Service caliber choice acedemic for most civilians [Archive] - Glock Talk

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cole
10-08-2008, 20:32
I'm a keyboard quarterback, like most of you. I've spent more time researching and analyzing service calibers and handguns than I like to admit, and I think the links in my signature show that. It's been an evolution in many ways. Through my own experience, research and reasoning, even a little maturity, here's what I've come to believe:

1) My CCW caliber needs as a citizen are not the same as LE (e.g. I do not expect to shoot through much auto glass). Also, gun size very much matters as I must CCW not open carry, so won't/can't tote a full-size "duty" gun. Intended application matters.

2) In optimal service loads, 9mm, .357sig, .40sw and .45acp are all adequate. 10mm trumps them all; 45 Super (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=197490) even more still. Load Data (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=868400)

3) There is a performance difference in 9mm, .40sw and .45acp. They are not equal, but they are comparable in that they are all adequate and it's a scale from good-better-best. Comparing the average performance of optimal loads in each, I believe, based on optimal selections in each, 9mm to be at best 95% of .40sw and at best 90% of .45acp, and the .40sw to be at best 95% of .45acp. (Data: Load Data (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=868400), Caliber Data % (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=10747232#post10747232) & Caliber Talk (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=11129015)) Those are greatly simplified percentages, but what I've observed looking at aggregate data. The main point: To me, the difference, whatever it may be, matters less to me than it once did.

4) Selecting a CCW
..... 1) Cost (my budget has limits) = Good: .45acp; Better: .40sw; Best: 9mm (lower ammo cost = more shooting; see #3)
..... 2) Reliability = Tie. One reason why I chose Glock: Why Glock (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=892551) | A Glock is a Glock (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=10675264#post10675264) | Your Glock Experience? (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=884197)
..... 3) How well I shoot the gun = Good: .40sw; Better: .45acp; Best: 9mm
..... 4) Ease of maintenance/use = Tie. One reason why I chose Glock: Why Glock (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=892551)
..... 5) Size of gun (I prefer mid-size guns to shoot, small size for CCW) = Good: .45acp; Best: .40sw/9mm
..... 6) Capacity = Good: .45acp; Better: .40sw; Best: 9mm
..... 7) Caliber = Good: 9mm; Better: .40sw; Best: .45acp (Load Data (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=868400), Caliber Data % (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=10747232#post10747232), Caliber Talk (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=11129015))

5) The odds caliber will ever matter for me as a cautious citizen are incredibly slim. Do the math and citizen caliber selection (for almost all citizens) is for peace of mind through the idea of greater security. Example, for conceptual illustration only:
..... 1) Likelyhood as a cautious adult male citizen in rural or suburban America that I'll ever actual NEED my SD handgun in my lifetime: .0001% (note: this % is once in 20 years)
..... 2) Likelyhood I'll even have my SD handgun when/if I do actually ever need it: <25% (My time: work (no CCW) = >25%; home (w/ shotgun) = >50%; CCW = <25%)
..... 3) Likelyhood just presenting the gun will end the threat: 90+% (http://www.gunowners.org/fs0404.htm)
..... 4) Likelyhood I'll hit my target COM: <40% (police shootings <40% hits (http://johnrlott.blogspot.com/2007/12/police-hit-rates-on-shootings-as-low-as.html))
..... 5) Likelyhood I'll make a shot where a 5%-10% difference in performance will even matter: <5%
..... 6) Likelyhood my greater speed/proficiency with 9mm follow-up shots will even matter (average gun fight less than 3 shots, directly effects #4): >5%
..... 7) Likelyhood my service caliber selection will ever matter: Result of #1-#6.

Happy shooting.

G26S239
10-08-2008, 21:29
I own 9mm, 357 Sig, 40 S&W, 45 ACP and various other calibers and I like all four listed calibers a lot. Your logic is sound, the 9 will work just fine. There is one area where I disagree with your post and that is to do with police. When I was in the military I was not a civilian, after leaving the military I was a civilian. Any cop who is not in the military and not subject to the UCMJ is a civilian. They are answerable to civil, not military, authorities.

J.P.
10-08-2008, 22:17
3) Likelyhood just presenting the gun will end the threat: 95+%

I'm not sure I agree with this one at all....
If there was a definitive study to prove this, maybe.

novaDAK
10-09-2008, 00:12
If you've gone the distance and decided to carry a gun for self defense, why skimp at this point? Carry the best and most effective caliber you can shoot well.

MSgt Dotson
10-09-2008, 05:42
2) In optimal loads, 9mm, .357sig, .40sw and .45acp are all adequate. 10mm trumps them all.
.

One does not usually see '.45 ACP' referred to as merely 'adequate', that is funny! :)

cole
10-09-2008, 10:13
I'm not sure I agree with this one at all....
If there was a definitive study to prove this, maybe.

Sorry, it was 92%: http://www.gunowners.org/fs0404.htm
* Of the 2.5 million times citizens use their guns to defend themselves every year, the overwhelming majority merely brandish their gun or fire a warning shot to scare off their attackers. Less than 8% of the time, a citizen will kill or wound his/her attacker.<SUP>22</SUP>

Other reports use this number as well*. My bad on my 95% (+3%) exaggeration. Post updated.

*p.s. range is arguably 90%-98%, but we'll use the low number none-the-less.

cole
10-09-2008, 10:14
I own 9mm, 357 Sig, 40 S&W, 45 ACP and various other calibers and I like all four listed calibers a lot. Your logic is sound, the 9 will work just fine. There is one area where I disagree with your post and that is to do with police. When I was in the military I was not a civilian, after leaving the military I was a civilian. Any cop who is not in the military and not subject to the UCMJ is a civilian. They are answerable to civil, not military, authorities.

Good point. I'm thinking non-LE. You as military of course define civilian as non-military. Point noted, post updated.

vafish
10-09-2008, 11:51
Overall I agree with what you wrote. I do have a few comments.


