Your Economic Triggers for making "Final Preps"

UneasyRider · 02-05-2012, 08:42

A good many of us are concerned about the currency and the economy looking for signs of change that could indicate the begining of a currency devaluation. This thread is for those folks (me) and no hard feelings to anyone who does not see the economy as a survival threat, but you might want to ignore this discussion.

My economic indicators that I watch for are:

1) Inflation rate.
2) GDP
3) Yearly budget deficit.
4) How much money we are printing.
5) Employment.

These are the canary in the coal mine to me, what do YOU look at as an indicator that you should start making imminent preparations?

Examples would be if I see the monthly inflation rate (not annualized) go over 3 percent I will go all out.

Or if employment takes a really hard dip (not interested in the unemployment rate) by 3 million people or more in a year. I am all in, thus the last couple of years of extreme prepping for me.

JK-linux · 02-05-2012, 10:23

Are you talking about financial indicators that it's time for "final preps" as related to Mad Max, or "final preps" for a 10 year depression with a functioning government, intact military, 20% effective unemployment, big companies and millionaires and politicians still basically in control?

TangoFoxtrot · 02-05-2012, 10:29

As far as I'm concerned everyday in the U.S is tripping my survival triggers. The unemployment rate, U.S. dollar value, illegal's crossing the border, crime, local government cutbacks like police protection, Overseas events and economy and so on. My outlook is live life as best as possible and just be prepared as best as you can. NEVER EVER depend on government to defend or feed you. We only pay taxes to avoid jail. ...nothing else!

UneasyRider · 02-05-2012, 10:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by JK-linux

Are you talking about financial indicators that it's time for "final preps" as related to Mad Max, or "final preps" for a 10 year depression with a functioning government, intact military, 20% effective unemployment, big companies and millionaires and politicians still basically in control?

The 10 year great depression is what's on my mind, I am not a Mad Max scenario survivor.

Ruble Noon · 02-05-2012, 11:32

Retirement Savings: Will $4 Million Be Enough?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/retire...195700684.html

G29Reload · 02-05-2012, 13:02

If it were a 20 min warning nuke deal, I would be getting as much extra water, firewood and food to the basement as possible.

If I were out and about when it was announced, i'd try to make for home or as close as I could get to it.

In the best of situations, when it happens, I've just had a dental appointment, clean bill of health from my annual physical, just had a haircut, freshly showered and dressed, all my clothes are freshly folded and stacked out of the dryer, the dishwasher just finished running, just bought a months green veggies and topped off the pantry, both vehicles fully gassed and all the mower jugs filled with high test and the propane stocks of various kinds are all full and I have enough time to fill the tub with fresh water. I'm tuned to the radio and waiting for damage reports….

Anything the opposite of the above can work against me to the extent it isnt where I need it to be and subtracts from my survivability or comfort/safety.

The financial side of it? The actions and counter actions of people, banks and governments are enough to stretch the pain out to an agonizingly long descent into argentina-like chaos. It be more the like frog and boiling water…won't happen, we'd jump out. Instead, we'll be sitting in cold water as it warms and never notice till its too late…well I will, and most folks here will, but the MTV American Idol -numbed types who still think BHO is handsome and cool and can't even balance their checkbooks won't notice a thing, even after its happened. They'll just be screwed.

Lone Kimono · 02-05-2012, 14:16

Great idea for a topic! Outside of the obvious EMP kind of event I've wondered when I would empty the accounts and hit the stores for the last time.

cowboy1964 · 02-05-2012, 17:06

Annualized inflation of 36%?? My trigger would be more like 10%. A one-month spike of 3% or something wouldn't be that worrisome, but a 2% per month for 4 months would. We're talking across-the-board inflation, not energy-only inflation or something.

What does it mean you will be "all in"? You be putting every dollar you make into preps? You will be cashing out your IRA/401k? Selling your house and moving to the mountains?

UneasyRider · 02-05-2012, 17:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by cowboy1964

Annualized inflation of 36%?? My trigger would be more like 10%. A one-month spike of 3% or something wouldn't be that worrisome, but a 2% per month for 4 months would. We're talking across-the-board inflation, not energy-only inflation or something.

