So Silver is over $24/oz.... - Page 11

Don H · 11-30-2010, 23:21

US Mint Sells Record 4.2 Million American Eagle Silver Coins In November

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-...coins-november

G29Reload · 12-01-2010, 07:36

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Summers/nov292010.html

certifiedfunds · 12-01-2010, 07:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by G29Reload

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Summers/nov292010.html

The title is misleading. One must read all the way through the article, including the very last tiny paragraph.

Due for a correction/consolidation? Absolutely. "Collapse"? Not even close. Lots of dominoes left to tumble. Big ones.

certifiedfunds · 12-01-2010, 08:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by blown03'

US Mint Sells Record 4.2 Million American Eagle Silver Coins In November

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-...coins-november

As panic starts to set in with the general public, and they realize that gold is out of reach, consumer silver purchases (if silver is available) will go through the roof.

G29Reload · 12-01-2010, 09:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by certifiedfunds

As panic starts to set in with the general public, and they realize that gold is out of reach, consumer silver purchases (if silver is available) will go through the roof.

I beleive this is already happening, by the graph. Also the smaller denomination of a silver is more conducive to barter and trade on small items.

I'm with you on QE...I get it. Something else does concern me, mentioned toward the end of the article.

As the environment becomes more inflationary, interest rates will rise. In order to prop up the dollar and prevent a crash, the Fed could raise intereest rates. Or be forced to because other countries do. Money will chase higher rates.

If someone pulls a Volker, a la the early 80's/late 70s and see Carter era interest rates, say 18%, people may decide that pms are ripe to cash in and rather than keep them and their static value (non-interest bearing) take the proceeds and put them in income generating cash. The resulting sales would then put downward pressure on pms.

IE, if you have amassed 100k in cash, and rates are at 18%, you can create 18,000 in positive cash flow. Since me and others like me have some fixed liabilities (4.5% fixed mtg) that interest on the account alone would pay my mortgage.

In the long run, pms are still solid. I'm sure not selling any. However it is a fool who ignores the business and financial cycles and some sizeable swings are possible. The above scenarios mean that straight up forever is not likely. Of course as things come apart and the government falters with a failure, it would again be time to take money out of cash and get back into pms AGAIN.

As they said in the 80's, "Diversify and stay liquid!"

humanguerrilla · 12-01-2010, 09:21

Weren't available until the 19th, right? So 4.2mil coins sold in 12 days. Wow.

gatorbait69 · 12-01-2010, 09:47

I've read through most of this thread. Some very good points made here by people much more intelligent on this topic than me. I am pretty well prepped, but this rise in silver has me interested.

Where is the best place to buy american eagles?

thanks in advance

certifiedfunds · 12-01-2010, 09:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by G29Reload

I beleive this is already happening, by the graph. Also the smaller denomination of a silver is more conducive to barter and trade on small items.

I'm with you on QE...I get it. Something else does concern me, mentioned toward the end of the article.

As the environment becomes more inflationary, interest rates will rise. In order to prop up the dollar and prevent a crash, the Fed could raise intereest rates. Or be forced to because other countries do. Money will chase higher rates.

If someone pulls a Volker, a la the early 80's/late 70s and see Carter era interest rates, say 18%, people may decide that pms are ripe to cash in and rather than keep them and their static value (non-interest bearing) take the proceeds and put them in income generating cash. The resulting sales would then put downward pressure on pms.

IE, if you have amassed 100k in cash, and rates are at 18%, you can create 18,000 in positive cash flow. Since me and others like me have some fixed liabilities (4.5% fixed mtg) that interest on the account alone would pay my mortgage.

In the long run, pms are still solid. I'm sure not selling any. However it is a fool who ignores the business and financial cycles and some sizeable swings are possible. The above scenarios mean that straight up forever is not likely. Of course as things come apart and the government falters with a failure, it would again be time to take money out of cash and get back into pms AGAIN.

As they said in the 80's, "Diversify and stay liquid!"

Not time to delve to deeply into your comments other than to say to remember that money chases performance.

G29Reload · 12-01-2010, 10:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by certifiedfunds

Not time to delve to deeply into your comments other than to say to remember that money chases performance.

I think that was my point. If PM's start to tank because of selling pressure (taking profits) to then turn around and put cash into high interest bearing accounts to produce a high rate of return then that's the cycle just kicking in.

