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Old 10-22-2012, 10:45   #1
Kozel
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Is it just me or weather forecasts are ALWAYS wrong?

Is it just me or weather forecasts are ALWAYS wrong?

Seems like EVERY time I scheduled some kind of outdoor activity based on weather forecast for next 24 hours I ended up loosing that day. Weatherman on TV should be moved to cartoon channel so that he entertains more people with all his moving maps, dopplers, shmopplers, satellite pictures and weather stations.

Monday they say that Tuesday is going to be sunny. When it rains all day on Tuesday they say that Wednesday is going to be sunny. Wednesday is same as Tuesday forecast for sunshine moves to Friday.
Even 12 hours forecast is often wrong!

Now. I know that weather is not the same thing as climate but basically same people that cannot predict weather 12 hours in advance tell us that hundred of years from now temperature is going to be one degree warmer and we are going to die from Global Warming, Global Climate Change and/or next Ice Age.
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Old 10-22-2012, 10:55   #2
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Old 10-22-2012, 11:09   #3
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Weather forecasts are ridiculous. I look online at the forecast, then run the "Doppler radar" past few hours... and they don't match. I can see where the rain will end up in the next few hours. Seems like most forecasts are all computer generated, and the computer programs just aren't advanced enough to get it right.

I remember years ago (too many!) watching the weather forecast on TV. The weather man had a felt board with a map of the area, and he would attach by velco clouds and sun where needed. The forecasts seemed much more accurate back then.
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Old 10-22-2012, 11:11   #4
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I wouldn't say always but definitely quite frequently.
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Old 10-22-2012, 11:23   #5
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I dunno. I caught a show on Discovery last night that said the government and corporations controlled the weather. So blame Obama AND Romney!

I only watched about 8 minutes, but they said that cloud seeding was the tip of the iceberg and SUCCESSFUL since the 1960's.
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Old 10-22-2012, 11:31   #6
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You're right.Yesterday they were saying that today it'd be sunny all day with no chance for rain.It has rained twice and have yet to see sun.My job revolves around the weather so I pay attention to what they say,but when I wake in the mornings and look at the radar and what fronts are going where,that's how I procede with the day.
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Old 10-22-2012, 12:12   #7
Caver 60
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Originally Posted by Tvov View Post
Weather forecasts are ridiculous. I look online at the forecast, then run the "Doppler radar" past few hours... and they don't match. I can see where the rain will end up in the next few hours. Seems like most forecasts are all computer generated, and the computer programs just aren't advanced enough to get it right.

I remember years ago (too many!) watching the weather forecast on TV. The weather man had a felt board with a map of the area, and he would attach by velco clouds and sun where needed. The forecasts seemed much more accurate back then.
Right on. There used to be people who were actual weather forecasters. Now days they just go with what the computer forecast predicts.

I also do the 'check the forecast/watch the radar loop' trick.

As a cattle producer, I have found there is another corollary to Murphy's law. "If the weather man says there is a 10 or 20 percent chance of rain, and I have cut hay on the ground to bale tomorrow, there is actually about a 95 percent chance it will rain. But if there is no hay down and we need rain, they can give a 90 percent chance of rain and it won't rain.'

Where else can you get a job where you're wrong 80 percent of the time, and still keep your job?
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Old 10-22-2012, 12:29   #8
CitizenOfDreams
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Where else can you get a job where you're wrong 80 percent of the time, and still keep your job?
Wall Street?
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Old 10-22-2012, 12:41   #9
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I only listen to the Winter Storm Watches/Warnings. Everything else, I rely n radar and sometimes NOAA to give me a general idea.

My friends all get the weather from me. Which isn't to say I've never forecasted a foot of snow and gotten a few inches before...
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Old 10-22-2012, 13:01   #10
devildog2067
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I know that weather is not the same thing as climate but basically same people that cannot predict weather 12 hours in advance tell us that hundred of years from now temperature is going to be one degree warmer
What are my chances of predicting the aggregate outcome of 1,000 coin flips? They're pretty darn good.

What are my chances of predicting the outcome of a single coin flip? They're 50/50 no matter what you do.

Predicting long term trends is often easier, both scientifically and mathematically, than predicting single events in the near term.
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Old 10-22-2012, 13:56   #11
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I expect it depends on where you live. Mine is pretty reliable for a couple of days out. I suspect in parts of Florida for example, "Hot and Sunny with an Afternoon Shower" pretty much works every time.
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Old 10-22-2012, 14:04   #12
Glock_Convert
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Where else can you get a job where you're wrong 80 percent of the time, and still keep your job?
Uh, the Obama cabinet?:D



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Old 10-22-2012, 14:17   #13
hockeyrcks9901
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I expect it depends on where you live. Mine is pretty reliable for a couple of days out. I suspect in parts of Florida for example, "Hot and Sunny with an Afternoon Shower" pretty much works every time.
Pretty close in Florida... I go by the 90-90-50 rule. 90 degrees 90% humidity 50% chance of rain. It works most of the year
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Old 10-22-2012, 14:24   #14
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Originally Posted by devildog2067 View Post
=Predicting long term trends is often easier, both scientifically and mathematically, than predicting single events in the near term.
So, if you cannot predict one event 12 hours in advance then you are much better at predicting trend 100 years from now? Ohhh… it makes sense now! “Scientifically and mathematically” that is.