What does it mean you will be "all in"? You be putting every dollar you make into preps? You will be cashing out your IRA/401k? Selling your house and moving to the mountains?

All in for me is if I think that we need to have it we buy it.

Glocktastic · 02-05-2012, 18:35

I agree with Tango Foxtrot that there are alarm bells every day.

Any time the Dow drops 500+, any money in the bank comes out and I top off supplies as best as I'm able.

wildcat455 · 02-05-2012, 18:41

UneasyRider, I think by your definition, if I understand it correctly, I am already "All In" .

Every bit of money I make above my living expenses goes to Preps right now. (I DO allow myself a Redbox movie once a week...) I may also be a little bit behind most here in financial status and preps, so I can't really afford to wait until the 11th hour.

For me, it is "Imminent" right now. This is already a bullet we cannot dodge. It IS going to happen. The "When" doesn't matter, if you think about it... Unless of course you LIKE (or can afford) playing Russian Roulette.

By my definition, the LAST STAGE of prep for me comes when I see or feel it is UNSAFE (As in "Fear for my life".) for me to continue working. At that point, ready or not, I request a leave of absence, go home, and hunker down!

God help us all WHEN it comes to that.

I do not have any investments to cash in. Already done.
I do not have any large sums of cash in my pillowcase. Already spent. (On preps)
I have no "Wealth" to protect with Precious Metal.

Because of what I see coming, I have accepted the fact that God willing, I will work until the day I die. (No retirement.)

UneasyRider · 02-05-2012, 18:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by wildcat455

UneasyRider, I think by your definition, if I understand it correctly, I am already "All In" .

Every bit of money I make above my living expenses goes to Preps right now. (I DO allow myself a Redbox movie once a week...) I may also be a little bit behind most here in financial status and preps, so I can't really afford to wait until the 11th hour.

For me, it is "Imminent" right now. This is already a bullet we cannot dodge. It IS going to happen. The "When" doesn't matter, if you think about it... Unless of course you LIKE (or can afford) playing Russian Roulette.

By my definition, the LAST STAGE of prep for me comes when I see or feel it is UNSAFE (As in "Fear for my life".) for me to continue working. At that point, ready or not, I request a leave of absence, go home, and hunker down!

God help us all WHEN it comes to that.

I do not have any investments to cash in. Already done.
I do not have any large sums of cash in my pillowcase. Already spent. (On preps)
I have no "Wealth" to protect with Precious Metal.

Because of what I see coming, I have accepted the fact that God willing, I will work until the day I die. (No retirement.)

I am on the same page with the exception that my wife has a nice government retirement and 403B plan which I personally think will be worthless when the day comes.

You can see from the employment charts that we have not created a job in this country for more than a decade and that just won't fly.

TangoFoxtrot · 02-05-2012, 22:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glocktastic

I agree with Tango Foxtrot that there are alarm bells every day.

Any time the Dow drops 500+, any money in the bank comes out and I top off supplies as best as I'm able.

I already did! I withdrew all my cash out of the bank (savings) and put it in a safe place ( I distrust banks) I don't care about accumulating interest on it, I have other interest bearing accounts and stocks for retirement. My supplies are maxed out for the amount of storage I have. I just have to rotate when posssible. So all I have to do is sit back and enjoy life. I don't constantly dwell on this. Life is too short.

Dexters · 02-06-2012, 05:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by UneasyRider

My economic indicators that I watch for are:

1) Inflation rate.
2) GDP
3) Yearly budget deficit.
4) How much money we are printing.
5) Employment.

Excellent post and topic.

I'd suggest you add a deflation trigger also - like the Russell 2000 index.

I think deflation will happen before inflation.

The key point is that money is being destroyed. Look at Greece and other debtor countries - those bonds are money to the people who hold the bond. When Greece defaults or pays less than market rate interest on a debt deal - money is destroyed - poof! That slows down economic activity because the bond and the interest has disappeared.

