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Old 11-26-2012, 17:53   #251
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Originally Posted by .264 magnum View Post
Does it not seem to you, forgetting all models and esoteric analysis, that a universe with ~1 septillion stars ergo 1.6 septillion planets (the number of planets may be much higher) is quite likely to harbor life in more than one place? We absolutely know that life can occur.

Assuming there are 1 septillion planets, which is a low estimate, if the chances are one in a trillion that any planet is/will/can harbor(ing) life that means at least one trillion planets do/did/will harbor life. To me that is fairly convincing.
There are about 10^14 atoms in a single cell. "One in a trillion" chances for life isnt even close.

Again, your math is one sideded.

listen, Life might exists on every 10th planet. I dont know....but many peoples understanding of the math, at least in this thread is WAAAAY off. People only seem to be impressed with the math of the cosmos and keep overlooking the math of life.
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Old 11-26-2012, 18:54   #252
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Got tired of the pissing contest and skipped several pages. Albert Einstein weighed in with the thought that the universe is so big that it's a tremendous waste of space if Earth is the only source of life. I'll bow to his opinion.


No liberals were harmed in producing this text.
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Old 11-26-2012, 19:03   #253
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Got tired of the pissing contest and skipped several pages. Albert Einstein weighed in with the thought that the universe is so big that it's a tremendous waste of space if Earth is the only source of life. I'll bow to his opinion.


No liberals were harmed in producing this text.
It would be a "waste of space"....but his quote was not an opinion on *if* life existed.
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Old 11-26-2012, 19:18   #254
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There are about 10^14 atoms in a single cell. "One in a trillion" chances for life isnt even close.

Again, your math is one sideded.

listen, Life might exists on every 10th planet. I dont know....but many peoples understanding of the math, at least in this thread is WAAAAY off. People only seem to be impressed with the math of the cosmos and keep overlooking the math of life.
Your posts are always fabulous, especially vis a vis these hyper-broad topics. That said how do you know that one in a trillion is off? In our solar system the ratio is one in eight plus the dwarf planets. Who is to say that ratio is unusual?


Help me understand why you believe one in a trillion or whatnot is unlikely given the math of life.
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Old 11-26-2012, 19:29   #255
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BUT for any flip, the odds are still 50/50.
Your coin or mine?
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Old 11-26-2012, 19:39   #256
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Help me understand why you believe one in a trillion or whatnot is unlikely given the math of life.
"One in a trillion" isn't really that small of a number. The Higgs is produced in a lot less than one-in-a-trillion collisions, yet we've managed to produce a whole bunch of them.

I think, very simplistically, the point is something like this:

(Chance that life exists somewhere else) = (Chance of life developing) * (Total amount of "somewhere else" that exists)

This is basically what the Drake equation is trying to say.

We know that the "total amount of somewhere else" is a really, really big number.

We suspect, but don't know for sure, that the chance of life developing is a really, really small number.

When you take a really, really big number and multiply it by a really, really small number, the answer could be

a) big (approaching certainty)
b) small (approaching zero chance)
c) in between.

Without knowing more, we have absolutely no way of telling which of those it is. Knowing something about the "bigness" of one of the terms doesn't necessarily tell you that the answer has to be big.

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Old 11-26-2012, 19:51   #257
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"One in a trillion" isn't really that small of a number. The Higgs is produced in a lot less than one-in-a-trillion collisions, yet we've managed to produce a whole bunch of them.

I think, very simplistically, the point is something like this:

(Chance that life exists somewhere else) = (Chance of life developing) * (Total amount of "somewhere else" that exists)

This is basically what the Drake equation is trying to say.

We know that the "total amount of somewhere else" is a really, really big number.

We suspect, but don't know for sure, that the chance of life developing is a really, really small number.

When you take a really, really big number and multiply it by a really, really small number, the answer could be

a) big (approaching certainty)
b) small (approaching zero chance)
c) in between.

Without knowing more, we have absolutely no way of telling which of those it is. Knowing something about the "bigness" of one of the terms doesn't necessarily tell you that the answer has to be big.
The failed mathematician in me agrees with your analysis. We simply don't know.

The farmer in me says with a basket that big there must be more than one wormy planet.

The yield is I don't know but I strongly suspect.
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Old 11-26-2012, 19:51   #258
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Originally Posted by .264 magnum View Post
Your posts are always fabulous, especially vis a vis these hyper-broad topics. That said how do you know that one in a trillion is off? In our solar system the ratio is one in eight plus the dwarf planets. Who is to say that ratio is unusual?


Help me understand why you believe one in a trillion or whatnot is unlikely given the math of life.
Like Devildog said in his last post, it tends to produce ranges....as I have been saying all along. There are models that overlap and models that dont.

However, "one in a trillion" is probably still way off from a math standpoint. Again, it could be 1 out of 10 but the math is not predictive of that. I dont have the slightest clue what the answer is. What I do know is when people are doing the math wrong or just giving a feeling. That is my dog in this hunt. I personally believe the Universe is teaming with life but I recognize that is an opinion.
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Old 11-26-2012, 20:00   #259
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Like Devildog said in his last post, it tends to produce ranges....as I have been saying all along. There are models that overlap and models that dont.

