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Old 05-22-2012, 12:59   #141
Glocksanity
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glotin View Post
I see no reason for people to value gold. Saying "it's always been that way" isn't good enough for me.
Value is a subjective matter. However, when I see Central Banks around the world clamoring for gold and delivery of it, that is good enough for me. They do set monetary policy after all.

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Originally Posted by Glotin View Post
If you like gold, I think a good way to play it is GDX or specific miners like Barrick. The dichotomy between GLD and GDX demonstrates the nature of the bubble, and GDX is a good way to play it if you must have exposure to gold.
Actually, GDX and GLD are perhaps the worst way to get exposure to gold. Physical gold has no counter party risk and is no one's liability. You can't say that about paper gold (GLD) or mining companies. MF Global? How did that work out? If you don't hold it, you don't own it.


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Originally Posted by Glotin View Post
1. Yes, you are. If the dollar is worthless, it is the end of the world as we know it. Gold is a hedge against crisis and uncertainty and nothing else. You could call GLD the fear index.
Gold is also money. That is why it is on the books with Central Banks. It is a reserve currency that has been used for thousands of years for international trade settlements. The last 40 or so years are the exception, not the rule. And guess what, we are heading back to the rule. And when we do, gold will have to be priced considerably higher to absorb all the fiat that has been printed over the last 40 years. That is why $50,000 gold is not unreasonable at all.
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Old 05-22-2012, 17:40   #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glotin View Post
...
So, because people in Zimbabwe spend their time digging for gold, I should value it?
..

I see no reason for people to value gold. Saying "it's always been that way" isn't good enough for me.
You don't need to value gold at all.
I feel compelled to point out though that some very large, extremely rich corporations have massive investments in digging for gold also...
They send people to the ends of the earth and dig two miles into the ground using hundreds of millions of dollars in machinery to do just that. Must be a reason, huh?


A former GT member (now deceased) made this observation on the perceived value of gold:
(paraphrasing here)

"Gold is valuable because young women have always, since the beginning of human history been willing to do amazing things for little trinkets of gold. For this reason alone men will always go to extreme risk to explore for gold, and be willing to fight and die for it."

If anyone has a rational argument against that, I would like to hear it.

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...
1. Yes, you are. If the dollar is worthless, it is the end of the world as we know it. Gold is a hedge against crisis and uncertainty and nothing else. You could call GLD the fear index.
No, I am not. I make no such assumptions.
I said only that I was posting the bit about gold panning by the poor in Zimbabwe only to make a point about the frequent posts proclaiming that in extreme economic conditions, "gold will be worthless, everyone will be bartering bullets for toilet-paper and food"

That same silly assertion has been made many times in discussion here at GT, usually by people who clearly had no knowledge at all about economic history.


Forget Zimbabwe, as I said it is a recent but extreme example.
To you I will ask directly: When and where in all of human history has gold not been highly prized and valued?
Why would you assume that would change today?
You seem to be making certain assumptions about the modern historical counter-relationship between gold and the dollar vis-a-vis that gold will only have a higher price in times of economic panic.
Good luck with that, I wish I could see the future so clearly.


You assert that gold has no use other than as "a hedge against crisis"?
That would be grossly incorrect, and if you believe that then perhaps you should do a little research.


You do realize that you are using and dependent upon countless millions of little nuggets of almost pure gold at this very moment, right?
Without gold there would not be, could not be an internet.
But you knew that, right?
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Old 05-22-2012, 17:42   #143
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Nothing lasts forever. Not even reserve currency status:

The Furball Forum

So, it's not a matter of if the US Dollar will be abandoned, just when. Some of us think sooner than later. Evidence? Have you seen any of the bi-lateral trade agreements between Russia, China, Brazil, Iran, India? They all avoid using US dollars. And with the US kicking Iran out of the Swift system, other countries will start their own.

