo door openings & other prelaunch preps by land, sea & air forces..

..the latter...a sudden 9/11 type of confusion...no preparedness...no effective response...


By the time we realized what might be happening..

..it would be all over...IMO!

GRIMLET
08-13-2012, 10:14
If the lights went off and the cell phones went dead without a warning of some kind, I feel society would crumble. The bigger the city, the more desperate and vicious they would become.
Even if corn is growing in Iowa, how does it make it to New York?
Travel without fuel won't work. If refineries aren't producing. How long would it take to set up a connection/delivery system. It is doubtful the shipment wouldn't be hijacked.

The previous prediction of 90% dead in one year seems not far from my best guess.

Any country who wanted our resources could sit back and let us do the job for them. Those left could be controlled or eliminated one by one.

glock39
08-13-2012, 10:45
How can you possibly correlate a missile defense success rate based on launches from halfway around the world...

..with maybe a 30 minute response window..(likely during a targeted during sub-orbital or ballistic descent phase)

..to one with a surprise launch in or near a US Port..

..with maybe a 2 minute response window (targeting would have to be while in boost :shocked: )!

The former likely during a time of increased tension between superpowers leading up to our satellites indicating silo door openings & other prelaunch preps by land, sea & air forces..

..the latter...a sudden 9/11 type of confusion...no preparedness...no effective response...


By the time we realized what might be happening..

..it would be all over...IMO!

You may be right...

I was assuming that, after 9/11, any missile defense system (had it been developed) would have been re-targeted to watch for threats like suspicious freighters within SCUD range of the US. I was also assuming that stopping a freighter fired SCUD is not much different than stopping a submarine fired ICBM (which is exactly what the system would have been designed to do). The fact that you would have to intercept the missile before it achieved air-burst altitude rather than before it reached a city would be more difficult, without a doubt. That would probably require something like a space-based laser. Back during the 80's, such a system was proposed specifically to shoot down enemy missiles during their most vulnerable "boost" phase of flight. See http://missilethreat.com/missiledefensesystems/id.57/system_detail.asp for details. The time immediately after launch is when the missile is going the slowest and presents the best target for a defense system, so that's when some of the "Star Wars" defenses were designed to intercept enemy missiles.

wjv
08-13-2012, 10:54
Limited EMP attack

Is that like "partially pregnant"?

Even if "just" the east cost was hit, the economy would collapse and the ripple effect could destroy the nation. We probably would end up with groups of States that would band together for mutual protection. . . But I think the US of A would have a less than 50% chance of survival.

However. . I'd bet that if we could ID the countries responsible, considering how many carrier groups and missile subs we have at sea at any given time, the Navy would turn those countries into a radioactive parking lot.

LongGun1
08-13-2012, 12:35
You may be right...

I was assuming that, after 9/11, any missile defense system (had it been developed) would have been re-targeted to watch for threats like suspicious freighters within SCUD range of the US. I was also assuming that stopping a freighter fired SCUD is not much different than stopping a submarine fired ICBM (which is exactly what the system would have been designed to do). The fact that you would have to intercept the missile before it achieved air-burst altitude rather than before it reached a city would be more difficult, without a doubt. That would probably require something like a space-based laser. Back during the 80's, such a system was proposed specifically to shoot down enemy missiles during their most vulnerable "boost" phase of flight. See http://missilethreat.com/missiledefensesystems/id.57/system_detail.asp for details. The time immediately after launch is when the missile is going the slowest and presents the best target for a defense system, so that's when some of the "Star Wars" defenses were designed to intercept enemy missiles.


Ballistic submarines are enemy warships and are tracked as such..

..freighters, tankers & the like are not.


Keep in mind, Clinton & Obama have gutted our military..

..we have retasked our focus & funds into the WOT...

..the "Star Wars" technology, 1980's defensive capabilities & Cold War posture many are confident of to defend us..

.. especially from a locally generated missile threat of this type..

..simply is not in place and/or functional at a high state of readiness.....IMHO

glock39
08-13-2012, 13:10
Ballistic submarines are enemy warships and are tracked as such..

