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Old 11-24-2012, 13:02   #126
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Originally Posted by MtBaldy View Post
Once it was proven that planets are as common as dirt I pretty much concluded the probability that we are alone in the universe shrank to near zero. Whether we will ever find each other or not is an entirely different question.
Here is the thing about probability, it has a time component. Your observations only take some of the math into account.



(beware, broad brush ahead because I am not posting 10 pages explaining math)

If something has a 1 in 3 chance of occurring, that means, given a large enough data set, that thing will happen 1 out of three times. It doesnt really say "which" time it will happen. It just sets the chances that it will happen on any given "try."

This issue also falls under that. There is a number (which is debated and set in as a pretty wide range at this point) that states what the odds of life forming are. It is a very large number.

Now, if enough time passes and conditions remain somewhat stable, the math (again, there is a real number of how many *tries* it will take) makes it pretty close to a certainty.

Yes, it would seem the conditions for *tries* exist all over the place....but that is deceptive. This is where we must understand and use math to overcome our observational bias. Yes, the game is being played but what we dont know is/has it been played enough to produce the result we are looking for. Again, some models say "no" some models say "yes." The fact that it has happend tends to suggest "yes." (again)

Let me try this with simple numbers.

If something will probably happen every 1 in 1000 chances, I will need a stable system and hundreds of thousands of chances to really have accurate math(we can extrapolate with fewer chances but...). If you observe "conditions for chances"(not actual chances) all over the place, you may become biased thinking "this 1 thing has to happen all the time" but what if the conditions for a chance only produce an actual chance once a year. (the time factor) So, what you think should happen all the time but in truth doesnt happen very often at all....and then, when it does, is very unlikly to produce the result.

To really sum it up, in a stable system, anything that has a chance of happening, no matter how remote, will happen if given enough chances to happen but have enough chance taken place yet?
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Last edited by Rabbi; 11-24-2012 at 13:03..
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Old 11-24-2012, 13:07   #127
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On a clear, dark night (no moon) when you can see a bazillion stars, there is no way you can look at all of the stars and think our little blue marble is the only place to have life.
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Old 11-24-2012, 13:11   #128
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There are millions of worlds out there with life (actually, probably trillions). Anyone that can't grasp that simply doesn't understand the scope of the universe (both size and time) or is so religiously zealous that they can't have a single intelligent independent thought.
No, you are(could be) wrong and ironically so.

I can build a mathematical model (it has been done many times) that will pass all level of scrutiny that shows it is unlikely.

Math trumps your opinions. There is no need for one to be stupid or religious about it.

Yes, a valid model can also be built within a acceptable range that shows it is likely. (and I lean this way)

The problem with your statement is you use the vastness of the universe to prove a point. You fail to give weight to the complexity of life. Both represent very large numbers in this issue.

To turn your own statement on you, this is exactly what you said "There are millions of parts to life (actually, probably trillions). Anyone that can't grasp that there CANT be life out there, simply doesn't understand the scope of what it takes to make life (both size and time) or is so religiously zealous that they can't have a single intelligent independent thought." Which is also an invalid statement, because it doesnt take into account the math of the complexity of the Universe.

Does this make sense to you now?
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Whenever you get mad as hell about it all, grab your rifle and head outside. If you are the only one there...it's not time yet

I cross my heart and hope not to die. Swallow evil, ride the sky. Lose myself in a crowded room. You fool, you fool, it will be here soon
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Old 11-24-2012, 13:17   #129
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Originally Posted by Steve in PA View Post
On a clear, dark night (no moon) when you can see a bazillion stars, there is no way you can look at all of the stars and think our little blue marble is the only place to have life.
Actually, there are (the number varies) about 10,000 or less stars that can be seen by the naked eye.

