Only 9% of sampled households gave an answer to a pollster in 2012 [Archive] - Glock Talk

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Goaltender66
10-01-2012, 08:26
http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/

For decades survey research has provided trusted data about political attitudes and voting behavior, the economy, health, education, demography and many other topics. But political and media surveys are facing significant challenges as a consequence of societal and technological changes.

It has become increasingly difficult to contact potential respondents and to persuade them to participate. The percentage of households in a sample that are successfully interviewed the response rate has fallen dramatically. At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today.

http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/05/5-15-12-1.png

So think about that. Only 9% of households called by pollsters provide a decent response. Clicking through the data at the link shows some of the reasons why. 38% of those called couldn't even be reached (meaning the real contact rate is 62%). Of that 62%, 86% actively refused to participate. This means 53% of the sample is refusing to participate.

DustyJacket
10-01-2012, 08:45
I don't do surveys.

JBnTX
10-01-2012, 08:57
So think about that. Only 9% of households called by pollsters provide a decent response. Clicking through the data at the link shows some of the reasons why. 38% of those called couldn't even be reached (meaning the real contact rate is 62%). Of that 62%, 86% actively refused to participate. This means 53% of the sample is refusing to participate.


Then the pollsters fill in the blanks left by the uncooperative
participants with their own personal political beliefs, which are usually liberal.

Polls are BS!

JFrame
10-01-2012, 09:03
Despite the precipitous loss of input, it's interesting that a polling group would still find polls viable... :whistling:


.

Skyhook
10-01-2012, 09:14
Those polls are meaningful only to those who want to desperately feel like they are backing the right person when they are not. Polls are, as we all know, useful tools for propaganda artists like MSM talking heads, headless writers of editorials, etc.

Goaltender66
10-01-2012, 09:48
This actually leads me to another thought....

This cycle we are seeing samples with wildly unrealistic turnout models. D +9, +10, and in MO, R +99.

Kidding aside, what if these models aren't necessarily a result of a pollster getting creative with the weighting, but because these are the only people who would participate in the poll? It can be very expensive and time consuming to poll a proper turnout model, so the pollsters just accept the only 1,000 people to participate and leave it at that. In their final October polling they'll put together a proper sample so as to save their reputations.

JFrame
10-01-2012, 09:54
This actually leads me to another thought....

This cycle we are seeing samples with wildly unrealistic turnout models. D +9, +10, and in MO, R +99.

Kidding aside, what if these models aren't necessarily a result of a pollster getting creative with the weighting, but because these are the only people who would participate in the poll? It can be very expensive and time consuming to poll a proper turnout model, so the pollsters just accept the only 1,000 people to participate and leave it at that. In their final October polling they'll put together a proper sample so as to save their reputations.


Just using an empirical evidence of one (me), I never answer the phone for 877-, 866-, 800-, or basically ANY call from someone I don't know. That's what I have an answering machine for, and if it's important enough to talk to me, they can leave a darned message.

That's at least one conservative opinion that never gets polled.

Honestly -- I wonder about the people who all they have is time on their hands to answer calls from strangers...


.

aircarver
10-01-2012, 10:18
Honestly -- I wonder about the people who all they have is time on their hands to answer calls from strangers...



They don't have to go to work ?

.

JFrame
10-01-2012, 10:19
They don't have to go to work ?

.


Hell -- they don't have ANYTHING else to do??? :dunno:


.

Skyhook
10-01-2012, 10:56
This actually leads me to another thought....

This cycle we are seeing samples with wildly unrealistic turnout models. D +9, +10, and in MO, R +99.

Kidding aside, what if these models aren't necessarily a result of a pollster getting creative with the weighting, but because these are the only people who would participate in the poll? It can be very expensive and time consuming to poll a proper turnout model, so the pollsters just accept the only 1,000 people to participate and leave it at that. In their final October polling they'll put together a proper sample so as to save their reputations.

>>>>>>> "..so as to save their reputations."

I dare say it's a bit late for that 'save'.

Like JFrame says, "Just using an empirical evidence of one (me), I never answer the phone for 877-, 866-, 800-, or basically ANY call from someone I don't know. That's what I have an answering machine for, and if it's important enough to talk to me, they can leave a darned message.

That's at least one conservative opinion that never gets polled.

Honestly -- I wonder about the people who all they have is time on their hands to answer calls from strangers..."

Javelin
10-01-2012, 12:25
Not worth my time so I don't do them.


And I really don't care what they have to say anyway. :supergrin:

Javelin
10-01-2012, 12:25
Especially a poll about a poll. :whistling:

brickboy240
10-01-2012, 12:35
We all knew these polls were crap. Big media just propping up their boy....that is all.

Besides, how did the numbers get so skewed towards Obama when in 2010, he and his party/agenda got their head handed to them in the mid term elections? Its not as if things have gotten tons better.

Yeah, I say ignore the polls. The left is trying to discourage us and sway the election. they have to pull out all the stops because their boy cannot run on his record or the economy.

-brickboy240

ChuteTheMall
10-01-2012, 12:49
After years of being ignored by pollsters, or lied to, I'm finally on the frontlines in a battleground state. So, if I happen to be home when my landline rings, I answer it and I respond to the pollster.

But I lied. :tongueout:

According to the last automated poll I answered, I'm a 25 year old Asian single female making only $25,000 per year, voted for Obama in 2008 but currently undecided.

Last time I got a live pollster I responded as a 60 year old Hispanic male with 7 children and making $150,000 per year, voted for Obama in 2008 but leaning towards Romney today.

I always say I voted for Obama in 2008 but that I'm either undecided or leaning towards Romney today. It amuses me to annoy the media, they've been annoying me forever.
:deadhorse:

NDCent
10-01-2012, 13:02
I keep a whistle attached to the cord of our landline. :notlistening:

It usually gets an unpleasant reaction from the wife and critters too. :supergrin:

concretefuzzynuts
10-01-2012, 15:12
Are they calling Obama phones?