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Old 02-05-2013, 14:24   #21
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Originally Posted by certifiedfunds View Post
What fundamentals are dismal? Balance sheets look great. Even top line numbers are growing.
It's my sentiment that the fundamentals do not support the current prices. Stocks are due for a fall. Companies are about to be hit with fines/taxes, unemployment is higher than reported, families are going to have less to spend..... it's gotta hit reality at some point.

I'm not planning on pulling out anything from my TSP/401 anytime in the next 18+ years.

I do plan on taking advantage of the next dip. It's gambling in slow motion. I understand that. I never bet more than I can afford to lose.
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Old 02-05-2013, 14:27   #22
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The posted article states that billionaires are selling off major positions but fails to point out that they are reinvesting that money elsewhere in the stock market. Buffett has been buying Wells Fargo and IBM nonstop for a while, among others.

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Originally Posted by Bruce H View Post
This is why I have been positioning myself for just this senario. Absolutely no debt. Sufficient supplies to last a year if necessary. As in food not doomsday foolishness. When it tanks those with just enough income to cover bills will be in deep fecal matter.

Still have the farm which could have been converted to cash that the government would have wanted half or better of the return. Have a place to live and raise food. Enough cash to pay taxes.
How does having absolutely no debt help in a hyperinflation scenario?

That's cool that you have a farm. I want one of those once I get out of the military and settle some place.

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Originally Posted by jeanderson View Post
Every American that is in the stock market. I pulled all of my retirement (401K) funds out of the market last year and parked it in cash. Yeah, I lost out on the latest gains. But, if you try to time this you'll get burned. Better safe than sorry - get out now!
If we experience a 90% market correction it will destroy the economy and everyone will be SOL regardless of who is in the market. Nobody's money will be worth anything, so it wont matter who had how much where.

If you think trying to time the market will get you burned, why did you sell during the middle of a rally? (works both ways)

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Originally Posted by certifiedfunds View Post
Inflated currency generally has a positive effect on the market. Truth.

Buffett bought hugely in the 08 downturn and has significant gains. I suspect he would love to see another dramatic correction. Value investors always love corrections. The difference between now and then is that Buffett bought nothing in the years leading up to the 08 mess.

A correction is coming. No one debates that. This is always true, doesn't really say anything about our current situation.

It sure is starting to look like a bubble to me.Interested to hear your opinion on what is looking like a bubble and why.
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Old 02-05-2013, 15:01   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glotin View Post
The posted article states that billionaires are selling off major positions but fails to point out that they are reinvesting that money elsewhere in the stock market. Buffett has been buying Wells Fargo and IBM nonstop for a while, among others.



How does having absolutely no debt help in a hyperinflation scenario?

That's cool that you have a farm. I want one of those once I get out of the military and settle some place.
If one doesn't have debt one doesn't have to worry about interest payments on loans. I remember the 22% and higher in the late 70's. I paid the interest on what debt I had. I survived but never again.
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Old 02-05-2013, 15:16   #24
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I owe 90k in student loans. My rate is fixed. They can not come to me and say, " we know you owe 90k but with inflation we are readjusting it to 200k. And your payments have just quadrupled as well." Not gonna happen. My income will adjust to inflation. If not, I'll pay my debt when the government pays theirs. I'll continue to service my debt, before some get all snippy about MY debt.

A classmate of mine did an internship at a halfway house (criminal justice degree). They told a story of a convict that used to be an investment banker. He owed a huge restitution debt, according to my classmate. He swore that he would only work a minimum wage job for the rest of his life as a screw you to his debt. Yeah, like he'd have any other choice as a felon.
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Old 02-05-2013, 15:34   #25
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Originally Posted by Bruce H View Post
If one doesn't have debt one doesn't have to worry about interest payments on loans. I remember the 22% and higher in the late 70's. I paid the interest on what debt I had. I survived but never again.
That doesn't have anything to do with hyperinflation though. Hyperinflation helps debtors. Not advocating debt, but I'm not too worried about my 4% mortgage rate.
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Old 02-05-2013, 21:36   #26
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How can anyone possibly be worried about hyperinflation? Don't you recognize the fact that the fed has been madly paddling upstream against deflation?
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Old 02-05-2013, 21:57   #27
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Yes, it reminds me of real estate values at the beginning of 2009. What could go wrong?
It is starting to look a bit irrational. Even bad news doesn't alter the course. Yet balance sheets are great. It's a funny thing. Problem is we have dishonest money. Easy money causes mal investment.

Who knows?

I used to get caught up in mixing politics and money and realized my mistake. The market doesn't care what you think it should do. The government and the fed doesnt care. They will do what they will do. I guess the best thing is to find a way to profit from it all. .
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Old 02-05-2013, 23:56   #28
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How many times is this crap going to be reposted? This is old. And it's an advertisement, not news.

Geez Louise.

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Old 02-06-2013, 06:04   #29
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Originally Posted by Bruce H View Post
If one doesn't have debt one doesn't have to worry about interest payments on loans. I remember the 22% and higher in the late 70's. I paid the interest on what debt I had. I survived but never again.
The way mortgage have fallen the past 2-3 years I can't believe anyone has a mortgage above 6% much less 5%

We are at 3.9% on a 30 year.