I'm a keyboard quarterback, like most of you. I've owned 9mm, .40sw and .45acp. In semi-autos I started with a 9mm, went .40sw, then to .45acp, back to .40sw, and now have come full-circle back to 9mm. I've reloaded target .357mag, .45acp and 9mm. I've spent more time researching and analyzing service calibers and handguns than I like to admit, and I think the links in my signature show that. It's been an evolution in many ways. Through my own experience, research and reasoning, even a little maturity, here's what I've come to believe:

I've followed a wandering path over the last 20 some years, carrying everything from .22's and .25's to .44 magnums. I've settled on the 9MM and am very comfortable with it.



1) My CCW caliber needs as a citizen are not the same as LE. Intended application matters.

I think this is very true. A lot of folks get caught up in what the FBI recommends and you need 12" of penetration. Citizen CCW shootings are different than police shootings and I don't think we need the penetration and barrier performance that the police do.




2) In optimal loads, 9mm, .357sig, .40sw and .45acp are all adequate. 10mm trumps them all.



I don't know that I like the word "Trumps" the 10mm is slightly better than the others if you can shoot it well.



3) There is a performance difference in 9mm, .40sw and .45acp. They are not equal, but they are comparable in that they are all adequate and it's a scale from good-better-best. Comparing the average performance of optimal loads in each, I believe 9mm to be about 85%-90% of .40sw and 80%-85% of .45acp, and the .40sw to be about 85%-90% of .45acp. Data: Load Data (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=868400) | Caliber Data % (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=10747232#post10747232) | Caliber Talk (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=11129015). Those are greatly simplified percentages, but what I've observed looking at aggregate data. The main point: To me, the difference, whatever it may be, matters less to me than it once did.


I think they are closer to each other than your percentages, but I have no problem with the order you ranked them, I do think the .40 S+W is a little better than the 9MM and the .45 ACP is a little better than the .40 S+W. I personally think, that given proper ammo choice, the 9mm is 95%-98% of what the .40 S+W is and the .40 is 95%-98% of what the .45 ACP is and the 9MM is 92%-96% of what the .45 ACP is.



4) Selecting a CCW
..... 1) Cost. My budget is not limitless = Good: .45acp; Better: .40sw; Best: 9mm (due to ammo cost and more shooting aids #3)
..... 2) Reliability = Tie. One reason why I chose Glock: Why Glock (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=892551) | A Glock is a Glock (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=10675264#post10675264) | Your Glock Experience? (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=884197)
..... 3) How well I shoot the gun = Good: .40sw; Better: .45acp; Best: 9mm
..... 4) Ease of maintenance/use = Tie. One reason why I chose Glock: Why Glock (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=892551)
..... 5) Size of gun (I prefer mid-size guns) = Good: .45acp; Best: .40sw/9mm
..... 6) Capacity = Good: .45acp; Better: .40sw; Best: 9mm
..... 7) Caliber = Good: 9mm; Better: .40sw; Best: .45acp



Got no problem with that, pretty decent analysis.



5) The odds caliber will ever matter for me as a citizen are incredibly slim. Do the math and citizen caliber selection (for almost all citizens) is for peace of mind through the idea of greater security. Example, for conceptual illustration only:
..... 1) Likelyhood as a cautious citizen in rural or suburban America that I'll ever actual NEED my SD handgun in my lifetime: .000001%
..... 2) Likelyhood I'll even have my SD handgun when/if I do actually ever need it (note: shotgun is home gun): <25%

You really need to work on that. If your shotgun is at home then your handgun should be on you. The likely hood you have your handgun on you when you need it should be near 100%

..... 3) Likelyhood just presenting the gun will end the threat: 90+%
..... 4) Likelyhood I'll hit my target COM: <50% (I think police shootings are 40% hits)
..... 5) Likelyhood I'll make a shoot where a 10%-20% difference in performance will even matter: <5%
..... 6) Likelyhood my service caliber selection will ever matter: Result of #1-#5.

Happy shooting.


I've said it many times before and I'll say it again. If you pick a premium JHP in a service round like the 9mm, .357 Sig, .40 S+W, .45 GAP, .45 ACP, or even the 10 MM your performance, meaning your ability to place a shot and keep from getting shot, will matter much more than the difference in performance of those rounds.

cole
10-09-2008, 12:23
..... 2) Likelyhood I'll even have my SD handgun when/if I do actually ever need it (note: shotgun is home gun): <25%




You really need to work on that. If your shotgun is at home then your handgun should be on you. The likely hood you have your handgun on you when you need it should be near 100%



Good thoughts. Reality for me, and most citizens, on CCW carry:
Week = 168 hours
Work = 25%-30% (I can't CCW at work)
Home = 40%-50% (shotgun)
Balance = 20%-35% (max possible to CCW)

fredj338
10-09-2008, 13:29
I would pretty much agree. Handguns for SD/HD are really no diff. than using a rifle for dangerous game animals. You have a threat to stop. SHoot the largest caliber, w/ a good bullet, than you can hit effectively with & you'll have a better chance of stopping the fight sooner. I use them all & normally let platform dictate cartridge choice. I still like & trust in the 45acp, especially in a 1911 platform. You don;t need +p or overly complicted bulet designs. I'll also agree that CCW/HD doesn't require the bonded bullet tech. that LEO need for shooting though auto glass. I do think that you still need as much penetration as you can get. Like in hunting, I want a bullet that reaches vitals from any possible angle.

ArmoryDoc
10-26-2008, 22:34
..... 1) Likelyhood as a cautious adult male citizen in rural or suburban America that I'll ever actual NEED my SD handgun in my lifetime: .000001%

Well Cole, I would just not worry about even carrying then. You ain't ever gonna need it anyway so why bother choosing a caliber ?

There ya go.

cole
10-27-2008, 09:50
..... 1) Likelyhood as a cautious adult male citizen in rural or suburban America that I'll ever actual NEED my SD handgun in my lifetime: .000001%

Well Cole, I would just not worry about even carrying then. You ain't ever gonna need it anyway so why bother choosing a caliber ?

There ya go.

Better to have a gun and not need one, than need a gun and not have one.

