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Old 08-07-2011, 09:41   #41
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Over reaction. . .

This will be a slow motion train wreck that might take a couple years to complete.

The people running the Gov are masters at manipulating finances. Plus they haven't even got around to raping our 401Ks and IRS yet. . .

My guess is 3-5 years yet:

More taxes w/ token spending cuts
Even more taxes w/ token spending cuts
Yet even more taxes w/ token spending cuts
Rumors of SS/Medicare default
Plan to nationalize part of your 401K/IRA (for your protection!)
Plan to nationalize more of your 401K/IRA
Plan to nationalize the rest of your 401K/IRA

401K/IRA money gone. .
Borrowing expensive because of the even lower credit rating (maybe hitting the 'B's)

Then things fall apart
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Old 08-07-2011, 11:02   #42
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Originally Posted by UneasyRider View Post
On the money kirgi. You do what you think is right and let others do what they think is right. I am still waiting for anyone to show me the math how we can get out of this thing financially, it's not possible. As proved in Wisconsin you never know when things will get ugly or how ugly things will get. If my plan were to scoot, I would be thinking about being ready to scoot too.
Its possible...it really is. The question is if its acceptable.

It would be very, very ugly. In effect the fed would have to either double its tax revenue or cut services in half.

In effect, every person in the country would be working for the federal government in one way or another. Discretionary spending and personal retirement saving would nearly stop.

The question is would the populace accept this for the next 30-100 years.

The government's problem is they have painted themselves into a corner where any correction will be harmful. Talk about removing the mortgage interest deduction on your taxes....drive a stake into the heart of the real estate market. Raid 401K and IRA accounts...kill the financial sector.
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Old 08-07-2011, 11:18   #43
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I

It would be very, very ugly. In effect the fed would have to either double its tax revenue or cut services in half.
And let's not forget that if it is very, very ugly in the USA it will be very, very very, very, very, very, very very, very, very, very, very very, very, very, very ugly outside the USA. The USA drives much of the economies outside of it.
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Old 08-07-2011, 12:42   #44
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We're bankrupt and the sooner it hits bottom the sooner this nation can recover.

That is pure gold!


Bankrupt.... & deep in denial!

Unsustainable spending is.....u-n-s-u-s-t-a-i-n-a-b-l-e!!!!


The federal government wastes money like it is trash..

..like we are soooo wealthy that it would be a crime not to "spread the wealth"..


Well....wealthy is not stealing from future generations to allow short-sighted & counterproductive 'binge spending'...wealthy is not owing enemies of the USA TRILLIONS of dollars they can use to leverage and/or damage us with.....wealthy is not stealing money from lifelong hardworking grandma's & grandpa's social security trust fund just so "pimp daddy & entitlement crack momma" can propagate 10 more just like them....wealthy is not wasting money you do not have & cannot possibly repay....wealthy is not having a crumbling national infrastructure.... wealthy is not "thumbing a ride" with the Soviets because you no longer have a viable space program......do I really need to go on...


Well...due to government stupidity, greed, counterproductive social programs, excessive regulations on business, constitutional amendments, ever increasing unconstitutional encroachment into state & individual rights/responsibilities, military misadventures, etc ....

..the land of milk & honey developed by the sweat & blood of my forefathers..

..over hundreds of years of toil..

..is now anything but the land of opportunity & freedom...IMO!


But if we can shrink the MONSTER in Washington DC back into Pandora's Box..

..this country has a chance to once again fufil the dream of freedom & opportunity it once was..

...if not...

..it is my firm belief that we are collectively in for a rough ride..

..and a hard landing!
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Old 08-07-2011, 12:43   #45
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Its possible...it really is. The question is if its acceptable.

It would be very, very ugly. In effect the fed would have to either double its tax revenue or cut services in half.

In effect, every person in the country would be working for the federal government in one way or another. Discretionary spending and personal retirement saving would nearly stop.

The question is would the populace accept this for the next 30-100 years.

The government's problem is they have painted themselves into a corner where any correction will be harmful. Talk about removing the mortgage interest deduction on your taxes....drive a stake into the heart of the real estate market. Raid 401K and IRA accounts...kill the financial sector.
I believe that 100% government taxation will no longer support the federal, state and local budgets. Where does that leave us? Balanced budget ammendment is the only cure, and it's a really painful one.
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Old 08-07-2011, 13:07   #46
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I'm more fatalistic then you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LongGun1 View Post

The federal government wastes money like it is trash..
It will continue to do so maybe with a hick up and then at a slower pace.


Quote:
Originally Posted by LongGun1 View Post


But if we can shrink the MONSTER in Washington DC back into Pandora's Box..

..this country has a chance to once again fufil the dream of freedom & opportunity it once was..
No empire has come back from their financial overspending.

http://www.iie.com/events/event_detail.cfm?EventID=152

My guess is this:
Yes, in the next election there will be a lot of talk about cutting spending and some will be done. The conservatives are in control.

