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Old 05-17-2012, 23:05   #95
Paul7
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: East of Eden
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glotin View Post
The past few hundred years. The late 20's and early 30's compared to where we are now and the systemic structures in place to prevent that from happening.



Based on current valuations, I'd suggest real estate and the stock market. Natural gas and associated businesses are very attractive right now.

If there is no contract, there is no counter party risk. There are plenty of other risks and costs associated with PMs though.

Clearly the past 10 years have heavily influenced your opinions. It's interesting to me that you can give so much weight to the last 10 years while totally discounting the previous 200 or so.

I'm not sure if you were around, but the 1970's were very similar to the 2000's. The charts look almost identical. From 1972-1979 the CAGR of Large Cap stocks was 5.1%. Commodities (gold) returned an impressive 22.1%. Surely people were boasting about how much they made in gold and, having been scared out of the stock market, continued to buy more. Unfortunately they would have missed the incredible bull markets of the 80's and 90's, while watching gold prices fall back to where they were before the 70's bubble.

Here is the take of some old man from Omaha:
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/...holder-letter/
Gold has beaten the old man from Omaha 9 of the last 10 years. Are you smarter than him? He's anti-gold (unlike his father) because he's so in the tank for Obama. People getting into PMs would be an indication the economy isn't right.

I have yet to have it explained to me how we pay off $15 trillion ($25 trillion in 10 years) in debt other than default or continued currency debasement.
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