Originally Posted by RussP
Well, you might say that the fear of prosecution and lengthy hard time incarceration caused it, but, yeah, I think that might be wrong.
Would it be that traditional core family values are coming back. We can hope, but probably not.
Maybe it IS because more people are drawing their weapons when threatened resulting in no crime committed, or the attacker wounded or DRT. I mean, that's the way it is in some movies, right? There are movies that celebrate the use of firearms by average citizens to defeat crime, aren't there?
Hard to say which is correlation and which is causation.
If there was a breakdown by state/year as to how the stats are going down, is there a knee in the state/year where shall issue is approved? Has the crime rate dropped by a similar rate in the few states where CCW is rare, NY, DC, IL?
I would think it'd take a few years to show any effect, until the #s of permit holders increased over time.
There's an increasing number of articles in the local papers where robbers and permit holders run into each other, but Detroit is probably not representative of the country as a whole. And they probably make the papers because its out of the ordinary, there's a LOT of robberies that don't make the papers out here.
Its even possible the "war on drugs" has actually helped, by keeping potential muggers in prison on drug charges.
I don't think the thought of running into a permit holder deters criminals any more than running into cops. They aren't good at risk analysis. And if they really thought running into permit holders was a problem, I think they'd change tactics and actually shoot rather than threatening to shoot at the outset of the robbery. Most of the robber/CCW encounters have surprise on the side of the CCWer, because they do NOT expect to run into a permit holder, allowing the CCWer to prevail.
Don't get me wrong, people absolutely ought to have the right to CCW so that the few who do happen to run into robbers have a fighting chance to control their own destiny.
I'm just not convinced that shall issue is behind the drop in crime rates.