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Old 08-06-2011, 10:20   #21
Glocktastic
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Better to be far ahead of a situation and have overreacted than to be behind it and cursing yourself because you refused to follow your instincts.

Cheers Kirgi! Glad you made it there safely. Peace.
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Old 08-06-2011, 11:52   #22
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different response

OP is probably ahead of the curve. However, it is better to be ahead than behind.

I give credence to the concept that there is a slow decline. Essentially, the middle class is being slowly squeezed. This is not new. It isn't a surprise to the people who frequent this forum.

Why would you expect other people in the world to be stupid and not perceive that the United States is enacting expensive federal programs, not balancing its budget and not demonstrating fiscal responsibility?

All a rating agency does is "rate".

The effect of a downgrade by one rating service - people simply demand a higher rate of return in US obligations. Or, they buy obligations of other countries. Or they spend their money elsewhere.

So, how do you get your "rating" back up? You cut expenditures or raise taxes or both. So, do you really expect expenditures to be cut when the projected budget deficit for the next fiscal year is $1.2 TRILLION dollars? I don't.

So, if OP is reacting ahead of the curve, it isn't going to be too far ahead.
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Old 08-06-2011, 13:58   #23
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Where will you be going?

Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade? A downgrade that was based on faulty calculations BTW, which may cause them to retract it.

Last edited by cowboy1964; 08-06-2011 at 13:59..
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Old 08-06-2011, 15:08   #24
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Better laughed at for being too early than being too late. All the best, 'o8!
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Old 08-06-2011, 15:52   #25
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Thanks for posting this thread 08. I've been thinking about the possible outcomes from this and the follow up by Moody's at the end of the month. I'm no economist, so I'm glad to hear everyone else's perspective and 'alert level'.

In my humble opinion it's going to be a slow decline too as people are only now speculating as to the real effects of this. If the media was ever handy for anything, it will be to ignore this major SNAFU of their boss, so the effects could be mitigated even beyond what they 'should' be.

Either way, what a great exercise for you. I bet you learn more from this than you have in quite some time about your plans, what works, and what doesn't.

I've been a camper since I was a kid, more than 20 years. STILL almost every time I go, I have an "aw ****!!!" moment when I start unpacking gear. But luckily, I've had enough experience that I probably have 1 or more backups of said missing gear. Only way you get there is by doing it a lot.

Seems to me that if nothing happens, you haven't really lost anything except maybe your wife will have possibly missed a day or two of work. But there will be LOTS of lessons learned, which could prove invaluable in the future. As much as we prep, making the right decisions of what's most important at the time is really valuable.

Hoping this is just a 'dry run' for you. Guess we'll know more in about 3 days.
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Old 08-06-2011, 16:11   #26
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Better laughed at for being too early than being too late. All the best, 'o8!
I don't think she'd say that!
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Old 08-06-2011, 17:44   #27
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What do you see the situation playing out that you need to go to your BOL?
I'm not there,I'm home.My wife and child are there.This could be considered a test and nothing more.As ta the "scenario",I don't know how this will play out.I'm waiting just like you all are,if it's nothing fine.If it does turn inta a mess were ahead of the curve.I figure it'll be a lot easier ta move me and one truck than 3 and 3 trucks.My inlaws are ready and are watching as well as I am.

I'm praying that this will be a exercise and nothing more,I however have no desire ta be caught flatfooted.Look at it this way,my family is out there fishing and having fun.It's like a prebooked vacation.I'm the only one working so I'm still working while there out there.'08.
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Old 08-06-2011, 17:45   #28
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What exactly is so unsafe about your regular AO that you feel the need to compulsively leave on a pre-emptive basis when nothing has happened or is imminent?

Your home AO is probably a pretty safe place to begin with, and there is no telling if the current situation isn;t just gonna unfold slowly over a period of months...

dont panic, remain cool under pressure. That's leadership.
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Old 08-06-2011, 18:28   #29
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Good on ya, 08! Hopefully the worst will not come to pass, and this will only serve as a good practice run, but if not, then you are ahead of the game. To the naysayers on here, like O8 says, no one is being harmed, his family is having a good time in a natural setting, and if worse tcomes to worst, he is prepared. All the best!!
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Old 08-06-2011, 18:28   #30
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I don't think that any of us can say if it will be Monday or 5 years from now but I think that Kirgi is correct that could be any day now. Things have left the predictable and ventured into the completely unpredictable. Things are getting sporty in some parts of the country right now.
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Old 08-06-2011, 18:44   #31
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Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade?

If you are a day trader operating on margin, if the market starts to go down, you have to cover, get out or sell short.

If you are a mutual fund and sense that the value of your portfolio is about to drop, then you go to cash.
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Old 08-06-2011, 18:53   #32
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Could anyone tell me if this down grade could lose the dollar's spot as the world's reserve currency? And if so, what changes would come about it this would happen? (Good and Bad)
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Old 08-06-2011, 19:05   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdcochran View Post
Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade?