As it stands right now, there is up to 1 septillion (10^24) stars in total.
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Whenever you get mad as hell about it all, grab your rifle and head outside. If you are the only one there...it's not time yet

I cross my heart and hope not to die. Swallow evil, ride the sky. Lose myself in a crowded room. You fool, you fool, it will be here soon
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Old 11-24-2012, 13:37   #130
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Of course we are not the only living beings in the universe. Will we someday be able to visit these other places or be visited by them? I think so, and maybe someday be able to receive out of world visitors peacefully.
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Old 11-24-2012, 13:57   #131
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There are too many variables and unknowns at this point to make a reliable prediction and time is one of the variables that man is most uncertain about. Time being in this case how long a civilization is detectable. Hell, we are still debating how long humans have been around, and how long we will continue to be around. Scientists estimate 200,000 years so far for Homo Sapiens and the book claims 6,000. People debate this even though we can accurately date skeletal remains.

Look up the Drake equation. It attempts to explain the possibility of extraterrestrial life and one can see and change the variables used to make such a prediction.

So many theory's.

Wormholes
Multiverses
Parallel universes
Movement through time (Einstein proven)
God

So much to be seen.

Last edited by Minnow; 11-25-2012 at 01:39..
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Old 11-24-2012, 14:07   #132
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I was born with an extraterrestrial, and although my pants fit funny sometimes I am alive.
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Old 11-24-2012, 14:18   #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbi View Post
To really sum it up, in a stable system, anything that has a chance of happening, no matter how remote, will happen if given enough chances to happen but have enough chance taken place yet?
Of course you're right but, as you point out, we know it has happened at least once on a planet orbiting an otherwise unremarkable middle aged star. The fact that we are here means it's very likely others are.
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Old 11-24-2012, 14:20   #134
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Quote:
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The problem with your statement is you use the vastness of the universe to prove a point. You fail to give weight to the complexity of life. Both represent very large numbers in this issue.
Life may be complex and take quite a while to get started but once it does get started the final result is inevitable, given enough time. Life in some form will proliferate. I'm betting that, given several billion years, every place in the universe with climatic conditions able to support water/carbon/nitrogen based life forms will have them.
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Old 11-24-2012, 15:40   #135
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Shape shifting reptilians have been running this planet for a long long time. Their rule is coming to an end.
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Old 11-24-2012, 16:13   #136
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Shape shifting reptilians have been running this planet for a long long time. Their rule is coming to an end.
Yes they have ... and yes it is. -- Soon others will see too!


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Old 11-24-2012, 16:20   #137
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Yes they have ... and yes it is. -- Soon others will see too!

We need fewer Reptilians and more Rowdy Roddy Pipers, that's for sure.
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Old 11-24-2012, 16:35   #138
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Probability...

Given an honest coin and honest flips, twenty-four consecutive "heads" says nothing about the probable result of flip twenty-five.


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Old 11-24-2012, 16:39   #139
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Probability...

Given an honest coin and honest flips, twenty-four consecutive "heads" says nothing about the probable result of flip twenty-five.


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Yes, but the probability of 24 consecutive heads is pretty low.
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Old 11-24-2012, 16:39   #140
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Mankind has to place the blame somewhere.
Ha! That was a great post.
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Old 11-24-2012, 18:20   #141
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Yes, but the probability of 24 consecutive heads is pretty low.
A little under 17 million to 1. Of course, this is simple gamblers math. Drum roll for Rabbi to step in...
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Old 11-24-2012, 18:34   #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by czsmithGT View Post
Yes, but the probability of 24 consecutive heads is pretty low.
Now juxtapose that with something with the odds of 10(-^24) and now you have a situation where two out of thousands of events need to coincide exactly right to move forward. What is happening with the other 34,000 (WAG!) strings, each of which needs to overcome enormous odds to occur?
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Old 11-24-2012, 19:15   #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MtBaldy View Post
Of course you're right but, as you point out, we know it has happened at least once on a planet orbiting an otherwise unremarkable middle aged star. The fact that we are here means it's very likely others are.
Again, I believe that and you believe that but that is not how math works and math doesnt care how we feel.

Just because we are here doesnt necessarily mean it is likely anywhere else. At most it means it is possible.

