The 'Bread And Peace Model' Says Obama Is Toast In November [Archive] - Glock Talk

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JBnTX
08-19-2012, 10:46
We can only hope!


http://www.businessinsider.com/the-bread-and-peace-model-says-obama-is-toast-in-november-2012-8


'The Bread and Peace model is perhaps the most successful long term presidential model in United States electoral history."

"The model is derived explicitly from fundamentals only. It doesn't bother with the polling, and it doesn't focus on anything besides Real Personal Income Growth, an economic metric, and the number of American casualties in foreign wars."

"We ran it with the latest data, and it says that Obama is set to get only 47.2 percent of the popular vote in November."

Bruce H
08-19-2012, 11:10
We can only hope!


http://www.businessinsider.com/the-bread-and-peace-model-says-obama-is-toast-in-november-2012-8


'The Bread and Peace model is perhaps the most successful long term presidential model in United States electoral history."

"The model is derived explicitly from fundamentals only. It doesn't bother with the polling, and it doesn't focus on anything besides Real Personal Income Growth, an economic metric, and the number of American casualties in foreign wars."

"We ran it with the latest data, and it says that Obama is set to get only 47.2 percent of the popular vote in November."




That is 47% more than he should get.

Cavalry Doc
08-19-2012, 11:39
Trends are nice, but as is often said: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Every situation is unique.

aircarver
08-19-2012, 12:01
That is 47% more than he should get.

That's a lot of people, bought and paid for ... :frown:

.

W420Hunter
08-19-2012, 12:04
We ran it with the latest data, and it says that Obama is set to get only 47.2 percent of the popular vote in November.
Ok so here is the elephant in the room, 42% of the popular vote. As we saw with GW the guy with the popular vote does not always win.

janice6
08-19-2012, 12:08
If he is only going to get 47.2% of the popular vote, where are the rest of the 49+ percent that don't pay taxes? Maybe they realize he is not good for the country also.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2105131/HALF-Americans-dont-pay-income-tax-despite-crippling-government-debt.html

GAFinch
08-19-2012, 12:15
Don't get too excited, he could still boost lib voter turnout by suddenly evolving his position on weed.

G29Reload
08-19-2012, 12:19
That is 47% more than he should get.

Really. We have THAT MANY stupid people in this country?

I say he fails on the Marxist thug hi unemployment $4 gas model lying *****.

Ruble Noon
08-19-2012, 12:22
Don't get too excited, he could still boost lib voter turnout by suddenly evolving his position on weed.


Weed, student loan debt forgiveness and home mortgage modification. Promise these three things and he wins.

countrygun
08-19-2012, 12:38
Don't get too excited, he could still boost lib voter turnout by suddenly evolving his position on weed.


As I recall, he hasn't "spent" all of "his" "stimulus money" yet. Watch for him to throw out a great bribe between the Republican Convention and the election.

VinnieD
08-19-2012, 12:56
Forget Bread and Peace, I think they're going for Bread and Circuses. It's been the Dem Strategy since Carter. Keep them fat, dumb, and distracted, and the fear of losing the easy life will keep the votes pouring in.

Bren
08-19-2012, 13:03
We can only hope!


http://www.businessinsider.com/the-bread-and-peace-model-says-obama-is-toast-in-november-2012-8


'The Bread and Peace model is perhaps the most successful long term presidential model in United States electoral history."

"The model is derived explicitly from fundamentals only. It doesn't bother with the polling, and it doesn't focus on anything besides Real Personal Income Growth, an economic metric, and the number of American casualties in foreign wars."

"We ran it with the latest data, and it says that Obama is set to get only 47.2 percent of the popular vote in November."



How many times has that model had to take into account a president elected almost entirely based on his race?

Predictions are a lot harder for this one.

JBnTX
08-19-2012, 14:41
Low in this bunch, the confidence is.

Every single post gives Obama the benefit of the doubt,
and makes some excuse why Obama will pull a victory out of this election.

Obama's going to lose, folks.
You heard it here first.

GAFinch
08-19-2012, 14:50
Low in this bunch, the confidence is.

Every single post gives Obama the benefit of the doubt,
and makes some excuse why Obama will pull a victory out of this election.

Obama's going to lose, folks.
You heard it here first.

If the election was held today, Romney would win. On paper, Romney should still win in November, especially with gas prices going back up. His opponent, though, is a lying pinko bastard. Don't get complacent. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

cowboy1964
08-19-2012, 15:45
47.2%? That tells me right there that the model isn't correct. It's going to be much closer than that.

ChuteTheMall
08-20-2012, 20:23
Overall popular vote doesn't matter.

What matters is who wins certain states' electoral votes.

51% in certain states plus 0% in the others will still beat 49% in those same states against 100% in all others.

Happy Hunting
08-20-2012, 20:43
Weed, student loan debt forgiveness and home mortgage modification. Promise these three things and he wins.

Reading this I had an "Oh ****" epiphany.

Most kids coming out of college are brainwashed by their professors and TV into voting for O anyway so I can hope that it won't make a difference as far as percentage of voters going that way. Hopefully he will announce it too late for Smoky McPots and the run of the mill Paulbot to leave the hot box and register to vote. Obama has nothing to lose by pushing for legalization, because opposed would greatly prefer Romney anyway.

People forget that from '08-'10 Obama had the political market cornered and did nothing for gays, potheads, or kids with worthless college degrees. Nothing brings in votes like promising to absolve debts.

He will treat the remaining stimulus money as a campaign war chest.

GAFinch
08-20-2012, 21:32
I recently spoke with a college kid who rather easily came out in favor of gun control for assault weapons despite his "libertarian" beliefs after the Aurora shooting. It was pretty obvious that his political beliefs consisted of some YouTube videos layered on top of his baseline liberal education/indoctrination.

If you're missing any needed firearms, magazines, ammo, etc. go on a diet, skip the movies, and limit your driving for a bit. If you're planning out a home purchase, job change, or investment strategy, be cautious. Corporations and small businesses alike sure are being careful with their money right now and they're mostly run by smart, logical, level-headed people.

SPIN2010
08-20-2012, 21:52
Trends are nice, but as is often said: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Every situation is unique.

Man is so odd.

One day it is track record is everything, next day it is (see quote: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance).

We are truly living in a time of confusion.