GALLUP: Romney, Obama Tied (aka: What Was That About a 5 pt Lead, Herbert?) [Archive] - Glock Talk

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Goaltender66
10-09-2012, 10:40
Flintlocker hardest hit:

And....ooops.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2012/10/gallup-polls-to-show-romney-obama-tied-among-likely-voters.html

Gallup Poll to Show Romney, Obama Tied Among Likely Voters

Former Gov. Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are virtually tied among likely voters, a new Gallup daily tracking poll will show, according to USA Today's Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page.

In previous Gallup daily polling including on Monday, Obama has held a 5 percentage-point lead among registered voters. But the Gallup poll to come Tuesday will report results from a smaller pool among those voters, those who are likely to vote. That change in the poll's method will "wipe out" the president's lead, Page said.

"Republicans are more energized and more likely to actually go and vote," she added.


No word on the internals yet. :) Interesting to see if polling outfits are shifting their weighting back to realistic turnout models yet or if they will give it another week.

aircarver
10-09-2012, 11:26
Flintlocker hardest hit:

And....ooops.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2012/10/gallup-polls-to-show-romney-obama-tied-among-likely-voters.html

Gallup Poll to Show Romney, Obama Tied Among Likely Voters



No word on the internals yet. :) Interesting to see if polling outfits are shifting their weighting back to realistic turnout models yet or if they will give it another week.

Don't they have to go to more +Dem polling to hold against the tide of debate-driven switches ? .... :supergrin:

.

Goaltender66
10-09-2012, 12:37
Flintlocker...I owe you an apology. Yes, I was very hasty in posting this, taking as I did the word of a third party as to what the poll results would be. Turns out she was incorrect and, well, so is my post. No, Romney and Obama are not tied per Gallup.

Romney is two points ahead. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx)

PRINCETON, NJ -- Mitt Romney holds a slight edge over Barack Obama -- 49% to 47% -- in Gallup's initial "likely voter" estimate, encompassing interviews from Oct. 2-8. Preferences tilt the opposite way among registered voters, 49% vs. 46% in Obama's favor.

Neither result provides a candidate with a statistically significant lead, but together they do underscore the competitive nature of the election and indicate that Romney at this point benefits from turnout patterns, given the five-point swing in his favor when the transition is made from registered voters to likely voters.

As is almost always the case in recent elections, likely voters at this point are more likely to support the Republican candidate than are all registered voters. Gallup's estimate of the vote choices of likely voters shows that Romney gains three percentage points among likely voters compared with the total registered voter pool, and Obama loses two points.


So hey.... Sorry.




:)

JFrame
10-09-2012, 12:40
Flintlocker...I owe you an apology. Yes, I was very hasty in posting this, taking as I did the word of a third party as to what the poll results would be. Turns out she was incorrect and, well, so is my post. No, Romney and Obama are not tied per Gallup.

Romney is two points ahead. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx)



So hey.... Sorry.




:)


Kudos, GT66 -- you are a big man to 'fess up when your post is in error. :beer:


.

sheriff733
10-09-2012, 12:40
Flintlocker...I owe you an apology. Yes, I was very hasty in posting this, taking as I did the word of a third party as to what the poll results would be. Turns out she was incorrect and, well, so is my post. No, Romney and Obama are not tied per Gallup.

Romney is two points ahead. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx)



So hey.... Sorry.




:)

:rofl:


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Berto
10-09-2012, 13:20
I listened to a leftist talk show co-host this morning, confused as to why only one debate caused such a shift in the polls.
I thought;
1) The 'shift' had already been there, buried in skewed polling.
2) There was also the last 4 years.

BuckeyePPC
10-09-2012, 13:21
Flintlocker...I owe you an apology. Yes, I was very hasty in posting this, taking as I did the word of a third party as to what the poll results would be. Turns out she was incorrect and, well, so is my post. No, Romney and Obama are not tied per Gallup.

Romney is two points ahead. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx)



So hey.... Sorry.




:)

I feel a group hug coming on. :grouphug:

countrygun
10-09-2012, 13:56
I listened to a leftist talk show co-host this morning, confused as to why only one debate caused such a shift in the polls.
I thought;
1) The 'shift' had already been there, buried in skewed polling.
2) There was also the last 4 years.


I have just a hunch that Obama knew some time ago that the game was over. I wouldn't be surprised if he give a somewhat better performance in the next debate but still no a "good enough" one.

When he loses the election he has the scapegoat of "The Debates" that's what caused the loss. "I was leading in the polls 'till the debates, it's the fault of the debates themselves that I lost."

