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Old 04-15-2011, 18:33   #526
emt1581
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bru2t...feature=relmfu

Here's another one that seems too good to be true but then again if/WHEN the SHTF and paper metals are outlawed or forced to face reality...it sort of makes sense in a mental masturbatory way...

I've seen a TON of youtube, forum, and news related stories where people are saying Silver is just going to keep going up. But I coudn't find ANYONE saying it was going to go down. Any examples you've seen of such a thing?

Thanks!

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Old 04-15-2011, 18:51   #527
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Thanks for the info.

What about the price peeling back by half or so before skyrocketing?

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Wishful thinking.

I'd say it's more likely to double than to half.
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Old 04-15-2011, 19:11   #528
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Wishful thinking.

I'd say it's more likely to double than to half.
I've spent some time tonight doing even more homework/research. Now I'm considering buying a large amount even more. I figure I'll sell if the price goes down 5 points and it'll be a somewhat painful, but easily recoverable, lesson learned. However, if it continues the upward trend as it's been we stand to make a LOT of money. Worthless money...but lots of it. And if the dollar collapses altogether/is replaced which few people, even on here are willing to acknowledge, it would leave us in a healthy position to continue buying goods and services.

So other than burning/destroying trillions in US currency, which would seem to make us unable to pay for any of the international debt we have thereby creating another problem.....

What are ways the value of the dollar could rise and/or the value of Silver could fall...in relation to the dollar?

Thanks!

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Old 04-15-2011, 19:15   #529
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Let me see if I can find it....


Here it is, this chart shows the prices of gold/silver relative to the German Mark circa 1919 to 1923.

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Old 04-15-2011, 19:17   #530
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You can't even look at PMs as an investment. It's insurance at this point. There's little point at this point (and even less so going forward) to convert PMs back into ever more worthless dollars unless you need them to buy food or pay the rent.

If I had known Silver was going to almost triple in the last two years I would have cashed out my 401k and bought every ounce I could.

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Old 04-15-2011, 19:19   #531
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You can't even look at PMs as an investment. It's insurance at this point. If I had known Silver was going to almost triple in the last two years I would have cashed out my 401k and bought every ounce I could.
I had a bud that did just that, took the hit for cashing out, man is he so happy, every time I see him he thanks us.
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Old 04-15-2011, 19:23   #532
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I appreciate the last few replies but I need some serious devil's advocates here... What could cause the value of the dollar to rise and/or silver to fall in relation to the dollar?

Thanks!

-Emt1581
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Old 04-15-2011, 19:45   #533
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I appreciate the last few replies but I need some serious devil's advocates here... What could cause the value of the dollar to rise and/or silver to fall in relation to the dollar?

Thanks!

-Emt1581
Nothing that we are doing...

Seriously, we would have to cut spending, a lot, like 2 trillion dollars, and reduce regulations to spur production of consumer products in our country. Not going to happen.
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Old 04-15-2011, 19:56   #534
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Nothing that we are doing...

Seriously, we would have to cut spending, a lot, like 2 trillion dollars, and reduce regulations to spur production of consumer products in our country. Not going to happen.
Ahh..but we could...yes?

Let's say someone who sat in the Oval Office and did what needed to be done...what would happen to the value of the dollar and the value of silver in relation to the dollar?

Personally, I feel we are waaaayyyy past that point. It would mean none of the countries we owe money to get their money. I'm guessing the consequences would include horrifically reduced trade, no real foreign relations with anyone, and possibly attempts to attack us. I know I had a thread on that a while ago. Some laughed, others mentioned the old saying about who is screwed depends on how much has been lent...

So ok... improving economic policy...what else?

Thanks!

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Old 04-15-2011, 20:01   #535
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Ahh..but we could...yes?

Let's say someone who sat in the Oval Office and did what needed to be done...what would happen to the value of the dollar and the value of silver in relation to the dollar?

Personally, I feel we are waaaayyyy past that point. It would mean none of the countries we owe money to get their money. I'm guessing the consequences would include horrifically reduced trade, no real foreign relations with anyone, and possibly attempts to attack us. I know I had a thread on that a while ago. Some laughed, others mentioned the old saying about who is screwed depends on how much has been lent...

So ok... improving economic policy...what else?

Thanks!