..freighters, tankers & the like are not.


Keep in mind, Clinton & Obama have gutted our military..

..we have retasked our focus & funds into the WOT...

..the "Star Wars" technology, 1980's defensive capabilities & Cold War posture many are confident of to defend us..

.. especially from a locally generated missile threat of this type..

..simply is not in place and/or functional at a high state of readiness.....IMHO

Actually, I'm not at all confident for all the reasons you stated. Some of the anti-missile technology I'd like the military to have right now was never developed 20 years ago. Which is a pity, 'cause we could put it to good use today.

Bilbo Bagins
08-13-2012, 13:57
If the U.S. goes down.... China goes economy goes t*ts up!..and they know it.

But if we can't pay what we owe them, their economy goes &)* up , and they may come to "collect"

The problem with China is the only way to keep a billion people busy when the Ipad factories close down, is to give them a gun and a uniform and tell them to fight for their country.

Warp
08-13-2012, 14:05
But if we can't pay what we owe them, their economy goes &)* up , and they may come to "collect"

The problem with China is the only way to keep a billion people busy when the Ipad factories close down, is to give them a gun and a uniform and tell them to fight for their country.

And they proceed to do...what? Hike for a month to get to Mongolia and open fire? :rofl:

LongGun1
08-13-2012, 15:27
Actually, I'm not at all confident for all the reasons you stated. Some of the anti-missile technology I'd like the military to have right now was never developed 20 years ago. Which is a pity, 'cause we could put it to good use today.


And I sincerely hope our government has secretly prepared for this threat...

..but I am not holding my breath they have!


IMO...we were very good at addressing conventional threats..

..not so good countering the asymmetrical ones.

UneasyRider
08-13-2012, 17:22
But if we can't pay what we owe them, their economy goes &)* up , and they may come to "collect"

The problem with China is the only way to keep a billion people busy when the Ipad factories close down, is to give them a gun and a uniform and tell them to fight for their country.

We can't pay them what we owe them without printing it and I am sure that we would if they asked, why not right?

The Chinese not being fools know this and are not pressing the issue but rather building down their interest in US dollar investments. I think that they have every reason to maintain the US debt for use rationalizing nationalizing our assets in China when the time comes, and it will.

So the question is what do we offer them that they can't get somewhere else? Nothing. And every country on earth wants what they make including their own people. Sure we can give them some colored paper that is worth little if the system crashes so they keep it going for now.

If I were China I would take us down like this; Thursday night when the Asian markets open and we are sleeping anounce that China is converting all contracts with the U.S. and Europe into their currency at current exchange rates as of the close of currency trading in the U.S. Thursday. Get on the phone to Russia and the middle east pronto and convince them to see the light of joining them in this, the Russians use the rubal (currently worth 3 cents) and the middle east uses whatever they want (they have the oil).

Friday we wake up to PM's that have skyrocketed and Chinese who have rigged every world market with their inside information and stand to make trillions of dollars this week. The dollar has nose dived over night and continues all day. By the end of the weekend every country on earth has bailed on the dollar as the Chinese have and switch to world currency markets to create a formula for long term trade contracts.

All of the little crap that we make in China stops coming here unless we pay with some form of real wealth... Oil stops coming here unless we pay for it with real wealth... The undocumented Mexicans start heading back to Mexico where they can live in an industrialized country.

We are ok after a few years of retooling our factories and learning how to make shoes and clothes as well as some other high tech little gizmos.

Prices in the U.S. having skyrocketed everyone is poor except for the really wealthy who had enough money to continue manipulating the system in their favor. Wages go up monthly but prices go up faster, the only good thing is that long term debt is repaid with these new higher, much higher wages so if you were in debt you made out a bit with your debt but your still poor.

Our fellow citizens vote socialists into office to redistribute the wealth except we have already reached the day that socialist don't know exist... we have run out of other peoples money. So what money there is gets taxed so high that anyone with capital gets it the hell out of the country delaying our recovery by years until like the pilgrims who were starving under the Mayflower compact decided that it was better to go every man for himself vs starvation.

