Is it just me or weather forecasts are ALWAYS wrong? [Archive] - Glock Talk

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Kozel
10-22-2012, 10:45
Is it just me or weather forecasts are ALWAYS wrong?

Seems like EVERY time I scheduled some kind of outdoor activity based on weather forecast for next 24 hours I ended up loosing that day. Weatherman on TV should be moved to cartoon channel so that he entertains more people with all his moving maps, dopplers, shmopplers, satellite pictures and weather stations.

Monday they say that Tuesday is going to be sunny. When it rains all day on Tuesday they say that Wednesday is going to be sunny. Wednesday is same as Tuesday forecast for sunshine moves to Friday.
Even 12 hours forecast is often wrong!

Now. I know that weather is not the same thing as climate but basically same people that cannot predict weather 12 hours in advance tell us that hundred of years from now temperature is going to be one degree warmer and we are going to die from Global Warming, Global Climate Change and/or next Ice Age.

Lone Wolf8634
10-22-2012, 10:55
George Carlin - Weatherman - napisy PL - YouTube
George Carlin 'The Hippy Dippy Weatherman' - YouTube

Tvov
10-22-2012, 11:09
Weather forecasts are ridiculous. I look online at the forecast, then run the "Doppler radar" past few hours... and they don't match. I can see where the rain will end up in the next few hours. Seems like most forecasts are all computer generated, and the computer programs just aren't advanced enough to get it right.

I remember years ago (too many!) watching the weather forecast on TV. The weather man had a felt board with a map of the area, and he would attach by velco clouds and sun where needed. The forecasts seemed much more accurate back then.

1-2man
10-22-2012, 11:11
I wouldn't say always but definitely quite frequently.

Dennis in MA
10-22-2012, 11:23
I dunno. I caught a show on Discovery last night that said the government and corporations controlled the weather. So blame Obama AND Romney! :rofl:

I only watched about 8 minutes, but they said that cloud seeding was the tip of the iceberg and SUCCESSFUL since the 1960's. :rofl:

Walk Soft
10-22-2012, 11:31
You're right.Yesterday they were saying that today it'd be sunny all day with no chance for rain.It has rained twice and have yet to see sun.My job revolves around the weather so I pay attention to what they say,but when I wake in the mornings and look at the radar and what fronts are going where,that's how I procede with the day.

Caver 60
10-22-2012, 12:12
Weather forecasts are ridiculous. I look online at the forecast, then run the "Doppler radar" past few hours... and they don't match. I can see where the rain will end up in the next few hours. Seems like most forecasts are all computer generated, and the computer programs just aren't advanced enough to get it right.

I remember years ago (too many!) watching the weather forecast on TV. The weather man had a felt board with a map of the area, and he would attach by velco clouds and sun where needed. The forecasts seemed much more accurate back then.

Right on. There used to be people who were actual weather forecasters. Now days they just go with what the computer forecast predicts.

I also do the 'check the forecast/watch the radar loop' trick.

As a cattle producer, I have found there is another corollary to Murphy's law. "If the weather man says there is a 10 or 20 percent chance of rain, and I have cut hay on the ground to bale tomorrow, there is actually about a 95 percent chance it will rain. But if there is no hay down and we need rain, they can give a 90 percent chance of rain and it won't rain.'

Where else can you get a job where you're wrong 80 percent of the time, and still keep your job?

CitizenOfDreams
10-22-2012, 12:29
Where else can you get a job where you're wrong 80 percent of the time, and still keep your job?

Wall Street?

Glock&KimberLady
10-22-2012, 12:41
I only listen to the Winter Storm Watches/Warnings. Everything else, I rely n radar and sometimes NOAA to give me a general idea.

My friends all get the weather from me. :cool: Which isn't to say I've never forecasted a foot of snow and gotten a few inches before...

devildog2067
10-22-2012, 13:01
I know that weather is not the same thing as climate but basically same people that cannot predict weather 12 hours in advance tell us that hundred of years from now temperature is going to be one degree warmer

What are my chances of predicting the aggregate outcome of 1,000 coin flips? They're pretty darn good.

What are my chances of predicting the outcome of a single coin flip? They're 50/50 no matter what you do.

Predicting long term trends is often easier, both scientifically and mathematically, than predicting single events in the near term.

