Does CCW reduce crime? [Archive] - Glock Talk

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vafish
01-14-2013, 16:41
The FBI just released the list of the 25 most dangerous cities in America.



http://www.examiner.com/article/fbi-releases-top-25-most-dangerous-cities-america-list-for-2012

15 of them are in shall issue states and 10 are in strict may issue or no issue states.

8 of the 10 most violent cities are in shall issue states.


I don't think ccw has effect on crime either way, but I still want a gun to protect myself.


Posted from my stupid smart phone, please excuse any spelling mistakes.

cesaros
01-14-2013, 16:42
When I carry...I don't care about how much crime I'm stopping.

I care about how many attempts on my life I could defend against.

oldman11
01-14-2013, 17:08
Actually it does, yes. But you have to go back in each cities history to what crime was like prior to allowing CCW, and then compare; before to after. This doesn't mean there will be a definite decline each and every year. Also this is for certain types of crime, rapes, murders, residential break ins, for example.

Bruce M
01-14-2013, 19:46
Here in Florida if we look at statistics since the start of our "shall issue" permit system there have been definite decreases in violent crime. Of course there have been other changes such as enhanced penalties for using firearms in crimes that occurred during the years also. Proving which specific changes have had the most effect is far more difficult than suggesting that several changes including "shall issue"
concealed carry appear to have reduced crime.

Mr Spock
01-14-2013, 20:01
Why should that be the question? Repeat offenders going through the catch & release carousel are going to be more influential on crime stats than anything else. In FL, it seems you very nearly have to kill someone before you spend any time locked up.

The question should simply be, "When these career scumbags are released to rob or rape again, does CCW give the innocent victims a much greater chance of resisting being victimized and getting out of the situation with their lives or bodies intact, and does CCW when applied in necessary situations result in fewer repeat offenders?"

The answer, then, is unquestionably a resounding "Yes."

GIG4FUN
01-14-2013, 20:08
When I carry...I don't care about how much crime I'm stopping.

I care about how many attempts on my life I could defend against.


+1

...mine or my families...

dosei
01-14-2013, 20:24
The stats you link to prove nothing one way or the other regarding CCW and violent crime. What is needed would be ten years of the violent crime rate of these cities prior to shall-issue laws and then all the years of violent crime rates after the passage of shall-issue laws along with the number of permits being issued each year. This would be the bare minimum data needed to see what impact, if any, CCW has on violent crime.

NMPOPS
01-14-2013, 21:15
Cities are usually the liberal havens. Much of the crime in these cities is committed by inner city youths. You also have to look at the gun laws in the cities mentioned, not just the state. Just because a state is "shall issue" does it mean the city is. Not all states have preemption laws. A lot of factors to consider.

GRIMLET
01-14-2013, 21:21
New Orleans didnt even break the top 25??!!!???!!
MY ASS!!


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Pierre!
01-14-2013, 22:10
Let's keep in mind that the statistics are during a period where LEO population has been dropping as well.

Tucson sees the occasional 24 to 27 hours to fill out the 'burglary report', so it will be interesting how the next few years trend.

And I also agree that each region or societal region would have much different crime "styles"...

Yah, hope someone is keeping count!

Patrick

Mr Spock
01-14-2013, 22:15
The stats you link to prove nothing one way or the other regarding CCW and violent crime. What is needed would be ten years of the violent crime rate of these cities prior to shall-issue laws and then all the years of violent crime rates after the passage of shall-issue laws along with the number of permits being issued each year. This would be the bare minimum data needed to see what impact, if any, CCW has on violent crime.

And even then, only if the stats were viewed in relation to apprehension/incarceration/sentencing stats for criminal offenses during those time periods, as well as population (both density and sociopolitical/ethnic/cultural makeup). Only then would we even have a baseline to begin discussing whether that was enough to consider the data relevant with regard to CCW and its influence on crime.

HarleyGuy
01-15-2013, 01:25
I live about an hour's drive from both #1 (Flint, MI) and #2 (Detroit, MI).

I rarely have any business in Flint but I have to go to Detroit about twice per month from April through November, but I go in the daylight hours and also on weekdays, and I take care of my business and exit as soon as I'm through.

THe major source of problems in most of these areas is gang activity and of course, drugs. (I'm too old for both:supergrin:).

Anyone can be viewed as a "target" for a carjacking or robbery (anywhere) but I try to be aware a all times and I always have enough hardware to "discourage" such behavior should it develop.
Hopefully, this coming year will be the last that I will have to do this but we all have to do, what we have to do.