Although central banks are printing money, they can not create it fast enough for all that is being destroyed by defaults and slower economic activity.

**kirgi08** · 02-06-2012, 09:11

When the EBT cards stop working.'08.

wildcat455 · 02-06-2012, 10:24

For some weird reason, I think they will actually stop taking cash before they stop taking EBT. LMAO!

arclight610 · 02-06-2012, 10:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by wildcat455

UneasyRider, I think by your definition, if I understand it correctly, I am already "All In" .

Every bit of money I make above my living expenses goes to Preps right now. (I DO allow myself a Redbox movie once a week...) I may also be a little bit behind most here in financial status and preps, so I can't really afford to wait until the 11th hour.

For me, it is "Imminent" right now. This is already a bullet we cannot dodge. It IS going to happen. The "When" doesn't matter, if you think about it... Unless of course you LIKE (or can afford) playing Russian Roulette.

By my definition, the LAST STAGE of prep for me comes when I see or feel it is UNSAFE (As in "Fear for my life".) for me to continue working. At that point, ready or not, I request a leave of absence, go home, and hunker down!

God help us all WHEN it comes to that.

I do not have any investments to cash in. Already done.
I do not have any large sums of cash in my pillowcase. Already spent. (On preps)
I have no "Wealth" to protect with Precious Metal.

Because of what I see coming, I have accepted the fact that God willing, I will work until the day I die. (No retirement.)

You need to have a little bit of fun too. If the SHTF does happen, you want to be able to look back at good memories.

DoctaGlockta · 02-06-2012, 11:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by kirgi08

When the EBT cards stop working.'08.

This +1

**kirgi08** · 02-06-2012, 11:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by wildcat455

For some weird reason, I think they will actually stop taking cash before they stop taking EBT. LMAO!

It's reality when food stamps don't work.Cash always works.'08.

wildcat455 · 02-06-2012, 20:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by kirgi08

It's reality when food stamps don't work.Cash always works.'08.

It was an attempt at humor. The Gov ensuring the entitlement crowd gets fed.

Guess it wasn't too funny....

I'll stick to my "Day job".

Lone Kimono · 02-06-2012, 23:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by arclight610

You need to have a little bit of fun too. If the SHTF does happen, you want to be able to look back at good memories.

This^^^

As bad as things are we will probably look back on them as the good days.

**kirgi08** · 02-07-2012, 08:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by kirgi08

It's reality when food stamps don't work.Cash always works.'08.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wildcat455

It was an attempt at humor. The Gov ensuring the entitlement crowd gets fed.

Guess it wasn't too funny....

I'll stick to my "Day job".

My above wasn't meant as a slight.It was an observation of the .gov folk bending over backwards ta ensure the support of their voter base.Sometimes I can be a little trite and I do apologize.'08.

wildcat455 · 02-07-2012, 08:43

LOL! It's ok kirgi. I didn't take your comment that way. I have pretty thick skin.

mgentry · 02-07-2012, 09:18

What time span are you prepping for? six months? a year? or more? Do you have seeds for your future food? Do you plan to raise chickens or rabbits or goats or all three? Or are you just storing food? What kind of water storage? What kind of planning are you doing? I would be very interested in your thoughts and plans.

UneasyRider · 02-07-2012, 09:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgentry

What time span are you prepping for? six months? a year? or more? Do you have seeds for your future food? Do you plan to raise chickens or rabbits or goats or all three? Or are you just storing food? What kind of water storage? What kind of planning are you doing? I would be very interested in your thoughts and plans.

Personally I plan to survive the change in currency from the old dollar to the new one. I think that 3 years of food will cover it nicely with increases in security for both our home and ourselves like kick proof doors and windows as well as pick proof locks. And of course some financial preps.

I have no doubt that America will be back on it's feet in short order (a year or two) as to food distribution and production or importation of consumer goods.

I look at it in terms of how will the year or two of really tough times go for me and mine. I would like a soft landing if possible for my family, it no longer seems possible for the country... I think we will have a bumpy ride and a hard stop, then start moving forward again. That is the history of nations.