-Emt1581
I guess a huge drop in industrial demand for silver. Not sure if that would happen though. Did it hurt the value of silver when photography went digital?
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Old 04-15-2011, 20:48   #536
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The Middle East settles down the price of oil falls back to levels supported by consumption.

The market looks like it is recovering and the risk of a double dip recession falls.

The US Congress stops bickering and actually puts together a sound stable fiscal plan. If it includes Corporate tax cuts or reduced taxes on capital gains and dividends, then the market will skyrocket and gold and silver will fall as people who were parking their cash get out.

These are things that could happen.

People have been parking their cash in commodities, driving their prices up. The volumes in the oil market and the gold and silver markets far outstrips the volume of the commodities available. It makes for insanity.

Did anyone look at the really long term trend for silver that someone posted a chart of? It hardly looks like an inflation hedge.

I wish everyone good luck on their silver.

I have silver, but I neither investing or divesting. I am happy with my paper return of 3000%. It is just lumps of metal with pretty pictures on it.

I am too risk averse to cash out my 401k. Commodities are just too volatile. I have lived to see a 90% decline of silver in a few months and gold drop from $800 to 300 over a relativelt short time and neither has regained their inflation adjusted high.
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Old 04-15-2011, 22:11   #537
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I appreciate the last few replies but I need some serious devil's advocates here... What could cause the value of the dollar to rise and/or silver to fall in relation to the dollar?

Thanks!

-Emt1581
Obama balances the budget and unemployment goes to 5.5%
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Old 04-16-2011, 05:31   #538
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Obama balances the budget and unemployment goes to 5.5%
...and monkeys fly out of my ***
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Old 04-16-2011, 07:57   #539
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Obama balances the budget and unemployment goes to 5.5%
Case in point - silver @ $42.99.
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Old 04-16-2011, 10:06   #540
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Case in point - silver @ $42.99.

In other words, if he could have done it he would have done it by now?

CAN he still do it though?

Thanks

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Old 04-16-2011, 10:21   #541
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He won't do it.
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Old 04-16-2011, 10:25   #542
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In other words, if he could have done it he would have done it by now?

CAN he still do it though?
It CAN be done, but there's absolutely NOTHING from the last few decades of history to indicate it will be done. Even worse, Obama's stated policies will only exacerbate the situation.

So, theoretically possible? Yes, possible.

Practically speaking? No, impossible.
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Old 04-16-2011, 10:26   #543
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It CAN be done, but there's absolutely NOTHING from the last few decades of history to indicate it will be done. Even worse, Obama's stated policies will only exacerbate the situation.

So, theoretically possible? Yes, possible.

Practically speaking? No, impossible.
Ok. So is there anything racerford stated that has any remote chance of happening?

Thanks!

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Old 04-16-2011, 10:34   #544
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Ok. So is there anything racerford stated that has any remote chance of happening?

Thanks!

-Emt1581
I think some of those things could happen (specifically, the ME might calm down allowing oil prices to fall a bit, though it's not pure speculation that's driving the price up as in 2008), but it would take ALL of those and then some to happen to bring the dollar back from the brink.

I just keep thinking this - the fedgov has done nothing to strengthen the dollar's foundation (in fact the fed's current policy has undermined it's strength) and the fedgov has done nothing to really address our economic issues.

My thoughts, which stem from talking to those who know FAR more than I do regarding the economy, are that unless / until we see serious change from the fed and fedgov, the dollar will continue to weaken. I mean, while economics on this scale are incredibly complex and really, as much theory as anything else, the reality is they're continuing policies that got us here in the first place while ignoring the obvious things that need to be addressed.

The real question is not 'what can they do to stop this', but 'what are they willing to do, and is it enough'...
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Old 04-16-2011, 11:24   #545
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In other words, if he could have done it he would have done it by now?

CAN he still do it though?

Thanks

-Emt1581
I don't think that it can be done without inflation or default. We take in revenues of 2.5 trillion and spend 3.8 trillion +/-. We will soon owe 15 trillion.

The math of honest repayment is about 0 % possible. We would have to reduce spending by 1.3 trillion just to live within our means. And none of this considers that all of this borrowing and printing will cause inflation and a rise in interest rates. How much do you think the interest payment will be on 15 trillion dollars at 15%? It's over 2 trillion dollars per year! We are never going to be able to pay this debt, we are going to inflate it away.
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Old 04-16-2011, 13:24   #546
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I don't think that it can be done without inflation or default. We take in revenues of 2.5 trillion and spend 3.8 trillion +/-. We will soon owe 15 trillion.