How do you say “you are full of it” in scientific language?



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Last edited by Kozel; 10-22-2012 at 14:27..
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Old 10-22-2012, 14:31   #15
devildog2067
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So if you cannot predict one event 12 hours in advance then you are much better at predicting trend 100 years from now? Ohhh… it makes sense now! “Scientifically and mathematically” that is.
I gave what I thought was a very easy to understand, concrete example.

Imagine I flip a coin 100 times. It's impossible to predict (better than 50/50) what the outcome of any particular coin toss will be, whether it's the first one or the 100th one.

However, I *can* easily predict that about half of the tosses will come up heads and about half will come up tails.

By analogy (and I understand this isn't an exact analogy) it's difficult to predict the temperature tomorrow. It's essentially impossible to predict the temperature 100 days from now.

However, it's reasonably doable to predict the average temperature for the next 100 days (i.e., "it'll be a mild winter" or "we think this summer will be hotter than usual").

There's a difference between predicting the outcome of a single event or the value of a single data point, and predicting an average or overall trend.

No matter how much you'd like to make fun of it, my statement is both scientifically and mathematically true.
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Old 10-22-2012, 14:31   #16
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How do you say “you are full of it” in scientific language?
"Kozel"
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Old 10-22-2012, 14:33   #17
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Heard someone say if they gave the weatherman a window in his office the forecast would immediately improve, I believe that.
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Old 10-22-2012, 14:40   #18
Kozel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by devildog2067 View Post
I gave what I thought was a very easy to understand, concrete example.

Imagine I flip a coin 100 times. It's impossible to predict (better than 50/50) what the outcome of any particular coin toss will be, whether it's the first one or the 100th one.

However, I *can* easily predict that about half of the tosses will come up heads and about half will come up tails.

By analogy (and I understand this isn't an exact analogy) it's difficult to predict the temperature tomorrow. It's essentially impossible to predict the temperature 100 days from now.

However, it's reasonably doable to predict the average temperature for the next 100 days (i.e., "it'll be a mild winter" or "we think this summer will be hotter than usual").

There's a difference between predicting the outcome of a single event or the value of a single data point, and predicting an average or overall trend.

No matter how much you'd like to make fun of it, my statement is both scientifically and mathematically true.
What are you doing for a living?

You must be a weatherman!

Talk a lot and make absolutely no sense! It is your job!
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Old 10-22-2012, 14:45   #19
devildog2067
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Talk a lot and make absolutely no sense!
I have a feeling most of GT will follow that explanation just fine. Are coin flips too complicated for you to understand?
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Old 10-22-2012, 14:45   #20
inthefrey
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About 3 days is all we'll get till technology improves. Here's what the boys over at the NWS got his year...

LOOK ON PAGE 7 http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...1612_final.pdf
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Old 10-22-2012, 14:50   #21
Kozel
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I have a feeling most of GT will follow that explanation just fine. Are coin flips too complicated for you to understand?
Coin flips by weatherman from Skokie are just as reliable and entertaining as coin flips by weatherman in most parts of the country except Hawaii and Floriduh where coin has “heads” on both sides.

Scientists living in caves under France of all places are the best at flipping coins. They have been flipping billions of coins for many years and they have yet to figure out ….. anything.

Last edited by Kozel; 10-22-2012 at 14:58..
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Old 10-22-2012, 15:04   #22
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Scientists living in caves under France of all places are the best at flipping coins. They have been flipping billions of coins for many years and they have yet to figure out ….. anything.
Irony is arguing that CERN has "yet to figure out anything" on the World Wide Web that was invented at CERN.
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Old 10-22-2012, 15:08   #23
Kozel
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Irony is arguing that CERN has "yet to figure out anything" on the World Wide Web that was invented at CERN.
Are you saying that Al Gore did not invent the inteweb?!?!

Ya all cave dwelling scientists must be smoking some good stuff down there!


Last edited by Kozel; 10-22-2012 at 15:09..
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Old 10-22-2012, 15:09   #24
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Irony is arguing that CERN has "yet to figure out anything" on the World Wide Web that was invented at CERN.
I didn't know Al Gore was employed by CERN...
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Old 10-22-2012, 15:11   #25
Lone Wolf8634
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It's really quite entertaining watching a train wreck in progress.
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