Compromises will be made - some tax increases, some costs cuts and it will look like the issue has been address. BUT, in reality THERE ARE SOME VERY OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTIONS IN THE COMPROMISE that do not come to be.

The the fighters for the poor will say they have taken the brunt of the cutting - spending increases. The liberals are in control.

A national sales tax is implemented in addition to an income tax. This does not decrease the debt.

Just look towards Europe for our future.

Here is the deal. I think my scenario is optimistic. We first need to get through the next 10 years which will see higher unemployment rates (increasing social support spending & lower gov't tax revenues), lower wages for those that do work (lower gov't tax revenues) and lower spending by gov't, businesses and individuals (lower gov't tax revenues).
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Old 08-07-2011, 14:14   #47
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I belive drills are excellent training. The fact of the matter is that there may be many more opportunities to run them because we never really know what event will be the tipping point. Short of some act of war or terrorism, I believe the economy will continue to grind toward a certifiable depression.

Personally, I'm looking for more social unrest here and that won't happen, to a large extent, until austerity measures begin and are felt by the masses. Europe and South America are the canaries in the mine, imho.

Politically, we'll begin to see the masses looking for a messaih, like in the 30's when the US communist party begin to grow or Germany's Nazi party took power.

What are we going to do differently? Probably not much. For us, it's a lifestyle.

By the way, Israel's market is down 7% today.

Last edited by grasshoppa; 08-07-2011 at 14:16..
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Old 08-07-2011, 15:13   #48
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No empire has come back from their financial overspending.


Not really looking for an "empire"..

..a constitutional republic suits me just fine!
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Old 08-07-2011, 15:24   #49
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That will require a new beginning,we've lost sight of our roots.'08.
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Old 08-07-2011, 18:23   #50
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Hey '08,

I admire and envy your preparedness.

As Ruble said earlier -- the worst case outcome for you is that you will have gone through a practical exercise, have had an opportunity to fine-tune your strategies, and have possibly figured out more of what you need (or don't need, for that matter). And in the best case (strange to refer to it that way...), you will already be essentially positioned where you need to be.

Wifey and I are hardly so admirably positioned. We have no BOL, so we'll do our best to "hunker down" in our house. Road arteries out of the Washington metropolitan area are limited and would congest immediately -- so if you're not already out, you're not going anywhere for awhile.

Man -- I can't wait till I'm retired and we can relocate someplace, like maybe somewhere in the southwest...


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Old 08-07-2011, 19:32   #51
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Is this going to be a major SHTF event? Don't know. If it is, being ahead of the hordes is not a bad idea. If not, it is a good exercise and gives you the opportunity to evaluate and assess your preparedness planning by going through a trial run.
Concur. Good post.
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Old 08-07-2011, 19:34   #52
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Where will you be going?

Why are people panicking over a one notch CREDIT downgrade? A downgrade that was based on faulty calculations BTW, which may cause them to retract it.
LMAO.

Oh, I don't doubt it will be retracted. Faulty calculations?!
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Old 08-07-2011, 22:23   #53
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I don't think it's time for society to collapse just yet, but it's now a matter of when not if. I'm currently debating if it's time to stop worrying about savings and time to start worrying about buying everything I need. I'm not sure it's time for that yet either.
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Old 08-08-2011, 11:32   #54
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Sounds like a successful dry-run Kirgi. It definitely pays to be ahead of the curve, especially if the outcome is a vacation at the BOL. Lord knows I wouldn't mind having a place like that to spend my weekends!

Personally I think its a great idea to have a sitdown with the family and talk about the impacts also. I did the same with my better half and we have decided to trim some stuff back for the next month or two at the minimum and see how it plays out.

It's obvious why Sam's was so busy on sunday, everyone was stocking up on grub and other stuff! We were there just getting the normal weekly necessities.

I'm with most other folks that I don't think that the downgrade is the end all but I do think it is a rude awakening to the guberment that they are on notice. However, I find it much better to be prudent and make a long weekend out of a visit to the BOL then the off chance that something could go south in a hurry.

I would guess that we will have a slow decline yet and that things won't get crazy outta hand for awhile...but that is solely my opinion. Time will tell and hopefully everyone else on here will heed the warning bells that you have.
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Old 08-08-2011, 16:19   #55
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I believe that 100% government taxation will no longer support the federal, state and local budgets. Where does that leave us? Balanced budget ammendment is the only cure, and it's a really painful one.
Don't miss my point....its possible...crazy, ludacris....but possible.

100% taxation would support the government.

If you use 2010 numbers of 2.14 Trillion in income vs 3.4 Trillion in expenditures doubling income would more than cover.