Then we will hear all kinds of theories. "debates are racist/rigged/etc"

anybody feel like making a bet?

Bren
10-09-2012, 14:12
Flintlocker...I owe you an apology. Yes, I was very hasty in posting this, taking as I did the word of a third party as to what the poll results would be. Turns out she was incorrect and, well, so is my post. No, Romney and Obama are not tied per Gallup.

Romney is two points ahead. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx)



So hey.... Sorry.

:)


You know he disappeared for 2 or 3 days after the debate - if you people aren't careful, you'll just drive him into hiding again. Then who'll post "triumphant liberal" threads that are easily and amusingly disproven? Where would the entertainment come from?

ChuteTheMall
10-09-2012, 14:12
Obama still has a considerable lead among unlikely voters.


























http://i49.tinypic.com/ev75vm.jpg

gwalchmai
10-09-2012, 14:13
So all it took to destroy O's lead was a whipping in the debate? And the bandwagon shifts? All it took was somebody standing up to him, and it didn't happen before because the media was in love with him?

Isn't that sad?

I once read someone had uncovered internal Nazi memos indicating that if Hitler had encountered a Girl Scout troop at the Czechoslovakian border he would have turned back. But no one resisted because they all knew the Germans were invincible. Has the media finally admitted to not seeing O's clothes?

My God, I hope this trend continues.

lethal tupperwa
10-09-2012, 14:24
http://unskewedpolls.com/

F350
10-09-2012, 15:24
AND remember with Columbus day there are no poll results out yet that show pure post-debate stats, the total Romney surge hasn't been seen yet.

Goaltender66
10-09-2012, 15:25
So all it took to destroy O's lead was a whipping in the debate? And the bandwagon shifts? All it took was somebody standing up to him, and it didn't happen before because the media was in love with him?

Isn't that sad?

I once read someone had uncovered internal Nazi memos indicating that if Hitler had encountered a Girl Scout troop at the Czechoslovakian border he would have turned back. But no one resisted because they all knew the Germans were invincible. Has the media finally admitted to not seeing O's clothes?

My God, I hope this trend continues.

Pretty much. Remember in 300 when Leonidas tossed that spear and showed the Persians that their god-king Xerxes bled like everyone else?

Just read a fascinating article that makes the case that Obama's campaign strategy has always revolved around maintaining the appearance of winning the polls. A good read.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/10/09/can_obamas_lead_resist_the_forces_of_gravity_115721.html

Paul7
10-09-2012, 17:11
http://unskewedpolls.com/

What a surprise, only NPR has Barry up. Your tax dollars at work.

I'm sure Biden will help Barry by winning his debate.

/Sarcasm Off


PS I actually heard some uber-lib on MSNBC saying Ryan isn't in Biden's class. She's actually right.

Flintlocker
10-09-2012, 17:45
This is humorous. You twerps spent two weeks whining about how skewed the polls are and how they oversampled Democrats. Now you're celebrating a poll that oversamples Republicans. If there was every a time to acknowledge your own hypocrisy then this may be a good place to start. But I won't hold my breath.

aircarver
10-09-2012, 17:47
Oh... Go ahead. Hold yer breath ......:supergrin:

.

Goaltender66
10-09-2012, 18:00
This is humorous. You twerps spent two weeks whining about how skewed the polls are and how they oversampled Democrats. Now you're celebrating a poll that oversamples Republicans. If there was every a time to acknowledge your own hypocrisy then this may be a good place to start. But I won't hold my breath.

Oh? What's the partisan breakdown of the Gallup poll and why is it unrealistic? Also feel free to defend a D +9 sample before you start lobbing accusations of hypocrisy.






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QNman
10-09-2012, 19:31
This is humorous. You twerps spent two weeks whining about how skewed the polls are and how they oversampled Democrats. Now you're celebrating a poll that oversamples Republicans. If there was every a time to acknowledge your own hypocrisy then this may be a good place to start. But I won't hold my breath.

Isn't Gallup the very same poll you trumpeted as the beacon of truth a couple days ago?

The celebration is that even in the presence of oversampling, Romney is gaining steam.

Sam Spade
10-09-2012, 19:49
http://unskewedpolls.com/

So Gallup has Romney +2.....on a D+4.5 sample. :rofl:


Oops, read the wrong line...Gallup used a D+5! :rofl::rofl:

rgregoryb
10-09-2012, 20:13
the licker is scared he won't be able to see Sesame Street anymore, the Count had him up to 6 and it only took 12 years............