ArmoryDoc
10-27-2008, 10:00
The odds caliber will ever matter for me as a citizen are incredibly slim. Do the math and citizen caliber selection (for almost all citizens) is for peace of mind through the idea of greater security.

And then, based on this rationale...Better to have a gun and not need one, than need a gun and not have one.

Better to have a bigger bullet than might do more damage than smaller, just in case. ;)

cole
10-27-2008, 13:21
The odds caliber will ever matter for me as a citizen are incredibly slim. Do the math and citizen caliber selection (for almost all citizens) is for peace of mind through the idea of greater security.

And then, based on this rationale...Better to have a gun and not need one, than need a gun and not have one.

Better to have a bigger bullet than might do more damage than smaller, just in case. ;)

My "rationale" is a bit more detailed than just caliber as outlined in my original post:


4) Selecting a CCW
..... 1) Cost. My budget is not limitless = Good: .45acp; Better: .40sw; Best: 9mm (due to ammo cost and more shooting aids #3)
..... 3) How well I shoot the gun = Good: .40sw; Better: .45acp; Best: 9mm
..... 5) Size of gun (I prefer mid-size guns) = Good: .45acp; Best: .40sw/9mm
..... 6) Capacity = Good: .45acp; Better: .40sw; Best: 9mm
..... 7) Caliber = Good: 9mm; Better: .40sw; Best: .45acp

5)
..... 5) Likelyhood I'll make a shot where a 10%-20% difference in performance will even matter: <5%
..... 6) Likelyhood my greater speed/proficiency with 9mm follow-up shots will even matter (average gun fight less than 3 shots, directly effects #4): >5%

# 7 in CCW may simply be higher on your list than mine. Different strokes for different folks. :thumbsup:

coverdog
10-27-2008, 16:05
Sorry, it was 92%: http://www.gunowners.org/fs0404.htm
* Of the 2.5 million times citizens use their guns to defend themselves every year, the overwhelming majority merely brandish their gun or fire a warning shot to scare off their attackers. Less than 8% of the time, a citizen will kill or wound his/her attacker.<SUP>22</SUP>



I'm curious where gunowners gets their figures from and how close to accurate they could be.

Hopefully it's not from some of the BS'ers that post on here about their "experiences":supergrin:

ArmoryDoc
10-27-2008, 16:19
My "rationale" is a bit more detailed than just caliber as outlined in my original post:


# 7 in CCW may simply be higher on your list than mine. Different strokes for different folks. :thumbsup:

It is. That, and training.

cole
10-27-2008, 23:30
It is. That, and training.

We very much agree on the value to training: it's my #3 because how well I shoot is the result of training. My #1 (cost) means I can train more (i.e. I can shoot twice as much 9mm, and I now only train/shoot/CCW with one gun, G19), and nothing else comes before using a reliable weapon.

cole
10-27-2008, 23:31
I'm curious where gunowners gets their figures from and how close to accurate they could be.

Hopefully it's not from some of the BS'ers that post on here about their "experiences":supergrin:

Check out Lotts' "The Bias Against Guns".

Dr. Courtney
10-28-2008, 16:35
I've seen a different perspective. Lots of hangun owners practice little with guns they've owned for a while. However, when they buy a new gun (possibly in a new caliber), they suddenly are turned on to practice again for some period of time while they are "breaking it in" and getting used to it. If changing from one service caliber to another is the best way to get some people to put a few hundred rounds downrange, then by all means, the best service caliber is one they don't have yet. :^)

Michael

cole
10-28-2008, 19:50
... Lots of hangun owners practice little with guns they've owned for a while. ...

Michael

I agree. I now own and train with only the Glock 19 in 9mm as a SD/CCW weapon. I've simply never shot another gun inherently as well from the start, with training I've only improved and I kept coming back around to that reality. How well matters more than with what service caliber IMHO.

In the past it was 3-4+ diffent guns and/or gun platforms/calibers in the rotation. However, I'm not a diehard practitioner as shooting is one of my hobbies (to both fund and enjoy) and so I only shoot 2-4x monthly. I realized my proficiency is FAR greater utilizing one platform, one gun and one caliber.

I've persoanlly gone "all in" on 9mm, not because it's best for everyone, but because it's best for me. I subscribe to the saying, "beware the (wo)man with one gun".

vafish
10-28-2008, 19:54
I've seen a different perspective. Lots of hangun owners practice little with guns they've owned for a while. However, when they buy a new gun (possibly in a new caliber), they suddenly are turned on to practice again for some period of time while they are "breaking it in" and getting used to it. If changing from one service caliber to another is the best way to get some people to put a few hundred rounds downrange, then by all means, the best service caliber is one they don't have yet. :^)

Michael


Simple solution for me.

My G17 is my carry gun and my USPSA/IPSC game gun. So I practice with what I carry.

PAGunner
10-28-2008, 20:33
Cole, good analysis, glad to see you are back on the 9mm camp. I truly believe the ability to shoot a weapon fast and accurately trumps all. Nice to have the extra capacity, but not a huge factor for me.

The only problem I found with your analysis is under guns to choose for CCW, you stated the edge is .40/9mm, but you kinda left out the GAP glocks, except for a slightly thicker slide (and a little more weight) they are the same size as Glocks standard 9mm/.40.

Oh yeah, welcome back to the 9mm camp!!!!

Doc Blase
10-28-2008, 21:23
Good post, the difference in applications and confrontations is worth considering; I sometimes carry the little .38 +p when discreet situations make it necessary and that's probably going to be OK if it hits the fan.

My G21 has enough oomph to make it worth the hassle and expense to carry and remain proficient with it. Too bad we can't just carry Mossberg 500's and FN-FAL's :-)

cole
10-28-2008, 22:11
Cole, good analysis, glad to see you are back on the 9mm camp. I truly believe the ability to shoot a weapon fast and accurately trumps all. Nice to have the extra capacity, but not a huge factor for me.

The only problem I found with your analysis is under guns to choose for CCW, you stated the edge is .40/9mm, but you kinda left out the GAP glocks, except for a slightly thicker slide (and a little more weight) they are the same size as Glocks standard 9mm/.40.

