Lead in gasoline crime link...Veeeery interesting [Archive] - Glock Talk

PDA

View Full Version : Lead in gasoline crime link...Veeeery interesting


Hicksville Kid
01-04-2013, 07:27
With violent crime in the news today.....here's a interesting bit of reporting from, of all places, Mother Jones. It's long and with lots of backup. If you have the time it is a very interesting read.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline

Discuss

MtBaldy
01-04-2013, 07:54
Very interesting.

Flying-Dutchman
01-04-2013, 08:09
An astounding example of lying with statistics.

Crime is a complicated issue driven by demography and poverty.

Most houses built before 1960 have lead paint yet somehow most did not ingest paint chips or paint dust while others did.

This is not to say lead is not bad but somehow most of us born before 1979 survived without being poisoned by lead.

Wake_jumper
01-04-2013, 08:57
It's just a coincidence. The author is an apologist for bad behavior.

series1811
01-04-2013, 08:58
It's just a coincidence. The author is an apologist for bad behavior.

Looking for anything to avoid people having to take responsibility for their own actions.

Cali-Glock
01-04-2013, 10:37
Intriguing. As a Lead Inspector/Risk Assessor I find this very interesting, and I have a healthy amount of sceptisim about much of this.

But while this study and conclusions may have some problems, the attacks you are making on it are falacious; lead poisoning, lower IQ and mental defects are caused by lead. There is zero debate about that. Children's brains are still physicalltdeveloping and growing until about 6 years of age. Exposure to very low levels of lead from conception through age 6 will at a minimum reduce IQ and at worse cause a host of major mental and physical function problems.

The issue is not large chips of paint, but micro-particles found in the air, dust, soil and water. Some major sources of these micro particles come from deteriorating lead paint; lead pipes, leaded gasoline and deposits of lead dust in the soil from these and other sources.

This is a huge problem in older buildings where the lead paint is starting to deteriorate and release the lead in the form of dust.

The evidence of this problem; the source are irrefutable.

Back to the article and the claims it makes; as I said; I view it with a lot of scepticism, but it certainly warrants a closer look one way or another.

MtBaldy
01-04-2013, 10:40
Back to the article and the claims it makes; as I said; I view it with a lot of scepticism, but it certainly warrants a closer look one way or another.

My feelings exactly. Certainly a lot of work went into it and it does seem to provide a good fit with the data but I would want to see more before I buy it.

elsolo
01-04-2013, 11:55
I missed the statistical analysis part of the study where they do confidence limits, chi square, that kind of thing.

They quit selling leaded gas in the early 1990's.

The first generation of kids breathing unleaded air have only been adults for a couple years. One would expect the graph to show a drop about 15 yrs after the lead ban.

No mention of any other countries, their crime rates, and when they phased out tetraethyl lead. If crime rate is affected by poisoning the minds of our children with a neurotoxin, this effect should be seen across the globe.

Hicksville Kid
01-04-2013, 12:31
I missed the statistical analysis part of the study where they do confidence limits, chi square, that kind of thing.

They quit selling leaded gas in the early 1990's.

The first generation of kids breathing unleaded air have only been adults for a couple years. One would expect the graph to show a drop about 15 yrs after the lead ban.

No mention of any other countries, their crime rates, and when they phased out tetraethyl lead. If crime rate is affected by poisoning the minds of our children with a neurotoxin, this effect should be seen across the globe.

The study the writer talks about has a lot more detail than the article. The study is linked within the article. Here is a direct link.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w13097.pdf?new_window=1

Cali-Glock
01-04-2013, 12:50
I missed the statistical analysis part of the study where they do confidence limits, chi square, that kind of thing.

They quit selling leaded gas in the early 1990's.

The first generation of kids breathing unleaded air have only been adults for a couple years. One would expect the graph to show a drop about 15 yrs after the lead ban.

No mention of any other countries, their crime rates, and when they phased out tetraethyl lead. If crime rate is affected by poisoning the minds of our children with a neurotoxin, this effect should be seen across the globe.

The phase out of lead from gas in the US started in the 1970s and continued until the mid 1990s. But most leaded gas emissions were eliminated by the 1990s.

The article cites world wide correlations of lead and crime as well as studies in several specific countries correlating crime numbers and leaded fuel use.

It is good to be sceptical but the correlation is not limited to US experiences and figures.

elsolo
01-04-2013, 13:40
The study the writer talks about has a lot more detail than the article. The study is linked within the article. Here is a direct link.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w13097.pdf?new_window=1

Thanks, I did read it.
Like I said before, there is little statistical analysis, the only method used was elasticity. They did R ^2 but the values were <.3 until they adjusted enough variables out of the equation until the number jived a little better.

Paper was written by economists, not scientists, there is a big difference in how they prove causation.

Bren
01-04-2013, 13:59
Yeah, must be lead - otherwise he'd have to talk about the bad side of things like hippies and the civil rights movement and anti-government/anti-social attitudes of the 60's and 70's and he doesn't want to do that.