However, "one in a trillion" is probably still way off from a math standpoint. Again, it could be 1 out of 10 but the math is not predictive of that. I dont have the slightest clue what the answer is. What I do know is when people are doing the math wrong or just giving a feeling. That is my dog in this hunt. I personally believe the Universe is teaming with life but I recognize that is an opinion.
I'm with you.

In a broad sense, hell narrow sense too, I'm not applying any sort of scientifically satisfying mathematical technique to this issue. It's a simple wonder of big numbers kind of thing for me.
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Old 11-26-2012, 20:01   #260
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and i am wondering if this math of alien life probability was initially based on carbon, air breathing life forms or something a little more exotic?
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Old 11-26-2012, 21:12   #261
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The Bible doesn't really close the door on the possibilities of other created beings in other galaxies... It doesn't mention them, but doesn't say they don't exist, either...
Incorrect... the book of Ezekiel... he actually describes seeing a UFO. Another part of the bible, can't remember the book, there is a description of a "hangar" of sorts... when the dimensions are measured... and those are compared to Ezekiel's visions... they all matchup.

Food for thought.
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Old 11-26-2012, 22:07   #262
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and i am wondering if this math of alien life probability was initially based on carbon, air breathing life forms or something a little more exotic?
Good point. That's were physics and math as we know it may just get flushed down the toilet. The physics and chemistry in a different galaxy could be different than ours. Pretty crazy huh? Of course that's just a theory, a plausible one I think.
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Old 11-26-2012, 22:22   #263
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In the book, Mandingo had an extra terrestrial.

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Old 11-26-2012, 22:53   #264
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In the book, Mandingo had an extra terrestrial.

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Old 11-26-2012, 22:55   #265
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Incorrect... the book of Ezekiel... he actually describes seeing a UFO. Another part of the bible, can't remember the book, there is a description of a "hangar" of sorts... when the dimensions are measured... and those are compared to Ezekiel's visions... they all matchup.

Food for thought.
Ezekiel could have describing a hallucination.
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Old 11-26-2012, 22:56   #266
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In the book, Mandingo had an extra terrestrial.

Do you ever have anything worthwhile to add?
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Old 11-26-2012, 22:59   #267
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Do you ever have anything worthwhile to add?
I don't like you too.
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Old 11-26-2012, 23:06   #268
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Do you ever have anything worthwhile to add?
I don't. What has 3 balls, and comes from outer space? ET, the Extra Testicle. Happy now?
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Old 11-26-2012, 23:08   #269
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Good point. That's were physics and math as we know it may just get flushed down the toilet. The physics and chemistry in a different galaxy could be different than ours. Pretty crazy huh? Of course that's just a theory, a plausible one I think.
That is the kind of thing people who dont understand physics like to philosophize about. It doesnt work that way.

We dont create these things, we just discover them and then try to understand them.

Its not like another galaxy is made out of something other than atomic particles.

We dont even know what we dont know yet. That is for sure, and yes, we will come to understand physics that is so far beyond what we know now, but that doenst change the truths that we do know now. We wont know these things because 1+1 no longer =2....we will understand these things because we understood that 1+1=2.
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Old 11-27-2012, 00:58   #270
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That is the kind of thing people who dont understand physics like to philosophize about. It doesnt work that way.

We dont create these things, we just discover them and then try to understand them.

Its not like another galaxy is made out of something other than atomic particles.

We dont even know what we dont know yet. That is for sure, and yes, we will come to understand physics that is so far beyond what we know now, but that doenst change the truths that we do know now. We wont know these things because 1+1 no longer =2....we will understand these things because we understood that 1+1=2.
I was just pointing out that the laws of physics could vary throughout the universe. Sure they are constant here but that may not be the case far far away. Some very intelligent physicists have theorized this. Some even say the fine constant structure varies depending where you are in the universe. I wouldn't say I don't understand physics because I think this is plausible. Where did you get that ya silly goose?

Rabbi, sometimes I think you type just to type............and to attempt to condescend.
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Old 11-27-2012, 01:12   #271
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I was just pointing out that the laws of physics could vary throughout the universe. Sure they are constant here but that may not be the case far far away. Some very intelligent physicists have theorized this. Some even say the fine constant structure varies depending where you are in the universe. I wouldn't say I don't understand physics because I think this is plausible. Where did you get that ya silly goose?

Rabbi, sometimes I think you type just to type............and to attempt to condescend.
If something is different because of a variable that we can define....

Condescending or not, you dont understand this issue. You just know how it makes you feel.
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Old 11-27-2012, 01:28   #272
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If something is different because of a variable that we can define....

Condescending or not, you dont understand this issue. You just know how it makes you feel.
Maybe we can't define it just yet. I know you are very grounded in your math and physics, that is clear. But you are so grounded that you don't allow the possibilities for phenomena that we don't yet understand. Remember, a lot of wonderful things were discovered by theorizing and challenging "the math & physics" Could you agree with that?
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Old 11-27-2012, 03:03   #273
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Pissing matches aside, this has started to get pretty good.

