Gallup: R 51% o 45% [Archive] - Glock Talk

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PocketProtector
10-17-2012, 12:54
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx

IvanVic
10-17-2012, 13:03
Looks like Romney is the perceived winner from last night.

I wonder what DOC44 will have to say after posting this just 5 days ago:

http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1447462

Has the conspiracy suddenly ended?

MZBKA
10-17-2012, 14:24
Looks like Romney is the perceived winner from last night.

I wonder what DOC44 will have to say after posting this just 5 days ago:

http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1447462

Has the conspiracy suddenly ended?

Don't you get it? Bias exists if and only if a poll shows Obama in the lead. :P

series1811
10-17-2012, 15:08
Yeah, but you can't poll dead people, so it may not be that bad for Obama. :supergrin:

aircarver
10-17-2012, 15:10
Don't you get it? Bias exists if and only if a poll shows Obama in the lead. :P

... & they polled D+9 ..... :upeyes:

,

countrygun
10-17-2012, 15:10
Don't you get it? Bias exists if and only if a poll shows Obama in the lead. :P

With a 9 point oversampling of democrats.:upeyes:

DOC44
10-17-2012, 15:13
Looks like Romney is the perceived winner from last night.

I wonder what DOC44 will have to say after posting this just 5 days ago:

http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1447462

Has the conspiracy suddenly ended?

just think how much obama would be behind if the polling technque had not been changed.... we will never know.

Think how debate number 2 would have turned out if obama had not been in bed with candy.....:supergrin:

Doc44

ModGlock17
10-17-2012, 15:14
Don't you get it? Bias exists if and only if a poll shows Obama in the lead. :P

You need a lesson from -4.5 to +4.5 that another poster can give.

Bias is still there. If it is D+8 on this one, then the reality is closer to 55 vs 41.

Done. Time for the halo to Go find a professorship in Chicago.

MZBKA
10-17-2012, 15:34
What's wrong with sampling more Democrats than Republicans if more Americans identify with Democrats than Republicans?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

series1811
10-17-2012, 15:36
What's wrong with sampling more Democrats than Republicans if more Americans identify with Democrats than Republicans?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

What's wrong with conducting a true random poll of likely voters?

Too boring? :dunno:

countrygun
10-17-2012, 15:40
What's wrong with sampling more Democrats than Republicans if more Americans identify with Democrats than Republicans?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

That is perfectly fine if it a representation of the actual numbers. You OBVIOUSLY don't understand what "oversampling" is, but thanks for playing

IvanVic
10-17-2012, 16:00
Well, Rasmussen has it 49/48, how does that fit into this whole thing?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

ModGlock17
10-17-2012, 16:51
Well, Rasmussen has it 49/48, how does that fit into this whole thing?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The first clue is the first sentence in the 3rd paragraph, "reported as 3 day rolling ave".

countrygun
10-17-2012, 16:57
The first clue is the first sentence in the 3rd paragraph, "reported as 3 day rolling ave".

Now there you go again......

reading the details and embarrasing the people that post just the headlines

Shame on you.

ModGlock17
10-17-2012, 17:11
Now there you go again......

reading the details and embarrasing the people that post just the headlines

Shame on you.

Ahhh, just current details.

In the near future though, BHO would follow the footsteps of Jimmy, a scorned 1-term ex prez who would chime in at every opportunity for attention.

He'd go from the "anointed one" to the "annoying one" very soon.

Goaltender66
10-18-2012, 06:24
What's wrong with sampling more Democrats than Republicans if more Americans identify with Democrats than Republicans?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

I'm going to embroider a little on countrygun's response.

Party ID doesn't drive turnout models. You can point to a Party ID poll showing Ds with a 10 point advantage, but it is irrelevant if they aren't likely voters and they don't show up on Election Day. No, TURNOUT drives turnout models. I'm going to use Ohio as an example because a) the numbers are easier to work with in the microclimate and b) Ohio polling is highly relevant right now.

Back in 2008 exit polling showed a D/R/I split of 39/31/30. In that election, Obama won the state 51.5 to 46.9. Take the exit polling and apply it to the vote by party you end up with a 52.8 to 45.6 total. In other words, exit polling was off somewhat, which is expected. Anyway, applying the exit polls against the share of the vote by party and comes up with a calculated D/R/I split of 37.5/32.5/30...that's what gets you a vote of 51.6 to 46.9.

All of this math just means that while the 2008 exit polls showed D+8, in reality it was around D+5. And that means a current poll in Ohio with a sample of D+5 or greater is saying that D turnout will be at or above 2008 levels.

