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Old 05-08-2012, 22:18   #26
Glotin
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Originally Posted by arclight610 View Post
What do you base your prediction off of?
The past few hundred years. The late 20's and early 30's compared to where we are now and the systemic structures in place to prevent that from happening.

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Originally Posted by Glocksanity View Post
Just tell me a better place to put my money for the next ten years then. Cuz the last ten have been fantastic!

Gold and silver have absolutely no counter party risk. In a world where crooks are running the paper game, I'll take that.
Based on current valuations, I'd suggest real estate and the stock market. Natural gas and associated businesses are very attractive right now.

If there is no contract, there is no counter party risk. There are plenty of other risks and costs associated with PMs though.

Clearly the past 10 years have heavily influenced your opinions. It's interesting to me that you can give so much weight to the last 10 years while totally discounting the previous 200 or so.

I'm not sure if you were around, but the 1970's were very similar to the 2000's. The charts look almost identical. From 1972-1979 the CAGR of Large Cap stocks was 5.1%. Commodities (gold) returned an impressive 22.1%. Surely people were boasting about how much they made in gold and, having been scared out of the stock market, continued to buy more. Unfortunately they would have missed the incredible bull markets of the 80's and 90's, while watching gold prices fall back to where they were before the 70's bubble.

Here is the take of some old man from Omaha:
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/...holder-letter/

Scroll down to the current valuation of gold and what you could buy instead (All 400 Million acres of cropland in the US, 16 Exxon Mobiles and have $1 Trillion left over)
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Old 05-09-2012, 07:55   #27
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Just tell me a better place to put my money for the next ten years then. Cuz the last ten have been fantastic!

Gold and silver have absolutely no counter party risk. In a world where crooks are running the paper game, I'll take that.
The last 10 years WERE great. I bought three gold eagles in 2002 and 2003 when it was under $320 an ounce. Sold two of them in 2008 for a hair over $1000 when gold spiked at $ 1084 and started going down, then the 2008 crash happend and gold spiked again and I so sold the last ounce of about $1700.

That is how I profited with gold. Pure luck buying low and selling high. However, I would have made money buying Apple Stocks around the same time, because 10 years ago Apple sucked and the stock were cheap and now look at them.

The problem people are having is everyone is screaming "Buy Gold" and the ones who are making money with it are the ones selling it. How do you expect to turn a profit when you are buying ANYTHING high and selling low. Those who bought gold at +$1700 are finding that out the hard way right now.

When the hype dies, eventually the price has to come down to normal market levels. That is with Housing, stocks, oil, and even gold.
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Old 05-09-2012, 07:58   #28
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Well they always tell you about the economies of scale too. Only when you reach the masters level do you learn the rule of dis-economies of scale. (larger scale of production leads to an Increase in product price)
Economy of scale is about costs, not prices. Those two things are not the same.

EDITED TO ADD: that is not to say that diseconomy of scale doesn't exist. It does, and it can add to per-unit costs when an organization gets large enough. I was trying to be precise. Too many people don't know the difference between prices and costs.

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Old 05-09-2012, 08:07   #29
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Silver $28.86. Buying opportunity!
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Old 05-09-2012, 08:19   #30
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U guyzez are so smart. So I should buy now because it went up. Wow. I got my behind handed to me in 2000 doing that with tech stocks and in 07 with real estate. But THIS time is different, right?

Avoid those crappy investments. No one will ever buy them again. I'm writing a book about all this good advice.
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Old 05-09-2012, 08:30   #31
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I gathered up my scrap gold and coins when it was a hair over $1700 and sold it all. I'm sitting on the proceeds to add to my silver when it gets down to my buy point.

Anyone crazy enough to still be in stocks or mutuals will deserve what happens. PM's are the safest long-term investment. With the rampant corruption in all the banking houses, physical PM's are a safety net you can count on. I prefer silver because it allows smaller increments of value, vital if we move into a barter economy.

Actually, there is already a sizeable underground barter economy right now, if you know where to look

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Old 05-09-2012, 08:38   #32
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You can't substain ... $1,500 an ounce for gold forever.
Sure you can. Just like $3 gas can be sustained forever. It ain't ever going back to $1.50 again. Gold is priced in dollars, just like gas is. The dollar is going to continue to fall, not magically rise. Been to the grocery store lately?

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Old 05-09-2012, 08:40   #33
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Anyone crazy enough to still be in stocks or mutuals will deserve what happens.
Yeah, my Apple stock has doubled in a year. What a disaster!

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Old 05-09-2012, 08:44   #34
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Here is what Warren Buffet thinks of gold. Can't really argue with one of the richest men in the world.

Quote:
"The problem with commodities is that you are betting on what someone else would pay for them in six months. The commodity itself isn’t going to do anything for you….it is an entirely different game to buy a lump of something and hope that somebody else pays you more for that lump two years from now than it is to buy something that you expect to produce income for you over time."

"Gold is a way of going long on fear, and it has been a pretty good way of going long on fear from time to time. But you really have to hope people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now. And if they become more afraid you make money, if they become less afraid you lose money, but the gold itself doesn’t produce anything."

"I will say this about gold. If you took all the gold in the world, it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side…Now for that same cube of gold, it would be worth at today’s market prices about $7 trillion dollars – that’s probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States…For $7 trillion dollars…you could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven Exxon Mobils, and you could have a trillion dollars of walking-around money…And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, and you know me touching it and fondling it occasionally…Call me crazy, but I’ll take the farmland and the Exxon Mobils."

"[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."
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Old 05-09-2012, 08:51   #35
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Anyone crazy enough to still be in stocks or mutuals will deserve what happens. PM's are the safest long-term investment.
History disagrees with you. Even taking into account the Great Depression, the long-term performance of stock markets beats that of gold.

And more to the point:

Quote:
I prefer silver because it allows smaller increments of value, vital if we move into a barter economy.
How much of your time, money, and effort are you going to spend preparing for something that may never happen?

In other words, are you going to play the game that we have now, or are you going to spend all of your time preparing for the day when the rules change, even though that day might never happen?
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Old 05-09-2012, 08:54   #36
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Eventually the gold bubble had to burst. The events of the 2008 collapse and the Obama presidency just prolonged it a few years.

Just like housing prices, its got to come down to normal levels. You can't substain over a half a million dollar average homes prices and plus $1,500 an ounce for gold forever.
BB - are you calling the bubble here and now? Let me know because I'd like to bookmark this.

Nothing goes straight up (though gold has done a pretty remarkable job of it so far). This is just a correction in the bull market. Buying opportunity.

Interestingly enough, Marc Faber just called this.
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Old 05-09-2012, 08:56   #37
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Here is what Warren Buffet thinks of gold. Can't really argue with one of the richest men in the world.
Warren Buffett's advice is always peculiarly. One day he says silver is a horrible investment, then he buys 120 mil ounces. It's almost like he's trying to shake people out, so he can sweep in on the cheap to get it.

Maybe he's just a little butthurt at PM's in general. He bought that 120 million oz of silver at $5 an oz, it went up to $7 and he thought it was a bad investment so he dumped it. It later shot up to $45 oz as we all know.
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Old 05-09-2012, 08:57   #38
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While Buffet makes a good point, you have to consider that the size and breadth of his investments give him good leverage with respect to safety versus earnings. Economies of scale are at work here.

As I said before, PM's preserve wealth, they do not increase it. I am approaching 70 yrs so have to rely on what money I already have, and speculation in the markets would be foolish in my situation. If you are a 30-something, have a good career and are well grounded financially, then Buffet's rule may work for you.

Metals are about preservation of capital, not growth.

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Old 05-09-2012, 09:45   #39
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Originally Posted by arclight610 View Post
Warren Buffett's advice is always peculiarly. One day he says silver is a horrible investment, then he buys 120 mil ounces. It's almost like he's trying to shake people out, so he can sweep in on the cheap to get it.

Maybe he's just a little butthurt at PM's in general. He bought that 120 million oz of silver at $5 an oz, it went up to $7 and he thought it was a bad investment so he dumped it. It later shot up to $45 oz as we all know.
Buffett is out for Buffett. He doesn't play with the same ground rules as the rest of us.
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Old 05-09-2012, 09:54   #40
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I gathered up my scrap gold and coins when it was a hair over $1700 and sold it all. I'm sitting on the proceeds to add to my silver when it gets down to my buy point.

Anyone crazy enough to still be in stocks or mutuals will deserve what happens. PM's are the safest long-term investment. With the rampant corruption in all the banking houses, physical PM's are a safety net you can count on. I prefer silver because it allows smaller increments of value, vital if we move into a barter economy.

Actually, there is already a sizeable underground barter economy right now, if you know where to look

Ronaldo - oro y plata es el ultimo dinero
If we move to a barter economy Gold and Silver will have little value. What will have value is clean water, food, gas, ice, T-paper, alcohol, cigarettes guns and ammo. You can not eat, drink, or fuel a generator on gold or silver. Look at any major disaster these are the items people will need to survive.
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Old 05-09-2012, 09:59   #41
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If we move to a barter economy Gold and Silver will have little value. What will have value is clean water, food, gas, ice, T-paper, alcohol, cigarettes guns and ammo. You can not eat, drink, or fuel a generator on gold or silver. Look at any major disaster these are the items people will need to survive.
I don't think we'll have to worry about going to a barter economy any time soon. However, hyperinflation is a real concern.

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Old 05-09-2012, 11:12   #42
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When the hype dies, eventually the price has to come down to normal market levels. That is with Housing, stocks, oil, and even gold.
Very true. The principal difference being that gold has little to no utility. At least oil is used for something. Real Estate and companies, of course, can generate positive cash flow while you wait for another cycle. Good companies produce even in the bad times. Gold is a shiny rock, and one oz is no different from the other; they have the same valuation.

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Anyone crazy enough to still be in stocks or mutuals will deserve what happens. PM's are the safest long-term investment. With the rampant corruption in all the banking houses, physical PM's are a safety net you can count on. I prefer silver because it allows smaller increments of value, vital if we move into a barter economy.
See my comment re. the 1970's.

In 1979 BusinessWeek published a cover story titled "The Death of Equities". The article, like you, pointed out that you'd have to be crazy to invest in equities. This, of course, was on the eve of probably the greatest bull market in history. Oops.

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Warren Buffett's advice is always peculiarly. One day he says silver is a horrible investment, then he buys 120 mil ounces. It's almost like he's trying to shake people out, so he can sweep in on the cheap to get it.

Maybe he's just a little butthurt at PM's in general. He bought that 120 million oz of silver at $5 an oz, it went up to $7 and he thought it was a bad investment so he dumped it. It later shot up to $45 oz as we all know.
He bought silver in 1998, when it had an attractive valuation. That's what he does. He buys things for less than they are worth and sells them for more than they are worth. He bought for $5, sold shortly thereafter for $7, and then the price retreated back below $5. He would've had to hold that silver for 12 years before it climbed, very briefly, to $45. His money was employed much more effectively in productive assets over that 12 years, which is one of the reasons he's one of the richest men in the world.

You think he's butt hurt because he made $240 million in a few months?

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I don't think we'll have to worry about going to a barter economy any time soon. However, hyperinflation is a real concern.
Stocks are also a hedge against inflation.
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Old 05-09-2012, 11:20   #43
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"The problem with commodities is that you are betting on what someone else would pay for them in six months. The commodity itself isn’t going to do anything for you….it is an entirely different game to buy a lump of something and hope that somebody else pays you more for that lump two years from now than it is to buy something that you expect to produce income for you over time."

"Gold is a way of going long on fear, and it has been a pretty good way of going long on fear from time to time. But you really have to hope people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now. And if they become more afraid you make money, if they become less afraid you lose money, but the gold itself doesn’t produce anything."

"I will say this about gold. If you took all the gold in the world, it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side…Now for that same cube of gold, it would be worth at today’s market prices about $7 trillion dollars – that’s probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States…For $7 trillion dollars…you could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven Exxon Mobils, and you could have a trillion dollars of walking-around money…And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, and you know me touching it and fondling it occasionally…Call me crazy, but I’ll take the farmland and the Exxon Mobils."

"[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."
I don't agree with the part in bold. Gold is used heavily in electronics. I've got a pair of headphones with a gold coated jack. You could also say that it has utility in the fact that it is highly desirable for jewelry. It gives people pleasure to wear, helping to maximize their utility in the same way driving a sports car would give someone pleasure.

From my econ dictionary:

Utility
1. An economic term referring to the total satisfaction received from consuming a good or service.

If people receive satisfaction from owning gold or jewelry made with it, then it does provide utility.
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Old 05-09-2012, 11:25   #44
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I don't agree with the part in bold. Gold is used heavily in electronics. I've got a pair of headphones with a gold coated jack. You could also say that it has utility in the fact that it is highly desirable for jewelry. It gives people pleasure to wear, helping to maximize their utility in the same way driving a sports car would give someone pleasure.

From my econ dictionary:

Utility
1. An economic term referring to the total satisfaction received from consuming a good or service.

If people receive satisfaction from owning gold or jewelry made with it, then it does provide utility.
The utility of gold is minimal. Gold is the most malleable metal. It can be hammered so thin, it becomes translucent. 1 oz of gold can be hammered into a 100 sq ft sheet. What this means is that it doesn't take alot of gold to plate something or make gold foil.
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Old 05-09-2012, 11:54   #45
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The utility of gold is minimal. Gold is the most malleable metal. It can be hammered so thin, it becomes translucent. 1 oz of gold can be hammered into a 100 sq ft sheet. What this means is that it doesn't take alot of gold to plate something or make gold foil.
I know this and agree, but wouldn't you also agree that most married women gain more utility or satisfaction from a gold wedding ring than they would from a silver one? I know it is that way because of societal norms, but it holds true none the less.
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Old 05-09-2012, 12:18   #46
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The last 10 years WERE great. I bought three gold eagles in 2002 and 2003 when it was under $320 an ounce. Sold two of them in 2008 for a hair over $1000 when gold spiked at $ 1084 and started going down, then the 2008 crash happend and gold spiked again and I so sold the last ounce of about $1700.

That is how I profited with gold. Pure luck buying low and selling high. However, I would have made money buying Apple Stocks around the same time, because 10 years ago Apple sucked and the stock were cheap and now look at them.

The problem people are having is everyone is screaming "Buy Gold" and the ones who are making money with it are the ones selling it. How do you expect to turn a profit when you are buying ANYTHING high and selling low. Those who bought gold at +$1700 are finding that out the hard way right now.
Here's the rub. What is the next Apple stock? Anyone can say they would have made more money with Apple looking at the past, but going forward from today, tell me what one stock is going to outperform gold? Just one stock. Just give me the one stock that will outperform gold over the next ten years. I mean, it's easy right? Just like Apple. So tell, me. What is that stock?

Quote:
When the hype dies, eventually the price has to come down to normal market levels. That is with Housing, stocks, oil, and even gold.
What you think is hype, I think is a paradigm shift in the world's reserve currency from US Dollars to gold. Once the world's Central Banks decide that the US dollar is no longer wanted as the world's reserve currency, a substitute needs to be found. Yep, back to gold. And that will cause gold to skyrocket. You obviously don't understand or see or think that will happen, but the writing is on the wall.
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Old 05-09-2012, 12:20   #47
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Here's the rub. What is the next Apple stock? Anyone can say they would have made more money with Apple looking at the past, but going forward from today, tell me what one stock is going to outperform gold? Just one stock. Just give me the one stock that will outperform gold over the next ten years. I mean, it's easy right? Just like Apple. So tell, me. What is that stock?
You have it entirely wrong. Picking one stock is insanely difficult. But that's not the point.

The point is that you don't HAVE to pick one stock. On average, the performance of the entire market will beat gold.
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Old 05-09-2012, 12:25   #48
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Here is what Warren Buffet thinks of gold. Can't really argue with one of the richest men in the world.
Actually you can. Buffet is clueless when it comes to gold. He has a vested interest in bashing gold as he benefits from our current printing to infinity fiat system.

He has done extremely well for some year, but the last ten his stock has tanked.
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Old 05-09-2012, 12:32   #49
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You have it entirely wrong. Picking one stock is insanely difficult. But that's not the point.

The point is that you don't HAVE to pick one stock. On average, the performance of the entire market will beat gold.
Stop poking the inmates.



It's like those rubes on the radio that talk about the "Custom suit" comparison. If you bought a custom suit in 1920, it would cost you about an ounce of gold. If you bought one today, it would cost around an ounce of gold. Ergo, Gold is a great investment because it holds value.

Of course, if you invested in the S&P500 back then. . . your gold would need to be worth $67,000 per ounce to even start to compete, and you could buy 40-50 suits.
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Old 05-09-2012, 12:34   #50
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Actually you can. Buffet is clueless when it comes to gold. He has a vested interest in bashing gold as he benefits from our current printing to infinity fiat system.

He has done extremely well for some year, but the last ten his stock has tanked.
Tanked???

Not a Buffett fan by any means, but 10 years ago, his stock was worth HALF of what it is today.

From my estimation, that's a double. But I could be wrong.
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