The writing is on the wall. Hee hee hee. Gonna be fun!!
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Old 05-23-2012, 10:33   #144
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Originally Posted by Glocksanity View Post
...when I see Central Banks around the world clamoring for gold and delivery of it, that is good enough for me. ...
This^ +1,000
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Old 05-23-2012, 10:35   #145
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To anyone on the thread

I'll buy you a gallon of gas here in Florida for every 4 mercury dimes you give me.
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Old 05-24-2012, 07:45   #146
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Quote:
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You don't need to value gold at all.
I feel compelled to point out though that some very large, extremely rich corporations have massive investments in digging for gold also...
They send people to the ends of the earth and dig two miles into the ground using hundreds of millions of dollars in machinery to do just that. Must be a reason, huh?
That's true. But they do that because people are willing to pay ridiculous amounts of money for that gold. Notice they are selling it, not hoarding it.

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No, I am not. I make no such assumptions.
I said only that I was posting the bit about gold panning by the poor in Zimbabwe only to make a point about the frequent posts proclaiming that in extreme economic conditions, "gold will be worthless, everyone will be bartering bullets for toilet-paper and food"

That same silly assertion has been made many times in discussion here at GT, usually by people who clearly had no knowledge at all about economic history.
I see. That is more clear. Still, you're affirming the consequent.

People in Zimbabwe are digging for gold because there is a market for it. If the economy of the US collapses, the world economy will have collapsed. There will be no outside international market demanding gold at today's prices.

I've never said anything about bartering bullets for TP....

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Originally Posted by Atlas View Post
To you I will ask directly: When and where in all of human history has gold not been highly prized and valued?
Why would you assume that would change today?
You seem to be making certain assumptions about the modern historical counter-relationship between gold and the dollar vis-a-vis that gold will only have a higher price in times of economic panic.
Good luck with that, I wish I could see the future so clearly.
I don't have to see the future; all I have to do is look at an inflation adjusted historical chart of gold prices.

I'm not saying that gold hasn't always been valued. I'm saying that long term, equities are better at storing and growing wealth. I'm also saying that if your "investment" strategy consists of buying gold at any price, and thinking that someday it will be pegged at $50,000, you're in for a rude awakening. I'm saying that at today's prices, gold is overvalued compared to just about anything else. The risk/return is completely upside down.

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You assert that gold has no use other than as "a hedge against crisis"?
That would be grossly incorrect, and if you believe that then perhaps you should do a little research.

You do realize that you are using and dependent upon countless millions of little nuggets of almost pure gold at this very moment, right?
Without gold there would not be, could not be an internet.
But you knew that, right?
Yes, I did know that. You do realize that the industrial demand for gold comes nowhere close to absorbing the supply, right?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glocksanity View Post
Nothing lasts forever. Not even reserve currency status:

The Furball Forum

So, it's not a matter of if the US Dollar will be abandoned, just when. Some of us think sooner than later. Evidence? Have you seen any of the bi-lateral trade agreements between Russia, China, Brazil, Iran, India? They all avoid using US dollars. And with the US kicking Iran out of the Swift system, other countries will start their own.

The writing is on the wall. Hee hee hee. Gonna be fun!!
Sure. But like Devil Dog said, while the dollar will someday be replaced by something, there is no viable replacement currently available.
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Old 05-24-2012, 13:17   #147
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I'll buy you a gallon of gas here in Florida for every 4 mercury dimes you give me.
I would too. Melt value on four Mercury dimes is over $8.
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Old 05-24-2012, 17:23   #148
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That's true. But they do that because people are willing to pay ridiculous amounts of money for that gold. Notice they are selling it, not hoarding it.

..

"ridiculous amounts of money for that gold"..
By your personal valuation. Apparently a large segment of the worlds population doesn't agree.

You remind me of other GT members who've posted in past discussions more than a few times "if gold is so valuable, why is it that those selling gold accept dollars for it"?



You say that the fact that mankind has valued gold throughout history is not a valid reason to believe it has value, and then use arguments like "all time historical highs" and make comparisons to the historical performance of equities.
Hmmm.

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Originally Posted by Glotin View Post
..
I don't have to see the future; all I have to do is look at an inflation adjusted historical chart of gold prices. ...
I've said nothing at all about "investment strategies".

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...If the economy of the US collapses, the world economy will have collapsed. There will be no outside international market demanding gold at today's prices...
That is an extremely simplistic binary view..
You assume that the only possible way that gold could ever be valued greatly higher in the world market is a very sudden and complete collapse of the U.S. economy.

