[blk69stang]

I love numbers, because math doesn't lie.

Every time I read an article by some tinfoil-hatter about all the .40 cal hollowpoint ammo that DHS is buying and how this is proof the .gov is plotting to wage war on the American people, I am able to prove MATHEMATICALLY that the conspiracy theorist is a loon.

These guys have no idea the level of waste that the Federal government is capable of. Weapons qualification accounts for all of this ammo. "But why premium hollowpoint ammo for quals? Why not just qual with cheap ball ammo?" Easy: because if they give out cheap ball ammo, there are plenty of officers who aren't "gun people" and will end up shooting the HP ammo at qual and carrying the ball ammo on duy, for whatever reason.

So here's the math:

There are 57,000 sworn DHS LE officers (USBP, CBP OFO, CBP OAM, Fed Protective Service, ICE, and Secret Service) plus 42000 active duty Coast Guard, for a total CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE of 99,000 people that have to qual with a pistol (and DHS uses .40 S&W almost exclusively).

Now, consider that each firearm carrying officer must qualify four times a year, and that at each qual the officer is usually issued 250 rounds. That's 1,000 rounds of ammo PER OFFICER PER YEAR. DHS-wide, that comes out to 99 million rounds of ammo per year for the Department as a whole.

So, we then divide 1.5 billion (that's 15 followed by eight zeroes) divided by 99 million (99 followed by six zeroes) and the result is how many years that the ammo purchase would last at this estimated consumption rate. That comes out to 15.5 years. Sure, it's a big purchase, but buying in volume nets the Department big savings. Considering that the financial future of the Federal Government is anything but certain right now, I'd say that a 15 year supply of ammo is very reasonable considering the looming budget cuts in the near future.

I would think that the headline would be much less sensational if it said "DHS Buys 15 years worth of ammo".

Now, if they were buying TRILLIONS of rounds of ammo, I'd start to get worried.

[LSUAdman]

Originally Posted by Beware Owner

If there was a civil war, wouldn't there already be mass hysteria?

Yeah, but it wouldnt be my mass hysteria. It'd be someone else's induced mass hysteria.

[Beware Owner]

Still, I'd like to know what people who dismiss the idea of a civil war hitting us (don't know of a country that doesn't have one from time to time) would do if what they never fathomed came true.

[wjv]

Originally Posted by blk69stang

I would think that the headline would be much less sensational if it said "DHS Buys 15 years worth of ammo".

So they are locking themselves into using the .40 caliber for the next 15 years?

[RF7126]

Originally Posted by blk69stang

I love numbers, because math doesn't lie.

Every time I read an article by some tinfoil-hatter about all the .40 cal hollowpoint ammo that DHS is buying and how this is proof the .gov is plotting to wage war on the American people, I am able to prove MATHEMATICALLY that the conspiracy theorist is a loon.

These guys have no idea the level of waste that the Federal government is capable of. Weapons qualification accounts for all of this ammo. "But why premium hollowpoint ammo for quals? Why not just qual with cheap ball ammo?" Easy: because if they give out cheap ball ammo, there are plenty of officers who aren't "gun people" and will end up shooting the HP ammo at qual and carrying the ball ammo on duy, for whatever reason.

So here's the math:

There are 57,000 sworn DHS LE officers (USBP, CBP OFO, CBP OAM, Fed Protective Service, ICE, and Secret Service) plus 42000 active duty Coast Guard, for a total CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE of 99,000 people that have to qual with a pistol (and DHS uses .40 S&W almost exclusively).

Now, consider that each firearm carrying officer must qualify four times a year, and that at each qual the officer is usually issued 250 rounds. That's 1,000 rounds of ammo PER OFFICER PER YEAR. DHS-wide, that comes out to 99 million rounds of ammo per year for the Department as a whole.