RonS
10-22-2012, 13:56
I expect it depends on where you live. Mine is pretty reliable for a couple of days out. I suspect in parts of Florida for example, "Hot and Sunny with an Afternoon Shower" pretty much works every time.

Glock_Convert
10-22-2012, 14:04
Where else can you get a job where you're wrong 80 percent of the time, and still keep your job?

Uh, the Obama cabinet?:D



Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

hockeyrcks9901
10-22-2012, 14:17
I expect it depends on where you live. Mine is pretty reliable for a couple of days out. I suspect in parts of Florida for example, "Hot and Sunny with an Afternoon Shower" pretty much works every time.

Pretty close in Florida... I go by the 90-90-50 rule. 90 degrees 90% humidity 50% chance of rain. It works most of the year

Kozel
10-22-2012, 14:24
=Predicting long term trends is often easier, both scientifically and mathematically, than predicting single events in the near term.

So, if you cannot predict one event 12 hours in advance then you are much better at predicting trend 100 years from now? Ohhh… it makes sense now! “Scientifically and mathematically” that is.

How do you say “you are full of it” in scientific language?



.

devildog2067
10-22-2012, 14:31
So if you cannot predict one event 12 hours in advance then you are much better at predicting trend 100 years from now? Ohhh… it makes sense now! “Scientifically and mathematically” that is.

I gave what I thought was a very easy to understand, concrete example.

Imagine I flip a coin 100 times. It's impossible to predict (better than 50/50) what the outcome of any particular coin toss will be, whether it's the first one or the 100th one.

However, I *can* easily predict that about half of the tosses will come up heads and about half will come up tails.

By analogy (and I understand this isn't an exact analogy) it's difficult to predict the temperature tomorrow. It's essentially impossible to predict the temperature 100 days from now.

However, it's reasonably doable to predict the average temperature for the next 100 days (i.e., "it'll be a mild winter" or "we think this summer will be hotter than usual").

There's a difference between predicting the outcome of a single event or the value of a single data point, and predicting an average or overall trend.

No matter how much you'd like to make fun of it, my statement is both scientifically and mathematically true.

devildog2067
10-22-2012, 14:31
How do you say “you are full of it” in scientific language?

"Kozel"

Resqu2
10-22-2012, 14:33
Heard someone say if they gave the weatherman a window in his office the forecast would immediately improve, I believe that.

Kozel
10-22-2012, 14:40
I gave what I thought was a very easy to understand, concrete example.

Imagine I flip a coin 100 times. It's impossible to predict (better than 50/50) what the outcome of any particular coin toss will be, whether it's the first one or the 100th one.

However, I *can* easily predict that about half of the tosses will come up heads and about half will come up tails.

By analogy (and I understand this isn't an exact analogy) it's difficult to predict the temperature tomorrow. It's essentially impossible to predict the temperature 100 days from now.

However, it's reasonably doable to predict the average temperature for the next 100 days (i.e., "it'll be a mild winter" or "we think this summer will be hotter than usual").

There's a difference between predicting the outcome of a single event or the value of a single data point, and predicting an average or overall trend.

No matter how much you'd like to make fun of it, my statement is both scientifically and mathematically true.

What are you doing for a living?

You must be a weatherman!

Talk a lot and make absolutely no sense! It is your job!

devildog2067
10-22-2012, 14:45
Talk a lot and make absolutely no sense!

I have a feeling most of GT will follow that explanation just fine. Are coin flips too complicated for you to understand?

inthefrey
10-22-2012, 14:45
About 3 days is all we'll get till technology improves. Here's what the boys over at the NWS got his year...

LOOK ON PAGE 7 http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/pdfs/FY13_Briefing_021612_final.pdf

Kozel
10-22-2012, 14:50
I have a feeling most of GT will follow that explanation just fine. Are coin flips too complicated for you to understand?

Coin flips by weatherman from Skokie are just as reliable and entertaining as coin flips by weatherman in most parts of the country except Hawaii and Floriduh where coin has “heads” on both sides.

Scientists living in caves under France of all places are the best at flipping coins. They have been flipping billions of coins for many years and they have yet to figure out ….. anything.

devildog2067
10-22-2012, 15:04
Scientists living in caves under France of all places are the best at flipping coins. They have been flipping billions of coins for many years and they have yet to figure out ….. anything.