So I don't think that the Chinese would have it tough, they make everything! We on the other hand would have just pushed "reset" and would have to start rebuilding our manufacturing base with a socialist government leading the way... so my thoughts are that we should all buy small farms, but don't sell the food... that's illegal now.

LongGun1
08-13-2012, 21:03
We can't pay them what we owe them without printing it and I am sure that we would if they asked, why not right?

The Chinese not being fools know this and are not pressing the issue but rather building down their interest in US dollar investments. I think that they have every reason to maintain the US debt for use rationalizing nationalizing our assets in China when the time comes, and it will.

So the question is what do we offer them that they can't get somewhere else? Nothing. And every country on earth wants what they make including their own people. Sure we can give them some colored paper that is worth little if the system crashes so they keep it going for now.

If I were China I would take us down like this; Thursday night when the Asian markets open and we are sleeping anounce that China is converting all contracts with the U.S. and Europe into their currency at current exchange rates as of the close of currency trading in the U.S. Thursday. Get on the phone to Russia and the middle east pronto and convince them to see the light of joining them in this, the Russians use the rubal (currently worth 3 cents) and the middle east uses whatever they want (they have the oil).

Friday we wake up to PM's that have skyrocketed and Chinese who have rigged every world market with their inside information and stand to make trillions of dollars this week. The dollar has nose dived over night and continues all day. By the end of the weekend every country on earth has bailed on the dollar as the Chinese have and switch to world currency markets to create a formula for long term trade contracts.

All of the little crap that we make in China stops coming here unless we pay with some form of real wealth... Oil stops coming here unless we pay for it with real wealth... The undocumented Mexicans start heading back to Mexico where they can live in an industrialized country.

We are ok after a few years of retooling our factories and learning how to make shoes and clothes as well as some other high tech little gizmos.

Prices in the U.S. having skyrocketed everyone is poor except for the really wealthy who had enough money to continue manipulating the system in their favor. Wages go up monthly but prices go up faster, the only good thing is that long term debt is repaid with these new higher, much higher wages so if you were in debt you made out a bit with your debt but your still poor.

Our fellow citizens vote socialists into office to redistribute the wealth except we have already reached the day that socialist don't know exist... we have run out of other peoples money. So what money there is gets taxed so high that anyone with capital gets it the hell out of the country delaying our recovery by years until like the pilgrims who were starving under the Mayflower compact decided that it was better to go every man for himself vs starvation.

So I don't think that the Chinese would have it tough, they make everything! We on the other hand would have just pushed "reset" and would have to start rebuilding our manufacturing base with a socialist government leading the way... so my thoughts are that we should all buy small farms, but don't sell the food... that's illegal now.


:thumbsup:

TangoFoxtrot
08-14-2012, 04:07
But if we can't pay what we owe them, their economy goes &)* up , and they may come to "collect"

The problem with China is the only way to keep a billion people busy when the Ipad factories close down, is to give them a gun and a uniform and tell them to fight for their country.


Collect what? They can't take what we don't have. My solution is to gather up all the politicians and serve them to the chinese. They can pass out rifles to their people all they want...remember we are all armed too!:supergrin:

squirreld
08-14-2012, 18:52
Missile container system as LG suggests.
CLUB-K CONTAINER MISSILE SYSTEM - YouTube

And to Uneasyrider's post, this posted today, Aug 14 2012.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-companies-pull-us-stock-095649722.html

how ya feel now?

BRabbit
08-15-2012, 13:43
We can't pay them what we owe them without printing it and I am sure that we would if they asked, why not right?

The Chinese not being fools know this and are not pressing the issue but rather building down their interest in US dollar investments. I think that they have every reason to maintain the US debt for use rationalizing nationalizing our assets in China when the time comes, and it will.

So the question is what do we offer them that they can't get somewhere else? Nothing. And every country on earth wants what they make including their own people. Sure we can give them some colored paper that is worth little if the system crashes so they keep it going for now.