On what do you base that?
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Old 05-24-2012, 20:11   #149
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Atlas - just let em go. Keep stacking it. When the inevitable happens, you will own men.
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Old 05-24-2012, 21:59   #150
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"ridiculous amounts of money for that gold"..
By your personal valuation. Apparently a large segment of the worlds population doesn't agree.
Not according to the other guy who keeps claiming that only 2% of Americans are buying gold...

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You say that the fact that mankind has valued gold throughout history is not a valid reason to believe it has value, and then use arguments like "all time historical highs" and make comparisons to the historical performance of equities.
Hmmm.
Right, because there are no ancillary reasons to support gold having value. It is not productive and has little use. When have I said "all time historical high" in this thread?

Seriously, you kept saying "Gold has always been valued!!!" over and over and over. I said I'm not disputing that. I said that over time, equities outperform gold. Is your reading comprehension really that bad?

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That is an extremely simplistic binary view..
You assume that the only possible way that gold could ever be valued greatly higher in the world market is a very sudden and complete collapse of the U.S. economy.

On what do you base that?
What? That's actually close to the opposite of what I've said.

To be frank I don't think you have the reading comprehension or education to have an intelligent discussion about this. At least Paul was bringing up some good points. Even Glocksanity raises a few interesting points amid his $50,000 crazy talk.

I've offered my view for the benefit of people who may be reading this thread in an effort to steer them clear of this gold mania by offering a historical long-term perspective. I'm trying to submit information for the benefit of people who are actually trying to educate themselves, a category you don't fall into.

You're not going to change my mind and I'm not going to change yours, so there's no point discussing it when you don't even understand what I'm saying and aren't offering any information of your own... you're just challenging a misinterpreted view of what I'm saying, and randomly comparing me to "people you've heard before".
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Old 05-25-2012, 03:27   #151
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Not according to the other guy who keeps claiming that only 2% of Americans are buying gold...

There are quite a few human beings on earth other than the general population of the U.S.

..
And do you assume that only the holdings of private individuals of average means (the world average or the average in the U.S., either one) matter to the market?

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When have I said "all time historical high" in this thread?
Not your exact words, sorry if you feel I was deliberately misquoting you but...

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all I have to do is look at an inflation adjusted historical chart of gold prices.


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It is not productive and has little use.
http://geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml
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Old 05-26-2012, 12:29   #152
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Sure. But like Devil Dog said, while the dollar will someday be replaced by something, there is no viable replacement currently available.
Okay, not to belabor the point, but you are totally missing the point. Not using the US Dollar is real easy.

From the AP: "Japan and China are expected to start direct trading of their currencies as early as June as part of efforts to boost bilateral trade and investment, according to reports.

With the planned step, exchange rates between the yen and the yuan will be determined by their transactions, departing from the current "cross rate" system that involves the dollar in setting yen-yuan rates, Kyodo News said on Saturday.

The two governments are eyeing setting up markets in Tokyo and Shanghai, the Yomiuri Shimbun said."


You see, there does not need to be a new fiat reserve currency to replace the US Dollar. Countries can go bi-lateral, bypassing the US Dollar altogether. They can also us gold as well. This is going to be an economic disaster for the US...and soon.


Get gold and hold on for dear life. It is your life boat. US Dollar denominated financial assets are in a bubble that is getting ready to burst. Ha ha ha for those that stick with them. You have been warned.
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Old 05-27-2012, 08:15   #153
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I would too. Melt value on four Mercury dimes is over $8.
Zactly, and people say precious metals don't hold value.
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Old 05-29-2012, 12:54   #154
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Germany is now saying they will provide cash to the broke PIIGS for....wait for it.... it's coming....almost there......GOLD! Ha ha ha. The world is moving to a new gold standard as fiat collapses. And when gold gets repriced...it's going to be a doozy!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/german...iigs-cash-gold
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Old 05-29-2012, 15:26   #155
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Silver and gold down today. Buy! Buy! Buy!

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Old 06-01-2012, 07:45   #156
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Gold back to $1600 already today on the bad economic data.

Seriously people, it ain't going back to $700 ever again. And gas isn't going back to $1.80.
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