Intrade: Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012- 57.6% [Archive] - Glock Talk

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Flintlocker
08-19-2012, 16:19
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012


57.6%CHANCE

Last prediction was: $5.76 / share
Today's Change: http://www.intrade.com/v4/assets/img/buy-arrow.png +$0.06 (+1.1%)
Contract Type: 0-100 http://www.intrade.com/v4/assets/img/icon-tooltip.png

Glockdude1
08-19-2012, 16:27
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012


57.6%CHANCE

Last prediction was: $5.76 / share
Today's Change: http://www.intrade.com/v4/assets/img/buy-arrow.png +$0.06 (+1.1%)
Contract Type: 0-100 http://www.intrade.com/v4/assets/img/icon-tooltip.png

:rofl:

hogship
08-19-2012, 16:37
Is that some sort of an on-line poll?

ooc

Flintlocker
08-19-2012, 16:38
I followed JBnTX's "Bread and Peace" link and the author of that piece states:

"I believe that the best predictions of 2012 election results, as of earlier elections, will almost surely be delivered by price data at betting sites like Intrade (http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/) and the Iowa Electronic Markets (http://www.tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres12.html) (which of course contribute nothing to explanation)."

snerd
08-19-2012, 16:40
http://unrealitymag.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/mr-t-nancy.jpg

Cavalry Doc
08-19-2012, 16:42
As I have been telling all of the fortune tellers around here, November is a lot farther off than it seems. The American voter has a very short attention span. Both campaigns likely have October surprises ready to go, and we will all have to see what they are, and evaluate the gaffes and words of the candidates.

We probably aren't even discussing the issue that will win the election yet.

Don't forget this little gem, that swayed the election a few years ago.

http://bweaver.net/images/carry-large.jpg



None of the predictions are worth much. The funnest part about this whole process, is that no one knows how it ends. Embrace it.

:popcorn:

Flintlocker
08-19-2012, 16:43
Is that some sort of an on-line poll?

ooc

Yes, that's exactly what it is. :supergrin:

ModGlock17
08-19-2012, 18:59
None of the predictions are worth much. The funnest part about this whole process, is that no one knows how it ends. Embrace it.

:popcorn:
Obam is trying to help drough stricken farmers with subsidies...

The drough is killing farming biz right now, in the midwest.

This is a gift from above, at the nick of time.

I would not be surprised if Iowa and neighboring states would all go for Obama this November. All he has to do is print more cash and give to the farmers.

Rom needs to lessen the blow by supporting the effort, somehow.

countrygun
08-19-2012, 19:02
Obam is trying to help drough stricken farmers with subsidies...

The drough is killing farming biz right now, in the midwest.

This is a gift from above, at the nick of time.

I would not be surprised if Iowa and neighboring states would all go for Obama this November. All he has to do is print more cash and give to the farmers.

Rom needs to lessen the blow by supporting the effort, somehow.

Remember the unused "stimulus money"?

ModGlock17
08-19-2012, 19:09
Remember the unused "stimulus money"?
Yes.

I know there's a lot of good people in the farming mid-section of the USA. But I am not sure they will vote for long-term better-ment of America when short-term cash is in hand.

countrygun
08-19-2012, 19:16
Yes.

I know there's a lot of good people in the farming mid-section of the USA. But I am not sure they will vote for long-term better-ment of America when short-term cash is in hand.


exactly that was why all the money wsn't spent already, so they would have it when they identified the most "needy" voting bloc right before the election.

Cavalry Doc
08-19-2012, 19:17
Yes.

I know there's a lot of good people in the farming mid-section of the USA. But I am not sure they will vote for long-term better-ment of America when short-term cash is in hand.

There are about a million ways to support helping drought victims out, without supporting bailing out stupid rich bankers and auto unions, and still look pretty conservative.

Should only take about 5 minutes to write that speech. Not saying that they will, only that it would be easy.


I'm seeing some traps being laid for Barry in the debates.

:popcorn: We'll see. :popcorn:

countrygun
08-19-2012, 19:21
There are about a million ways to support helping drought victims out, without supporting bailing out stupid rich bankers and auto unions, and still look pretty conservative.