If I were China I would take us down like this; Thursday night when the Asian markets open and we are sleeping anounce that China is converting all contracts with the U.S. and Europe into their currency at current exchange rates as of the close of currency trading in the U.S. Thursday. Get on the phone to Russia and the middle east pronto and convince them to see the light of joining them in this, the Russians use the rubal (currently worth 3 cents) and the middle east uses whatever they want (they have the oil).

Friday we wake up to PM's that have skyrocketed and Chinese who have rigged every world market with their inside information and stand to make trillions of dollars this week. The dollar has nose dived over night and continues all day. By the end of the weekend every country on earth has bailed on the dollar as the Chinese have and switch to world currency markets to create a formula for long term trade contracts.

All of the little crap that we make in China stops coming here unless we pay with some form of real wealth... Oil stops coming here unless we pay for it with real wealth... The undocumented Mexicans start heading back to Mexico where they can live in an industrialized country.

We are ok after a few years of retooling our factories and learning how to make shoes and clothes as well as some other high tech little gizmos.

Prices in the U.S. having skyrocketed everyone is poor except for the really wealthy who had enough money to continue manipulating the system in their favor. Wages go up monthly but prices go up faster, the only good thing is that long term debt is repaid with these new higher, much higher wages so if you were in debt you made out a bit with your debt but your still poor.

Our fellow citizens vote socialists into office to redistribute the wealth except we have already reached the day that socialist don't know exist... we have run out of other peoples money. So what money there is gets taxed so high that anyone with capital gets it the hell out of the country delaying our recovery by years until like the pilgrims who were starving under the Mayflower compact decided that it was better to go every man for himself vs starvation.

So I don't think that the Chinese would have it tough, they make everything! We on the other hand would have just pushed "reset" and would have to start rebuilding our manufacturing base with a socialist government leading the way... so my thoughts are that we should all buy small farms, but don't sell the food... that's illegal now.

Good post.

Tom Kanik
08-16-2012, 19:15
Interesting thread.:cool:

LongGun1
08-16-2012, 21:14
Interesting thread.:cool:


Hopefully this topic will remain hypothetical for all of eternity..

..but it seems more & more likely to transpire in my lifetime.


YMMV

DaScotsman
08-16-2012, 23:53
EMP scenarios are of the Strong/High/Cheap variety... you get to pick only two. ;)

EMP causes line-of-sight damage. So, the higher it is, the wider an area is reached. Unfortunately, EM laws also follow the inverse square law. Delivered energy drops over distance by a factor of 1/r^2.

So, if you can get it high enough to damage a wide area... it has to be a really big bomb to do the damage. If it's a really big bomb, chances are you're not talking about a terrorist group or someone new to the nuclear weapons field. You're talking about the Russians. And the Russians want no part of this game, because they know we have boomers in deep water, just waiting to strike back.

FWIW, I think if we're going to see an EMP attack, it'd most likely be from a rogue state, and they'd confine it to DC or NYC. And, if the President is anyone but a total dufus, we'd nuke the capitol of the attacking nation as soon as they are identified.

TangoFoxtrot
08-17-2012, 03:25
It does not matter who is president! The U.S. does not have the stones to nuke another nations capital. We would probably send them Billions of dollars and tell them to go away.

kirgi08
08-17-2012, 04:05
Disagree,we get hit we will shoot back.'08.

Bilbo Bagins
08-17-2012, 08:53
Collect what? They can't take what we don't have. My solution is to gather up all the politicians and serve them to the chinese. They can pass out rifles to their people all they want...remember we are all armed too!:supergrin:


What do the Chinese need, and what have they been gathering for the last few decades. Raw Material, fuel, and farmable land.

What is Alaska worth to China? What is the Breadbasket worth to a country with a billion people? What about all the American coal mines, natural gas deposits, and raw materials, Metals, minerals, and forest.

Think how the Louisiana Purchase and the Alaska Purchase happened. France needed money to fight a war. Russia sold Alaska, in part because they had money troubles, and Alaska was a distant territory to them and they feared losing it to Britian if they fought another war, like the Crimean War with them.

Look at what is happening today. We owe China trillions, and it may get to the point were we owe more than we as a country can produce. We may be in a catch 22 now or in the future. China may cut our credit card and put the USA in an economic situation where we are forced to sell territory or mining rights to China to keep the money flowing.