Oh yeah, welcome back to the 9mm camp!!!!

It's good to be settled again. Now, I stock up on lots of stuff for one caliber and one gun, meaning I have lots of stock! So, I either save money overall, or (more often) get even more stuff for a single platform instead of spreading it out on many. Even the switch over from .40sw/.45acp to 9mm went well because there were lots of trades and little net money spent.

I have tried and tried and tried, over and over again to warm up to the Glock 30. Even, the Glock 30sf. No joy. Too bad because I have a great appreciation for the .45acp. In the totally unrealistic "one ideal shot" scenario it would be the .45acp, but I don't live in that dream world so 9mm is the most realistic option for my needs.

The Glock 38 deserves a serious look. If the AWB come back I think the GAP may really get a foothold. Then, I MAY give it another serious look. It would be my choice before the .40sw IF the GAP ever really takes hold. I think the GAP is a more efficient improvement over the .45acp. However, until it really cathces on, I'll takes 16rds of 9mm over 9rds of .45gap.

That said, I do not foresee I'll ever shoot any caliber more than 9mm. I can reload 9mm cheaper than all the rest by at least half. I'm happy with my pair of G19s.

Gimp
02-10-2009, 11:05
When I carry concealed, I carry a 9 for better capacity; I've been told repeatedly (often by fellow GTers) that in an actual gunfight situation, odds say the first eight shots or so are misses and I prefer to have a few left. (I don't really believe I'll be missing eight times, myself...if I can't hit in the first couple, I think the odds say my attacker will!)

When I open-carry, I carry WIDE open...45 Long Colt in a full cowboy rig. I'm inclined to think the sheer bulk of the ammo clearly visible in my cartrige loops is a deterrant in itself.


http://www.normpo.com/~Eric/45b.jpg

dougader
02-10-2009, 15:07
I'm not sure I agree with this one at all....
If there was a definitive study to prove this, maybe.

Read through the footnote material in Cole's first response to this:

22. Kleck and Gertz, "Armed Resistance to Crime," at 173, 185.

Prof. Gary Kleck has been doing research on citizen use of firearms as a deterrent to crime for a long time.

In my own personal experiences, the percentage is 100%. Never had to shoot anyone, thank heaven. But drawing or preparing to draw has driven off a few with bad intentions.

royta
04-02-2009, 19:53
This is a great thread. Thank you. I'm starting to think the G19 might be better for me than the G30SF. I currently carry a Kahr P9 everyday and almost everywhere. I can't legally carry in church. However, I've been toying with the idea of IDPA since 1999 when I bought my first handgun, a Sig Sauer P229 in .40S&W. The Kahr P9 just isn't your typical game gun. I want a CCW pistol that I could also use for IDPA type matches, and I'm thinking the G19 would fit the bill rather nicely.


I've seen a different perspective. Lots of hangun owners practice little with guns they've owned for a while. However, when they buy a new gun (possibly in a new caliber), they suddenly are turned on to practice again for some period of time while they are "breaking it in" and getting used to it. If changing from one service caliber to another is the best way to get some people to put a few hundred rounds downrange, then by all means, the best service caliber is one they don't have yet. :^)

Michael

Oh yeah, that practically describes me perfectly. I can hardly wait to get a Glock and disassemble it to the very last part. Really, there's no reason why I couldn't do that with my Sig P229 or my Kahr P9, but I guess the newness of both of them have worn off. Time for a new toy. :)

ithaca_deerslayer
04-03-2009, 07:38
Cole, yes. For most of us carrying a gun is a hobby. It is also our right to be preparred to defend ourselves.

A recent article in American Rifleman said how the French trench sweepers in WWI used the .32ACP. Imagine that?

Personally, I put the self-defense bottom acceptable limit at .380, and much prefer a 9mm to that. But they were using a .32ACP ? Jump into a trench and clear any remaining enemy, and use a .32ACP to do it?

Berto
04-03-2009, 20:17
Can't really debate the rationale of your posting, Cole.
I tend to agree ,overall.
For me, caliber selection is low on the scale vs platform, ability to practice and overall suitability of the weapon to my most anticipated needs.

In my case, the bulk of my practice and carry centers around .38sp and .45acp.

Jason607
04-06-2009, 00:03
Good post to the OP. I agree 99%.

The 1% I do not agree with is the .0001% chance a person will need thier gun. Ok... lets defind "NEED". There are most incidences where you could handle it without a gun, but a gun like any other tool can be used to get the job done more effeciently, effectively, and faster. So what I am saying is I believe that there is a much higher chance that a gun may be an effective tool more often.

It's better to have a good head on your shoulders than a gun on your hip. The #1 factor in survival is brains, how much as well as how you use yours has the most to do with the outcome. Like one person said, the best way to survive a gun fight is not to get into one. Kind of like the best way to survive an car accident is not to get into one. I'd rather get in the Geo Metro with a safe driver than a Volvo with an idiot behind the wheel.

Eagle22
04-06-2009, 05:51
Good post to the OP. I agree 99%.

The 1% I do not agree with is the .0001% chance a person will need thier gun. Ok... lets defind "NEED". There are most incidences where you could handle it without a gun, but a gun like any other tool can be used to get the job done more effeciently, effectively, and faster. So what I am saying is I believe that there is a much higher chance that a gun may be an effective tool more often.

It's better to have a good head on your shoulders than a gun on your hip. The #1 factor in survival is brains, how much as well as how you use yours has the most to do with the outcome. Like one person said, the best way to survive a gun fight is not to get into one. Kind of like the best way to survive an car accident is not to get into one. I'd rather get in the Geo Metro with a safe driver than a Volvo with an idiot behind the wheel.

Jason is quite right here. This seminar may help the OP as well.

"Improve your personal safety strategies with NRA's Refuse To Be A Victim<sup>®</sup> Program.
Experts agree that the single most important step toward ensuring your personal safety is making the decision to refuse to be a victim. That means that you must have an overall personal safety strategy in place before you need it. http://www.nrahq.org/RTBAV/"

GMB
04-06-2009, 06:28
I like the brutally honest point about percentage of time that one actually has a gun available.

