I live in a swing state, Colorado; I get at least 1 poll call a day, yesterday it was 3, I get called by Rasmussen around once a week, at least with Rasmussen it is a live person. Last night I asked the lady if was common to call the same people weekly, she said yes that reliable people are called to look for shifts in opinion, I said "talk to ya next week" and she just laughed.
Poll numbers can act to cause discouragement or excitement, I want to keep Republican numbers up to maybe encourage people inclined to vote Republican to get out and vote.
This is how a real poll works.
Copied in full with permission.
A proven winner in survey research and public opinion polling
10 N. Progress Avenue
Harrisburg, PA 17109
Phone: (717) 233-8850
Cell Phone: (717) 215-1122
James Lee, President
To: All Media and Interested Parties
RE: PA Presidential/US Senate Statewide Poll Results DATE: October 18, 2012
Following is a brief overview of our latest statewide poll conducted in the Keystone State from October 11th – 13th (prior to the 10/16 debate) with 1,376 likely voters. The poll was commissioned on behalf of the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania, with permission to release its complete findings. Below is a summary of key findings, followed by top line results and an explanation of survey methodology
. GOP Nominee Mitt Romney has taken the lead over Barack Obama in the Keystone State by a 49% to 45% margin, reversing Obama’s 2-point lead in SP&R’s last poll conducted 10/3-10/6. This marks the first time any publicly released poll has shown Romney with a lead. An additional 2% are voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, with 1% for Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Only 2% remain undecided.
. Romney’s lead represents a 6-point jump in support when compared with 43% support this summer, while Obama’s 45% shows 3-point drop from a high of 48% in past polls. Romney continues to keep a strong lock on the GOP vote, winning Republicans by an 86-9 margin, while still syphoning 18% of the Democratic vote mainly from social and cultural Democrats, affectionately referred to as “Reagan Democrats”. Romney also leads by 12 points among registered Independents (47-35) - a statistically significant finding perhaps the first time proving Independent and swing voters are breaking his way.
. Romney’s lead is proof his strong debate performances are having a lasting impact, as evidenced by our last poll conducted 10/4-10/6 which showed Mitt Romney with a healthy favorable image (+6 positive, or 48-42 favorable) and even better than Obama’s (+3 positive, or 50-47). This is clear evidence the debates have helped not only win over swing and undecided voters, but are neutralizing the negative perceptions Pennsylvanians had of Romney from negative TV ads sponsored by Obama-supported super PACs. Furthermore, regional support shows Romney has managed to run up big margins in Western Pa. with conservative Democrats and at the same time make significant inroads in the socially-moderate, vote-rich Philadelphia suburbs where Romney now leads 48-46. Winning the suburban Philadelphia collar counties would be an historic accomplishment since no Republican presidential nominee has carried these counties in decades.
. Also in the poll, GOP Senate nominee Tom Smith leads Democratic US Senator Bob Casey 48-46, technically within the poll’s 2.64% margin of error. This is perhaps the first poll showing Smith with a lead – representing a 12-point gain from polling this summer while Casey’s support has flat-lined. SP&R was the first to show this race a tossup, with Casey leading only 46-41 in a September poll sponsored by the Pittsburgh Tribune Review.
10 N. Progress Avenue
Harrisburg, PA 17109
Phone: (717) 233-8850
Final Top Line Survey Results
PA Statewide – Presidential Tracking Poll (Automated)
Sample Size: 1,376 Likely General Election Voters
Conducted: October 11-13, 2012
Hello, this is Voter Survey Service conducting a 2-minute survey in Pennsylvania today.
Your answers to this survey will remain both strictly confidential and anonymous.
Q1. Thinking ahead to the upcoming election for President on Tuesday, November 6th, please rate your
chances of voting in this election as excellent, good, fair or poor? For excellent, press 1. For good, press 2.
For fair, press 3. For poor, press 4.
1. Excellent 1,321 96%
2. Good 55 04%
3. Fair (TERMINATE)
4. Poor (TERMINATE)
Q2. Which issue will most influence your vote in the election for President? Is it the candidate’s position on
(ROTATE ITEMS) job creation and improving the economy; taxes, spending and budget deficits; international
issues and dealing with threats from foreign nations; social or cultural issues like abortion or gay marriage;
strengthening and protecting entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare?
…..Which of these you just heard is most important?
For improving the economy, press 1. For taxes, spending and deficits, press 2. For international issues and
dealing with foreign threats, press 3. For social or cultural issues, press 4. For strengthening and protecting
entitlement programs, press 5. If something else, press 6. To refuse any question throughout this survey,
567 (41%) 1. Job creation and improving the economy
302 (22%) 2. Taxes, spending and budget deficits
84 (06%) 3. International issues and dealing with foreign nations
177 (13%) 4. Social or cultural issues like abortion or gay marriage
171 (12%) 5. Strengthening and protecting entitlement programs
45 (03%) 6. Other
Q3. If the election for president were held today and the candidates were… (ROTATE CHOICES) Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate, Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, Jill Stein (Stine), the Green Party candidate – for whom would you vote?