Imagine, the Alaskan pipeline is taken over by the Chinese. Mining rights at a National park is giving to the Chinese. We sell our territorial rights to Guam, Wake, and Midway Islands. How far does it go? Do we sell Alaska and everything west of the Mississippi like the Russians and French did to us to pay a there debt?

But the America voters would not allow it !! Then that is were we get into a dilemma. The offer is put on the table, but the public outcry in America is intense, and the offer is dropped. Things get worse in America, the economy tanks, our miltary gets weaker and weaker. The people in the USA go from rich 1st world to poor 3rd worlders. At what point does a country like China comes along and decides to take what they think is theirs.

And before you say, well here in the USA we are armed, look at how an advanced military like the USA can come into a country like Afghanistan and Iraq and decimate the opposition. They were armed too.

Look at the history of countries and their borders over the past 200 years, 100 years, 50 years. Heck, with the fall of the Soviet Union, and other events across the globe the world map from 25 years is completely different from today's map.

The USA over the course of the last 200 years has expanded its borders, while other countries around the world, have contracted, changed hands, and even disspeared. Who knows what the future will bring for the USA.

LongGun1
08-17-2012, 09:42
EMP causes line-of-sight damage. So, the higher it is, the wider an area is reached. Unfortunately, EM laws also follow the inverse square law. Delivered energy drops over distance by a factor of 1/r^2.



Yes & no...(If a HEMP is included)

Inverse Square Law up to a certain altitude/distance

Compton Recoil above that distance totally changes the game.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compton_scattering

http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/emp.htm

DaScotsman
08-17-2012, 10:04
Yes & no...(If a HEMP is included)

Inverse Square Law up to a certain altitude/distance

Compton Recoil above that distance totally changes the game.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compton_scattering

http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/emp.htm

No guarantee the ground effects would be anymore widespread than the original EMP/LineOfSight effects... Might make DirecTV a little unhappy, tho. ;)

Interesting note in the FAS article...
HEMP can pose a serious threat to military systems when even a single high-altitude nuclear explosion occurs. In principle, even a new nuclear proliferator could execute such a strike. In practice, however, it seems unlikely that such a state would use one of its scarce warheads to inflict damage which must be considered secondary to the primary effects of blast, shock, and thermal pulse. Furthermore, a HEMP attack must use a relatively large warhead to be effective (perhaps on the order of one mega-ton), and new proliferators are unlikely to be able to construct such a device, much less make it small enough to be lofted to high altitude by a ballistic missile or space launcher.

LongGun1
08-17-2012, 19:21
No guarantee the ground effects would be anymore widespread than the original EMP/LineOfSight effects... Might make DirecTV a little unhappy, tho. ;)

Interesting note in the FAS article...


Those were just a couple of URLs describing Compton..

..but some of the other information may be outdated.


For example...

One concern of mine about yield, Iran & the capability of delivering an CONUS wide HEMP at some point in the future...

..is a newer study I read fairly recently...

(one I also posted here...IIRC)

..stated the more primitive, inefficient & lower yield fission nuclear weapons (i.e. North Korea, Pakistan, & possibly Iran sooner or later)

..may be very effective in producing an HEMP Compton Scatter.



YMMV

TangoFoxtrot
08-18-2012, 06:18
What do the Chinese need, and what have they been gathering for the last few decades. Raw Material, fuel, and farmable land.

What is Alaska worth to China? What is the Breadbasket worth to a country with a billion people? What about all the American coal mines, natural gas deposits, and raw materials, Metals, minerals, and forest.

Think how the Louisiana Purchase and the Alaska Purchase happened. France needed money to fight a war. Russia sold Alaska, in part because they had money troubles, and Alaska was a distant territory to them and they feared losing it to Britian if they fought another war, like the Crimean War with them.

Look at what is happening today. We owe China trillions, and it may get to the point were we owe more than we as a country can produce. We may be in a catch 22 now or in the future. China may cut our credit card and put the USA in an economic situation where we are forced to sell territory or mining rights to China to keep the money flowing.