For those who work somewhere they aren't allowed to carry, this becomes problematic. It essentially forces 8 of your waking hours to be spent unarmed. Though most work places are safe, I feel a significantly greater likelihood that random assailants may wander into my employer vs. my home.

Aceman
04-06-2009, 06:44
Excellent analysis. I can probably pick three or four issues that really hit most of the key points, but overall fantastic. Can you throw a .380 in that mix, just for comparative purposes. That kind of logic really makes me push smaller calibers. I'm a big 9mm fan period. But I often think .380.

shotgunred
04-06-2009, 10:44
Well thought out.

were i disagree with most people is penetration and stopping power. two holes will make them bleed out quicker. everyone wants one shot one kill with a hunting weapon yet seems to want a bullet that several shots are needed to incapacitate in home defense. which is why a 9mm is almost as good as a 45. but if you just want them to drop and forget how to even breath then you want the biggest peace of lead possible moving as fast as you can get it to go. this is were the 45 shines.

Me i take what you said into account, what i said into account and mag capacity. Ten i settled for the compromise caliber the 40 sw.
but lets be honest with ourselves for a second. if you knew for certain that you were going to be in a pistol shooting today which gun would you carry today?

Me the 50 cal. but i am relativity certain i will not be in a shootout today so i carry my best compromise caliber and gun.
G23 13 +1 rounds 180 grain jhp gold dots with 6.9gr power pistol

SIGShooter
04-06-2009, 15:11
I would just like to point out...

For those that say they're not worried about barrier penetration etc...Not the same as a cops necessaties etc...

Not too long ago there was a poster here on GT who had to fire through his own car windshield. The ammo he chose IIRC was Cor-Bon Pow 'r Ball. He was not impressed with it at all. As a matter of fact IIRC he said he would be carrying something differently.

For those not worried about barriers...What does your house have that would be considered a barrier?

Furniture, doors, TVs, computers etc.

These are all things that should be taken into consideration.

You are right, we as non-LE do not go out and patrol the streets nor do we put ourselves in harms way on purpose. Nor do we go out and actively seek the bad people.

But, we will all encounter the same obsticles as LE does even in our own homes or on the streets.

Just something to think about.

For the OP...I pretty much agree with your post. I have come full circle myself. I'm back to a 1911 in .45 ACP. I have the utmost confidence in my choice of caliber and weapon.

Keep your powder dry!

happyguy
04-06-2009, 15:31
I'm a keyboard quarterback, like most of you. I've owned 9mm, .40sw and .45acp. In semi-autos I started with a 9mm, went .40sw, then to .45acp, back to .40sw, and now have come full-circle back to 9mm. I've reloaded target .357mag, .45acp and 9mm. I've spent more time researching and analyzing service calibers and handguns than I like to admit, and I think the links in my signature show that. It's been an evolution in many ways. Through my own experience, research and reasoning, even a little maturity, here's what I've come to believe:

1) My CCW caliber needs as a citizen are not the same as LE (e.g. I do not expect to shoot through much auto glass). Also, I must CCW not open carry so won't/can't tote a full-size "duty" gun. Intended application matters.

2) In optimal loads, 9mm, .357sig, .40sw and .45acp are all adequate. 10mm trumps them all.

3) There is a performance difference in 9mm, .40sw and .45acp. They are not equal, but they are comparable in that they are all adequate and it's a scale from good-better-best. Comparing the average performance of optimal loads in each, I believe 9mm to be roughly 85-95% of .40sw and 80-90% of .45acp, and the .40sw to be 85-95% of .45acp. Data: Load Data (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=868400) | Caliber Data % (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=10747232#post10747232) | Caliber Talk (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=11129015). Those are greatly simplified percentages, but what I've observed looking at aggregate data. The main point: To me, the difference, whatever it may be, matters less to me than it once did.

4) Selecting a CCW
..... 1) Cost. My budget is not limitless = Good: .45acp; Better: .40sw; Best: 9mm (due to ammo cost and more shooting aids #3)
..... 2) Reliability = Tie. One reason why I chose Glock: Why Glock (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=892551) | A Glock is a Glock (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=10675264#post10675264) | Your Glock Experience? (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=884197)
..... 3) How well I shoot the gun = Good: .40sw; Better: .45acp; Best: 9mm
..... 4) Ease of maintenance/use = Tie. One reason why I chose Glock: Why Glock (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=892551)
..... 5) Size of gun (I prefer mid-size guns) = Good: .45acp; Best: .40sw/9mm
..... 6) Capacity = Good: .45acp; Better: .40sw; Best: 9mm
..... 7) Caliber = Good: 9mm; Better: .40sw; Best: .45acp

5) The odds caliber will ever matter for me as a cautious citizen are incredibly slim. Do the math and citizen caliber selection (for almost all citizens) is for peace of mind through the idea of greater security. Example, for conceptual illustration only:
..... 1) Likelyhood as a cautious adult male citizen in rural or suburban America that I'll ever actual NEED my SD handgun in my lifetime: .0001%
..... 2) Likelyhood I'll even have my SD handgun when/if I do actually ever need it (note: shotgun is home gun): <25%
..... 3) Likelyhood just presenting the gun will end the threat: 90+% (http://www.gunowners.org/fs0404.htm)
..... 4) Likelyhood I'll hit my target COM: <40% (police shootings <40% hits (http://johnrlott.blogspot.com/2007/12/police-hit-rates-on-shootings-as-low-as.html))
..... 5) Likelyhood I'll make a shot where a 10%-20% difference in performance will even matter: <5%
..... 6) Likelyhood my greater speed/proficiency with 9mm follow-up shots will even matter (average gun fight less than 3 shots, directly effects #4): >5%
..... 7) Likelyhood my service caliber selection will ever matter: Result of #1-#6.

Happy shooting.

