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Old 02-13-2013, 18:41   #1
Old School
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Deep Sigh

I think the $200 to $500 price increase on completed ARs is here to stay.

Yes, the panic prices are over. But I don't see mfg. companies investing in new machinery and labor when the product might be banned on a week's notice. They're not going to get caught with excess inventory.
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Old 02-13-2013, 18:47   #2
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Originally Posted by Old School View Post
I think the $200 to $500 price increase on completed ARs is here to stay.

Yes, the panic prices are over. But I don't see mfg. companies investing in new machinery and labor when the product might be banned on a week's notice. They're not going to get caught with excess inventory.


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Yes, the panic prices are over


Epic thread fail.
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Old 02-13-2013, 18:50   #3
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Ya, I doubt it. Demand is high right now, but it will slow down, and prices will follow when it does.
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Old 02-13-2013, 20:05   #4
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2008/2009 = 2012/2013 IMO. Production is as max right now, demand is stabilizing (as proven by secondary market price drops) and that simply equals eventually a trickle, a stream and then a flood of ARs on the market.
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Old 02-13-2013, 20:24   #5
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flood of ARs on the market.
I sure hope so!
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Old 02-13-2013, 20:37   #6
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Wish you were right, but the panic prices are not going away any time soon. Its going to be a long time before the gun industry gets out of the mess that it is in.
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Old 02-13-2013, 20:39   #7
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Originally Posted by Ruggles View Post
2008/2009 = 2012/2013 IMO. Production is as max right now, demand is stabilizing (as proven by secondary market price drops) and that simply equals eventually a trickle, a stream and then a flood of ARs on the market.
Yeah give it a few months and there will be a flood of LNIB ARs on the market.
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Old 02-13-2013, 20:48   #8
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I sure hope so!
I remember the last flood after the 2009 mess. ARs were everywhere and cheap.
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Old 02-13-2013, 20:51   #9
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Good, i've decided that guns are the best investment you could have right now. So I can't wait until I can start diversifying my calibers
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Old 02-13-2013, 21:10   #10
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The panic isnt totally over, but it is on a downward fall. If you watch what things are actually selling for, not armslist prices or gunbroker, but regular message boards, the prices of ar's of dropped dramatically. Everything is still overpriced, but its slowly coming down. Its at least to a point where you cant just find one in a store or online and then flip it for big profits a week later.
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Old 02-13-2013, 21:21   #11
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The panic isnt totally over, but it is on a downward fall. If you watch what things are actually selling for, not armslist prices or gunbroker, but regular message boards, the prices of ar's of dropped dramatically. Everything is still overpriced, but its slowly coming down. Its at least to a point where you cant just find one in a store or online and then flip it for big profits a week later.
Good point on the flippers, that will help matters greatly for those just wanting to buy a AR to keep.
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Old 02-14-2013, 04:38   #12
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saw a bushmaster C15 (i know i know) on the shelf at Academy for $725.
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Old 02-14-2013, 06:29   #13
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I don't know that this is an epic thread fail, but I'm not sure I know what that means anyway.

I'm hoping for a glut of LNIB ARs and a swing to supply & demand balance, but I don't see it coming for at least 4 years. And by then, prices will not bounce back 4 years because of inflation and acceptance of a "new norm". Much as a stretched rubber band loses elasticity over time, so do prices.

Case in point is the oil and gasoline market. Even when supply and demand dictate lower prices, there will still be speculative pressure that drives price up. Much the same as the days of $2.00/gallon gas are gone, I think the days of a S&W M&P15T for $1100 are gone. Also to note, I see the days of paying $3000 for a S&W M&P15T are gone, that's why I say panic prices are over.

It's just too easy to imagine the political reaction for the next criminally insane person who commits a horrific crime. Which goes back to my OP why mfgs aren't ramping up.
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Old 02-14-2013, 06:54   #14
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After the 2009 panic I was surprised that ammo prices came down, in some cases even lower than before. When I bought my 6920 for $1300 I didn't think it was overpriced since they were going for $1500-1800 at the time, then after things calmed down you could get one for 1K after shipping/ transfer/ tax
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Old 02-14-2013, 07:09   #15
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I hope that this is like 2009 and I welcome any/all of you to drag this thread back up and call me a short sighted, effing idiot.

zhix, local (Vass, NC) gun shop had at least one NIB 6920s the other day for $1500+tax so your $1300 is still a solid purchase.
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Old 02-14-2013, 07:41   #16
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Prices will not come down much.....things will get worst and the dollar will be worth less. Gas prices and food prices will not be dropping either. The Sheep will need the Fed even more and that's what they want to happen. Here's a post I found:

"My grandmother told me the same thing 3 years ago and she came from nazi germany, she seen it all and said this is how it started in Germany".

We are heading for a Socialist takeover!

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Old 02-14-2013, 10:51   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old School View Post
I don't know that this is an epic thread fail, but I'm not sure I know what that means anyway.

I'm hoping for a glut of LNIB ARs and a swing to supply & demand balance, but I don't see it coming for at least 4 years. And by then, prices will not bounce back 4 years because of inflation and acceptance of a "new norm". Much as a stretched rubber band loses elasticity over time, so do prices.

Case in point is the oil and gasoline market. Even when supply and demand dictate lower prices, there will still be speculative pressure that drives price up. Much the same as the days of $2.00/gallon gas are gone, I think the days of a S&W M&P15T for $1100 are gone. Also to note, I see the days of paying $3000 for a S&W M&P15T are gone, that's why I say panic prices are over.

