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Old 10-11-2012, 12:51   #15
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In order:

Originally Posted by IvanVic View Post
1) What would you say if the report that is due to be released just days before the election shows that the unemployment rate has gone up to 7.9 or 8%? Will you still claim conspiracy?
But it hasn't has it?
2) Were you questioning the unemployment numbers under Obama when they were above 9%? If it's all a conspiracy, why were you not complaining then?

3) Were you questioning the numbers during his entire administration, minus the last week, when they were above 8% when he promised that the stimulus would prevent that from happening?
These are really the same question. I never said it was "all" a conspiracy, but it certainly is odd that right when it serves Obama's purpose, weird outliers and statistically significant errors start creeping into the BLS numbers, isn't it? Particularly when the inevitable corrections will come later and buried in the back half of a word-wall report.

The logical error you're committing is thinking that just because something didn't happen before means it isn't happening now.

Lastly, I've been questioning the unemployment rate calculations since I graduated from college, for reasons given below.
All of those scenarios I have listed above are bad for Obama. Even the current 7.8% number is still dismal. If you are consistent in your position of the numbers being bogus, and are not just complaining whenever they don't go your way (despite the fact that every American should be happy about a falling unemployment rate), why were you not bringing this up in the past?
Actually, high reported unemployment in the first two years serves Obama's narrative just the steward of an inherited mess that he must take increasingly severe actions to clean up. Saying that's "bad" for him doesn't entirely ring true, not from a political standpoint. He got elected exactly because of a bad jobs climate.

On the larger point, the unemployment situation in this country is not getting better. The unemployment rate only lists a percentage of people who cannot find work desipte their actively seeking it. When people drop out of the labor force (aka the labor participation rate) they no longer are counted in the unemployment rate. And the labor participation rate is decreasing. So no, contextually this "falling unemployment rate" is not cause for happiness.


I was going to put this into a second post, but I might as well keep it all together. Apologies for the length.

Here's why I'm questioning the unemployment numbers, and sorry for the background but it's important. There are two surveys done every month. The first is one done of businesses, and the survey is done of 410,000 businesses. The second is the household survey done by phone to 60,000 homes. Now the thing is, the household survey has lots of ups and downs, but this latest unemployment number is questionable because the big spike is even bigger than usual. But it's that household survey that is used for the actual unemployment rate. The business survey is used to calculate net job creation/month.

And when you look at the household survey, it's saying 873,000 jobs were created last month. Almost a million jobs. In one month. And that's a lot.

However, to put this number into context, let's look at the last time we got a million jobs created in a month. It was 1983. We were coming off the Carter Recession and Good Time Were Here. We were getting flush. So flush that we even put up with Wham!. So flush that our GDP growth rate was 9.3% In that economy, it was so hot that you could play hardball with your boss vis a vis raises and promotions. You could leave your job on a whim and know you'd have a new one in a month or two when you got tired of the Sally Jesse Raphael show.

That's contrasted with 1.4ish% today. Does today feel like 1983 to you?

That isn't to say we haven't had similar jumps with lower growth rates. Other times GDP growth has been at the 5-5.5% level and job creation jumps were close to 1983 levels. But there's never been a job jump with such an anemic growth rate like we have today.

So here, I kind of reject the premise that to believe this number is faulty is to necessarily believe in some grand conspiracy. You don't have to cotton to the thought that someone is deliberately cooking the books to think this looks very odd. OTOH, as I said to you in the other thread, this is an administration that is illegally telling contractors to ignore the WARN act and promises taxpayer money will be there to satisfy any law suits.

As simply and plainly as I can put it...there is no way this economy created 873,000 jobs last month. There is no independent data confirming it (hey, did payroll tax collection jump by a similar margin?) and the payroll survey directly refutes it. So you can believe it's true (in which case you're wrong), you can think it's wrong but there was an error somewhere (in which case it seems awfully convenient), or you can think someone took a more active hand in massaging the data (in which case you're probably a cynic.).

Pick one.
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Last edited by Goaltender66; 10-11-2012 at 13:17..
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