Some additional thoughts...

Extraterrestrial Life

All life on Earth is carbon-based. Considering higher life forms, and looking at insects alone, we don't even know how many species there are on this planet, but it's thought to be somewhere between six and ten million, with several thousand new species identified each year. There are at least 10,000 species of birds on the planet... When one stops to consider that extinction is the norm for every species, the diversity of what carbon and water have produced here, and will yet produce in terms of life, is absolutely mind boggling!

Carbon and water abound throughout the cosmos, as does the radiation that drives life and evolution. To me at least, the idea that the right combination of ingredients to create life happened only here, is more fantastic than the notion that life must exist in one form or another, throughout the cosmos—and that's utilizing only carbon and water!

I suppose that a more exotic biochemistry may have evolved out there, say, life based on silicon, but it wouldn't be necessary for the formation of some truly bazaar (to us) alien life!

Question: Would silicon-based life have DNA?


Numbers, A/K/A "The Math"

While it's true numbers don't lie, they can be used to spin things a bit, and reflect the bias of the person that wields them. I've seen it time and again in my sales career, where a pivotal player wants to produce a protégé, a golden child, with a fast-tracked career path, and we saw some newcomer supposedly operating at 180% of their quota... Barring a fantastically new product, or the opening of an incredible new account that just completely kicks ass, how does an 80-year old OEM have an individual exceeding his or her quota by 80%? Two ways: 1) The quota was adjusted to absurdly reduced expectations; and 2) The individual is being given an infusion of volume for stuff they didn't personally sell. Either way it smells; it doesn't reflect this person's actual value and performance, and I've seen this very thing contrived several times in my sales career.

Can something be both abundant and rare? Of course! One percent may not be thought of as very much, but most of us could live very well on one percent of, say, the McDonald's Corporation... One percent of the sun's daily energy output, if harnessed, could certainly solve all our energy needs for the foreseeable future... In looking at the probability of extraterrestrial life, and being honest with the math, we can show that life must be both incredibly rare and fantastically abundant!

Given that gravity is about the weakest natural force that we know about, look at what it can do when you have enough of it—hell, you can bend and trap light, you can warp space and time itself!


Shovels on Mars

Per devildog’s earlier assertion, “...’I say ‘build me a machine that digs holes on Mars from here’ you can't. There's no way to extend the principle of a shovel to this purpose.” Why the hell not? This seems more of an engineering challenge than a physical prohibition of the universe—rather like breaking the sound barrier was. In fact, didn’t at least one of the Viking Mars Landers have a facsimile of a shovel on board?


A Different Kind of Physics

As far as I know, we’ve discovered no alternate physics, just the underpinnings of the existing physics, viewed through the lens of deeper understanding.

I asked once that if a distant galaxy was made of antimatter, would we know it? If memory serves, devildog told me, “No.” But that we would expect to detect particles of regular matter annihilating particles of antimatter at the boundary of that universe. Does this preclude the existence of an antimatter galaxy out there? I think not; but it does reduce the possibility to improbable.

Some have suggested that if there is sufficient matter in this universe, dark and otherwise, and the cosmos we live in is indeed closed and destined to collapse in upon itself, that at the pause of the current expansion, just before the collapse begins, time will stand still... And when the collapse commences, time will flow backwards, right up until the next beginning...

Any thoughts on that last part?

--Ray
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Old 11-27-2012, 03:25   #274
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There is a certain amount of mass required for a star to become a black hole the center of which is the singularity.
Our sun cannot become a black hole, it will become a white dwarf after the red giant phase.
The minimum amount of mass for a star to become a black hole would be about 20 times the mass of our sun.

Thanks!

I understand about our sun. I guess what I meant was, that if a single star can possess the necessary mass to collapse into a singularity, how can the mass of everything else not have collapsed into a singularity?

Also, like the force that makes the sudsy water circle the drain before disappearing down the pipe, do you suppose all spiral and barred spiral galaxies circle massive black holes?

Further, if what existed the instant before the Big Bang was a singularity, was that the granddaddy of all singularities? Or do many singularities blossom into a new cosmos?

How many kinds of singularities--i.e., black holes--are there, that we know of?

These are open questions to anybody else that cares to chime in...

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Old 11-27-2012, 06:18   #275
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I guess what I meant was, that if a single star can possess the necessary mass to collapse into a singularity, how can the mass of everything else not have collapsed into a singularity?
A universe full of matter can be open (expand forever), closed (expand, stop, collapse (Big Crunch)), or flat (expand, slow down, but never quite stop).

The evidence now supports that our universe is a flat universe. Lawrence Krass' original 2009 "A Universe from Nothing" lecture has been pulled down from YouTube, but he followed it up with a book, and here is a later lecture on it (not sure why the player is not embedding right now).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=CO&h...&v=YUe0_4rdj0U

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