Imagine, the Alaskan pipeline is taken over by the Chinese. Mining rights at a National park is giving to the Chinese. We sell our territorial rights to Guam, Wake, and Midway Islands. How far does it go? Do we sell Alaska and everything west of the Mississippi like the Russians and French did to us to pay a there debt?

But the America voters would not allow it !! Then that is were we get into a dilemma. The offer is put on the table, but the public outcry in America is intense, and the offer is dropped. Things get worse in America, the economy tanks, our miltary gets weaker and weaker. The people in the USA go from rich 1st world to poor 3rd worlders. At what point does a country like China comes along and decides to take what they think is theirs.

And before you say, well here in the USA we are armed, look at how an advanced military like the USA can come into a country like Afghanistan and Iraq and decimate the opposition. They were armed too.

Look at the history of countries and their borders over the past 200 years, 100 years, 50 years. Heck, with the fall of the Soviet Union, and other events across the globe the world map from 25 years is completely different from today's map.

The USA over the course of the last 200 years has expanded its borders, while other countries around the world, have contracted, changed hands, and even disspeared. Who knows what the future will bring for the USA.

I see your points and some are valid. BUT! I was in Iraq and we decimated nothing but buildings and property (which was rebuild by the U.S.). Yes we did kill some of the insurgents, but most just faded back into the woodwork to regroup and surface another day. Same in Afghanistan. You can't go into someones eles back yard and pick a fight or be the world police. Well getting back to China. They can cut our credit but remember the will be flushed down the same toilet as us. Because the economy is based on "us" Our country's economy and future is in serious trouble. The greed and power struggles in gour government are gonna come to a head soon, and the taxpayer is right smack in the middle.

UneasyRider
08-18-2012, 06:39
I see your points and some are valid. BUT! I was in Iraq and we decimated nothing but buildings and property (which was rebuild by the U.S.). Yes we did kill some of the insurgents, but most just faded back into the woodwork to regroup and surface another day. Same in Afghanistan. You can't go into someones eles back yard and pick a fight or be the world police. Well getting back to China. They can cut our credit but remember the will be flushed down the same toilet as us. Because the economy is based on "us" Our country's economy and future is in serious trouble. The greed and power struggles in gour government are gonna come to a head soon, and the taxpayer is right smack in the middle.

Don't worry about the taxpayer... we don't have enough income to balance the budget if they take it all. We can only print money from now on, we are well beyond the PONR.

China's economy is not based on us, they sell world wide and they are right at the point of developing an internal market.

Just prepare, relax, and enjoy the ride. Should be exciting!

AK_Stick
08-18-2012, 12:16
EMP is not the boogyman that it has been made out to be.


One Second After, is a book written almost entirely upon fiction.


An EMP attack would make life difficult, but it wouldn't be the end of the world like OSA made it out to be.

Warp
08-18-2012, 12:34
EMP is not the boogyman that it has been made out to be.



That's the direction I lean.

It sure is one of the favorite/biggest topics in prep type circles these days though.

AK_Stick
08-18-2012, 12:38
Never underestimate the power of stupid people.


Just as bad as the whole Bird Flu/Swine Flu bit.

LongGun1
08-18-2012, 15:58
EMP is not the boogyman that it has been made out to be.


One Second After, is a book written almost entirely upon fiction.


An EMP attack would make life difficult, but it wouldn't be the end of the world like OSA made it out to be.




The damage by a pulse of maybe 50 to 200 KeV/M HEMP to the millions upon millions of microelectronic devices nationwide with circuit paths measured in microns..

..is simply incalculable...

..especially since the mere touching of many can cause immediate & irreparable damage..

..just by the static voltage contained in an ungrounded human body...

..even 30 volts can destroy some.

In my experience with the overwhelming majority of people..

..electricity & electronic devices are nothing short of magic..

They do not understand even the basics of their modern lifestyle..

..could not even describe the concept of how their cellphone works..

CDMA?? SMD?? Farad?? Multiplex?? PSTN??


