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Old 02-07-2013, 02:36   #41
Happypuppy
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Look at the CPI. Now you know why it costs $3.50 to buy a gallon of gas. The other shoe dropping will be when dollars are not needed as the reserve currency for petroleum.
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Old 02-07-2013, 03:49   #42
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If inflation takes off you're gonna be eating dog food.
Not if/when.Not us mind.Life has choices,I prefer food over fluff.Most folks have plasma/HD type home appliances.



We tend ta eat well.'08.
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Old 02-07-2013, 04:07   #43
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Not sure if serious...

What do you think the result of all this QE is going to be? Hyperinflation is a possibility.
See, because this generation has never experienced deflation, they don't know what it is or what to do about it. All the fed printing would result in inflation if the slack in demand and employment ever disappears but it won't.

Remember that Bernacke's PHD is in the depression and deflation. He knows what he is doing--fighting tooth and nail, using everything including the kitchen sink to keep the deflationary spiral at bay--and he's failing. Demand will never return to early 21st C. levels because of massive personal debt (which has doubled since 2000) and the inevitable tidal wave of baby boomer retirements, proceeding at 10,000 per day. BB'ers are grossly over indebted and under capitalized for retirement with an average of $40,000 in savings. Do you think they are going to be spending at the same pace as when they were working? No way!

You can already see major deflation right in front of you. What's happened to the housing market? What's happened to employment and wages.
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Old 02-07-2013, 05:52   #44
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Originally Posted by beforeobamabans View Post
See, because this generation has never experienced deflation, they don't know what it is or what to do about it. All the fed printing would result in inflation if the slack in demand and employment ever disappears but it won't.

Remember that Bernacke's PHD is in the depression and deflation. He knows what he is doing--fighting tooth and nail, using everything including the kitchen sink to keep the deflationary spiral at bay--and he's failing. Demand will never return to early 21st C. levels because of massive personal debt (which has doubled since 2000) and the inevitable tidal wave of baby boomer retirements, proceeding at 10,000 per day. BB'ers are grossly over indebted and under capitalized for retirement with an average of $40,000 in savings. Do you think they are going to be spending at the same pace as when they were working? No way!

You can already see major deflation right in front of you. What's happened to the housing market? What's happened to employment and wages.
You make some good points. I honestly never thought of the slack in demand. You are certainly right that retirees, for the most part, will not be spending as they were in their earlier years. Taxes are going to go up for everyone. Obama can't get all he needs from just the rich - he needs to broaden his revenue base and get into the middle class, which, as you rightly point out, have shrinking wages. Taken together, with the rising number of unemployed, I agree that demand will go down.
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Old 02-07-2013, 06:32   #45
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How can anyone possibly be worried about hyperinflation? Don't you recognize the fact that the fed has been madly paddling upstream against deflation?
There was deflation due to the housing bubble but hyperinflation is coming our way.

You can actually have both; deflation in housing and wages, yet inflation of daily necessities like food and fuel.

With hyperinflation you never see it coming. If you could, everyone would immediately get rid of cash buying anything of lasting value (which causes immediate hyperinflation).

And that is what will happen. First a few months of high inflation maybe 20-50%; then at that point everyone realizes the money is no good resulting in hyperinflation.
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Old 02-07-2013, 06:40   #46
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Somebody needs to let the stock market know?
It seems to be headed in the wrong direction.

..
Nope. Let it crash and burn. It needs to. Hopefully every last one of them responsible get burned to ashes.
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Old 02-07-2013, 07:20   #47
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Nope. Let it crash and burn. It needs to. Hopefully every last one of them responsible get burned to ashes.
Ashes? That sounds ominous.

I'm thinking that regardless of what happens, those with hige debt and undisciplined spending will do better than those that have saved and invested on average.

It will be interesting to watch.
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Old 02-07-2013, 07:52   #48
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Somebody needs to let the stock market know?
It seems to be headed in the wrong direction.