I own all those calibers except the 10mm. I can carry whatever caliber I want. I carry a 9mm at work (OC) and a 9mm off-duty (CC). If I need something heavier there's always the 12 ga pump.

Regards,
Happyguy :)

Jerrylundergard
04-06-2009, 15:53
I just think people should carry the biggest gun they can handel effectively. Im kinda pissed Im carrying a G19 when I could be carrying a G23 thats the same size. I think for decent sized healthy folks like my self the recoil issue is basically a non issue when talking 9vs 40.

Im trading my 9 for the 40 this summer. I have more faith in a 180 gr over a 124gr. Im not saying anyone wants to get hit by my 124+P speer gold dots, but they would be even sorrier if it was a 180 outa 40cal. On top of that, my g 19 is boring as hell to shoot, like a pee shooter or something. Im starting to lean towards the 10mm but need to see if they have anything in a g23/g19 style package. Oh well.

"Cold Dead Hands" !
04-06-2009, 22:45
Too bad we have to compromise !
Their is no perfect bullet.
The .40 was designed to be the perfect bullet.
But, it has alot of snappy recoil.
The .45 is too big.
The 9mm isn't quite powerfull enough, for close encounters ?

shotgunred
04-06-2009, 23:09
Too bad we have to compromise !
Their is no perfect bullet.
The .40 was designed to be the perfect bullet.
But, it has a lot of snappy recoil.
The .45 is too big.
The 9mm isn't quite powerfull enough, for close encounters ?

No the 40 was designed to be a 10mm short. Almost all the power of the 10mm but with a case small enough for most peoples hands. It was designed from the beginning as the best compromise. there is a big difference between the best compromise and the perfect bullet. It does everything 2nd best. but second best at everything normally beats first best at one thing and worst at something else.

SIGShooter
04-06-2009, 23:37
I just think people should carry the biggest gun they can handel effectively. Im kinda pissed Im carrying a G19 when I could be carrying a G23 thats the same size. I think for decent sized healthy folks like my self the recoil issue is basically a non issue when talking 9vs 40.

Im trading my 9 for the 40 this summer. I have more faith in a 180 gr over a 124gr. Im not saying anyone wants to get hit by my 124+P speer gold dots, but they would be even sorrier if it was a 180 outa 40cal. On top of that, my g 19 is boring as hell to shoot, like a pee shooter or something. Im starting to lean towards the 10mm but need to see if they have anything in a g23/g19 style package. Oh well.



Recoil is subjective to the user.

Me, I hate the recoil and snap of the 40. However, I have absolutely no problem using 44 Mag whenever needed. The recoil is, IMHO, mild with the 44 mag.

Unfortunately for me, I gave up the .357 SIG and the 40 because of my disability. There are a lot of calibers that I no longer shoot because the pain it causes me.

It sucks. But I manage.

Like I said though, recoil is subjective.

UnTainted
04-07-2009, 15:29
I just think people should carry the biggest gun they can handel effectively. Im kinda pissed Im carrying a G19 when I could be carrying a G23 thats the same size. I think for decent sized healthy folks like my self the recoil issue is basically a non issue when talking 9vs 40.

Im trading my 9 for the 40 this summer. I have more faith in a 180 gr over a 124gr. Im not saying anyone wants to get hit by my 124+P speer gold dots, but they would be even sorrier if it was a 180 outa 40cal. On top of that, my g 19 is boring as hell to shoot, like a pee shooter or something. Im starting to lean towards the 10mm but need to see if they have anything in a g23/g19 style package. Oh well.


Look at the G29 with the 3rd finger grip baseplate.

Police Marksman
04-07-2009, 20:03
Cole great post!!!

The Glock 19 is a great choice for CCW! It is small enough to conceal, but large enough to fight with. Yes the 9mm is a potent handgun round!!

What I am seeing is more of the top Reality Based Handgun instructors going with the 9mm as their choice for CCW! Here are a few!

James Yeager = Glock 19
Kelly McCann = Glock 19
Andy Stanford = Glock 19
Gabe Suarez = Glock 17

Glefty
09-25-2009, 20:41
Good post to the OP. I agree 99%.

The 1% I do not agree with is the .0001% chance a person will need thier gun. Ok... lets defind "NEED". There are most incidences where you could handle it without a gun, but a gun like any other tool can be used to get the job done more effeciently, effectively, and faster. So what I am saying is I believe that there is a much higher chance that a gun may be an effective tool more often.


late into this thread, but:

I agree - OP has good analysis, and I agree with Jason that the chance that a person will "need" a gun is somewhat higher. True, the chances that I will have to wound or kill anyone is very low, and odds are good that I won't even have to draw on anyone in my lifetime. But while I'm not a LEO and honestly believe I'm not a wanna-be, mall ninja type, nor do I live or work in a really bad 'hood or go looking for trouble, I've nevertheless witnessed enough bad stuff happening and even been in enough situations where it could have gone worse in seconds that I've felt "I'm glad I had the gun with me" many times (and honestly - thought "WISH I had the gun with me" many times as well).

Of course, as long as the gun's not being fired, I agree with OP's point that caliber doesn't really matter, even if my hand's on the butt. :-)

I only point this out because I can see that statistic being used to argue "really, who needs a gun" or "gun toters are paranoid..."

Dave T
09-25-2009, 21:00
I too have given a lot of thought to this subject. The answers I came up with may differ slighter from the OP but I don't want to argue over it.

What I'm most impressed with is that he has given so much thought to this. Wish most others would do the same instead of relaying on some gun magazine or the internet.

Dave

Wickersham
09-25-2009, 22:58
I'm not sure I agree with this one at all....
If there was a definitive study to prove this, maybe.

I think this is probably more accurate than you think. Not all attackers are Michael Myers types or "so wacked out on PCP" that they will keep coming until totally incapacitated.

Would you continue to advance someone if they pulled a gun (any gun) on you?

With that said, brandishing a gun is foolish - if you present it intend to use it if you have two.

BOGE
09-26-2009, 02:46
...I think the GAP is a more efficient improvement over the .45acp. However, until it really cathces on, I'll takes 16rds of 9mm over 9rds of .45gap...


