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Old 08-06-2011, 16:11   #26
Dexters
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Better laughed at for being too early than being too late. All the best, 'o8!
I don't think she'd say that!
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Old 08-06-2011, 17:44   #27
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What do you see the situation playing out that you need to go to your BOL?
I'm not there,I'm home.My wife and child are there.This could be considered a test and nothing more.As ta the "scenario",I don't know how this will play out.I'm waiting just like you all are,if it's nothing fine.If it does turn inta a mess were ahead of the curve.I figure it'll be a lot easier ta move me and one truck than 3 and 3 trucks.My inlaws are ready and are watching as well as I am.

I'm praying that this will be a exercise and nothing more,I however have no desire ta be caught flatfooted.Look at it this way,my family is out there fishing and having fun.It's like a prebooked vacation.I'm the only one working so I'm still working while there out there.'08.
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Old 08-06-2011, 17:45   #28
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What exactly is so unsafe about your regular AO that you feel the need to compulsively leave on a pre-emptive basis when nothing has happened or is imminent?

Your home AO is probably a pretty safe place to begin with, and there is no telling if the current situation isn;t just gonna unfold slowly over a period of months...

dont panic, remain cool under pressure. That's leadership.
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Old 08-06-2011, 18:28   #29
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Good on ya, 08! Hopefully the worst will not come to pass, and this will only serve as a good practice run, but if not, then you are ahead of the game. To the naysayers on here, like O8 says, no one is being harmed, his family is having a good time in a natural setting, and if worse tcomes to worst, he is prepared. All the best!!
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Old 08-06-2011, 18:28   #30
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I don't think that any of us can say if it will be Monday or 5 years from now but I think that Kirgi is correct that could be any day now. Things have left the predictable and ventured into the completely unpredictable. Things are getting sporty in some parts of the country right now.
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Old 08-06-2011, 18:44   #31
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Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade?

If you are a day trader operating on margin, if the market starts to go down, you have to cover, get out or sell short.

If you are a mutual fund and sense that the value of your portfolio is about to drop, then you go to cash.
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Old 08-06-2011, 18:53   #32
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Could anyone tell me if this down grade could lose the dollar's spot as the world's reserve currency? And if so, what changes would come about it this would happen? (Good and Bad)
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Old 08-06-2011, 19:05   #33
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Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade?

If you are a day trader operating on margin, if the market starts to go down, you have to cover, get out or sell short.

If you are a mutual fund and sense that the value of your portfolio is about to drop, then you go to cash.

This is not a result of a "panic",it's a dry run with motive,granted it maybe nothing.As ta mutual funds,we cashed our out when silver and gold began ta climb.'08.
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Old 08-06-2011, 19:34   #34
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A downgrade on a country's obligations does not mean that a country's money is not held as reserves by banks or other countries.

A 2011 study about the current dominant reserve currency in central banks shows that dollar may not be the obvious dominant currency, because of the major part of Unallocated Reserves increasingly reported by central banks since 2001
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Old 08-06-2011, 19:58   #35
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Originally Posted by bdcochran View Post
Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade?

If you are a day trader operating on margin, if the market starts to go down, you have to cover, get out or sell short.

If you are a mutual fund and sense that the value of your portfolio is about to drop, then you go to cash.
It's a situation like the emperor with no clothes on, everybody says how nice he looks in his new robes until just one person says "You ain't got no clothes" and then it's all over.
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Old 08-06-2011, 20:58   #36
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Very informative post pugman, the only thing is I kinda disagree with your assessment of how much time we have, and I'll try to explain why.

When people look at a situation, they tend to do it from their perspective and using their own rationale. The hardest part of predicting time frames is considering the effect all the stuff happening has on people who are not in your particular situation, nor have your rationale.
Please don't take it wrong because we all do it to some degree or another, and I am probably guilty of putting too much emphasis on the effect a situation has on others.

I have no idea whether or not at this point you have considered it or not, so I might be preaching to the choir, but here goes...

I think we are quickly approaching a boiling point in this country with racial tension, while simultaneously reaching a boiling point with economic crisis. The "financially challenged" will be the first to respond to the economic crisis. There are allot of people of all race that are part of this "financially challenged" group. With racial tension and financial crisis, come riots. With riots comes civil disorder, with civil disorder comes increased insecurity in the stability of members of society. Things are going to snowball, and in my estimation we have less time than the 2-5 years you predict.

It's just another opinion, subject to my own rationale and perspective.
My assessment is strictly a guess.

The things I think everyone on this board will agree with.

The government will try and exercise its control as long as possible.

Our situation has no clear solution and only appears to be getting worse. By this I mean the debt will continue to increase and the federal government's promises and obligations will only continue to increase (which frankly is their own fault).