..
the fed is holding it up but, hey! it's only money right?
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Old 02-07-2013, 07:56   #49
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"It's the ECONOMY, stupid!"-- Who said then and when did they say it? Never mind, this lurking disaster is not news to most here who follow such things... but the bad news is, a correction of that magnitude is absolutely certain to hurt just about every American. I doubt I'm wrong in this.
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/bil...source=taboola

"Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why"

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Its very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.
and dumping it into metals. thats why the fed is keeping the pm prices down. got to help them bankstas get a jump on the suckers.
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Old 02-07-2013, 12:14   #50
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There was deflation due to the housing bubble but hyperinflation is coming our way.

You can actually have both; deflation in housing and wages, yet inflation of daily necessities like food and fuel.

With hyperinflation you never see it coming. If you could, everyone would immediately get rid of cash buying anything of lasting value (which causes immediate hyperinflation).

And that is what will happen. First a few months of high inflation maybe 20-50%; then at that point everyone realizes the money is no good resulting in hyperinflation.
In theory, I suppose your scenario could happen but not this time. Hyperinflation requires too many dollars chasing too few goods. We've got the too many dollars part but we still have inordinate slack in factory capacity utilization even with the many plant closures we've already suffered through. You cannot have inflation without demand squeezing supply. I work for a manufacturer and I'm telling you, demand continues to erode. You factor in Obama's recessionary policies with the inevitable loss in demand from the retirement of the greatest demographic bulge in the history of our country and you have a decrease in demand (GDP) until the early to mid 2020s when the boomer echo bulge hits max consumption years. There is no way the fed can invent enough phony economic activity to keep it afloat. At some point, gravity will take over. Admittedly, there will be great moaning and gnashing of teeth.
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Old 02-07-2013, 12:24   #51
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The interesting thing about deflation is, it benefits those who do the exact opposite of inflationary defensive tactics. Because this generation has never experienced deflation, everyone will be deep in trouble before it dawns on them that this ain't inflation (witness tactics discussed above). In deflation, your dollar buys more tomorrow than it does today so cash is king. Debt is anathema because you will pay off a loan with increasing valuable dollars. This is why the indebtedness of our government and our private sector will be a stubborn problem for at least a decade, maybe two.

The only way out will be real austerity.
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Old 02-07-2013, 12:42   #52
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Beforeobamabans -

I was going to throw my 2-cents in, but... You've covered my 2-cents better than I could hope and added a nickel.
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Old 02-07-2013, 13:39   #53
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Nope. Let it crash and burn. It needs to. Hopefully every last one of them responsible get burned to ashes.
Who all do you believe is responsible? I'm willing to bet your anger is misplaced; sounds like you've bought the story fed to you by the govt and MSM.

Quote:
Originally Posted by beforeobamabans View Post
See, because this generation has never experienced deflation, they don't know what it is or what to do about it. All the fed printing would result in inflation if the slack in demand and employment ever disappears but it won't.

Remember that Bernacke's PHD is in the depression and deflation. He knows what he is doing--fighting tooth and nail, using everything including the kitchen sink to keep the deflationary spiral at bay--and he's failing. Demand will never return to early 21st C. levels because of massive personal debt (which has doubled since 2000) and the inevitable tidal wave of baby boomer retirements, proceeding at 10,000 per day. BB'ers are grossly over indebted and under capitalized for retirement with an average of $40,000 in savings. Do you think they are going to be spending at the same pace as when they were working? No way!

You can already see major deflation right in front of you. What's happened to the housing market? What's happened to employment and wages.
There are plenty of notable economists (most of them, actually) who disagree with "Bernacke" [sic]. He is no longer an independent actor; he has different restraints and incentives than an independent economist.

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The only way out will be real austerity.
Completely agree with you there, but don't dismiss hyperinflation as impossible.
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Old 02-07-2013, 16:54   #54
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"Bernacke" [sic]
[sic].
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Old 02-07-2013, 17:16   #55
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Old 02-08-2013, 19:51   #56
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The stock market is pretty much just automated computers buying and selling to each other at light speed and making fractions of a penny on each deal. There's very little human interaction in the market anymore. Google HFT if you want to read more.

I think 90% is a big overstatement but a correction is due. The catch is on one hand the Fed is pumping $85B a month into the economy through the banks and the gov't and their printing press never runs out of ink. Zimbabwe had a stock market around 40,000 points by the time their money was worthless. On the other hand, we are getting up around the point where the 2008 crash started. Hard assets that retain value is a better investment than the stock market but also not as liquid.
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