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Old 02-03-2012, 17:06   #1
Sgt. Rambo
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Predictions on Iran...

The rhetoric out of Iran is ramping up big time. Almost a new story per hour today from what I've read. From a S&P perspective, what predictions would you make for next six months, Post election, one year, and what it will mean for the S&P realm.
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Old 02-03-2012, 17:18   #2
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I think it's saber rattling, Israel generally doesn't announce before they atack. Unfortunately I believe Iran has their stuff to deep underground for Israel to be effective. Unfortunately all the attention will keep oil prices high. I personally was hoping for diesel prices to drop this winter and it really hasn't happened.
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Old 02-03-2012, 17:26   #3
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I hope its saber rattling too, a kind expression for those idiots, but I think it has more potential as time goes on. They have us by the short hairs with the oil.. at least for now. I just don't see Israel waiting around to get stomped on.
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Old 02-03-2012, 18:02   #4
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This is for real. Israel is the only country routinely threatened with outright annihilation by it's enemies and it's #1 enemy is getting close to going nuclear.

For Israel it's fight them now with conventionals or fight them in a few years with nukes. That's what it coming down to, unless Iran stops what they are doing.

My question is, will Iran actually be stupid enough to launch terrorist attacks on U.S. soil?

Last edited by cowboy1964; 02-03-2012 at 18:04..
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Old 02-03-2012, 18:03   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by farmer-dave View Post
I think it's saber rattling, Israel generally doesn't announce before they atack. Unfortunately I believe Iran has their stuff to deep underground for Israel to be effective. Unfortunately all the attention will keep oil prices high. I personally was hoping for diesel prices to drop this winter and it really hasn't happened.
I think we gave them some bunker busters here within the last 6 months. Maybe someone will remember more about it.
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Old 02-03-2012, 18:05   #6
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I think we gave them some bunker busters here within the last 6 months. Maybe someone will remember more about it.
This was in the news this week. The DoD is rushing development of an enhanced buster, capable of penetrating 200 feet of solid rock. (!)

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Old 02-03-2012, 18:06   #7
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Isn't it amazing how the mainstream media has ramped up it's propaganda? Let's see, we have Iran surrounded, we have 3 carrier groups over there, and Iran is the threat?!?! Give me a break.
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Old 02-03-2012, 18:22   #8
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Isn't it amazing how the mainstream media has ramped up it's propaganda? Let's see, we have Iran surrounded, we have 3 carrier groups over there, and Iran is the threat?!?! Give me a break.
No one will take them seriously until the mushroom cloud goes up.

Which is why they are trying to put one up as fast as they can.
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Old 02-03-2012, 18:30   #9
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So how does this or DOES this change your S&P attitude.... If it kicks off, how far does it go and what does it mean to us?? I'm going to fill every little gas can I have not that it will help much but it seems like Iran burps and prices go up. Does it affect food prices etc?

OH.. and I read on Drudge today that Iran is calling for a new world order....LOL
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Old 02-03-2012, 18:33   #10
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The current administration is beating the drums of war. They will stop at nothing to stay in power.
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Old 02-03-2012, 18:36   #11
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I wish it were just saber rattling. Believe it or not, it's up to you, but there are some cultural things to consider. The rulers in Iran belong to a specific sect of Shia Islam. Commonly referred to as "Twelvers".


Short Version

Long Version
Please don't mind the initial popup rants, I used to have a link to a bare version of this, the translation (in white) is from a different source, and apparently is accurate.





Wikipedia link on twelvers (I know, but check it out anyway)


Now, the tricky part is considering this information with the current events. Maybe the Iranians are just blowing smoke, or maybe they are pious in their beliefs. It is a theocracy.

The Judeo-Christian version of the end of times is that it will not be known when it will come, and they should prepare and wait for it. The Twelver version is that they have to do something to ignite the events that bring about the return of their religious savior. The real scary part about the prophesy, is that they expect 2/3 of the population of the world to perish, and they expect a devastating counter attack.

Mutually assured destruction is not a deterrent to that kind of mindset. I've heard many people say that if the Supreme Leader in Iran and his mouthpiece I'm-in-a-jihad were really planning on something like this, they would keep their mouth shut. But think about it. If you were on a mission from god to fulfill your destiny, wouldn't you believe that you were unstoppable? After all, it's a freakin' prophesy, to you, it's a sure thing.


So what will happen? Don't know.
What should the USA or Israel do? Don't know.

If Iran gets a nuke, and holds onto it like everyone else, and just uses it as a deterrent to keep people from screwing with them, then we should probably do nothing.

If Iran gets a Nuke, and uses it offensively as either a blackmail tool, or actually uncorks one or more outside of their own borders, then I am sure I am going to wish we had nuked them first.


There really is no way to get this one right with 100% accuracy and in an ethical manner without the benefit of hindsight.

It will be interesting to watch though.

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Old 02-03-2012, 18:42   #12
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Isreal didn't make the announcement Pennetta did. As far as oil prices we don't get a lot of oil from Iran, but I believe Europe does. Oil prices will go up for whatever excuse they can find.
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Old 02-03-2012, 18:52   #13
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Curious

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Originally Posted by redbrd View Post
Isreal didn't make the announcement Pennetta did. As far as oil prices we don't get a lot of oil from Iran, but I believe Europe does. Oil prices will go up for whatever excuse they can find.
I saw that as odd too. I think our current administration is trying to hold them back or hold them (Israelis) off until it suits them.
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Old 02-03-2012, 18:54   #14
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Originally Posted by BORNGEARHEAD View Post
Isn't it amazing how the mainstream media has ramped up it's propaganda? Let's see, we have Iran surrounded, we have 3 carrier groups over there, and Iran is the threat?!?! Give me a break.
********
Seems like Iran is and has been making all the Threats....and been making them for awhile now...as far as "surround"...Isreal is the one "surrounded" by the "Islamics"...as far as our "3 carrier groups"....thats a responce to the terrorists who are making all the threats....God Bless Isreal and Damnnnnn all the terrorist and `their supporters`......No breaks for terrorists and their supporters!

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Old 02-03-2012, 19:05   #15
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Here is why we will attack Iran. Just like Iraq. Just like Libya. Dollar, dollar bills, ya'll.

http://rt.com/news/iran-attack-us-allegations-243/

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Old 02-03-2012, 19:19   #16
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It's inevitable. Iran won't quit. The Islamist fundamentalists will drive Iran to imminent war to usher in the 12th Imam, the Mahdi. It's going to happen sooner or later. And honestly, later is getting to be much sooner than it used to be. Doubt all you will and deny what you want. It's coming whether you like it or not.
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Old 02-03-2012, 19:39   #17
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The current administration is beating the drums of war. They will stop at nothing to stay in power.
Yeah, if Israel attacks Iran it will be because Obama made them.
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Old 02-03-2012, 19:41   #18
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They are going to be in a world of hurt. That's my prediction.
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Old 02-03-2012, 19:45   #19
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Good article

Quote:
Originally Posted by BORNGEARHEAD View Post
Here is why we will attack Iran. Just like Iraq. Just like Libya. Dollar, dollar bills, ya'll.

http://rt.com/news/iran-attack-us-allegations-243/
Good read.. makes a lot of sense. There is an oil pipeline that plays into that equation also that Iran and the US want exclusive rights too.
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Old 02-03-2012, 20:16   #20
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Yeah, if Israel attacks Iran it will be because Obama made them.
Isreal will not act without a U.S. blessing and promise of support.
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