The Fed's/administration's response generally is to throw money at the problem. This money can take the form of tax cuts, borrowing and spending or taxing to reallocate money. Remember the moves Bush tried about sending people (including those who didn't pay taxes) $600? Seriously anyone with a high school education could see sending this money would have absolutely no impact; about at bad as the Obama administration extending unemployment benefits to 99 weeks.

The S won't hit the fan until the average person doesn't eat for more than a 12 hour period of time.
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Old 08-07-2011, 04:09   #37
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My assessment is strictly a guess.

The things I think everyone on this board will agree with.

The government will try and exercise its control as long as possible.

Our situation has no clear solution and only appears to be getting worse. By this I mean the debt will continue to increase and the federal government's promises and obligations will only continue to increase (which frankly is their own fault).

The Fed's/administration's response generally is to throw money at the problem. This money can take the form of tax cuts, borrowing and spending or taxing to reallocate money. Remember the moves Bush tried about sending people (including those who didn't pay taxes) $600? Seriously anyone with a high school education could see sending this money would have absolutely no impact; about at bad as the Obama administration extending unemployment benefits to 99 weeks.

The S won't hit the fan until the average person doesn't eat for more than a 12 hour period of time.

You hit that nail on the head!
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Old 08-07-2011, 04:26   #38
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You hit that nail on the head!
Now your gonna stay around on a "maybe",I'd rather not roll the dice,it's my family.Granted the field is wide open,folks,I'm running a DRILL.The results will vary.I sorta frown on those that think that we're crying wolf.'08.
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Old 08-07-2011, 04:44   #39
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I'm gonna say this,there having a blast.A 18 in trout and a buck scrape that's at 6ft +/-.I'm working,their enjoying a pre bought vacation.What some are ignoring is the point.We don't care about the verbage .media is espousing.We are looking thru non-rose colored glasses.There is nothing either party can espouse that will cloud our eyes ta the reality of REALITY.We're bankrupt and the sooner it hits bottom the sooner this nation can recover.

We want NO part of this,we will ghost and let the chips fall as they may.'08.
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Old 08-07-2011, 09:13   #40
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There is nothing either party can espouse that will cloud our eyes ta the reality of REALITY.We're bankrupt and the sooner it hits bottom the sooner this nation can recover.

We want NO part of this,we will ghost and let the chips fall as they may.'08.
On the money kirgi. You do what you think is right and let others do what they think is right. I am still waiting for anyone to show me the math how we can get out of this thing financially, it's not possible. As proved in Wisconsin you never know when things will get ugly or how ugly things will get. If my plan were to scoot, I would be thinking about being ready to scoot too.
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Old 08-07-2011, 09:41   #41
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Over reaction. . .

This will be a slow motion train wreck that might take a couple years to complete.

The people running the Gov are masters at manipulating finances. Plus they haven't even got around to raping our 401Ks and IRS yet. . .

My guess is 3-5 years yet:

More taxes w/ token spending cuts
Even more taxes w/ token spending cuts
Yet even more taxes w/ token spending cuts
Rumors of SS/Medicare default
Plan to nationalize part of your 401K/IRA (for your protection!)
Plan to nationalize more of your 401K/IRA
Plan to nationalize the rest of your 401K/IRA

401K/IRA money gone. .
Borrowing expensive because of the even lower credit rating (maybe hitting the 'B's)

Then things fall apart
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Old 08-07-2011, 11:02   #42
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On the money kirgi. You do what you think is right and let others do what they think is right. I am still waiting for anyone to show me the math how we can get out of this thing financially, it's not possible. As proved in Wisconsin you never know when things will get ugly or how ugly things will get. If my plan were to scoot, I would be thinking about being ready to scoot too.
Its possible...it really is. The question is if its acceptable.

It would be very, very ugly. In effect the fed would have to either double its tax revenue or cut services in half.

In effect, every person in the country would be working for the federal government in one way or another. Discretionary spending and personal retirement saving would nearly stop.

The question is would the populace accept this for the next 30-100 years.

The government's problem is they have painted themselves into a corner where any correction will be harmful. Talk about removing the mortgage interest deduction on your taxes....drive a stake into the heart of the real estate market. Raid 401K and IRA accounts...kill the financial sector.
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Old 08-07-2011, 11:18   #43
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I

It would be very, very ugly. In effect the fed would have to either double its tax revenue or cut services in half.
And let's not forget that if it is very, very ugly in the USA it will be very, very very, very, very, very, very very, very, very, very, very very, very, very, very ugly outside the USA. The USA drives much of the economies outside of it.
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Old 08-07-2011, 12:42   #44
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We're bankrupt and the sooner it hits bottom the sooner this nation can recover.

That is pure gold!


Bankrupt.... & deep in denial!

Unsustainable spending is.....u-n-s-u-s-t-a-i-n-a-b-l-e!!!!


The federal government wastes money like it is trash..

..like we are soooo wealthy that it would be a crime not to "spread the wealth"..