Irony is arguing that CERN has "yet to figure out anything" on the World Wide Web that was invented at CERN.

Kozel
10-22-2012, 15:08
Irony is arguing that CERN has "yet to figure out anything" on the World Wide Web that was invented at CERN.

Are you saying that Al Gore did not invent the inteweb?!?!

Ya all cave dwelling scientists must be smoking some good stuff down there!

Inventing the Internet - YouTube

inthefrey
10-22-2012, 15:09
Irony is arguing that CERN has "yet to figure out anything" on the World Wide Web that was invented at CERN.

I didn't know Al Gore was employed by CERN...:rofl:

Lone Wolf8634
10-22-2012, 15:11
It's really quite entertaining watching a train wreck in progress.

nmk
10-22-2012, 15:42
So, if you cannot predict one event 12 hours in advance then you are much better at predicting trend 100 years from now? Ohhh… it makes sense now! “Scientifically and mathematically” that is.

How do you say “you are full of it” in scientific language?



.

It used to bother me when people chose to remain ignorant. Now I just accept that they are not interested in the truth, just their version of it.

Arguing against simple math....:wavey:

JMS
10-22-2012, 15:53
I have a feeling most of GT will follow that explanation just fine. Are coin flips too complicated for you to understand?

In Mother Russia, coin flips you.

Kozel
10-22-2012, 18:24
It used to bother me when people chose to remain ignorant. Now I just :
became ignorant myself.

All those super smart scientists make definitive statements and then reverse opinions few months, years later.

Just few weeks ago they said that theory or relativity is no longer valid then they quietly backpedaled few days later.

Scientists looks like crowd of 333333 stooges running around poking each other in the eye all the while telling the rest of the people that they know exactly what they are doing.

true believer
10-22-2012, 18:27
Is it just me or weather forecasts are ALWAYS wrong?

Seems like EVERY time I scheduled some kind of outdoor activity based on weather forecast for next 24 hours I ended up loosing that day. Weatherman on TV should be moved to cartoon channel so that he entertains more people with all his moving maps, dopplers, shmopplers, satellite pictures and weather stations.

Monday they say that Tuesday is going to be sunny. When it rains all day on Tuesday they say that Wednesday is going to be sunny. Wednesday is same as Tuesday forecast for sunshine moves to Friday.
Even 12 hours forecast is often wrong!

Now. I know that weather is not the same thing as climate but basically same people that cannot predict weather 12 hours in advance tell us that hundred of years from now temperature is going to be one degree warmer and we are going to die from Global Warming, Global Climate Change and/or next Ice Age.

nope, they are wrong a lot and its not u..i didnt read the whole thread but it drives me crazy to!!
and the next day they go on like nothing happened...:steamed:

devildog2067
10-22-2012, 18:29
All those super smart scientists make definitive statements and then reverse opinions few months, years later.

Just few weeks ago they said that theory or relativity is no longer valid then they quietly backpedaled few days later.

Doesn't it bother you in the least that you're entirely wrong about what happened? Every single word of that sentence is wrong.

NeverMore1701
10-22-2012, 18:32
It's really quite entertaining watching a train wreck in progress.

You mean every thread by the OP? Yeah.

Drjones
10-22-2012, 18:52
Is it just me or weather forecasts are ALWAYS wrong?



Yep, just about 100% of the time. Weathermen are so bad, if they ever predicted that the sun was going to rise tomorrow, they would end the world, because it wouldn't rise, just to prove them wrong.

Being a democrat & a weatherman are the only jobs where you can be wrong 100% of the time & still keep your job.

samuse
10-22-2012, 20:35
They're always mostly wrong.

Earlier this year I had a big hole in the ground (150'Wx350'Lx17'D) opened up for loading trucks, the weather predicted a 15% chance of .25" of rain.

I got 15" in about 6 hours.

I didn't have a watershed diversion in place... he hole was completely filled.

NEVER make plans on the weather.

RenoF250
10-22-2012, 20:44
It depends on the time of year and the area. They have figured out sunny and warm is fairly safe in the summer here but they cannot do the winter at all.

I find the derivative of the forecast is somewhat accurate. If you see it go from 20% to 40% chance of rain fairly quickly then there will likely be rain. If it stays steady 50% chance rain is unlikely.