So, we then divide 1.5 billion (that's 15 followed by eight zeroes) divided by 99 million (99 followed by six zeroes) and the result is how many years that the ammo purchase would last at this estimated consumption rate. That comes out to 15.5 years. Sure, it's a big purchase, but buying in volume nets the Department big savings. Considering that the financial future of the Federal Government is anything but certain right now, I'd say that a 15 year supply of ammo is very reasonable considering the looming budget cuts in the near future.

I would think that the headline would be much less sensational if it said "DHS Buys 15 years worth of ammo".

Now, if they were buying TRILLIONS of rounds of ammo, I'd start to get worried.

Thank you! I was just about to post that, although you said it better. Much ado about nothing.

[pugman]

Originally Posted by Beware Owner

Not to be funny, but, what would you all do if these theories materialized?

Originally Posted by Beware Owner

Still, I'd like to know what people who dismiss the idea of a civil war hitting us (don't know of a country that doesn't have one from time to time) would do if what they never fathomed came true.

1st, I think the author has his terms wrong. If the government is preparing this way its a revolution not a civil war (at least to me).

2nd, I can't imagine many scenarios where this would happen - its possible but not probable. Politicans and the Fed are pretty happy where things are right now (regardless of what you read or what they say). Look at every scenario they plan for what is generally one of the top 1-2 priorities: Get a functional government installed. They continue to get voted into office, and regardless of who wins, we generally lose. They sit on top of the food chain - don't upset the cart just make damn sure you can stay there.

Lets imagine they did institute camps of some sort; this would probably accompany martial law. The question is what could cause this to happen? It certainly would accompany a PR blitz of proportions we havn't seen since WWII.

In the end to me at least its gas on a fire. While there are 47% of the country who feels just fine getting government handouts in one from or another there are 53% who are sick and tired of pulling the other 47% - assume 1 in 10 of those have reached their breaking point that's 17 million Americans the Fed doesnt' need to deal with right now in any capacity other than continuing to rape them weekly, biweekly, bimonthly or monthly depending on how you are paid.

[Blast]

[TangoFoxtrot]

Originally Posted by Newcop761

The author is nuts.

That said the haves and the have-nots will eventually fight it out.

Outdoor Hub mobile, the outdoor information engine

Agreed

[bdcochran]

Early 1969. The US Army company commander tells our company that there is a rumor that there might be a coup. We are going to undergo a Presidential transition and our unit may be called upon to respond.

He asks "any questions"?

I respond: "Sir, what side are we on?"

Captain - just glares and walks away.

So be it with undocumented, sensationalist "stories", "analysis" attributed to undisclosed/anonymous/unauthorized spokesmen or one of 10,000 retired US Army or retired Marine Corp. Lt. Colonels with an axe to grind.

Ok, OP, now you know with 100% accuracy that there will be a Civil War. So, what side are you on? What are you going to do that would be enlightening to members of this survival forum?

[Bilbo Bagins]

Originally Posted by wjv

So they are locking themselves into using the .40 caliber for the next 15 years?

Why not the US military is still using Korea and Vietnam era bomb, the only difference is they are retro-fitted with laser guided or GPS guided systems now

[quake]

Originally Posted by bdcochran

...Ok, OP, now you know with 100% accuracy that there will be a Civil War. So, what side are you on? What are you going to do that would be enlightening to members of this survival forum?

My primary suggestion would be along the lines of "don't be in the middle of the herd when it stampedes".

[B.Reid]

Originally Posted by bdcochran

Early 1969. The US Army company commander tells our company that there is a rumor that there might be a coup. We are going to undergo a Presidential transition and our unit may be called upon to respond.

He asks "any questions"?

I respond: "Sir, what side are we on?"

Captain - just glares and walks away.

So be it with undocumented, sensationalist "stories", "analysis" attributed to undisclosed/anonymous/unauthorized spokesmen or one of 10,000 retired US Army or retired Marine Corp. Lt. Colonels with an axe to grind.

Ok, OP, now you know with 100% accuracy that there will be a Civil War. So, what side are you on? What are you going to do that would be enlightening to members of this survival forum?

I did not give an opinion, Just put it out there for you to consider.

Who's side do you think your company commander would have been on?