Well....wealthy is not stealing from future generations to allow short-sighted & counterproductive 'binge spending'...wealthy is not owing enemies of the USA TRILLIONS of dollars they can use to leverage and/or damage us with.....wealthy is not stealing money from lifelong hardworking grandma's & grandpa's social security trust fund just so "pimp daddy & entitlement crack momma" can propagate 10 more just like them....wealthy is not wasting money you do not have & cannot possibly repay....wealthy is not having a crumbling national infrastructure.... wealthy is not "thumbing a ride" with the Soviets because you no longer have a viable space program......do I really need to go on...


Well...due to government stupidity, greed, counterproductive social programs, excessive regulations on business, constitutional amendments, ever increasing unconstitutional encroachment into state & individual rights/responsibilities, military misadventures, etc ....

..the land of milk & honey developed by the sweat & blood of my forefathers..

..over hundreds of years of toil..

..is now anything but the land of opportunity & freedom...IMO!


But if we can shrink the MONSTER in Washington DC back into Pandora's Box..

..this country has a chance to once again fufil the dream of freedom & opportunity it once was..

...if not...

..it is my firm belief that we are collectively in for a rough ride..

..and a hard landing!
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Old 08-07-2011, 12:43   #45
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Its possible...it really is. The question is if its acceptable.

It would be very, very ugly. In effect the fed would have to either double its tax revenue or cut services in half.

In effect, every person in the country would be working for the federal government in one way or another. Discretionary spending and personal retirement saving would nearly stop.

The question is would the populace accept this for the next 30-100 years.

The government's problem is they have painted themselves into a corner where any correction will be harmful. Talk about removing the mortgage interest deduction on your taxes....drive a stake into the heart of the real estate market. Raid 401K and IRA accounts...kill the financial sector.
I believe that 100% government taxation will no longer support the federal, state and local budgets. Where does that leave us? Balanced budget ammendment is the only cure, and it's a really painful one.
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Old 08-07-2011, 13:07   #46
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I'm more fatalistic then you.

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The federal government wastes money like it is trash..
It will continue to do so maybe with a hick up and then at a slower pace.


Quote:
Originally Posted by LongGun1 View Post


But if we can shrink the MONSTER in Washington DC back into Pandora's Box..

..this country has a chance to once again fufil the dream of freedom & opportunity it once was..
No empire has come back from their financial overspending.

http://www.iie.com/events/event_detail.cfm?EventID=152

My guess is this:
Yes, in the next election there will be a lot of talk about cutting spending and some will be done. The conservatives are in control.

Compromises will be made - some tax increases, some costs cuts and it will look like the issue has been address. BUT, in reality THERE ARE SOME VERY OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTIONS IN THE COMPROMISE that do not come to be.

The the fighters for the poor will say they have taken the brunt of the cutting - spending increases. The liberals are in control.

A national sales tax is implemented in addition to an income tax. This does not decrease the debt.

Just look towards Europe for our future.

Here is the deal. I think my scenario is optimistic. We first need to get through the next 10 years which will see higher unemployment rates (increasing social support spending & lower gov't tax revenues), lower wages for those that do work (lower gov't tax revenues) and lower spending by gov't, businesses and individuals (lower gov't tax revenues).
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Old 08-07-2011, 14:14   #47
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I belive drills are excellent training. The fact of the matter is that there may be many more opportunities to run them because we never really know what event will be the tipping point. Short of some act of war or terrorism, I believe the economy will continue to grind toward a certifiable depression.

Personally, I'm looking for more social unrest here and that won't happen, to a large extent, until austerity measures begin and are felt by the masses. Europe and South America are the canaries in the mine, imho.

Politically, we'll begin to see the masses looking for a messaih, like in the 30's when the US communist party begin to grow or Germany's Nazi party took power.

What are we going to do differently? Probably not much. For us, it's a lifestyle.

By the way, Israel's market is down 7% today.

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Old 08-07-2011, 15:13   #48
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No empire has come back from their financial overspending.


Not really looking for an "empire"..

..a constitutional republic suits me just fine!
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Old 08-07-2011, 15:24   #49
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That will require a new beginning,we've lost sight of our roots.'08.
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Old 08-07-2011, 18:23   #50
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Hey '08,

I admire and envy your preparedness.

As Ruble said earlier -- the worst case outcome for you is that you will have gone through a practical exercise, have had an opportunity to fine-tune your strategies, and have possibly figured out more of what you need (or don't need, for that matter). And in the best case (strange to refer to it that way...), you will already be essentially positioned where you need to be.

Wifey and I are hardly so admirably positioned. We have no BOL, so we'll do our best to "hunker down" in our house. Road arteries out of the Washington metropolitan area are limited and would congest immediately -- so if you're not already out, you're not going anywhere for awhile.

Man -- I can't wait till I'm retired and we can relocate someplace, like maybe somewhere in the southwest...


.
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