Lowjiber
01-15-2013, 06:08
When I carry...I don't care about how much crime I'm stopping.

I care about how many attempts on my life I could defend against.
Can we have an AMEN!, brothers?

IndyGunFreak
01-15-2013, 08:25
I don't think ccw has effect on crime either way, but I still want a gun to protect myself.

Yup. I get tired of hearing pro gun folks saying ccw prevents crime. Then when they see an article like you posted, they're like a deer in the headlights.

Truth be told, it doesn't matter if crime triples when a ccw law passes. It's only a related issues, if it's people with ccw's, committing the crimes.

PEC-Memphis
01-15-2013, 09:35
New Orleans didn't even break the top 25??!!!???!!
MY ASS!!


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Katrina actually helped NOLA regarding criminals. Many went to Houston and Memphis.

Aggravated assault in Memphis went up 50% the year following Katrina. Memphis was under reporting at one time, it was discovered that hundreds of reports were simply thrown away and not entered into the computerized records. I'm sure it was a clerical error....it couldn't have been to make "Blue Crush" appear to be more successful than it actually was because of a retiring police chief getting a high paid job at the Tn Dept Of safety and HLS.

Another conspicuously absent city..... Chicago politicians seldom co-operate with the FBI for the UCR, so the stats there are always suspect.

IndyGunFreak
01-15-2013, 09:50
Another conspicuously absent city..... Chicago politicians seldom co-operate with the FBI for the UCR, so the stats there are always suspect.

Yeah, I figured with the cities that don't report properly, Indpls would probably fall off the top 25. I've never really felt "unsafe" here in Indpls... there's some bad areas that I don't go unless I have to, but I still don't feel "unsafe"

redbaron007
01-15-2013, 10:05
Too many assumptions need to be made to make a conclusion about the OPs question. Without additional info, answering the OPs question is pure speculation, at best. Surprising, Chicago and NYC didn't make the top 25.

However, I'm part Boy Scout; I'm prepared, just in case. :supergrin:

:wavey:

red

RussP
01-15-2013, 10:11
Reduce, deter, postpone, prevent, all relative to the who, what, when, where, and how of each situation.

Besides, just possessing a permit/license to carry isn't going to do jack. You have to carry the firearm. How many who possess the permits and licenses actually carry?

For the concealed weapon to come into play, it must be used. Used? Yeah, as in shown to intimidate another causing them to break off the attack, as in drawn when appropriate for the same result, as in fired to stop the threat - used.

Now, don't a lot of people say that when they obtained their carry permit they changed their habits, too? They now avoid places where there might be trouble. Now they don't travel to or through certain areas at times when the chances of trouble finding them are greater.

There're more changes, but the point being, there is more to it than just a ccw does or does not affect the level of crime.

dosei
01-15-2013, 10:13
Here is some good stat analysis:
http://youtu.be/Ooa98FHuaU0

Bren
01-15-2013, 10:51
Carrying guns is too rare for it to really affect crime - it protects me when I carry a gun, but at least half the people would need one to generate a real deterrent effect.

Every study I have ever seen says CCW and gun ownership have no effect on crime either way, but it is beyond doubt that they don't increase crime, which is all it takes for my side to be right.

Gunnut 45/454
01-15-2013, 11:35
Vafish
Here's your answer! "8 of the 10 most violent cities are in shall issue states."
Now compare these cities to the Nov voting map! To whom did they vote for? Large Metro area's voted for Obamamoa! They are places where people who carry don't live for the most part. They are places where the criminal elements live and ply there crimnal trade! Most maybe in Shall issue states but where the LEO's and Democrat run cities make it very hard to carry and or PROSECUTE those that use there CCW for defense! When I first move to the town I live here in Idaho CCW was just getting impleamented- Armed robberys of banks /store was almost a weekly thing- major interstate runs through our town- after a couple of years with CCW in effect almost none occur now. As many here carry and a few robbery's were stopped by such folks! We also OC quite alot here. Now the criminal element tend to stay in the Big cities and leave us alone.:supergrin:

Citroen
01-15-2013, 12:14
vafish - I think you are asking the wrong question. You cannot prove what you prevented. I believe the UCR has a section telling the reader not to draw any conclusions from the data contained.

Since "crime" stats "may" prevent some companies from locating in certain cities, the reporting of data is often "altered" .. certain crimes are listed differently so as to avoid a "bad appearance".

I think that after much research, John Lott concluded that "more guns = less crime"; which also makes good common sense.

Ask the question, do criminals prefer unarmed victims and see what conclusion can be reached.