If you are a day trader operating on margin, if the market starts to go down, you have to cover, get out or sell short.

If you are a mutual fund and sense that the value of your portfolio is about to drop, then you go to cash.

This is not a result of a "panic",it's a dry run with motive,granted it maybe nothing.As ta mutual funds,we cashed our out when silver and gold began ta climb.'08.
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Old 08-06-2011, 19:34   #34
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A downgrade on a country's obligations does not mean that a country's money is not held as reserves by banks or other countries.

A 2011 study about the current dominant reserve currency in central banks shows that dollar may not be the obvious dominant currency, because of the major part of Unallocated Reserves increasingly reported by central banks since 2001
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Old 08-06-2011, 19:58   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdcochran View Post
Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade?

If you are a day trader operating on margin, if the market starts to go down, you have to cover, get out or sell short.

If you are a mutual fund and sense that the value of your portfolio is about to drop, then you go to cash.
It's a situation like the emperor with no clothes on, everybody says how nice he looks in his new robes until just one person says "You ain't got no clothes" and then it's all over.
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Old 08-06-2011, 20:58   #36
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Very informative post pugman, the only thing is I kinda disagree with your assessment of how much time we have, and I'll try to explain why.

When people look at a situation, they tend to do it from their perspective and using their own rationale. The hardest part of predicting time frames is considering the effect all the stuff happening has on people who are not in your particular situation, nor have your rationale.
Please don't take it wrong because we all do it to some degree or another, and I am probably guilty of putting too much emphasis on the effect a situation has on others.

I have no idea whether or not at this point you have considered it or not, so I might be preaching to the choir, but here goes...

I think we are quickly approaching a boiling point in this country with racial tension, while simultaneously reaching a boiling point with economic crisis. The "financially challenged" will be the first to respond to the economic crisis. There are allot of people of all race that are part of this "financially challenged" group. With racial tension and financial crisis, come riots. With riots comes civil disorder, with civil disorder comes increased insecurity in the stability of members of society. Things are going to snowball, and in my estimation we have less time than the 2-5 years you predict.

It's just another opinion, subject to my own rationale and perspective.
My assessment is strictly a guess.

The things I think everyone on this board will agree with.

The government will try and exercise its control as long as possible.

Our situation has no clear solution and only appears to be getting worse. By this I mean the debt will continue to increase and the federal government's promises and obligations will only continue to increase (which frankly is their own fault).

The Fed's/administration's response generally is to throw money at the problem. This money can take the form of tax cuts, borrowing and spending or taxing to reallocate money. Remember the moves Bush tried about sending people (including those who didn't pay taxes) $600? Seriously anyone with a high school education could see sending this money would have absolutely no impact; about at bad as the Obama administration extending unemployment benefits to 99 weeks.

The S won't hit the fan until the average person doesn't eat for more than a 12 hour period of time.
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Old 08-07-2011, 04:09   #37
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My assessment is strictly a guess.

The things I think everyone on this board will agree with.

The government will try and exercise its control as long as possible.

Our situation has no clear solution and only appears to be getting worse. By this I mean the debt will continue to increase and the federal government's promises and obligations will only continue to increase (which frankly is their own fault).

The Fed's/administration's response generally is to throw money at the problem. This money can take the form of tax cuts, borrowing and spending or taxing to reallocate money. Remember the moves Bush tried about sending people (including those who didn't pay taxes) $600? Seriously anyone with a high school education could see sending this money would have absolutely no impact; about at bad as the Obama administration extending unemployment benefits to 99 weeks.

The S won't hit the fan until the average person doesn't eat for more than a 12 hour period of time.

You hit that nail on the head!
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Old 08-07-2011, 04:26   #38
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You hit that nail on the head!
Now your gonna stay around on a "maybe",I'd rather not roll the dice,it's my family.Granted the field is wide open,folks,I'm running a DRILL.The results will vary.I sorta frown on those that think that we're crying wolf.'08.
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Old 08-07-2011, 04:44   #39
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I'm gonna say this,there having a blast.A 18 in trout and a buck scrape that's at 6ft +/-.I'm working,their enjoying a pre bought vacation.What some are ignoring is the point.We don't care about the verbage .media is espousing.We are looking thru non-rose colored glasses.There is nothing either party can espouse that will cloud our eyes ta the reality of REALITY.We're bankrupt and the sooner it hits bottom the sooner this nation can recover.

We want NO part of this,we will ghost and let the chips fall as they may.'08.
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Old 08-07-2011, 09:13   #40
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There is nothing either party can espouse that will cloud our eyes ta the reality of REALITY.We're bankrupt and the sooner it hits bottom the sooner this nation can recover.

We want NO part of this,we will ghost and let the chips fall as they may.'08.
On the money kirgi. You do what you think is right and let others do what they think is right. I am still waiting for anyone to show me the math how we can get out of this thing financially, it's not possible. As proved in Wisconsin you never know when things will get ugly or how ugly things will get. If my plan were to scoot, I would be thinking about being ready to scoot too.
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