So expecting some here to fully or even elementarily understand the danger of a CONUS HEMP has been a uphill battle.

Hard for some to imagine a space based event turning a huge electrical transformer into molten slag..

..but it has happened before..

..& it can certainly happen again!


On the flipside..

Since High School...including military service (tactical microwave wideband communications...and other related areas)..

..electronics engineering being my educational background..

..the technical aspects of electronics in one form or another is how I make my living.

And studying HEMP effects is a minor hobby of mine.


But disregard the technical aspects of an HEMP for a moment..

..and consider just the social ones.

Consider 50% of the population feels they are "entitled" to what the remaining 50% produce...

..in good times or bad.

IMO....If a simultaneous nationwide electrical infrastructure collapse..

(due to a single or multiple HEMPs)

..along with cascading failures throughout other technical infrastructure (wired & wireless communication, internet, etc)

..as well as standalone devices...

..when the best & brightest of the "producing 50%" are attempting to address the damage..

..and attempting to restore the very complex, interconnected, technical infrastructure of our society..

..expect the "entitlement 50%" & their political panderers to do their best to exploit the event..

.. dragging of all of us into a deep dark hole of chaos & anarchy that may take generations to recover!


YMMV


Never underestimate the power of stupid people.


Just as bad as the whole Bird Flu/Swine Flu bit.


You & I agree on the 1st statement..

..but for different reasons! :rofl:


And just because the 2nd statement has not happened yet..

..does not entail it will not.

After all...there is already a very contagious man-altered "bird flu" in a university lab in Europe..

..and nature may need a while to finish coding what could our worst nightmare since (& maybe before) 1918.

UneasyRider
08-18-2012, 17:25
The damage by a pulse of maybe 50 to 200 KeV/M HEMP to the millions upon millions of microelectronic devices nationwide with circuit paths measured in microns..

..is simply incalculable...

..especially since the mere touching of many can cause immediate & irreparable damage..

..just by the static voltage contained in an ungrounded human body...

..even 30 volts can destroy some.

In my experience with the overwhelming majority of people..

..electricity & electronic devices are nothing short of magic..

They do not understand even the basics of their modern lifestyle..

..could not even describe the concept of how their cellphone works..

CDMA?? SMD?? Farad?? Multiplex?? PSTN??


So expecting some here to fully or even elementarily understand the danger of a CONUS HEMP has been a uphill battle.

Hard for some to imagine a space based event turning a huge electrical transformer into molten slag..

..but it has happened before..

..& it can certainly happen again!


On the flipside..

Since High School...including military service (tactical microwave wideband communications...and other related areas)..

..electronics engineering being my educational background..

..the technical aspects of electronics in one form or another is how I make my living.

And studying HEMP effects is a minor hobby of mine.


But disregard the technical aspects of an HEMP for a moment..

..and consider just the social ones.

Consider 50% of the population feels they are "entitled" to what the remaining 50% produce...

..in good times or bad.

IMO....If a simultaneous nationwide electrical infrastructure collapse..

(due to a single or multiple HEMPs)

..along with cascading failures throughout other technical infrastructure (wired & wireless communication, internet, etc)

..as well as standalone devices...

..when the best & brightest of the "producing 50%" are attempting to address the damage..

..and attempting to restore the very complex, interconnected, technical infrastructure of our society..

..expect the "entitlement 50%" & their political panderers to do their best to expand the damage..

.. & the result being dragging the all of us into a deep dark hole of chaos & anarchy that may take generations to recover!


YMMV





You & I agree on the 1st statement..

..but for different reasons! :rofl:


And just because the 2nd statement has not happened yet..

..does not entail it will not.

After all...there is already a very contagious man-altered "bird flu" in a university lab in Europe..

..and nature may need a while to finish coding what could our worst nightmare since (& maybe before) 1918.

Good posting from my understanding of things. :goodpost:

In a single event with a most effective target of Chicago I think that I would try to survive it down here in Florida. In a multiple strike scenario that included the east coast I would not be hopeful for my family surviving long term, and I am prepared. To much luck comes into the equation, nobody is safe in that madness.