If you look at the polls making up the Real Clear Politics average (which I hate, but whatever), the average split is D+5.4, which assumes a 2008-level turnout. I can't think of any persuasive arguments as to how Obama will match his 2008 turnout, but I can think of some arguments as to how he won't For example, we aren't dealing with a McCain here. Romney has the resources to keep Ohio competitive all the way to November 6. This is evident in the large crowds Romney has been drawing there. The enthusiasm the Rs are showing this time around go a long way to rebutting a 2008 turnout model.

Then there are the independents. In 2008 Obama won independents by 8 points. But in the RCP averages, Romney is winning independents by about 5 points. This is another nail in the coffin for Obama's reelection chances...you can't have a 13 point loss in independents without getting your D turnout even higher than in 2008.

That Romney is showing up as close (average polling I've seen has him down by 2) in polls that are predicting a repeat of the Democrat Tsunami of 2008 is a pretty strong indicator that, come election night, a lot of turnout models are going to be shown as faulty. There is nothing hypocritical about pointing out a poll that's stacked in favor of Obama is still showing Romney competitive.

Of course, this has some implications. For example, polling outfits have been trumpeting these D+5 or greater polls for weeks now. When the actual results come in and, hypothetically, Romney wins Ohio by 52 to 46, what's the predictable response from the Left? Yep, vote fraud allegations.

jeanderson
10-18-2012, 06:57
Yeah, but you can't poll dead people, so it may not be that bad for Obama. :supergrin:

That is a factor, but so is the lack of enthusiasm on the Obama side. As I've said all along, what people say when they answer a question from someone calling them on the phone, and what (if any) action they take on election day are two different things.

Do not underestimate the lack of enthusiasm for Obama. This is a big plus for Romney.

aircarver
10-18-2012, 07:35
So capsule summary: Dem + formula is BS, but that's their story and they're stickin' to it. (Until reality overruns them and makes them look ridiculous ....:upeyes:

.

MZBKA
10-18-2012, 09:29
What's wrong with conducting a true random poll of likely voters?

Too boring? :dunno:

That. . .is. . .exactly. . .what Gallup. . .did. . .

MZBKA
10-18-2012, 09:31
That is perfectly fine if it a representation of the actual numbers. You OBVIOUSLY don't understand what "oversampling" is, but thanks for playing

Yes, I OBVIOUSLY don't understand what "oversampling" is because you wrote OBVIOUSLY really big. Great argument.:rofl:

MZBKA
10-18-2012, 09:35
....

This was a well written and thought out post. I'd note though that not every person who identifies or leans Democrat will vote for Obama, so one should expect the D+ numbers be perfectly correlated with the percentage of people who voted for Obama.

aircarver
10-18-2012, 12:01
This was a well written and thought out post. I'd note though that not every person who identifies or leans Democrat will vote for Obama, so one should expect the D+ numbers be perfectly correlated with the percentage of people who voted for Obama.

Orwell would be proud of you !


.

GAFinch
10-18-2012, 12:38
52-45% today.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx

series1811
10-18-2012, 12:40
This was a well written and thought out post. I'd note though that not every person who identifies or leans Democrat will vote for Obama, so one should expect the D+ numbers be perfectly correlated with the percentage of people who voted for Obama.

Ain't that the truth. My boss is a lifelong Democrat who we hack on every day about his support of Obama in 2008. He's not voting for him this time. :supergrin:

countrygun
10-18-2012, 13:07
Yes, I OBVIOUSLY don't understand what "oversampling" is because you wrote OBVIOUSLY really big. Great argument.:rofl:

Your words OBVIOUSLY convey the truth of my statement better than I could.

G29Reload
10-18-2012, 13:43
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx

Its now 52-45 as of today.

aircarver
10-18-2012, 13:47
Geeze.
He doesn't even have all of the 47% anymore ... :shocked:

.

quadraceryfz450
10-18-2012, 13:54
Get ready for the Riots.

OctoberRust
10-18-2012, 13:57
Obama is at 45% because the other 4% are voting Johnson.


See guys, I told you my vote for Johnson is like a vote for Romney! :tongueout::supergrin:

You all can thank me later.

Little Joe
10-18-2012, 20:05
Its now 52-45 as of today.

Have you seen this? It's a week old, but it is the first time I've seen after just stumbling on it. Very interesting. Man I hope so.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/10/09/romney-will-win-in-landslide-las-vegas-oddsmaker-doubles-down-on-prediction/?intcmp=obnetwork

domin8ss
10-18-2012, 20:30
Yay!!