Should only take about 5 minutes to write that speech. Not saying that they will, only that it would be easy.


I'm seeing some traps being laid for Barry in the debates.

:popcorn: We'll see. :popcorn:




You mean like instead of giving money to Solyendra execs and letting them fritter it away (trickle down anyone? Oh wait Dems don't do that) actually giving it to the farmers?

ModGlock17
08-19-2012, 19:29
If I'm Romney, I would be tempted to say something like,

'All drought stricken farmers in 2012 will receive income loss tax credits and will not have to pay ANY federal income tax for the next 4 years, under my administration, at a minimum.'

This allows farmers to get new biz incomes without paying taxes.

evlbruce
08-20-2012, 18:44
This is actually down from when I last checked, but still too high to buy in.

Is that some sort of an on-line poll?

ooc

People are putting real money on the line betting on the outcome.

jakebrake
08-20-2012, 18:54
featherlocker, keep tryin'. i goive you credit for being a dreamer.

best oddsmaker in vegas says it's a landslide for romney. your poin?

pipedreams
08-20-2012, 19:03
I would not be surprised if Iowa and neighboring states would all go for Obama this November. All he has to do is print more cash and give to the farmers.


Don't count on the farmer to vote for him. If he carries Iowa it will be because the free loaders in about four major populations areas carry the state in most elections. If you go back and check the red and blue counties maps you will find I'm correct.

Gundude
08-20-2012, 19:09
featherlocker, keep tryin'. i goive you credit for being a dreamer.

best oddsmaker in vegas says it's a landslide for romney. your poin?Does this oddsmaker have a name?

jakebrake
08-20-2012, 19:11
Does this oddsmaker have a name?
Wayne Allyn Root

Flintlocker
08-20-2012, 20:31
Wayne Allyn Root

Wayne Allyn Root the oddsmaker pegs McCain as a 13-to-12 favorite in Nevada, though he does give the Libertarian ticket a "less than 50-50" shot of becoming a Ross Perot-like spoiler. If Obama wins the state, he says, "it will be because Bob Barr and I got between 6 and 10 percent."

source: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/swingers/2008/10/will_obama_crap_out.single.html

Obama won Nevada by 55% to 43% and Barr and Root got 0.44% of the vote.

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada,_2008

:rofl::rofl:

Gundude
08-21-2012, 09:19
Wayne Allyn Root
Root isn't an oddsmaker. He's what's known in the business as a "tout." Oddsmakers calculate the opening betting line on sporting events for casinos and sports books. They have legitimate jobs in the gambling industry. Touts sell "picks" on sporting events to suckers, whom they convince gives them a better chance at winning than if they pick for themselves. They are generally scam artists. Root is a particularly accomplished scam artist. His expansion from touting into politics was a natural one, given his talent for lying so blatantly yet without an ounce of conscience.

Just for fun, read this post from 2005 titled "I worked for Wayne Root, let me tell you about it (http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/2303-i-worked-wayne-root-let-me-tell-you-about.html)" It ends with this statement:I think eventually his company will crumble and he will try to move on to something else. Anyone who buys his stock should have their head examined. It's at .04 cents for a reason. It could be delisted any day now.All of that has indeed come to pass (company crumbled, now trading on OTC Pink for 1 penny after a 1 for 200 reverse split), but can you guess what the "move on to something else" turned out to be? Where, besides the world of sports betting, will you find an endless stream of suckers willing to pay you to tell them what they should think and what they should do? Hmmm...

Yup, conservative talk radio (along with its associated book-writing).

ChuteTheMall
08-21-2012, 09:47
Did Intrade correctly predict that it's founder would die this year just short of the peak on Mt Everest?:faint:

series1811
08-21-2012, 10:14
If this is all the DUers can come up with for posts here, Obama is in more trouble than we thought.

jakebrake
08-21-2012, 15:07
If this is all the DUers can come up with for posts here, Obama is in more trouble than we thought.

it is. featherlocker will grasp at any straw she can find.
toorop is almost as bad.