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Old 04-19-2013, 18:34   #1
LongGun1
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Fast developing story on novel H7N9 influenza

http://www.sfgate.com/health/article...ts-4446898.php

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/201...-bird-flu.html



Are you prepared?
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Old 04-19-2013, 20:32   #2
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Hard to tell much from that. China might have infected their own people just to see. Based on article, it seems human to chicken contact the likely source.

And...
+ 1/4 mortality in China could be highly location dependent, elderly/kids etc...
- 1/4 Mortality would suck!

Still, this is a great example of "Have enough Food & Water" Number one way to stay safe is stay home/stay in!!!

Anything other than that - good luck (See pandemic woman from Doomsday Preppers)

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Old 04-20-2013, 01:09   #3
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Bugs scare more than nukes,they are cheaper and very effective.'08.
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Old 04-20-2013, 07:50   #4
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The Masque of the Red Death

The Masque of the Red Death by Edgar Allen Poe.

The question posed is whether "you" are prepared.

In the story, the selected withdraw to a castle to isolate themselves from the death. Outsiders are barred. There is a great party with masks. The Red Death appears at the party.

When the current or a future flu becomes a hot topic in this forum, you will read the bs about drawing oneself into a castle, killing unprepared people seeking assistance or retreating to the "safe" wilds of Maine.

Take the time. Do your research. Do the research on flu vaccines, how epidemics propagate, and sanitation.

My grandfather died in the 1917 flu epidemic.

I belong to a major hmo. The medical plan of the hmo is to deny hospital treatment of epidemic victims. So much for reliance on "I will just go to the hospital".

A study of the 1917 epidemic disclosed that the flu followed a normal pattern. It came in waves over a period of 5 years. Every part of the globe except one island was affected. So much for the concept of hiding out for a few weeks.

I recall a recent English study of the spread of a plague in a small town. The path was traced by reported deaths in households. A relative would visit from a different household and then spread the plague. Or it would go between next door neighbors. So much for the concept of rejecting "obviously sick people".

If you are fortunate to avoid the flu for several months, it is possible that an effective vaccine may be developed (of course, if you don't believe in germ theory, disregard - this includes my sister-in-law who is a nurse who works in a large hmo).

In the meantime, if you believe in germ theory, there are things that you can do personally. Wash your hands after going to the bathroom. Research where the germs are most concentrated in a household and clean those areas regularly (keyboards, faucets, door knobs, refrigerators). Get your kids on board. A non-scientific study was conducted by an elementary school teacher. She had her pupils wash their hands on arrival at school and after lunch. Absences went down 25%. Practice good hygiene now so that you minimize your exposure to germs.
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Old 04-20-2013, 20:23   #5
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Isolation and quarantine work if people actually do it. Most people won't. And I believe that frequent hand washing and cleaning will decrease the chance of spreading infections.

People will still go to school, work and will still travel even when they are sick. We haven't had to face a major epidemic in this country since the 1917 flu so will take a whole lot of people dying before most of us will realize what needs to be done.
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Old 04-20-2013, 20:35   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kirgi08 View Post
Bugs scare more than nukes,they are cheaper and very effective.'08.
In the Marines I was our company NBC training NCO. Nuke and Chem are bad. Bio scares the hell out of me.
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Old 04-20-2013, 20:51   #7
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Not really. The only preparation is that we are able to isolate ourselves pretty well. Unfortunately though, before you become aware of the threat & are able to take precautions, you may already be exposed.
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Old 04-21-2013, 13:44   #8
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I wrote a paper on the 1918 pandemic in college many years ago,. It was the professors favorite subject. He survived the Pandemic and service in Europe in WWI. He said most of the people he knew who were his age died from the flu.
The flu stopped the draft before the end of the war because so many were getting sick at boot camp. Only one military facility in the US did not have many sick, out in SanFrancisco and the CO had the water fountains steam cleaned every half hour. In Boston, those for whom there was no room in the hospital were put in beds on the Commons, and those people had a better recovery rate than those hospitalized. Fresh air and sunlight.
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Old 04-22-2013, 06:36   #9
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Worked for a Health Department a while back. We spent major time discussing/preparing response plans in case of Panavian Flu.

I concurr - no one has dealt with this since 1917. We have came a long way in some good ways (medicine, response, etc...) and not so good in others (politics, pressure to work, population...)

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Old 04-22-2013, 10:50   #10
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If it does not make the birds that carry it sick then we have to hope that it mutates itself into something less harmful or are screwed if it mutates to H to H.

Masks
Gloves
Germex
Tamiflu

and of course be ready to self quarentine between the waves.
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Old 04-22-2013, 15:21   #11
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Among other things I did before I retired, I was the emergency manager for rather large college when H1N1 came out. We met regularly with local, county and state EMs. They wanted to use my college as a staging site. They also talked about suspending mail service in the event of an outbreak, quarantine etc. It is a lot easier to do these days than back in early 20th century. A lot more people can work from home and take classes online.

H1N1 didn't just disappear, people worked hard to prevent it's spread which was by and large successful. I suspect the W.H.O. is already working on a master plan to contain it.
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Old 04-24-2013, 07:41   #12
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WHO: H7N9 virus 'the most lethal so far'

http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/24/world/...flu/index.html
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Old 04-24-2013, 08:57   #13
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All that matters to me is the ease of human to human transmission. It appears at this time that h2h transmission isn't easy. The virus could mutate and h2h transmission could become a worry but such a mutation could also reduce the virulence. The 5-7 day incubation period is troubling though because if it flips to h2h mode there's not going to be much of a chance to contain and quarantine.

I'm cautiously watching this story for now but don't see the need to overly concerned.
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Old 04-24-2013, 09:31   #14
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This one does not look so good for us...

I sure hope they get a grip on it!
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Old 04-24-2013, 09:50   #15
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Fox just reported that a Tawianese business man contracted it and had NO contact with the birds.'08.
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Old 04-24-2013, 09:57   #16
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This is the #1 thing I prep for. We are overdue for a flu pandemic. The good thing is vaccine tech and monitoring has evolved. The bad news is things can spread worldwide in one day.

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Old 04-27-2013, 10:18   #17
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http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/04/2...unan-province/


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Old 04-28-2013, 16:46   #18
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Pandemic is one of my biggest concerns.
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Old 05-10-2013, 20:56   #19
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Good News!!!

http://www.livescience.com/29515-bir...e-decline.html
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