Of course, high interest rates will choke the economy, tank tax revenue to the government and generally f' things up. Eventually gov stability is threatened and people start to flee the dollar because things are looking Weimar republic/Argentina, and the pendulum swings again towards pm's.

In other words, stay on your toes.

certifiedfunds · 12-01-2010, 13:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by G29Reload

I think that was my point. If PM's start to tank because of selling pressure (taking profits) to then turn around and put cash into high interest bearing accounts to produce a high rate of return then that's the cycle just kicking in.

Of course, high interest rates will choke the economy, tank tax revenue to the government and generally f' things up. Eventually gov stability is threatened and people start to flee the dollar because things are looking Weimar republic/Argentina, and the pendulum swings again towards pm's.

In other words, stay on your toes.

I have a general faith in the government and the fed to **** things up. That's only bullish IMO.

1 old 0311 · 12-01-2010, 13:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by certifiedfunds

As panic starts to set in with the general public, and they realize that gold is out of reach, consumer silver purchases (if silver is available) will go through the roof.

It is going there. I haven't looked today but as of yesterday silver rounds on e-bay were selling $6 OVER SPOT. It has NEVER been that much over.

emt1581 · 12-01-2010, 15:01

Well I called the PM dealer near me who, just this summer, was selling rounds for .50 over spot. Today the woman said..."Oh we no longer deal in silver, it's just too risky right now".

So now I have to buy a few pieces here and a few pieces there to gather more.

-Emt1581

certifiedfunds · 12-01-2010, 15:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by emt1581

Well I called the PM dealer near me who, just this summer, was selling rounds for .50 over spot. Today the woman said..."Oh we no longer deal in silver, it's just too risky right now".

So now I have to buy a few pieces here and a few pieces there to gather more.

-Emt1581

You should have listened to the commercials.

emt1581 · 12-01-2010, 15:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by certifiedfunds

You should have listened to the commercials.

And besides, even if they weren't deceptive with their timing, they still have minimum quantities and shipping costs for orders.

-Emt1581

certifiedfunds · 12-01-2010, 15:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by emt1581

And besides, even if they weren't deceptive with their timing, they still have minimum quantities and shipping costs for orders.

-Emt1581

At $100 an oz, shipping cost doesn't matter

emt1581 · 12-01-2010, 15:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by certifiedfunds

At $100 an oz, shipping cost doesn't matter

At that point it doesn't. At this point it does.

-Emt1581

certifiedfunds · 12-01-2010, 15:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by emt1581

At that point it doesn't. At this point it does.

-Emt1581

I'm sorry but I don't follow

emt1581 · 12-01-2010, 15:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by certifiedfunds

I'm sorry but I don't follow

Right now, it's not at $100oz. so shipping is proportionately more than it would be once it hits $100oz.

My thoughts are...why not buy in smaller increments privately rather than pay significantly more for shipping and such as well as leave a paper trail.

-Emt1581

**kirgi08** · 12-01-2010, 15:43

Paper trails are easily avoided most times.'08.

SilverCity · 12-01-2010, 16:25

Many dealers offer free shipping if you buy a larger quantity of silver.

SC

certifiedfunds · 12-01-2010, 16:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by emt1581

Right now, it's not at $100oz. so shipping is proportionately more than it would be once it hits $100oz.

My thoughts are...why not buy in smaller increments privately rather than pay significantly more for shipping and such as well as leave a paper trail.

-Emt1581

Do you see the fallacy in your logic?

Catshooter · 12-01-2010, 16:48

CF,

You're not the one who's not following.

Emt,

He's saying, that silver is going to $100 or more, so while it may look that shipping matters right now, it won't after a while. Do you want to wait until shipping doesn't matter? Or do you want to buy at 25% of the price for later.

Cat

whogasak47 · 12-01-2010, 16:56

DEC 1... It should rise again soon. US announced today it was bailing out EU (see Drudge)

emt1581 · 12-01-2010, 17:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by SilverCity

Many dealers offer free shipping if you buy a larger quantity of silver.

SC

Larger quantities meaning what?

I can afford a roll or two at a time.

-Emt1581

1 old 0311 · 12-01-2010, 17:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by emt1581

Right now, it's not at $100oz. so shipping is proportionately more than it would be once it hits $100oz.

My thoughts are...why not buy in smaller increments privately rather than pay significantly more for shipping and such as well as leave a paper trail.

-Emt1581

Shipping 4-5 ounces with Signature Guarantee is $2.74