[vikingsoftpaw]

Originally Posted by Dennis in MA

Yeahbut, they tell me that when bad economic news comes out, gold ALWAYS goes up

Only if said bad news involves the dilution or devaluation of a national currency. Think Quantitative Easing III IV V etc.

[Dennis in MA]

Originally Posted by Glocksanity

Looking at the performance of gold vs. Berkshire since the start of 2000 shows that the value of gold has increased considerably more than the value of Berkshire Hathaway. In fact, with a gain of 466% since the start of 2000, gold's gain has been nearly four times the return of BKR.A (466% vs 120%).

No wonder the old man hates gold.

So now "tanking" means not a loss or even a real-dollar loss, but underperforming gold?

Where do you teach economics and finance again?

I'm done with this thread. CF and Atlas always bring up decent points. This changing shill argument is sophomoric.

[devildog2067]

Originally Posted by Atlas

So you assume that any replacement for the dollar as the world's reserve would necessarily be a currently existing, sovereign currency?

No.

But it's not going to be a basket of currencies, it's not going to be an SDR, and it's not going to be gold.

I can imagine a few things that are not existing sovereign currencies--maybe something like an energy credit (literal energy, like a gigajoule dollar). I'm not an economist and I don't have the imagination to come up with something truly revolutionary (if I did, that's what I'd be doing for a living right now!).

[Dragline]

Downward slide continues today.
Damn, I'm taking a beating too on the Palladium I bought recently.

[Geko45]

Originally Posted by devildog2067

maybe something like an energy credit (literal energy, like a gigajoule dollar).

I don't think modern economics has really adopted the idea of currency as a representation of "units of work" and I think there is much to be learned from understanding that relationship. I'm about to spend a lot of my own "units of work" on learning more about economics and this is one area I hope to explore. It's no "Higgs hunt" but I think it can contribute.

[robertoh]

When Obama's inflation kicks in about this summer from all the trillions the Goverment is printing you'll see Gold and Silver and many other commities jump in price.
I was a young married man when President Carter helped to almost sink America.And lot of things that happened then are happening now also. Some gold and silver in your closet won't hurt a thing.

[M2 Carbine]

Some gold and silver in your closet won't hurt a thing.

Along with a couple years supply of food and ammo. If nothing else it's better than money in the bank.


Silver is at $28.39 right now.
http://www.providentmetals.com/bulli...s-slv/ase.html

Those American Silver Eagles are really pretty.

[Atlas]

I hope, I hope, I hope, gold drops at least another 40 - 50% in the near future!!!

[Dragline]

Originally Posted by Atlas

I hope, I hope, I hope, gold drops at least another 40 - 50% in the near future!!!

Is that because you want to buy a bunch of it?

[cowboy1964]

I think the U.S. dollar may have a pretty good next 12-24 months as the Euro collapses. But long term it's doomed.

Gold under $1400 and silver under $25 is going to be really, really tempting. It may not even go that low though.

[cowboy1964]

Originally Posted by Flying-Dutchman

To the gold bugs – if Romney wins dump gold. Romney likes to fire people. Expect fiscal restraint.

Sure. You apparently have no idea the depth of the problems nor the resistance to real change that he will meet (IF he even tries in the first place).

http://usdebtclock.org/

Didn't it seem like just a few months ago the debt passed $14 trillion? We're now closing in on $16 trillion.

[Atlas]

Originally Posted by cowboy1964

I think the U.S. dollar may have a pretty good next 12-24 months as the Euro collapses. But long term it's doomed.

If so then I may get my wish.

[Dennis in MA]

Romney didn't fire nearly enough people here AND raised ever fee in the flipping state by at least double. Oh, but he didn't raise taxes.

[Little Joe]

Romney is definitely not the answer, but I'd rather try a new idiot over the one we've got.

[mhill]

Careful rough times here.

https://www.igolder.com/gold-charts/

[AK_Stick]

Originally Posted by Glocksanity

That is just the paper price.

Very few are selling actual physical gold and silver.

The market manipulation continues in the pm markets with naked shorting. Nothing new here. Just a good time to stack some more. Get it while you can.

I don't know about the "very few are selling actual gold and silver" I see more than I could ever buy on the market

[cowboy1964]

Well, looks like this latest buying opportunity is over. Silver up 4% so far today.

[bobby_w]

Originally Posted by cowboy1964

Well, looks like this latest buying opportunity is over. Silver up 4% so far today.

Not arguing, but it is still a good buying opportunity. Always buy on the dips and this is still a dip.