To vote for Republican Mitt Romney, press 1. To vote for Democrat Barack Obama, press 2. To vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, press 3. To vote for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, press 4. If undecided, press 5.
1. Mitt Romney 675 49%
2. Barack Obama 625 45%
3. Jill Stein 10 01%
4. Gary Johnson 28 02%
5. Undecided 32 02%
(IF UNDECIDED, ASK Q4)
Q4. Since you are still undecided, are you leaning towards voting for any of the candidates?
For Mitt Romney, press 1. For Barack Obama, press 2. For Jill Stein, press 3. For Gary Johnson, press 4. If undecided, press 5.
1. Mitt Romney 13 42%
2. Barack Obama 2 05%
3. Jill Stein 1 02%
4. Gary Johnson 2 06%
5. Undecided 14 44%
Q5. If the election for United States Senate were held today would you vote for Tom Smith, the Republican candidate, or Bob Casey, Jr., the Democratic candidate? (ROTATE NAMES)
To vote for Republican Tom Smith, press 1. To vote for Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., press 2. To vote for another candidate, press 3. If undecided, press 4.
1. Smith 660 48%
2. Casey, Jr. 638 46%
3. Other 15 01%
4. Undecided 63 05%
Now, following are a few demographic questions to ensure we are getting a representative sample…
Q6. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, Democrat, Independent or something else?
If Republican, press 1. If Democrat, press 2. If Independent or something else, press 3.
1. Republican 578 42%
2. Democrat 660 48%
3. Independent/other 138 10%
Q7. Is your age range in years between 18 to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to 59 or 60 and over?
If 18 to 19 years old, press 1. If 30 to 44 years old, press 2. If 45 to 59 years old, press 3. If 60 years old or older, press 4.
1. 18-29 138 10%
2. 30-44 344 25%
3. 45-59 440 32%
4. 60+ 454 33%
Q8. Are you a male or female? If male, press 1. If female, press 2.
1. Male 660 48%
2. Female 716 52%
Q9. Is your main racial background of Caucasian, Hispanic, African American or another background?
If Caucasian, press 1. If Hispanic, press 2. If African-American, press 3. If another background, press 4.
1. White/Caucasian 1,211 88%
2. Hispanic 14 01%
3. African-American 138 10%
4. Other 14 01%
Thank you for your participation in this survey conducted by Voter Survey Service. Offices located at 10 N. Progress Avenue, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17109. Telephone number 717-233-8850.
Q10. Area (from record):
55 (04%) 1. Northwest [Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Venango, Warren, Forest]
151 (11%) 2. Southwest [Lawrence, Beaver, Washington, Greene, Fayette, Westmoreland, Indiana, Armstrong, Butler]
179 (13%) 3. The “T”/Central [Jefferson, Elk, McKean, Cameron, Clarion, Clearfield, Centre, Cambria, Somerset, Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, Huntingdon, Blair, Potter, Tioga, Bradford, Susquehanna, Wyoming, Sullivan, Lycoming, Clinton, Union, Snyder, Northumberland, Montour, Columbia, Mifflin, Juniata]
179 (13%) 4. Northeast/Lehigh Valley [Luzerne, Carbon, Monroe, Schuylkill, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Northampton, Pike, Wayne]
234 (17%) 5. South Central [Perry, Cumberland, Adams, York, Lancaster, Lebanon, Dauphin, Berks]
303 (22%) 6. Southeast [Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks]
138 (10%) 7. Allegheny County
138 (10%) 8. Philadelphia
Q11. Voted – 1 or 4 or better in G11, G10, G09 and/or G08, as well as new reg.’s since 11/11 (from record):
0X 38 03%
1X 218 16%
2X 389 28%
3X 292 21%
4X 441 32%
Methodology: This poll was commissioned by Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania. Completed interviews were conducted October 11-13, 2012 using automated polling software both owned by Susquehanna Polling and Research and programmed by our internal survey associates. The universe for the poll includes likely general election voters who have prior vote history in at least one of G11, G10, G09 and/or G08, as well as new registered voters since November 2011. Pre-qualified voters are then asked to complete the survey by scoring their answers to a pre-recorded series of questions using their telephone key pads. The surveys are carefully monitored to ensure a representative sample of Pennsylvania’s electorate is achieved based on party, geographic location, age, gender and other demographics. Results can be statistically weighted to adjust for either an over or under-sample of respondents within demographic groups. The margin of error for a sample size of 1,376 interviews is +/-2.64% at the 95% confidence level.
SP&R is a leading survey research and public opinion polling firm, and conducts polling primarily on behalf of candidates for public office (GOP only) in PA, NJ, NY, FL and DE, as well as for numerous corporate and media clients. According to a composite listing of polls by realclearpolitics.com SP&R was the most accurate polling firm in the 2010 elections in both the PA US Senate race (Toomey/Sestak) and the Florida Gubernatorial Primary (Scott/McCollum).
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