John
Charlotte, NC

Happypuppy
01-15-2013, 12:32
I agree it is difficult to prove. How many even report pulling it for fear of getting charged with a crime for brandishing ? I look at it like a alarm system in a car or home with a sign on the lawn or in a window. Can't really prove its a deterrent but insurance companies give a discount..




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dosei
01-15-2013, 12:51
Here is another reason why it is difficult to statisticly show that shall-issue laws and CCW/CHL reduces crime...the law abiding carrier will not go into action until a crime is underway (to do otherwise would be murder). In other words, the lawfully carried guns do not come into play until a event has already occured that will be recorded as a crime on the FBI crime stats.

As an example:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/01/15/3183760/two-robbers-shot-dead-in-hollywood.html

Two crimes were committed (Robbery) and will be recorded in the crime stats, yet these crimes were also "stopped" by people legally using a firearm is self-defense.

W4CNG
01-15-2013, 13:20
I'm going to the Polite Society Meeting in Memphis this year and Tom Givens who is hosting said in a newsletter 'Memphis is one of the most Violent Cities in the US. You do not need to go walking around here unarmed". He also runs one of the few Hot Ranges where you can carry loaded walking into the front door. That I appreciate.

janice6
01-15-2013, 13:22
When I carry...I don't care about how much crime I'm stopping.

I care about how many attempts on my life I could defend against.


This is reason.

Mr Spock
01-15-2013, 13:22
Here is another reason why it is difficult to statisticly show that shall-issue laws and CCW/CHL reduces crime...the law abiding carrier will not go into action until a crime is underway (to do otherwise would be murder). In other words, the lawfully carried guns do not come into play until a event has already occured that will be recorded as a crime on the FBI crime stats.

As an example:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/01/15/3183760/two-robbers-shot-dead-in-hollywood.html

Two crimes were committed (Robbery) and will be recorded in the crime stats, yet these crimes were also "stopped" by people legally using a firearm is self-defense.

And depending on the agenda of those doing the reporting, the two robbers may be included in the "homicides" and "gun deaths" categories too

janice6
01-15-2013, 13:36
I suspect the data is not taking into account that the larger cities have high density low income core areas, where much of the crime is centered. That crime in these areas is being caused by ghetto thugs and gangs, and very few citizens have the luxury of buying firearms and paying for permits to carry for self protection when they are on minimal incomes.

Sheer numbers of these criminals in concentrated areas where CCW is uncommon, are the source of much of the gun crime, and the armed citizens outside of these areas cause little or no problem.

Thus you have large numbers of legal firearm owners/carriers but they have no apparent impact on the crime in areas they do not frequent. This means that in spite of the number of legal guns, they are being overwhelmed statistically by the dense crime areas. It's just a data manipulation game being played by liberals with an agenda, at our expense.

Ask cops where most of the crime is located and who is primarily responsible, they know.

Mr Spock
01-15-2013, 13:40
Ask cops where most of the crime is located and who is primarily responsible, they know.


Yes, but too often, political correctness may prevent a completely honest answer to that question.

ScottieG59
01-15-2013, 14:47
The question is sort of flawed due to a fundamental issue. Threats are shaped by countermeasures such as the ability to fight back and by physical security controls, such as locked doors.

People do not give up crime. They just get more selective with their victims.

While being armed may make is a bad choice for some robbers, if they break contact and run, they will approach things differently. Being armed may help me, but it does not extend to others unless they look armed. I know of a couple cases where an unarmed person acted as if they were drawing a gun and the armed robbers ran.

With people armed and homes better secured, criminals just take a new approach. The threat does not go away, but simply adapts. One possible approach is to work in larger numbers. Another is to choose "gun free" zones. People are vulnerable in churches, schools, hospitals and sporting events.

As we make ourselves capable of self defense, we simple make the unguarded places more likely to be attacked.

Essentially, as we harden targets, the softer targets will get hit more.

I carry a gun to protect myself and those who fall within my protective bubble. I believe my survival chances increase substantially when I can fight back effectively. It may not change the total crime rate, but it changes my odds.

Bren
01-15-2013, 15:49
15 of them are in shall issue states and 10 are in strict may issue or no issue states.

8 of the 10 most violent cities are in shall issue states.



I just thought about what you wrote here, for the first time..

39 of 50 states (78%) are shall-issue (or no permit required or both).

only 11 of 50 (22%) are may issue or none.

Yet only 60% of the most dangerous cities are in the shall issue states, while 40% are in the may/no states.

So if your statistics meant anything, they would mean the shall-issue states are noticeably safer.

8 of the 10 most violet? That is in proportion to the shall issue vs may issue, so it shows nothing.