[certifiedfunds]

For the gold haters and the people who are so sure they've called "the bubble":

Can you explain to us all why the gold bull market started in 2001, long before the collapse of 08?

[Paul7]

Originally Posted by Glotin

The past few hundred years. The late 20's and early 30's compared to where we are now and the systemic structures in place to prevent that from happening.



Based on current valuations, I'd suggest real estate and the stock market. Natural gas and associated businesses are very attractive right now.

If there is no contract, there is no counter party risk. There are plenty of other risks and costs associated with PMs though.

Clearly the past 10 years have heavily influenced your opinions. It's interesting to me that you can give so much weight to the last 10 years while totally discounting the previous 200 or so.

I'm not sure if you were around, but the 1970's were very similar to the 2000's. The charts look almost identical. From 1972-1979 the CAGR of Large Cap stocks was 5.1%. Commodities (gold) returned an impressive 22.1%. Surely people were boasting about how much they made in gold and, having been scared out of the stock market, continued to buy more. Unfortunately they would have missed the incredible bull markets of the 80's and 90's, while watching gold prices fall back to where they were before the 70's bubble.

Here is the take of some old man from Omaha:
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/...holder-letter/

Gold has beaten the old man from Omaha 9 of the last 10 years. Are you smarter than him? He's anti-gold (unlike his father) because he's so in the tank for Obama. People getting into PMs would be an indication the economy isn't right.

I have yet to have it explained to me how we pay off $15 trillion ($25 trillion in 10 years) in debt other than default or continued currency debasement.

[Paul7]

Originally Posted by Bilbo Bagins

The last 10 years WERE great. I bought three gold eagles in 2002 and 2003 when it was under $320 an ounce. Sold two of them in 2008 for a hair over $1000 when gold spiked at $ 1084 and started going down, then the 2008 crash happend and gold spiked again and I so sold the last ounce of about $1700.

That is how I profited with gold. Pure luck buying low and selling high. However, I would have made money buying Apple Stocks around the same time, because 10 years ago Apple sucked and the stock were cheap and now look at them.

What if you had bought Kodak instead?

The problem people are having is everyone is screaming "Buy Gold" and the ones who are making money with it are the ones selling it. How do you expect to turn a profit when you are buying ANYTHING high and selling low. Those who bought gold at +$1700 are finding that out the hard way right now.

When the hype dies, eventually the price has to come down to normal market levels. That is with Housing, stocks, oil, and even gold.

What you don't understand is it isn't hype, it is a worldwide rejection of fiat money. Central banks today are still buying gold like crazy. You must have great faith Obama is going to fix everything.

The recent PM drop is because the dollar is temporarily rising from people fleeing the Euro.

[Paul7]

Originally Posted by Flying-Dutchman

To the gold bugs – if Romney wins dump gold. Romney likes to fire people. Expect fiscal restraint.

Even if true, the US is only a small part of world gold demand. I will vote for Romney and think he will do less damage than Obama, but I don't expect real structural change, even Reagan couldn't do that. Any real reform proposals will be met with riots in the street like Greece, by people who vote for a living.

[Paul7]

Originally Posted by devildog2067

Hey, I can read SeekingAlpha too! Link



You might want to consider citing a source the next time you decide to borrow someone else's words.

And that said, let's look at the numbers. It's true that gold has outperformed BKR.A since 2000:




but what about since 1990?



As you can see, BKR.A has outperformed gold over the last 22 years, if not the last 12. I couldn't find any charts going back to 1980 and I don't have time to make one, but I suspect it's even more stark.

You keep choosing "since 2000" as your time horizon, for no reason other than that it justifies your position. Yes, gold has done better than equities over the last 12 years. No, that is not a reason to think that it will continue to do so forever.

Nobody is saying gold will do better forever. In the '80s and '90s, stocks were the place to be. Since 2000, gold is, and IMHO that won't change for the next 5+ years.

Gold fell in 1980 because Volcker put a lid on the money supply and interest rates went up to 15%+. What would those rates to to our servicing our $15 trillion debt?

[voyager4520]

I've wanted to sell my high school class ring for scrap gold, I think I'll do it soon before the price drops any more. It's down like $100 in one week.

[certifiedfunds]

Originally Posted by Paul7

I have yet to have it explained to me how we pay off $15 trillion ($25 trillion in 10 years) in debt other than default or continued currency debasement.

First, we don't have to pay it off. It is easily serviced. Safe harbor - that could change.

Secondly, paying it off is very simple and can be done in one generation with cuts and growth.

The problem is, no one is willing to cut and the cards are being stacked against the kind of robust growth needed due to taxes and spending.