RCP now has Romney ahead in electoral college [Archive] - Glock Talk

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jeanderson
10-19-2012, 12:27
I smell victory...
http://i1246.photobucket.com/albums/gg614/photobug410/RCPPoll.jpg

ModGlock17
10-19-2012, 12:31
Trust me. FL and Wisconsin will go Romney.

Diesel McBadass
10-19-2012, 12:39
i think NH and PA will go obobo, dont know on the others

IndyGunFreak
10-19-2012, 12:41
i think NH and PA will go obobo, dont know on the others

NH I'd say almost definitely. PA, I still think is a toss up.

Just from the polls, I think WI is a distant chance. Republicans are riding strong momentum there though, with the Walker recall, busting unions, etc.. so it's definitely possible.

Flintlocker
10-19-2012, 12:51
Interesting.

Here are their polling histories for three states they consider "toss ups".

PA http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

MI http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

NV http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

All three are pretty much solid Obama.

Maybe they detect some trend that others are not.

Flintlocker
10-19-2012, 12:55
Wisconsin will go Romney.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

And 538 has Wisconsin at 81%.

So I'd have to say you're out on a limb on that one.

MZBKA
10-19-2012, 12:58
Trust me. FL and Wisconsin will go Romney.

Some polls have shown Romney ahead in FL. I doubt Romney will win Wisconsin.

It's very difficult to find a scenario where Romney wins without winning Ohio, and right now, he's still behind in Ohio.

jdavionic
10-19-2012, 13:04
Not that I put a lot of faith in polls, however I do expect they will be working to reduce bias and improve accuracy as we get closer to the election. Otherwise, I doubt they will be well funded the next time.

Rasmussen has:
NH & OH about even.
FL Romney
Electoral College...about even.

Flintlocker
10-19-2012, 13:27
An interesting tidbit about RCP is that Steve Forbes has a controlling interest. There's no doubt that RCP is quite popular but I'm guessing that Forbes has no compunction against putting his thumb on the scale.

jeanderson
10-19-2012, 13:30
It's very difficult to find a scenario where Romney wins without winning Ohio, and right now, he's still behind in Ohio.
Agreed. I've been playing around with different scenarios using RCP's website and an iPad app from Fox that lets you set each state's outcome. Very difficult to have Romney win without Ohio.

countrygun
10-19-2012, 13:31
An interesting tidbit about RCP is that Steve Forbes has a controlling interest. There's no doubt that RCP is quite popular but I'm guessing that Forbes has no compunction against putting his thumb on the scale.

Des anyone need to mention the White House putting their thumb on the scale by calling a major pollster in to "discuss" their methodology?

Kirishiac
10-19-2012, 13:50
Breitbart has an article showing with one exception(2004) over the last 30years that Ohio is always redder than the national average. I'm still not sold on these +8 D polls either. It will be close, no doubt, but Romney Carries Fl, VA, OH with good chances at CO, NH and the fact that he's within the margin of error in PA, WI should worry Obama.

countrygun
10-19-2012, 14:07
Breitbart has an article showing with one exception(2004) over the last 30years that Ohio is always redder than the national average. I'm still not sold on these +8 D polls either. It will be close, no doubt, but Romney Carries Fl, VA, OH with good chances at CO, NH and the fact that he's within the margin of error in PA, WI should worry Obama.


In a "predictions" thread here about a month ago I said that it was quite possible that this election would break the "Ohio centered statistical model"

Ohio's big feature has really been it's correct choice in previous elections, but that is really no more than an interesting factiod. If you level the stats by going back to 1960, the first election with our current 50 states this will be the 13th presidential election. Statistically it is not amazing that one of 50 states has a 100% record. It is just "interesting. Every election many "Always" and "Never" factoids are disproven and "firsts" happen.

Ohio's record has way overvalued it's chips in the game. I strongly suspect that Romney will take it, but I won't be surprised, when the smoke clears on the morning of the 7th to find that Romney would have one without it.

ModGlock17
10-19-2012, 14:30
Agreed. I've been playing around with different scenarios using RCP's website and an iPad app from Fox that lets you set each state's outcome. Very difficult to have Romney win without Ohio.

That apps is kind of cool. I've been fiddling with it.

series1811
10-20-2012, 07:38
Well, if the last couple of weeks are any indication on which way the election is starting to turn, Romney can probably count on winning most of the toss up states.

Obama seems to be reduced to more and more attack ads, that just emphasize that he can't talk about his record. I've heard more and more people joking about Obama's explanation for why the gas prices were so low when he took over. When you start to become a joke, the end is near, and Obama is a joke with most of the people I talk with.

jakebrake
10-20-2012, 07:41
i think NH and PA will go obobo, dont know on the others

i don't know. from what i can see outside of philly, the public is disgusted with oblameo.