However, over the next 30 years the fed has $150 trillion in obligations...at 30 years...that is a cool $5 trillion a year. To make matters worse we aren't figuring in inflation and interest....call it $5.5-$6 trillion for good measure.

If the fed ate up about 40% of GDP would cover its costs. All along representatives would have their golden medical coverage plans and starting salaries placing them in the top 7-8% of the nation.

Like I said...its possible...although if they instituted a flat 40% tax across the board I doubt it would be collected long....
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Old 08-08-2011, 19:14   #56
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Don't miss my point....its possible...crazy, ludacris....but possible.

100% taxation would support the government.

If you use 2010 numbers of 2.14 Trillion in income vs 3.4 Trillion in expenditures doubling income would more than cover.

However, over the next 30 years the fed has $150 trillion in obligations...at 30 years...that is a cool $5 trillion a year. To make matters worse we aren't figuring in inflation and interest....call it $5.5-$6 trillion for good measure.

If the fed ate up about 40% of GDP would cover its costs. All along representatives would have their golden medical coverage plans and starting salaries placing them in the top 7-8% of the nation.

Like I said...its possible...although if they instituted a flat 40% tax across the board I doubt it would be collected long....
It won't work because I won't work if I don't get paid. 100% taxation means that everyone stays home, and that is what really bothers a progressive, raising tax rates hurts the economy and people of our country. We need to cut spending by a lot, quit giving away money (which ammendment allows that?), and get government out of the picture.

What I would do is eliminate taxes on businesses completely. Flat tax or fair tax for the federal government, and get rid of the commerce clause to the constitution with an ammendment.
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Old 08-13-2011, 07:48   #57
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Update.

Well there back home,my kid finished the archery course and spent a ton of time fishing and tracking.The wife filled 2 cards on her digital camera and introduced the in-laws in how ta clean/skin and prepare game.FIL was ok with it,MIL was squeamish at first but got the hang of it.It was kinda suggested she may need this skill or go hungry down the line.

Problems:

There were a few,one of the coleman lanterns had bad pump "O" rings,my kid showed the ILs how ta replace it.

Next, on inspection of the chimney a critter had gotten thru the mesh and taken up residence,a small fire in the stove moved them along.I'll repair that next week.

BIG problem on the last day they found evidence of someone shooting out there,I'll call a wildlife officer that's a friend and ask him ta keep an extra check.

Since it's a wee bit higher out there it takes a little longer ta cook rice/beans and ta bake bread/cake in the dutch ovens,they were using a firepit ta cook the whole time

Water:We have a well with a solar b/u and the solar panel needs ta be moved,I underestimated the growth of certain trees and will havta adjust the location.

Power:They fired up the diesel and then took a hike,they were trying ta see how far the noise sig carried,not far-about 30yrds,I built a military type baffle system for it-problem is the exhaust smoke-I'll figure that out.Fuel is 2yrs old and it fired rt up.

Access:Our vehicles got right out there,the ILs couldn't for the stream,AWD CRV,answer they need a decent,real 4wd,Kat had the Jeep,no probs.

Health:The actually gained a little weight even with all the activity: 2000cal base diet.

Comms:The cbs were spotty during the daylight,I attribute that ta the solar activity.It's reeking havoc on our work radios also.

Upside:

They worked as a team without me there ta couch,some would say DI them.
They worked on fire drills and unwanted company drills-I might add the dogs weren't out there,I needed them here when I was at work.

Skills:

They taught the ILs howta start fires with a blastmatch/9v steel wool/flint@steel and with zippo fluid.Howta build a birds nest and how/where ta find dry tinder.

Shooting:

Kat taught basic rifle with the 10/22s we brought out there,we also introduced them ta the joys of a AR-7,that'll take some work.

Pistols:Ruger mkIIs they all shot well with them,we moved them up ta a DA/SA ruger .38 police and started them out on SA then moved up ta DA,my MIL shoot that pistol better than my FIL did,he's aaahhh irritated,I expect there will be more "private" range time.

Blades:My kid showed them the basics of knife sharpening and safety,not bad for 11yo.I'll handle the axe and maul myself.Saws are also on the list.

Leisure:Card games/board games chess/checkers are a life saver in those type of scenarios.We have all the above x2.

Synopsis:

I believe this was a success and would encourage all folks ta try this with there families and take notes,Kat used a pocket recorder and took notes just ta be safe.All comments are welcome.Thanks.'08.
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Old 08-13-2011, 08:16   #58
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Thanks for the recap, '08. Survival/Preparedness Forum

Excellent work done out there -- lessons both learned and dispensed.

And it sounds like everyone had a pretty great time on top of that.

A win-win all around, I'd say...


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Old 08-13-2011, 08:34   #59
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Wow. All I did was move money out of bonds and into stocks, after the fall. A little bargain hunting was in order.
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Old 08-13-2011, 18:41   #60
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...........................
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