It's just too easy to imagine the political reaction for the next criminally insane person who commits a horrific crime. Which goes back to my OP why mfgs aren't ramping up.
Oil and gas don't have the competition that gun manufactures do and almost everyone buys gas and oil.It might take a while but if there is no ban then prices will come down.
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Old 02-14-2013, 12:19   #18
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I think the next 4 years or so is going to be like a roller coaster for prices. I do not think Barry and his warehouse full of buffoons are even close to finished pushing their commie gun grabber agenda.

I also have to agree the value of the dollar will continue to decline and probably do so at an increased rate vs past performance. If the financial **** does not hit the fan in the next 5 years I will be surprised.

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Old 02-14-2013, 12:29   #19
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What $200-$500 price increase? Unless you're talking about flippers/gougers, I'm not sure what you mean.

I bought a Smith & Wesson M&P10 .308 late last night for $975 shipped from Bud's. When they're in stock, the prices on the rest of the M&P line are exactly what they were before the panic. Same with the Colt 6920's and Sig M400's at Walmart. Manufactures aren't raising prices. If your LGS/online vendor is, I'd suggest you find a new place to shop.
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Old 02-14-2013, 21:05   #20
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I just got a Sig M400 for $900.
Come and join me in the Stan and you can get a sweet deal too.
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Old 02-14-2013, 21:45   #21
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What $200-$500 price increase? Unless you're talking about flippers/gougers, I'm not sure what you mean.

I bought a Smith & Wesson M&P10 .308 late last night for $975 shipped from Bud's. When they're in stock, the prices on the rest of the M&P line are exactly what they were before the panic. Same with the Colt 6920's and Sig M400's at Walmart. Manufactures aren't raising prices. If your LGS/online vendor is, I'd suggest you find a new place to shop.
I'm going to have to see if they have a inventory alert. I'll take the wife beating for that gun at that price. Nice pick-up.


Assuming nothing passes other than background I don't see thing getting back to before crazy prices for a minimum of six months. Their may be a bit of a second hand market once credit card bills start rolling in but dealer wise it's going to be a while.

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Old 02-15-2013, 12:24   #22
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What $200-$500 price increase? Unless you're talking about flippers/gougers, I'm not sure what you mean.

I bought a Smith & Wesson M&P10 .308 late last night for $975 shipped from Bud's. When they're in stock, the prices on the rest of the M&P line are exactly what they were before the panic. Same with the Colt 6920's and Sig M400's at Walmart. Manufactures aren't raising prices. If your LGS/online vendor is, I'd suggest you find a new place to shop.
C'mon guy, really?! Bud's is gouging with the rest of them.



Stag Rifles selling for ~$500 above normal
http://www.budsgunshop.com/catalog/p...s_id/411545225

DPMS Oracle selling for ~$400 above normal (they just sold out)
http://www.budsgunshop.com/catalog/p...ATO+30%2B1+Cap

M&P 15-22 Selling for ~$200 above normal
http://www.budsgunshop.com/catalog/p...lapsible+Stock

M&P15T selling for ~$900 above normal
http://www.budsgunshop.com/catalog/p...ACTICAL+811064

Those are just three I found right off the bat. Granted, if you did purchase the M&P 10 at that price, you got a great deal, especially considering the M&P15T is selling for twice that price...

EDIT: So, bud's was selling the M&P-10 at $700 below MSRP?
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Old 02-15-2013, 13:31   #23
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Point taken about Bud's. FWIW, I was referring to Bud's police supply, not the main website. Not that it should matter, though, since I'm pretty sure both of those websites are maintained by the same business.

So, while I guess I shouldn't have used Bud's as an example, the point of my post remains. If anyone is still selling at the "old" price, doesn't that mean the manufacturer's haven't increased the cost? The OP stated that he believed the price increases were permanent. I was trying to make the point that there hasn't been a cost increase - just price adjustments by dealers to maximize profit in the current market/political climate. Again, my apologies for being less than clear when citing examples.

Anyway, here's the link to the M&P10 I purchased:

http://www.budspolicesupply.com/cata...ducts_id/15142
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Old 02-15-2013, 14:08   #24
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Point taken about Bud's. FWIW, I was referring to Bud's police supply, not the main website. Not that it should matter, though, since I'm pretty sure both of those websites are maintained by the same business.

So, while I guess I shouldn't have used Bud's as an example, the point of my post remains. If anyone is still selling at the "old" price, doesn't that mean the manufacturer's haven't increased the cost? The OP stated that he believed the price increases were permanent. I was trying to make the point that there hasn't been a cost increase - just price adjustments by dealers to maximize profit in the current market/political climate. Again, my apologies for being less than clear when citing examples.

Anyway, here's the link to the M&P10 I purchased:

http://www.budspolicesupply.com/cata...ducts_id/15142
No worries. Troy is the only manufacturer, that I know of, that has raised prices. Thanks for the link!
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Old 02-15-2013, 17:06   #25
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Huh? My wallet doesn't see the difference between a price increase and a "price adjustment" that makes items more expensive. Sounds like government talk (you don't have a tax increase, it's a tax adjustment).

My OP fears that a change in price (however you want to call it) in the $200-$500 range is permanent. Time will tell.
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