I CCW a SIG 228 or G19 during warm months & a G38 for the past few Winters. I trust 9mm 100% with +p+, however when it comes to penetrating heavy duty clothing, e.g., goose down, heavy wool, I swing toward a larger bullet.

m44u
09-26-2009, 12:19
great post cole. I did some comparisons from le atk workshop. I carry a g26. I own a 17 and love it. but for conealed carry 26 works for me. In comparing a g22, to a g17, to a g26. This is what I saw. g22 fed. 180 gr. hst through heavy clothing @ 10 feet= vel. 1003, pen. 14.25'', exp. cal. .81. Not bad. Now with the g17. Fed 147 gr hst. vel. 998, pen.14'', exp. cal. 63. not bad. now with the g26. Fed hst. 147 gr. Vel. 956, pen. 14.25'', exp. cal. 62. not bad. For the g26 through bare gel. was vel. 956, pen. 13'', exp. cal. 72. That'll work to. I 'm not big on caliber wars but after comparing these numbers your'e gonna make a big hole in something with a forty and that's fine. But with the 9mm a 62 to 72 cal. hole is still an attention getter especially if you're getting pen. I've shot other calibers and love em. But I just like the 9mm for my EDC, and my wife enjoys shooting it to. Not knocking the others. Just carry what you feel comfortable with.:cool:

.45Super-Man
09-26-2009, 12:21
In their best loadings, the 9mm is very close to the .40 and the .40 is even closer to the .45 while the 10mm outperforms them all. For home defense the .45acp or 10mm ,for carry I like the 9mm simply due to the fact that you can squeeze 15 rounds or so into a very svelt package(SIG229,Glock19, Steyr M). For HD you'd likely be facing 1 or 2 bg's at the outside but if you're out in public the chances of needing more firepower increase when you factor in all the variables. Then again, a carry pistol needs to be as un-obtrusive as possible since realistically you're carrying it ALOT more than you're actually using it.

BadAndy
09-26-2009, 12:40
Then again, a carry pistol needs to be as un-obtrusive as possible since realistically you're carrying it ALOT more than you're actually using it.That's why I've been looking at picking up a Kel-Tec PF-9.

fastbolt
09-26-2009, 14:57
Really easy (and apparently enjoyable) to over-think defensive handgun cartridges.

It's just a handgun.

How knowledgeable, skilled and experienced is the person lawfully carrying it?

How well is the firearm being lawfully carried as a defensive weapon maintained?

How secure, safe and practical is the chosen carry method?

I've carried issued weapons chambered in .357 Magnum, 9mm, .40 S&W and .45 ACP. Aside from the obvious difference between revolvers and semiauto pistols, I really couldn't care less which was issued to me at any given time. I did, however, invest a lot of training time with all of them.

It's just a handgun.

If you're curious about how many private citizens are reported to have been involved in justifiable homicides compared to LE, you can find some statistics comparing the "justifiable homicide by weapon" for both law enforcement and private citizens. Some examples (in .xls) of the charts displaying this info from just one earlier report: (general link listing http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/00cius.htm ). The reports use both .pdf and .xls charts, depending on when they were prepared.

Some patience and consideration is required when navigating among the published reports going back to 1995 at the official website.
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm

Reading the introduction to the UCR's is helpful in gaining some insight into how the reports and their statistics are intended to be considered.

Remember that statistics are based upon reported info.

There are some differences in how the same info is considered and tabulated, too, depending on the question being asked at the time.

Some of it is very interesting, and perhaps unexpected to some folks.

Scroll down to charts 14 & 15 listed on this page for info from the 2008 report:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/offenses/expanded_information/homicide.html

It can be interesting to browse among the various reports if you have the time and the curiosity ...

Meanwhile, I'm going to be meeting some of the guys for an afternoon & evening of smoking cigars at a nice club.

I'll be carrying a 5-shot .38 Spl ... and my various semiauto pistols chambered in service calibers will remain at home in the safe.

Of course, I do spend some time really working on my skills with S&W J-frames, too. ;)

CanyonMan
09-26-2009, 17:32
I would just like to point out...

For those that say they're not worried about barrier penetration etc...Not the same as a cops necessaties etc...

Not too long ago there was a poster here on GT who had to fire through his own car windshield. The ammo he chose IIRC was Cor-Bon Pow 'r Ball. He was not impressed with it at all. As a matter of fact IIRC he said he would be carrying something differently.

For those not worried about barriers...What does your house have that would be considered a barrier?

Furniture, doors, TVs, computers etc.

These are all things that should be taken into consideration.

You are right, we as non-LE do not go out and patrol the streets nor do we put ourselves in harms way on purpose. Nor do we go out and actively seek the bad people.

But, we will all encounter the same obsticles as LE does even in our own homes or on the streets.

Just something to think about.

For the OP...I pretty much agree with your post. I have come full circle myself. I'm back to a 1911 in .45 ACP. I have the utmost confidence in my choice of caliber and weapon.

Keep your powder dry!




+ 1




CanyonMan

cole
09-27-2009, 00:52
... I agree with Jason that the chance that a person will "need" a gun is somewhat higher.... I only point this out because I can see that statistic being used to argue "really, who needs a gun" or "gun toters are paranoid..."

1 day in 365 = .00274%
1 day in 10 years = .000274%
1 day in 20 years = .000137%

So, if you "need a gun" 1 day in 20 years, you'll be at ~.0001%. Definition of "need" may differ. However, I do not consider "need" being the gun as a security blanket, nor a matter of "comfort". I consider "need" at the very least rightly displaying the firearm to address a hostile encouter.

Fox
09-27-2009, 01:30
I am mostly using .38 Special from a Colt Agent revolver using #358477 over a medium Unique load, but sometimes I will carry a Colt Official Police revolver loaded with .38 Special Keith Loads (#358429 bullet, 12gr of Alliant 2400)

happyguy
09-27-2009, 04:27
1) My CCW caliber needs as a citizen are not the same as LE (e.g. I do not expect to shoot through much auto glass).