Credit cards have already adjusted many of their rates upwards of 25% or more. About the only places I know where rates are above 20% are those payday or auto title loan stores.

For discussion sake let's say this guy is right and the market corrects itself by 90% in 3 months. Even billionaires will have more problems than where to put their cash.

I would think half or more of the pension funds out there would cave. People on stock backed-dividend paying retirement portfolios are screwed.
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Old 02-06-2013, 06:39   #30
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Originally Posted by pugman View Post
The way mortgage have fallen the past 2-3 years I can't believe anyone has a mortgage above 6% much less 5%

We are at 3.9% on a 30 year.

Credit cards have already adjusted many of their rates upwards of 25% or more. About the only places I know where rates are above 20% are those payday or auto title loan stores.

For discussion sake let's say this guy is right and the market corrects itself by 90% in 3 months. Even billionaires will have more problems than where to put their cash.

I would think half or more of the pension funds out there would cave. People on stock backed-dividend paying retirement portfolios are screwed.
This is why inflated dollars are never good for an economy. They are great for politicians but for the common everyday working person they are an albatross. When a dollar is worth a dollar one knows what something is worth and knows how many it will take to get by. Inflation screws the whole picture.
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Old 02-06-2013, 07:15   #31
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Since I am absolutely certain, from what we've seen in the past, that no matter where citizens place their cash, the government will eventually fins a *legal* path to it, I am likely to listen to a friend advises sinking considerable funds into 'hard investments'.. and if I knew what the heck he is talking about, I'd do it.

Anyhow, fat bank accounts will tempt those bureaucrats to the point they will all require froth bibs and drool cups. Until they can find a tunnel into the vault, that is.

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Old 02-06-2013, 07:40   #32
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Invest in steel. It's hard.

THAT I am doing..

(I just bought this big bridge in Brooklyn, ever where thet is.)
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Old 02-06-2013, 13:06   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by certifiedfunds View Post
If inflation takes off you're gonna be eating dog food.
If you keep your money in cash throughout a long period of inflation, it is true you will lose money. But inflation will not double the price of everything overnight. However, the stock market can drop like a rock in a day or two and you will lose your money before you know what hit you.
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Old 02-06-2013, 13:16   #34
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If you keep your money in cash throughout a long period of inflation, it is true you will lose money. But inflation will not double the price of everything overnight. However, the stock market can drop like a rock in a day or two and you will lose your money before you know what hit you.
That's the really scary part.

Is there anyone who remains unconvinced of the crookedness and crass manipulations of the stock market?

Once, before I grew up ( sometimes think I really did) I was convinced that the Stock Market was an honestly-run business endeavor... I do not cling to that illusion any more; I have witnessed too much.
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Old 02-06-2013, 13:30   #35
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No, here is the scary part. Our money is just a series of 1s and 0s and can vaporize in a nano second. And the fdic you put faith in is run by the government we have lost faith in.
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Old 02-06-2013, 14:57   #36
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Once, before I grew up ( sometimes think I really did) I was convinced that the Stock Market was an honestly-run business endeavor... I do not cling to that illusion any more; I have witnessed too much.
It's not just the crookedness. Another huge problem is all the electronic trading and systems which interact. I'll bet no one person really understands it all. Remember the "flash crash" of 2010? That was around 1000 points. I know a day trader who lost a year's earnings in 60 seconds.
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Old 02-06-2013, 15:04   #37
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Wish I could unload without taking a huge hit, I am looking into switching my 403B into a IRA or something else..soon. Last time this went around I saw it coming,,,had a new job, looked at teh market and housing real hard, opted NOT to get into a 401K....put the money into savings..., I Opted in when the market was at the BOTTOM ( dow about 6400 ) and dumped cash into it....put most into gold type stocks (mining/ processing)...I made an average of 45% return over 3 years. Dumped it again when my company got bought out. Paid off several loans, upped my credit score, then refinanced the house at 3 % ( AND the bank paid my first $2500 in closing costs) for 15 years. Cut 10 years off my payments, and payments are the same per month,, ( do the math on that !!)
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Old 02-06-2013, 21:43   #38
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Just remember, in the case of hyperinflation, all those mason jars of cash will be becoming worth less and less very quickly. Stuff. Buy Stuff.
Unless its pre-1965 90% silver in those jars.

Obama’s second term victory guarantees a financial crash.

America always does things in a big way and this crash will be the mother of all crashes.

Most of us here have never experienced really tough times. We will get that chance.
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Old 02-06-2013, 22:26   #39
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Watch Japan - they are the canary in the coal mine.

They are going all in on QE - it will pump things up for a while -

I keep seeing the image of a B-52 - engine on fire - so the pilot does a deep dive - trying to get up the speed to put the flames out - risking breaking apart or the crash into the ground.

May work - may break apart - may crash

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Old 02-07-2013, 01:52   #40
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How can anyone possibly be worried about hyperinflation? Don't you recognize the fact that the fed has been madly paddling upstream against deflation?
Not sure if serious...

What do you think the result of all this QE is going to be? Hyperinflation is a possibility.
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