If something has a 1 in a 1000 chance, it could happen on the very first try. We could be the very first try....that means the *next* occurrence is possibly a long way away.
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In the world to come, each of us will be called to account for all the good things G-d put on earth which we refused to enjoy. ~ The Babylonian Talmud

Whenever you get mad as hell about it all, grab your rifle and head outside. If you are the only one there...it's not time yet

I cross my heart and hope not to die. Swallow evil, ride the sky. Lose myself in a crowded room. You fool, you fool, it will be here soon
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Old 11-24-2012, 19:16   #144
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Quote:
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I wonder what will happen on the day we know for sure.
I would hope it would have some profound impact on the human race. That people would stop and re-evaulate all the senseless BS that occupy most peoples lives.

But, if life were confirmed on mars (as may be the case in the next few weeks http://www.universetoday.com/98576/h...ing-discovery/), I dont think it would have much of an impact on humanity.

Reminds me of this quote by Sir Fred Hoyle:

Quote:
Once a photograph of the Earth, taken from outside, is available – once the sheer isolation of the Earth becomes known – a new idea as powerful as any in history will be let loose.
We have seen the earth from the outside, and that didnt have any meaningful impact on us.

I suspect the same will be true for finding life outside our planet.

Another good one from Carl Sagan: http://arnett.us.com/psc/pbd.html

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The earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and in triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot.

Last edited by Dogpatch06; 11-24-2012 at 19:17..
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Old 11-24-2012, 19:18   #145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OlliesRevenge View Post
A little under 17 million to 1. Of course, this is simple gamblers math. Drum roll for Rabbi to step in...

BUT for any flip, the odds are still 50/50, even for the 25th one and if given a septillion or so chances, it will actually create a lot of occurrences.

Math makes the world understandable in ways most people cant even imagine...but once you really start to "speak" math (as well as us lowly mortal humans can at this point) it does take a lot of the impressivness out of some things that are, to most, pretty awe inspiring.

BUT for any flip, the odds are still 50/50.
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In the world to come, each of us will be called to account for all the good things G-d put on earth which we refused to enjoy. ~ The Babylonian Talmud

Whenever you get mad as hell about it all, grab your rifle and head outside. If you are the only one there...it's not time yet

I cross my heart and hope not to die. Swallow evil, ride the sky. Lose myself in a crowded room. You fool, you fool, it will be here soon

Last edited by Rabbi; 11-24-2012 at 19:20..
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Old 11-24-2012, 19:25   #146
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Quote:
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BUT for any flip, the odds are still 50/50.
No one said they weren't
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Old 11-24-2012, 19:29   #147
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I know it says "extra terrestrial life", but.. It's not that simple.

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Old 11-24-2012, 19:33   #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glocksanity View Post
Shape shifting reptilians have been running this planet for a long long time. Their rule is coming to an end.
What is funny and sad is given your posting history, you may actually think this is true.
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Whenever you get mad as hell about it all, grab your rifle and head outside. If you are the only one there...it's not time yet

I cross my heart and hope not to die. Swallow evil, ride the sky. Lose myself in a crowded room. You fool, you fool, it will be here soon
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Old 11-24-2012, 19:34   #149
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Originally Posted by crossfade View Post
I know it says "extra terrestrial life", but.. It's not that simple.

The Okie Corral
If I am not mistaken, that picture has been shown to be a fraud.

...and one of those people is holding a metal blade.
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In the world to come, each of us will be called to account for all the good things G-d put on earth which we refused to enjoy. ~ The Babylonian Talmud

Whenever you get mad as hell about it all, grab your rifle and head outside. If you are the only one there...it's not time yet

I cross my heart and hope not to die. Swallow evil, ride the sky. Lose myself in a crowded room. You fool, you fool, it will be here soon
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Old 11-24-2012, 19:50   #150
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Quote:
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Just because we are here doesnt necessarily mean it is likely anywhere else. At most it means it is possible.
I disagree but I am making some assumptions. First I am assuming there is nothing remarkable about our star or our planet, though our moon seems to be pretty rare. I am also making the assumption we are here as the result of a natural process and not divine intervention. If you accept those assumptions then the fact that we are here DOES make it likely others are here. If you are talking the whole universe, or even our galaxy, you're talking about billions of planets orbiting billions of stars for billions of years. With that many trials over that much time it seems unlikely the process that produced us was unique. I'll give you it's still a possibility. If they can prove Curiosity has found organic methane on Mars I may change my mind on that.
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