I've chosen my caliber/weapon/load and pretty much agree with your analysis with the exception of the above quote.

I expect there is a possibility that I may have to engage an assailant through assorted barriers.

If the encounter isn't simply draw, shoot, it's over, then I'm going to be moving and getting cover (hopefully). Why would I expect my assailant to do less? What objects may intervene as we are moving?

The next time you are in the local 7-11 take a look around at all the things that might affect a bullets ability to stop a fight (with varying degree's of effectiveness of course).

One of those metal display shelves may not be cover but it will sure take a lot of steam out of a bullet and greatly reduce its effectiveness.

I guess what I'm saying is that since we don't get to pick the circumstances of the fight we should at least acknowledge they may be worse than we anticipated.

Regards,
Happyguy :)

mr smithglock
11-24-2009, 09:27
this is a very interesting post

Eagle22
11-24-2009, 10:27
and I thought shot placement was more important then caliber?

beforeobamabans
11-24-2009, 11:48
Good thread. Worth bumping.

Cole, your logic is sound. I was particularly interested in your comment about "warming up to the G30". I own a G17 and G30SF. And, while shooting and operating the G17 has been flawless and accurate with quick follow-up shots, I too have been intrigued by the G30(SF). Cost isn't an issue for me, so I don't have a problem maintaining a large stash in both cals. I truly enjoy the diversity at the range--its fun to switch between two significantly different cals. I tend to carry the G30 most of the time because my preference is to CC with it in a Crossbreed SuperTuck. I will OWB or even OC with my G17 on occasion. One preference that carries over from the range is that I'm sensitized to distance of the likely shot, meaning I'd really rather have my longer barrel, lower recoil, higher capacity G17 outdoors. I really like my G30 as a nightstand gun (indoors-closer range) with the 13+1 offered by a G21 mag. But here's the reason I worked through the 'warm up' period with my G30: I'm a common sense kind of guy. I've worked through all the ballistic science of the various cals and loads but when I simply look at a 230 gr Ranger-T vs any 9mm, I know which bullet I want heading toward my BG. Sorry for the poor pic.

G23c
11-24-2009, 12:13
good post. carry what you can shoot well and carry comfortably and practice, practice, practice.

481
11-24-2009, 14:28
cole-

Interesting thread. I enjoyed the read, especially from a non-LE perpective.


One point I'd like to make though is that the equation that you have provided for the ostensible purpose of calculating the kinetic energy of projectiles in this thread (E = mc²) is not the proper formula for the task:

http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=10747232#post10747232

From that thread-

...

Math:
Momentum = Mass x Velocity
Energy = Mass x Velocity Squared (e=mc2)
Area of a Circle = Radius x Radius x 3.14 (r*r*Pi)
Radius = Diameter / 2 (d/2)

Reference the table as you like. Skill is priceless, but skill does not trump the science once the good shot is made. The data reflects comparable performance given identical shot placement.

The Energy table can be seem as a relative comparison of predicted/expected recoil as energy forward relates somewhat to energy back.

Please feel free to check the math.

...



E = mc² is the equation for the relativistic mass-energy realtionship that exists when a nuclear or thermonuclear device detonates and converts a portion of the available fissionable/fusile matter into energy and involves an entirely different process than what is involved when a handgun, shotgun or rifle projectile is the subject of such consideration.


Rather, the proper equation for the determination of the kinetic energy of a projectile fired from a firearm is determined by integrating the equation for momentum (ρ) where ρ = mv and follows as:


∫ ρ ∂v = ∫ mv ∂v = ½mv²


For use on a scientific calculator, I find

(3.24x10<SUP>-5</SUP>M)(.3048V)<SUP>2</SUP>(.73756215)

to be the easiest form to follow.

The equation yields the KE value in the ever popular FPE. (Foot Pounds of Energy)

You may also remove the coefficient (.73756215) to yield the KE results in Joules.

happyguy
11-26-2009, 07:26
and I thought shot placement was more important then caliber?

And it is by far.

Regards,
Happyguy :)

cole
11-27-2009, 12:40
and I thought shot placement was more important then caliber?

And it is by far.

Regards,
Happyguy :)

Agreed... very much so. :thumbsup:

EAGLESFANPHILA
01-18-2010, 19:06
Better to have a gun and not need one, than need a gun and not have one.

That's my answer to this thread. I believe a .22 is adequate to carry for SD. NO ONE want to get shot by any kind of bullet. If you pull a gun, no matter the caliber, you can best believe the perp is hauling arse.

conpro
01-18-2010, 21:39
I would rather have 15 rounds of 9mm than 8 rounds of 45. with a 9mm that gives me 7 more chances to save my life if needed.

jwizzl497
01-19-2010, 08:47
Cole, I appreciate the time and thought you put into that post, good work! Like you I have analyzed this as well over and over and I came to same basic generalizations so I agree with your rankings.

I still however, cannot make peace with myself as to what to carry. something more controllable with less power (9mm) OR bigger bullet with more power possibly slower followups due to increased recoil (40).

Dexters
01-19-2010, 09:25
I'm a keyboard quarterback, like most of you.

Good post and analysis. The responses disagreeing with you are interesting for what they chose to point out.

cowboy1964
01-19-2010, 10:16
5) The odds caliber will ever matter for me as a cautious citizen are incredibly slim. Do the math and citizen caliber selection (for almost all citizens) is for peace of mind through the idea of greater security. Example, for conceptual illustration only:
..... 1) Likelyhood as a cautious adult male citizen in rural or suburban America that I'll ever actual NEED my SD handgun in my lifetime: .0001% (note: this % is once in 20 years)
..... 2) Likelyhood I'll even have my SD handgun when/if I do actually ever need it: <25% (My time: work (no CCW) = >25%; home (w/ shotgun) = >50%; CCW = <25%)


I don't really see what caliber has to do with whether or not you'll ever actually USE the weapon. A better point would be: If I ever DO use the weapon then I want the most effective caliber possible.