Just left-wing tinfoil hattery.

GT4494
01-04-2013, 14:24
So why aren't all small airplane pilots and mechanics crazed killers???

AV Gas still has lead and they breathe a lot of it... :shocked:

Detectorist
01-04-2013, 14:27
There are a variety of environment issues which need to be addressed, besides lead.

Poor folks didn't paint their homes as frequently as more affluent folks so lead wasn't covered up as much in poor communities.

Poverty breeds discontent and despair, which leads many to drug use. I'm convinced that the very high rates of crime in some communities can be explained, at least partially, by the effect of drugs and alcohol, consumed during pregnancy, and even before. We already know that alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking by expectant mothers can affect birth weight and IQ in children. I think that over use of drugs can affect one's genetics, and not in a good way. These defects can be passed on to children.

There is an interesting study out there which I can't find at the moment, which concludes that if one's grandparents ate too much, the obesity will be passed on from generation to generation.

.264 magnum
01-04-2013, 18:31
Intriguing. As a Lead Inspector/Risk Assessor I find this very interesting, and I have a healthy amount of sceptisim about much of this.

But while this study and conclusions may have some problems, the attacks you are making on it are falacious; lead poisoning, lower IQ and mental defects are caused by lead. There is zero debate about that. Children's brains are still physicalltdeveloping and growing until about 6 years of age. Exposure to very low levels of lead from conception through age 6 will at a minimum reduce IQ and at worse cause a host of major mental and physical function problems.

The issue is not large chips of paint, but micro-particles found in the air, dust, soil and water. Some major sources of these micro particles come from deteriorating lead paint; lead pipes, leaded gasoline and deposits of lead dust in the soil from these and other sources.

This is a huge problem in older buildings where the lead paint is starting to deteriorate and release the lead in the form of dust.

The evidence of this problem; the source are irrefutable.

Back to the article and the claims it makes; as I said; I view it with a lot of scepticism, but it certainly warrants a closer look one way or another.

1. No question lead is bad mo-jo for kids.
2. Is there a great prevalence of mental and physical deficiencies in Washington DC? There is little question that WDC has the worst modern/big city lead problem in the US.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead_contamination_in_Washington,_D.C._drinking_water


3. I'd say the Mother Jones article is balderdash. As incarcerating more bad guys for longer periods of time recently also correlates with the recent decreases in crime rates.

.264 magnum
01-04-2013, 18:38
The study the writer talks about has a lot more detail than the article. The study is linked within the article. Here is a direct link.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w13097.pdf?new_window=1

It's notable that the author is a leftist. No shock really.


ETA - study author not the article author as it were.

Brucev
01-04-2013, 19:23
Intriguing. As a Lead Inspector/Risk Assessor I find this very interesting, and I have a healthy amount of sceptisim about much of this.

But while this study and conclusions may have some problems, the attacks you are making on it are falacious; lead poisoning, lower IQ and mental defects are caused by lead. There is zero debate about that. Children's brains are still physicalltdeveloping and growing until about 6 years of age. Exposure to very low levels of lead from conception through age 6 will at a minimum reduce IQ and at worse cause a host of major mental and physical function problems.

The issue is not large chips of paint, but micro-particles found in the air, dust, soil and water. Some major sources of these micro particles come from deteriorating lead paint; lead pipes, leaded gasoline and deposits of lead dust in the soil from these and other sources.

This is a huge problem in older buildings where the lead paint is starting to deteriorate and release the lead in the form of dust.

The evidence of this problem; the source are irrefutable.

Back to the article and the claims it makes; as I said; I view it with a lot of scepticism, but it certainly warrants a closer look one way or another.

Thank you for this response.

Averageman
01-04-2013, 19:26
I think Mother Jones is about as far out in leftville as you can get.

Flying-Dutchman
01-04-2013, 19:32
Crime had been dropping due to our aging population. It is as simple as that and unlikely it is lead which has been around for a long time.

Too many variables to blame lead alone.

Kids with empty stomachs absorb more lead than those with a full stomach.

An old dirty poorly maintained house will have more lead dust and chips than an abated or newer property.

Lead poisoning is probably a result of poverty and a criminal lifestyle, not the cause of it.

elsolo
01-05-2013, 01:14
Now that we have eliminated most of the lead exposure to children,

what neurotoxin is making us have so many children born with cognitive or behavioral problems in the last decade? (autism and such)

stevelyn
01-05-2013, 02:11
Still peddling the lead boogyman.

Gallium
01-05-2013, 03:25
So why aren't all small airplane pilots and mechanics crazed killers???

AV Gas still has lead and they breathe a lot of it... :shocked:


Were they flying and turning wrenches at age 4? :tongueout:

GT4494
01-05-2013, 08:44
Were they flying and turning wrenches at age 4? :tongueout:

I've got friends that were... :cool: