Home Forums Classifieds Blogs Today's Posts Search Social Groups



  
SIGN-UP
Notices

Glock Talk
Welcome To The Glock Talk Forums.

 
  
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-18-2012, 06:24   #101
certifiedfunds
Platinum Membership
Tewwowist
 
certifiedfunds's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Caught in the Middle
Posts: 41,604


Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
Nobody is saying gold will do better forever. In the '80s and '90s, stocks were the place to be. Since 2000, gold is, and IMHO that won't change for the next 5+ years.

Gold fell in 1980 because Volcker put a lid on the money supply and interest rates went up to 15%+. What would those rates to to our servicing our $15 trillion debt?
Asia, food, commodities up. US relative decline.
__________________
Im for law and order, the way that it should be. This songs about the night they spent protecting you from me. - Waylon Jennings
certifiedfunds is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 08:36   #102
Paul7
New Guy
 
Paul7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: East of Eden
Posts: 13,596
Quote:
Originally Posted by certifiedfunds View Post
First, we don't have to pay it off. It is easily serviced.
It's taking something like 20% of our tax receipts to service it, what will it be when it doubles and/or interest rates go up? There is an economic theory that says the debt itself retards economic growth.

Quote:
Secondly, paying it off is very simple and can be done in one generation with cuts and growth.

The problem is, no one is willing to cut and the cards are being stacked against the kind of robust growth needed due to taxes and spending.
Which means continuing devaluation. This is why we are doomed, McCain got the same percentage of the white vote as Reagan did, but in 1980 the white percentage was 88%, now it is 74% and dropping. Every year 600,000 more children of illegal aliens reach voting age. Not exactly Ron Paul supporters.

BTW, I am hispanic.

Boy this thread sure got quiet with gold going up the last two days.
__________________
I dont believe that people should be able to own guns. Obama to John R. Lott Jr. in a private conversation at the University of Chicago.

Last edited by Paul7; 05-18-2012 at 08:37..
Paul7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 10:05   #103
Dragline
Senior Member
 
Dragline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Coastal SC
Posts: 4,396
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
Boy this thread sure got quiet with gold going up the last two days.
There has been a PM rally in the last couple of days but gold seems to be seeing resistance at the psychological $1,600.00price.

It got close earlier this morning then backed off again most recently.
__________________
Birds and Alligators

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.
Dragline is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 10:52   #104
Glotin
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 799
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
Gold has beaten the old man from Omaha 9 of the last 10 years. Are you smarter than him? He's anti-gold (unlike his father) because he's so in the tank for Obama. People getting into PMs would be an indication the economy isn't right.

I have yet to have it explained to me how we pay off $15 trillion ($25 trillion in 10 years) in debt other than default or continued currency debasement.
And he has crushed gold over every other timeframe available... what's your point?

Am I smarter than him? Maybe. Am I as good an investor as he is? No. Are you?

He's anti-gold because it is overpriced and for no other reason. That's what he does. He buys things for less than they are worth and sells them for more than they are worth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by certifiedfunds View Post
For the gold haters and the people who are so sure they've called "the bubble":

Can you explain to us all why the gold bull market started in 2001, long before the collapse of 08?
Come on, you know the answer to this... That's when the tech bubble burst.. the 9/11 and ensuing wars, etc.

And for the record, I'm not "sure" I've called the bubble. Gold is one of those trains, like Facebook for instance, that I don't believe in. Doesn't mean I'm going to step in front of it. I just think anyone who buys gold at this price is crazy. Anyone who buys and hoards large quantities of physical gold is even more so. To denounce productive assets and advocate investing in nothing but gold is madness.

That being said, this sure looks like a top to me:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=G...rce=undefined;
__________________
"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.
Glotin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 11:06   #105
Paul7
New Guy
 
Paul7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: East of Eden
Posts: 13,596
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glotin View Post
And he has crushed gold over every other timeframe available... what's your point?
My point is I'm talking about THIS timeframe.

Quote:
Am I smarter than him? Maybe. Am I as good an investor as he is? No. Are you?
No, which is why I have very little in the stock market. We are still in a long-term equity bear-market and a long-term PM bull market. Fight the trends if you want.....

Quote:
He's anti-gold because it is overpriced and for no other reason. That's what he does. He buys things for less than they are worth and sells them for more than they are worth.
And yet gold has beaten him the last decade. He seems embarrassed about that.



Quote:
And for the record, I'm not "sure" I've called the bubble.
The bubble will come when it rises vertically and everybody is buying it. Less than 2% of Americans do now.

Quote:
Gold is one of those trains, like Facebook for instance, that I don't believe in. Doesn't mean I'm going to step in front of it. I just think anyone who buys gold at this price is crazy.
They said the same thing when gold was $500, $1,000, $1,400........

Quote:
Anyone who buys and hoards large quantities of physical gold is even more so. To denounce productive assets and advocate investing in nothing but gold is madness.
Madness is being in the stock market heavily with the world's current economic problems, or having much faith in fiat money which has lost 95% of it's value the last century.

Quote:
That being said, this sure looks like a top to me:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=G...rce=undefined;
It looks little different than the 2008 correction, when you were probably also saying the 'bubble' was over:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=G...rce=undefined;

Maybe you can explain to me how we deal with a $15 trillion debt (on it's way to $25 trillion) other than default or currency debasement?
__________________
I dont believe that people should be able to own guns. Obama to John R. Lott Jr. in a private conversation at the University of Chicago.

Last edited by Paul7; 05-18-2012 at 11:09..
Paul7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 13:56   #106
JohnBT
NRA Patron
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Richmond, Virginia
Posts: 6,358
I'm glad I didn't buy gold when it was $1900/oz. less than one year ago.

Could have been a good time to sell some though.

I'm glad I didn't buy gold when it was $1725/oz. six months ago.

Still might be a good time to sell some. What did it close at today, $1590?
JohnBT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 14:05   #107
robertoh
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Ohio
Posts: 2,857
Gold and Silver done a lot better than FaceBook today. Maybe Bono who bought heavily into FaceBook took what is called on WS,a bath.
robertoh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 14:09   #108
Dragline
Senior Member
 
Dragline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Coastal SC
Posts: 4,396
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnBT View Post
What did it close at today, $1590?
About $1,592 I think. It flirted briefly with reaching $1,600 but couldn't quite manage that.
__________________
Birds and Alligators

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.
Dragline is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 17:10   #109
Glotin
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 799
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
My point is I'm talking about THIS timeframe.
So you're only willing to talk about the single arbitrary timeframe that fits your thesis...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
And yet gold has beaten him the last decade. He seems embarrassed about that.
Beaten him based on which metric? How much revenue has gold produced over the past decade? How much revenue will gold produce over the next decade vs his holdings? How liquid is gold vs his holdings? If he were to sell all of his productive assets and buy gold with it, what would his transaction costs be? Transportation costs? Housing and protecting all that gold?

Why would he be embarrassed about it anyway?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
The bubble will come when it rises vertically and everybody is buying it. Less than 2% of Americans do now.
Says who? A lot more Americans bought gold in 1980 than do today?

The Furball Forum

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
Madness is being in the stock market heavily with the world's current economic problems, or having much faith in fiat money which has lost 95% of it's value the last century.
I disagree with you on the first point. The sky is not falling.

I don't have much "faith" in fiat money, which doesn't have much to do with owning companies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
It looks little different than the 2008 correction, when you were probably also saying the 'bubble' was over

Maybe you can explain to me how we deal with a $15 trillion debt (on it's way to $25 trillion) other than default or currency debasement?
Nope, wasn't saying anything about it in '08 actually.

How we deal with $15 Trillion in debt? Probably the same way we did after WWII, when the debt was much higher than it is now.

I hope we drastically curtail spending, starting with entitlements.

Currency debasement is/has been happening.. that doesn't really affect my portfolio in anything other than nominal terms, just like it will affect gold in nominal terms.

I don't think the US is going to collapse. If it does, a pile of shiny rocks isn't going to get me any further than a bunch of useless paper. I'd much rather have water, food, guns and ammo in that highly unlikely scenario.


Quote:
Originally Posted by robertoh View Post
Gold and Silver done a lot better than FaceBook today. Maybe Bono who bought heavily into FaceBook took what is called on WS,a bath.
Uh, what? The net worth of Bono's firm grew by about $1.4 Billion today. I think you've got the wrong definition of "taking a bath".
__________________
"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.
Glotin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 17:58   #110
Paul7
New Guy
 
Paul7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: East of Eden
Posts: 13,596
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glotin View Post
So you're only willing to talk about the single arbitrary timeframe that fits your thesis...
Yes, the one we're in is the one I care most about. I admit the 80's and 90's were the time to be in equities, not PMs. At some point they may be again. Feel better?

Quote:
Beaten him based on which metric?
Percentage return.

Quote:
How much revenue has gold produced over the past decade? How much revenue will gold produce over the next decade vs his holdings? How liquid is gold vs his holdings?
Very.

Quote:
If he were to sell all of his productive assets and buy gold with it, what would his transaction costs be? Transportation costs? Housing and protecting all that gold?

Why would he be embarrassed about it anyway?
None of your questions change this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/financ...192100100.html

Quote:
I disagree with you on the first point. The sky is not falling.
It most certainly is falling in Europe, and we aren't that far behind them. You seem to have the classic bias for normal.

Quote:
I don't have much "faith" in fiat money,
You seem to have more faith in fiat than gold. Gold has been money for 5,000 years, the fiat experiment is relatively recent, and has often ended badly.

Quote:
which doesn't have much to do with owning companies.
Why would I want to own companies during an equities bear market? How has that worked out the last decade?

Quote:
How we deal with $15 Trillion in debt? Probably the same way we did after WWII, when the debt was much higher than it is now.

I hope we drastically curtail spending, starting with entitlements.
Don't hold your breath. If anyone tries it there will be rioting in the streets, a la Greece.

Quote:
Currency debasement is/has been happening.. that doesn't really affect my portfolio in anything other than nominal terms, just like it will affect gold in nominal terms.
A twenty dollar bill a century ago would be worth .50 today, a twenty dollar gold piece would be worth $1,600. I don't see that trend changing soon.

Quote:
I don't think the US is going to collapse. If it does, a pile of shiny rocks isn't going to get me any further than a bunch of useless paper.
The shiny rocks will be worth something, the paper may be worth zero. Do you really not see you would have been better off with gold in recent Zimbabwe or 1930's Germany?

Quote:
I'd much rather have water, food, guns and ammo in that highly unlikely scenario.
I have both.
__________________
I dont believe that people should be able to own guns. Obama to John R. Lott Jr. in a private conversation at the University of Chicago.

Last edited by Paul7; 05-18-2012 at 18:02..
Paul7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 19:15   #111
07 LMB Z06
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 467
Quote:
Originally Posted by robertoh View Post
Gold and Silver done a lot better than FaceBook today. Maybe Bono who bought heavily into FaceBook took what is called on WS,a bath.
I think not. CNBC was talking about it today. Bono bought ~2-3% for $90 million. His shares, at FB's current valuation, are worth north of $1 billion. Bono hit a grand slam.
07 LMB Z06 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 22:52   #112
Glocksanity
Senior Member
 
Glocksanity's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Los Angeles, Man, Los Angeles
Posts: 2,103
As soon as Saudi Arabia says they no longer require US Dollars for oil, the game is over. China, Russia, Germany, India and the oil rich Arabs will create currencies backed by gold for settlements in the international oil trade. That is the end game. The US Dollar will be on the outside looking in. Gold will get repriced to about $50,000 and those without it will suffer greatly.
__________________
G21~G26~G30~G34

Sic semper evello mortem Tyrannis!
Glocksanity is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 22:55   #113
certifiedfunds
Platinum Membership
Tewwowist
 
certifiedfunds's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Caught in the Middle
Posts: 41,604


Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
It's taking something like 20% of our tax receipts to service it, what will it be when it doubles and/or interest rates go up? There is an economic theory that says the debt itself retards economic growth.



Which means continuing devaluation. This is why we are doomed, McCain got the same percentage of the white vote as Reagan did, but in 1980 the white percentage was 88%, now it is 74% and dropping. Every year 600,000 more children of illegal aliens reach voting age. Not exactly Ron Paul supporters.

BTW, I am hispanic.

Boy this thread sure got quiet with gold going up the last two days.
I agree with all of that. My point is that the debt itself isn't an insurmountable problem. The trajectory is the problem.
__________________
Im for law and order, the way that it should be. This songs about the night they spent protecting you from me. - Waylon Jennings
certifiedfunds is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 06:19   #114
JohnBT
NRA Patron
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Richmond, Virginia
Posts: 6,358
Gold at $50,000/oz? WOW. Better get me some more on Monday.

"done a lot better than FaceBook today"

It's obvious to me that the FB supporters must have been going to their broker's site and clicking the Like button instead of the Buy button.

John
JohnBT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 06:30   #115
certifiedfunds
Platinum Membership
Tewwowist
 
certifiedfunds's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Caught in the Middle
Posts: 41,604


Quote:
Originally Posted by Glotin View Post

How we deal with $15 Trillion in debt? Probably the same way we did after WWII, when the debt was much higher than it is now.
You mean robust post-war growth? Do you see the conditions necessary for that scenario?
__________________
Im for law and order, the way that it should be. This songs about the night they spent protecting you from me. - Waylon Jennings
certifiedfunds is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 06:49   #116
Paul7
New Guy
 
Paul7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: East of Eden
Posts: 13,596
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glocksanity View Post
As soon as Saudi Arabia says they no longer require US Dollars for oil, the game is over. China, Russia, Germany, India and the oil rich Arabs will create currencies backed by gold for settlements in the international oil trade. That is the end game. The US Dollar will be on the outside looking in. Gold will get repriced to about $50,000 and those without it will suffer greatly.
On the bright side, it will make it easy to pay off your mortgage.
__________________
I dont believe that people should be able to own guns. Obama to John R. Lott Jr. in a private conversation at the University of Chicago.
Paul7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 06:57   #117
M2 Carbine
Senior Member
 
M2 Carbine's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Texas
Posts: 29,279
Silver is back up to about $29 this morning.
Too bad, I was going to buy a bunch of American Silver Eagles if silver hit $26.


I'm not really a big fan of gold and silver but I figure in a few years the dollar bill will only be good for lighting the fireplace.

Some of you, like me, are old enough to remember the news reel movie of the German woman pushing a wheel barrel of German money into the store to buy a loaf of bread.
M2 Carbine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 07:38   #118
Atlas
transmogrifier
 
Atlas's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: north of the equator
Posts: 14,864
Quote:
Originally Posted by M2 Carbine View Post
..
Some of you, like me, are old enough to remember the news reel movie of the German woman pushing a wheel barrel of German money into the store to buy a loaf of bread.
Yeah but the experts here at GT have declared that can never happen in the U.S.
__________________
June 28, 2012: the day the American republic died.

Uncontrolled, unaccountable government spending + Graduated income-tax = SLAVERY

Last edited by Atlas; 05-19-2012 at 07:42..
Atlas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 08:38   #119
Dragline
Senior Member
 
Dragline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Coastal SC
Posts: 4,396
Quote:
Originally Posted by M2 Carbine View Post
Silver is back up to about $29 this morning.
Too bad, I was going to buy a bunch of American Silver Eagles if silver hit $26.
It's still probably not a bad buy at $29 if you can get some for only a couple bucks over spot.

$10 face value rolls of 1964 JFK halves can be a good buy as well. These 90% silver coins are readily available and instantly recognized as regular legal tender US currency.
Coin shops often have them for sale at relatively bargain prices since coins like these are commonly brought in by people who wish to cash them in. The coin dealers will often be happy to turn these around for a quick few dollars profit.
__________________
Birds and Alligators

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.
Dragline is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2012, 00:57   #120
Glotin
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 799
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
Percentage return.
Percentage return on a nominal price basis, perhaps. If you factor in revenue you get a much different picture.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
Very.
We both know that's not true.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
None of your questions change this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/financ...192100100.html
Actually, they do. That analysis factors none of those considerations. That analysis also has a cherry picked time frame.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
It most certainly is falling in Europe, and we aren't that far behind them. You seem to have the classic bias for normal.
If the "classic bias for normal" is believing that the end is not, in fact, nigh, then yes, I have it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
You seem to have more faith in fiat than gold. Gold has been money for 5,000 years, the fiat experiment is relatively recent, and has often ended badly.
No, I have faith in productive assets. Fiat money and gold are not very different. What you don't understand is that regardless of the method of exchange, productive assets will always be valuable. People will always be willing to exchange some of their work, or currency, whatever it may be, for food, shelter, luxuries, etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
Why would I want to own companies during an equities bear market? How has that worked out the last decade?
It's worked out great for me over the last decade.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
A twenty dollar bill a century ago would be worth .50 today, a twenty dollar gold piece would be worth $1,600. I don't see that trend changing soon.
Actually a $20 bill a century ago would be worth, at minimum, $20. You're confusing purchasing power with nominal value.

$20 worth of the S&P 500 purchased a century ago would be worth much more than $1600.

The Dow went from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th century (12369 today). $20 in the Dow would be worth $3484 today, more than doubling the return of gold, without factoring in dividends.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul7 View Post
The shiny rocks will be worth something, the paper may be worth zero. Do you really not see you would have been better off with gold in recent Zimbabwe or 1930's Germany?
The United States is not 1930s Germany or Zimbabwe. That the shiny rocks will be worth something is an assumption that you're making. If society disintegrates to the point you're talking about, shiny rocks probably wont be worth anything, as they have no utility.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glocksanity View Post
As soon as Saudi Arabia says they no longer require US Dollars for oil, the game is over. China, Russia, Germany, India and the oil rich Arabs will create currencies backed by gold for settlements in the international oil trade. That is the end game. The US Dollar will be on the outside looking in. Gold will get repriced to about $50,000 and those without it will suffer greatly.
You are truly living in a fantasy world. I hope it works out for you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Atlas View Post
Yeah but the experts here at GT have declared that can never happen in the U.S.
It's not that it can never happen in the US, but it's much more unlikely. Things are a bit different here and now than they were in post war Germany. Believe it or not, economists today are aware of it as well.
__________________
"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.

Last edited by Glotin; 05-21-2012 at 01:14..
Glotin is offline   Reply With Quote

 
  
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:53.




Homepage
FAQ
Forums
Calendar
Advertise
Gallery
GT Wiki
GT Blogs
Social Groups
Classifieds


Users Currently Online: 1,171
296 Members
875 Guests

Most users ever online: 2,672
Aug 11, 2014 at 2:31