Diesel McBadass
10-20-2012, 14:27
i don't know. from what i can see outside of philly, the public is disgusted with oblameo.

well, it was solidly for him a little whle back, don't think opinions will sway that much, im skeptical of calling it a given

ModGlock17
10-20-2012, 15:45
...

Ohio's record has way overvalued it's chips in the game. I strongly suspect that Romney will take it, but I won't be surprised, when the smoke clears on the morning of the 7th to find that Romney would have one without it.

The challenge in Ohio is that many folks have already voted.

G29Reload
10-20-2012, 18:09
In the final stretch, the undecideds tend to break 2-1 for the challenger.

THough there are less of them than ever before with the high polarization factor.

The fence sitters amaze me. Are you really that stupid? Still havent figured it out?

When I think of the town hall debate, prez#2, those people weren't undecided. Horse****e.

Like the lady with the AWB question?
AND it was at Hofstra, on Long ISLAND?
As in, Chuck Schumer's back yard?

They should NEVER have a debate in such partisan zipcodes.

CO and FL are great places to hold debates. Swing states, where you can get at least a shot at fairness. But the audience in #2 was loaded.

countrygun
10-20-2012, 18:18
In the final stretch, the undecideds tend to break 2-1 for the challenger.

THough there are less of them than ever before with the high polarization factor.

The fence sitters amaze me. Are you really that stupid? Still havent figured it out?

When I think of the town hall debate, prez#2, those people weren't undecided. Horse****e.

Like the lady with the AWB question?
AND it was at Hofstra, on Long ISLAND?
As in, Chuck Schumer's back yard?

They should NEVER have a debate in such partisan zipcodes.

CO and FL are great places to hold debates. Swing states, where you can get at least a shot at fairness. But the audience in #2 was loaded.

That's what I thought. "You mean to tell me there is an undecided voter within a hundred miles? Sure thing."

That "applause" during the debate should have been enough proof

G29Reload
10-20-2012, 18:19
NH I'd say almost definitely. PA, I still think is a toss up.

Just from the polls, I think WI is a distant chance. Republicans are riding strong momentum there though, with the Walker recall, busting unions, etc.. so it's definitely possible.

NH I had heard was Romney's tho there was a little backsliding.

I had written off PA to bozo but it looks like his lead is now approaching the margin of error. 4pts I think.

series1811
10-21-2012, 08:56
It's not the actual poll numbers that matter so much as the trend they all show: Romney picking up support, and Obama losing it.

ModGlock17
10-21-2012, 14:42
It's not the actual poll numbers that matter so much as the trend they all show: Romney picking up support, and Obama losing it.

Exactly. That's what I meant by snapshots vs. trends. I think it went over the head of some.

Kirishiac
10-21-2012, 20:48
The challenge in Ohio is that many folks have already voted.

Right now in 2008 it was a 20pt advantage to Obama, now it's 7 in early voting in Ohio. Also, early voting participation in the two most democratic counties are down 17% and 23% from 2008.

windpoint
10-21-2012, 20:57
We have a lot of fraud in Wisconsin. And we have the Rev Jesse coming to Milwaukee tomorrow to encourage Vote Early, Vote Twice. But the recall was a landslide.

Guss
10-21-2012, 21:50
Oops - Things sure change fast...
http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php

Gotta watch that debate tomorrow.

certifiedfunds
10-21-2012, 22:08
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

And 538 has Wisconsin at 81%.

So I'd have to say you're out on a limb on that one.

They're counting the dead vote.

countrygun
10-21-2012, 22:10
Oops - Things sure change fast...
http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php

Gotta watch that debate tomorrow.

Why watch the debate?

Look at the dates on the polls in your citation under the "unskewed polls" button and see the methodology. Compare the dates to the debates.

Your "poll summary" is a FAIL.

cowboy1964
10-21-2012, 22:16
It really is going to come down to Ohio.

certifiedfunds
10-21-2012, 22:21
It really is frightening how few states it takes to elect a democrat President.

BTW, WTF is New Mexico thinking?

Armchair Commando
10-21-2012, 22:35
The challenge in Ohio is that many folks have already voted.

I've converted so many people to vote.for romney this election its mind boggling and everyone i converted voted for obama is 2008. im not bsing when i say i converted at least 30 people just by myself at work.

Outdoor Hub mobile, the outdoor information engine

Guss
10-21-2012, 22:43
Why watch the debate?

Look at the dates on the polls in your citation under the "unskewed polls" button and see the methodology. Compare the dates to the debates.

Your "poll summary" is a FAIL.
Sorry about the old link. Here is the more recent one from the 20th -
http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php
Obama 281, Romney 257