The math of honest repayment is about 0 % possible. We would have to reduce spending by 1.3 trillion just to live within our means. And none of this considers that all of this borrowing and printing will cause inflation and a rise in interest rates. How much do you think the interest payment will be on 15 trillion dollars at 15%? It's over 2 trillion dollars per year! We are never going to be able to pay this debt, we are going to inflate it away.
Here's something I didn't think to ask...

The US Gov./Economy is notorious for BSing it's way out of trouble/responsibility. So assuming they continue behaving somewhere between delusional and downright fictional, how could they invent/create a solution even if it is not a sound one.

I ask this because I can picture it now "don't let this fool you, it's a short term solution at best. The problem is still there and we're still going to hell in a hand basket!!"...while Silver plummets to $5 and the dollar makes a come back.

So thinking outside the box...what is the US Gov. capable of doing at this point, legal or not...fiscally sound or not..., to improve things?

Thanks!

-Emt1581
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Old 04-16-2011, 13:32   #547
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Linotype is still about $2 per lb.
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Old 04-16-2011, 14:34   #548
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Here's something I didn't think to ask...

The US Gov./Economy is notorious for BSing it's way out of trouble/responsibility. So assuming they continue behaving somewhere between delusional and downright fictional, how could they invent/create a solution even if it is not a sound one.

I ask this because I can picture it now "don't let this fool you, it's a short term solution at best. The problem is still there and we're still going to hell in a hand basket!!"...while Silver plummets to $5 and the dollar makes a come back.

So thinking outside the box...what is the US Gov. capable of doing at this point, legal or not...fiscally sound or not..., to improve things?

Thanks!

-Emt1581
Only two things: Print money or say "We are not paying on our bonds."

They won't default because that only gets the government off of the hook, every business and home owner is hung out to dry. So we will inflate our way out of it by printing money as fast as we can, and once inflation starts rolling it's really hard to stop it.

Anybody else see where some major countries are gathered in China right this minute trying to decide on a formula of currencies and commodities to replace the dollar as the worlds reserve currency? The day they announce it will be the economic equivelent of Pearl Harbor. "Oil today is selling for 52 worldo's per barrell, which here in the U.S. is about $450 per barrell".
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Old 04-16-2011, 15:07   #549
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Only two things: Print money or say "We are not paying on our bonds."

They won't default because that only gets the government off of the hook, every business and home owner is hung out to dry. So we will inflate our way out of it by printing money as fast as we can, and once inflation starts rolling it's really hard to stop it.

Anybody else see where some major countries are gathered in China right this minute trying to decide on a formula of currencies and commodities to replace the dollar as the worlds reserve currency? The day they announce it will be the economic equivelent of Pearl Harbor. "Oil today is selling for 52 worldo's per barrell, which here in the U.S. is about $450 per barrell".
I've heard they were looking to replace for the last year or two now though...no?

In terms of a global currency...what happens then?...No more investing in other countries currencies and such? Are all identical goods priced the same world-wide (ex. candy bar is .50 Worldo's in Florida and Madrid)?

I remember someone on here saying that if the US ever did a quick currency swap, we'd lose a lot, or at least not gain anything, in Silver value. But how realistic is a currency collapse/swap? I think we'd sooner turn Zimbabwe with Trillion Dollar Bills rather than let it collapse altogether...

Thoughts? Thanks!

-Emt1581
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Old 04-16-2011, 15:24   #550
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I've heard they were looking to replace for the last year or two now though...no?

In terms of a global currency...what happens then?...No more investing in other countries currencies and such? Are all identical goods priced the same world-wide (ex. candy bar is .50 Worldo's in Florida and Madrid)?

I remember someone on here saying that if the US ever did a quick currency swap, we'd lose a lot, or at least not gain anything, in Silver value. But how realistic is a currency collapse/swap? I think we'd sooner turn Zimbabwe with Trillion Dollar Bills rather than let it collapse altogether...

Thoughts? Thanks!

-Emt1581
In a currency swap, the value of your silver will not change. Silver just isn't priced in US Dollars.
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